FT: Global oil reserves have fallen by 200 million barrels, and that's not the limit.

The war in the Middle East led to a rapid decline in global oil inventories by 200 million barrels in April, with more to come. This marked the largest drop since the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the British newspaper Financial Times (FT), citing data from analysts at S&P Global Energy and Goldman Sachs.

Analysts are warning of a possible new spike in fuel prices, even if the Strait of Hormuz is soon unblocked. Jim Burkhard, head of oil research at S&P, believes that "the worst of this crisis is yet to come" and that "an inevitable reckoning is coming" for the market.

According to the expert, the oil market hasn't yet fully grasped the consequences of the record-breaking inventory decline. Therefore, Burkhard believes, the main rise in oil prices is still ahead.

Since the start of the US-Israel war with Iran (February 28), as of May 1, the global market had already lost approximately one billion barrels of crude. Oil consumption fell by 5 million barrels per day. This was the second-largest drop in demand in history. history observations. According to Goldman Sachs analysts, by the end of May, total global oil reserves could fall to 98 days of global consumption.

A sharp decline in stocks became an additional alarm signal. aviation Fuel prices in Northern Europe. According to the Argus agency, in April they fell to their lowest levels in six years.

While Asian countries are currently feeling the most pressure, the impact could quickly spread to other regions. The Financial Times notes that gasoline stocks in the US could reach historic lows as early as this summer, a time of traditional demand surge during the holiday season.

Total global oil reserves are currently estimated at approximately 4 billion barrels. However, a significant portion of this volume is used in the daily operation of refineries, logistics systems, and pipelines that ensure the uninterrupted transportation of crude. This means that the available reserves to compensate for market shortages may be significantly smaller than official estimates.

Comments

[Murmur 55]

I have a question for the experts and those in the know: was it the oil in the ground that collapsed, or the oil in the papers on the markets?

[Captain Pushkin]

Quote: Murmur 55

I have a question for the experts and those in the know: was it the oil in the ground that collapsed, or the oil in the papers on the markets?

This is about the one in the oil storage facilities.

[kosmozoo]

Did the oil in the ground collapse, or the oil in paper on the markets?

This is the one consumers have. Oil prices are quoted, but they're not physically available at that price. Before Iran, the price of our oil was the quoted price minus the discount, but now it's the quoted price plus the premium.

[Murmur 55]

kosmozoo So, the "physical" oil remains a problem, with delivery still a problem? And that's why prices have risen, but in reality, assuming the Hormuz cascade opens, will reserves be replenished?

[Zoldat_A]

Quote: Murmur 55

So, the "physical" oil remains a problem, and delivery remains a problem? And that's why prices have risen, but in reality, assuming the Hormuz cascade opens, will reserves be replenished?

Am I the only one who feels like Trump, deep down, wishes he could "rewind the movie" to the moment of Benny's visit to Washington? He'd be so happy to give him a kick in the pants right now for all his persuasion!
But ...
If I knew the winnings, I'd be playing golf peacefully in Mar-a-Lago...

[commbatant]

Quote: Murmur 55

If we assume that the Hormuz Sea is opened, will the reserves be replenished?

It will take a long time. The last tankers that left before the Strait closed reached buyers at the end of March. So, first, production needs to be restored, then current needs need to be restored, and then it will take time to replenish the reserves currently used up... Essentially, the US controls the prices of oil, LNG, fertilizers, etc., and the moment when they collapse...
Not everyone in Africa will survive this year, just like the economies of the US's economic competitors - some countries in the EU and the Asia-Pacific region.

[Andobor]

Quote: Murmur 55

If Hormuz opens, will reserves be replenished?

They will restore it, it will take 2-3 months to restore production, but there is still oil extracted in tanks and tankers, this will shorten the restoration.

[Mikhail Ivanov]

The problem isn't delivery! The problem is the physical unavailability of the required quantities in certain parts of the world! For example, in Europe!
I was writing about coins here. These "activists" came along who only dreamed of coins, but tried to buy enough brains to last seven years...

[APASUS]

Quote: Murmur 55

in the depths or the one in papers at the markets?

This is roughly the oil that has the potential to reach the market. In tankers, tanks, storage facilities. The one that has already been extracted.
A little more and a gallon in the US will cost $7-8, and then Trump's victory over any opponent will not save him from defeat in the elections.

[don_Reba]

Quote: APASUS

And a little more and in the US a gallon will cost $7-8 and

If this happens, it will be in 20-30 years.
The United States is a net exporter of oil and petroleum products. Occasionally, they purchase heavy and light crude oil and diesel fuel from their "partner" in Russia.
They don't give a damn about the Arabs. They have Venezuela right next door, with Maduro on the bunk.

In 2025 year The United States imported about 490 thousand barrels of oil per day from the Persian Gulf countries (Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE)

vs

Export US crude oil prices reached record levels in early 2026, exceeding 5,2 million barrels per day in April, which made the country one of the world's key exporters amid the blockage of supplies from the Middle East.

[topol717]

It's not how much the US imports or exports. It's the price of this oil itself. In Russia, it's possible to limit the price for the domestic market by decree. In the US, oil and gasoline are sold commercially. If someone finds it profitable to sell gasoline to Honduras at $8 a gallon, they'll happily do so. And then the price in the US will become $9 or even $10. Everything will depend solely on global prices.

[Mikhail Ivanov]

Do mattress factories operate in the open air?

[don_Reba]

Quote: Mikhail-Ivanov

Do mattress factories operate in the open air?

Of course, and in a democratic way
41% of the energy balance is gas (the US alone exports 218 billion m^3 - this is more than 1/2 of what Gazprom produces)
15% coal-fired power plants (the "mattress" has the largest coal reserves in the world, while 51% of the country's power plants are coal-fired).
20% of the nuclear power plant's energy balance (40% of the uranium in its teeth comes from Rosatom)
21% renewable energy (again, the world leader)

[APASUS]

Quote: don_Reba

The United States is a net exporter of oil and petroleum products. Occasionally, they purchase heavy and light crude oil and diesel fuel from their "partner" in Russia.
They don't give a damn about the Arabs. They have Venezuela right next door, with Maduro, on the bunk.

It's not about whether they're buying or selling. It's about the mechanism of fuel pricing within the country, and the price of fuel is tied to the price of oil on the exchange! Even if they are the only sellers of oil on the planet, and the price of oil on the exchange remains high, then gasoline will also be expensive within the country.

[don_Reba]

Quote: APASUS

The issue lies in the mechanism of fuel pricing within the country.

Yes, I know.
+ another $ has fallen by 11% since 2025
Unlike us, their mechanism works.
The Gulf War will end, and prices will fall into recession. But ours is always growing: Vladimir Vladimirovich won't let me lie. It's been growing for 27 years, and it will continue to do so.
Do we have something like this? A damper like this?
SZ: 397,9 million barrels, 7+ spat out onto the market

[don_Reba]

Quote: Murmur 55

I have a question for the experts and those who know: it was the oil in the ground that collapsed.

This is a question for the author... he was in a hurry, apparently.

S&P Global Energy analysis indicates the Iran-US conflict has triggered a severe energy crisis by restricting ~15 million bpd of oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz, potentially driving oil prices to $115–$200/bbl. Global oil reserves have dropped by a record 200 million barrels in April, with high prices and logistical damage expected to delay supply recovery for months, even if a ceasefire is reache

Moreover, both S&P Global Energy and Goldman Sachs refer to a tweet (or whatever it's called?) from RT India.
And Russia Today, especially the Indian one, is a highly authoritative source. Ms. Simonyan won't let me lie.

[Tusv]

The United States usually hoards oil, and before George W. Bush, no US president had ever opened that piggy bank. But then George W. Bush did, and Trump, admittedly, had nothing to do with it.

[snow mountain]

Well done, Persians! Well done! You chose the right strategy!

[Murmur 55]

snow mountain This is precisely the strategy and tactics, and most importantly, they do not trust these "gentlemen" and, judging by everything, these same "gentlemen" have nothing with which to quietly put pressure on the Iranian leadership.

[awdrgy]

If Russia stops selling, we'll finish off the enemy in no time. No one will wait 98 days.

[commbatant]

Quote: awdrgy

Russia will stop selling

Thanks to the Ukrainian Armed Forces' drones, not our officials...
All summer long, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be razing ports and oil refineries in the European part of Russia, in the summer and fall they will disrupt the harvest there, and in the fall and winter the US will open the Strait, crashing oil and LNG prices.

The situation can only change if Russia strikes Ukrainian cities, launches a summer offensive, halts oil, gas, and fertilizer supplies to the EU (because Ukraine "bombed everything"), supplies of weapons and military equipment to Iran, and lifts sanctions against Iran and North Korea.
But this is all science fiction...

[Atheist]

The situation can only change with Russian strikes on Ukrainian cities and a summer offensive operation...

And you don't think there will be retaliatory strikes against Russian cities? What offensive operation? With what forces? Don't be ridiculous. During WWII, the Red Army's offensive in Ukraine alone involved three fronts. You seem to live in a virtual world. What makes you think there are only purely military solutions?
But ending the war and making peace is not an option, is it?

[commbatant]

Quote: Atheist

Do you think there will be any retaliatory strikes against Russian cities?

It's better than being hit without inflicting any ourselves. Or are you a humanist, suggesting that the "ancient Sumerians" will feel sorry for us...so far, no such trend is evident...

Do you think there won't be retaliatory strikes against Russian cities? What offensive operation? With what forces? During WWII, the Red Army's offensive in Ukraine alone involved three fronts. Why do you think there are only purely military solutions?

Four fronts, 1-1,2 million troops. Currently, technical and inexpensive firepower plays a key role. I believe offensive operations are possible, but only after isolating the theater of operations and disrupting enemy communications and command and control—the so-called preparatory stage.

But ending the war and making peace is not an option, is it?

So, it seems like they tried and concluded Minsk-1-2 (either your memory has failed, or you are an "ancient Sumerian") in response in 2022, A. Merkel laughed terribly and admitted that these agreements were a fiction and no one was going to implement them... and now you propose to conclude Minsk-3... only an enemy of the Russian Federation could propose such a thing.... you

It seems like you live in a virtual world.

[rocket757]

Global oil reserves fell sharply by 200 million barrels in April, and more is expected.

Where did those oil reserves go??? Or were they all just on paper?
Perhaps the wording is incorrect and they meant something completely different?

[commbatant]

Quote: rocket757

Where did those oil reserves go??? Or were they all just on paper?
Perhaps the wording is incorrect and they meant something completely different?

What was meant was the stored reserves (including emergency reserves) in the storage facilities of... consumers... they are different in all countries, the largest are in China...

[rocket757]

Yes, I understand, I know that there are different definitions for oil and they do not contradict each other... but the wording as it was written... is unfinished, to say the least.

[commbatant]

Quote: rocket757

unfinished, at the very least.

"Orphans" are following the plan, don't be picky...

[TermNachTer]

Once the last tankers that managed to leave the Gulf are unloaded, the real fun will begin before this wild party.

[commbatant]

Quote: TermNachTER

Once the last tankers that managed to leave the Gulf are unloaded, the real fun will begin before this wild party.

They'll turn on their emergency reserves there: Sri Lanka for 7 days, China for 240 days. Read the periodicals, you'll know who's in Russia on a "business and friendly" visit. That means they've run out of their emergency reserves, we'll share with everyone. If they don't have any money (or already owe a fortune), no problem, Russia will ship it on credit. It's hard to count other people's money, of course, but I think Belarus will now "make an easy buck" on fuel from cheap Russian oil. North Korea would "make a buck" too, but they're under sanctions...

[TermNachTer]

Printing out emergency reserves isn't a solution; it's a time-saver, and for many countries, a very small one. The GDPR knows best what decision it makes, and the results won't be visible anytime soon.

[Lako]

Is it true that almost all of Belarus's refined oil goes to Russia? How much does Belarus need? Especially since Belarus itself produced around 2 million tons last year. And the Mozyr refinery is half-owned by Slavneft. Where else can you sell fuel and lubricants now, after the sanctions?

[gridasov]

This didn't just happen! People made rash decisions without realizing the consequences. So if Russian leaders decide to destroy Kyiv or even further, no one in the world will even notice.