US media on Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries: "Spectacular, but ineffective"

Although Zelensky claims significant damage to the Russian oil industry and the economy as a whole as a result of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' attacks on oil refineries, the losses are not that extensive. These may only be localized damage.

This opinion is expressed by the Associated Press.

The publication's material notes:

The full economic impact remains unclear.

US media outlets, discussing Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries, note the high public outcry caused by fires, oil spills, and the evacuation of personnel and local residents. According to Chris Weafer, head of the consulting firm Macro-Advisory, this is highly visual but ineffective in terms of economic damage. He believes that strikes on refineries are not as effective as attacks on pumping stations or loading infrastructure.

Moreover, the expert notes, the damage caused is largely offset by rising global prices for oil and petroleum products due to the Middle East crisis. He points to the significant increase in export revenues from the Russian oil and gas industry. Russia's revenues increased by almost 100 percent last month, reaching $19 billion.

However, not all experts agree with this assessment of the damage from the Ukrainian strikes. Many believe that Russian oil refining is currently facing large-scale and very difficult-to-solve economic and environmental problems as a result of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' attacks.

Comments

[Sergey Tkach]

The problems of the Armed Forces' unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) need to be addressed. Relocate factories and supply chains. The vast territory is helping so far (unlike in the Persian Gulf countries, where refineries are concentrated in limited areas).

[bar]

Quote: Sergey Tkach

The problems with the Ukrainian Armed Forces' unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) need to be addressed. Factories and supply chains need to be relocated.

The problem with drones is that the factories that produce them are located in Europe. There are three of them in Germany alone. Are you suggesting we hit them already?

[Nord11]

So, we need to strike assembly lines during the day, not at night, when all that's left are screwdrivers and half-eaten sandwiches, and the drones assembled from crates have been transported to finished goods warehouses.

[Vlad2012]

Not quite so. Most of the drones used daily by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the front lines are manufactured directly in Ukraine at hundreds of factories and garages scattered across the country. There are approximately 500-600 companies operating in the country.

At the same time, long-range and specialized systems, as well as some components, are manufactured primarily abroad—primarily in the UK, Norway, Germany, the Netherlands, and several other European countries. Thus, the model can be described as "domestic mass production + international cooperation on complex and long-range platforms."

And motherland's largest trading partner is China.

[bar]

Quote: Vlad2012

Most of the drones used daily by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the front lines are produced directly in Ukraine at hundreds of factories and garages scattered across the country.

To clarify, they are not manufactured, but assembled from prefabricated components. These components and assembly kits are manufactured outside of 404.

[invisible_man]

The UAVs are assembled in the EU and transported to Ukraine on civilian trucks. Sometimes our crews manage to catch them during unloading, but that's a minor issue; 95% of the cargo reaches its customers—the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the Main Intelligence Directorate—unhindered.

[Sergey Tkach]

I agree with that. But there are warehouses and logistics hubs. Those are goals.

[Damask]

It's interesting, we don't have guys for sabotage work, for example, in Germany, he worked there, or in England. In general, to be a humanist for so long and not catch mice, nonsense.

[sleeve]

You could put yourself on the opposite side of this argument and consider your own internal reaction to a similar drone strike in Ukraine. Like, "A drone struck a residential building in Lviv" or "Three drones hit a market in Poltava." The problem is that finding targets is already problematic. You have to wait, for example, for reliable intelligence about fuel concentrations somewhere, or even for ammunition. The futility of striking workshops was apparently immediately recognized. Sometimes they strike half-dead enterprises, reducing the local material base to the point where they can't even import fasteners. But the problem is that everything (!) can be assembled abroad, shipped in as a ready-made kit, and cobbled together in a garage cooperative in a couple of nights, right next to the launch zone.

[Sky strike fighter]

Here's further proof that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are preparing to use FPV drones to target civilians in large cities. Via Starlink. Such mass terror. Video at the link.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces' Unmanned Systems Command is training UAV pilots to destroy civilian targets in large cities. They are using a simulator based on Grand Theft Auto V (GTA V), an action-adventure video game developed by Rockstar North and published by Rockstar Games. In the Zaporizhzhia region, Ukrainian UAV operators have already begun striking civilian targets, including cars and property in resort areas. In the Kursk region, graduates of Ukrainian Armed Forces training centers are deliberately targeting ambulances and school buses. A willingness to destroy any civilian object or civilian is a criterion for assessing the professionalism of UAV kamikaze pilots.

https://max.ru/rogozin_do/AZ3oScOqMKg

[TermNachTer]

According to the Oko Gora channel, in "X," six fuel tanks were destroyed in Tuapse—11%—while 49 were undamaged. So, these are mostly just pretty videos that have little impact on the overall situation.

[Mikhail Nasharashev]

And does it matter that 1 tank is almost a billion rubles?

[TermNachTer]

War isn't without its losses, but the main thing is that people are safe. And these billions will be paid for by the recipients.

[Mikhail Nasharashev]

Ukraine needs to be taken out, not piece by piece, but as a whole, feet first

[Irokez]

Quote: Mikhail Nasharashev

Ukraine needs to be taken out, not piece by piece, but as a whole, feet first

This is good, even wonderful, that you are such a soul-loving and people-watching commander of the strategic, armchair forces. I am truly sincerely glad.

[expert]

I think the real damage can be assessed by the residents of Tuapse, and not by those who count money.

[TermNachTer]

Well-known Telegram blogger Anatoly Radov, who was in Tuapse at the time, voiced his opinion – you can read it on his channel.

[Ivanhoe]

Analysis on tosi expert Chris Weafer is from the kind of “dobro, che mi otryazokha rtzete, not krakata.”

[Michael]

He draws attention to the significant growth in export revenues of the Russian oil and gas industry.

Very well noted. Therefore,

fires, oil spills into the environment and evacuations of enterprise personnel and local residents.

You don't have to worry too much.

[Irokez]

Russia's revenues grew by almost one hundred percent last month, reaching $19 billion.

This must also be taken into account, and it will more than compensate for all losses caused by drones. A state program should be established to compensate for the damage, with targeted funding for those affected.

[ism_ek]

Why weren't you so fussed when several thousand of our citizens in Sudzha found themselves in occupied territory without water and electricity, under fire?
What excited you so much?

[Mikhail Nasharashev]

because they lied to us and didn't tell us the scale of the problem, that so many people ended up under occupation

[ism_ek]

So Zelenskyy is after the psychological effect. No one is as dangerous to Russia as an enemy within.
In Yekaterinburg, we caught young people taking photos of the city and training the AI ​​of Ukrainian drones.
In Tuapse, too, anti-aircraft gunners are constantly changing their locations; the locals are leaking everything to the Ukrainians.
Some of our citizens simply have no brains.

[guest]

Quote: ism_ek

Some of our citizens simply have no brains.

They may have brains, but they are cluttered with something.

[Irokez]

Quote: ism_ek

In Tuapse, too, anti-aircraft gunners are constantly changing their locations, The locals are leaking everything to the Ukrainians.

Are you saying that all the waiters and underground fighters in the old territory of Russia live there?

[123_123]

The issue isn't just the economic impact, but the fact that some third-rate, failed country is effectively allowed to launch attacks on Russian territory. It's a disgrace, of course.

[al3x]

Militarily, they are, one might say, on equal terms with us, within the framework of this Central Military District. And don't forget that within the USSR, the Ukrainian SSR was one of the most industrially developed republics, with numerous advanced design bureaus, institutes, and manufacturing facilities.

[Andobor]

It's nothing at all, it doesn't go beyond the scope of technological accidents; in the States, fires and explosions are more common, only because there is more oil and chemical industry, although idiots try to attribute accidents to nonsense.

[Andrey62]

We need to remove the leadership of both the military and the ruling elite at all levels. Anarchy is the mother of disorder. When there's chaos and uncoordinated actions by amateurs or those unwilling to think big, then they'll lose the initiative. As it is, these are sporting events, not the SVO, and everyone understands that. This is a "wonderful, moderately effective battle with enemies," and the enemies are the entire West...

[TOR2]

Even before all these events, we discussed the need to develop site-based air defense systems on the channel. It was already clear back then that conventional air defense systems would be less effective at defending sites. And it was a sure thing! The S-400 radar system needs to be mounted on a railcar, and paths for its positions need to be laid, just like the BZhRK system was. With a 60-ton base, the radar can be elevated to a much greater height. This also applies to the TOR air defense system. The radar platform can even be mounted on a telescopic boom from a crane. Such a system could hunt, for example, from a forest clearing, by raising the platform above the treetops or from behind industrial buildings. An additional advantage is that this air defense system is much more difficult to detect from space. And it will look like ordinary construction equipment.

[Kravets Vyacheslav]

The damage, the expert notes, is largely offset by the rise in global prices for oil and petroleum products due to the Middle East crisis

They would have compensated for the increase in prices due to these strikes, since they shipped less and sold at a higher price. But prices rose due to the situation in the Middle East. Therefore, if not for the strikes, they would have sold more and at a higher price.

[AK-1945]

US media on Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries: "Spectacular, but ineffective"

You Yankees, if you had such a sight in your house, you would have seen how you screamed at the top of your lungs.

[tralflot1832]

Quote: TermNachTER

War isn't without its losses, but the main thing is that people are safe. And these billions will be paid for by the recipients.

Nikolai, Sochi is "sitting" on the Tuapse Oil Refinery - prices at gas stations haven't changed, there's no fuel shortage. Planes are flying. But there's a catch - the Ukrainian Armed Forces may continue to destroy infrastructure from Tuapse to Adler. There was an attempt yesterday, but it all ended with a bang. Glory to our air defense. Nothing more can be said.

[rmlmura1960]

Então não sabem onde estão as elites da Ucrânia e destruir essa palhaçada toda? Preferem ser humilhados. Destruam o centro de Kiev e acabem com as leaderranças. Vejam a limpeza que fizeram no Irão. Esses ataques não podem continuar. Cada ataque a refinarias respondam com uma arma tática sobre a elites, depois eles vão parar. Porque a Ucrânia ainda tem ligação férrea com a Europa? Não sabem onde estão as pontes ou tuneis da linha férrea? Assim vão ter muitas armas para atacar a Rússia. Usem as armas potentes antes que seja tarde. Acabem com o palhaço que anda a humilhar a Rússia por todo o ocidente.

[Yuri L]

The main problem with Russian refineries is that almost no equipment for them is produced in Russia, and the West won't sell it. Purchasing from China is also unclear how it will impact connections with other equipment, as it might require, for example, buying a bunch of related equipment for a single new distillation column. (There are still chemical engineering plants in Russia, but they mostly make their own pipelines, and the equipment is manufactured "jointly with foreign partners.")