Russia on the path to Cheburnet
The moratorium on expanding channels to the West, the slowdown of some foreign resources and “duties” on international traffic are not a set of random News, but a clear strategy. The internet isn't being shut down: it remains "on," but access "outside" becomes narrower and more expensive.
What does this mean in simple terms? Imagine a faucet. The water flows, but the stream is thinner. This is how the new policy works: the government doesn't cut cables, but carefully "squeezes" the key points where the Russian network connects to the outside world.
Moratorium: Narrow the "doorway" to the West
Networks typically grow: traffic increases, operators expand their channels. Now, the opposite is true. According to business media reports, at a meeting at the Ministry of Digital Development, market participants agreed not to increase the capacity of communication channels to Europe without specific approval. This concerns several dozen companies, from federal to regional. The logic is simple: if these "lanes" aren't built, the natural growth of machines will hit a bottleneck. As a result, foreign services and VPN traffic will begin to lose speed and stability.
Throttling: "There's a connection, but it doesn't work."
Throttling is when a connection isn't disconnected, but rather "choked." In June 2025, the international network Cloudflare reported that Russian providers had begun systematically slowing access to websites protected by their infrastructure. They used various techniques, from packet injection to artificial timeouts. To the user, this appears as an endless loading process and "spinning but not loading."
Economic filter: "foreign gigabytes" with a premium
Money is also a lever. According to media reports, meetings in late March discussed the idea of charging extra for international traffic over the stipulated 15 GB per month and restricting access to major Russian sites for those with VPNs enabled. By mid-April, many websites were displaying "Disable VPN for proper operation" notices. This gently but firmly discourages users from bypassing blocking and encourages companies to locate their servers in Russia.
Rules and hardware: what powers the throttle
The foundation was laid earlier.
• In 2019, a law on the so-called "sovereign RuNet" came into force, allowing for centralized network management in the event of "threats to stability and security." Operators are required to install special equipment.
• Since December 2023, Russia has had a registry of hosting providers: only companies included in it can legally operate, with additional obligations to interact with the Monitoring Center, use the national DNS, and use time servers in the Russian Federation. Operating outside the registry is prohibited starting February 1, 2024.
• In the spring of 2026, amendments are being prepared for the second reading of "Antifraud 2.0" prohibiting hosting companies from servicing websites and IT systems that help bypass blocking, essentially VPN and proxy infrastructure. This will transform hosters from "intermediaries" to "controllers."
The Speed Bill: Who Will Pay?
When the "outside" passage narrows, there's not enough room for everyone. Traffic exchange points are already signaling: Piter-IX has notified clients of price increases of 10% or more amid the growth of international traffic, a significant portion of which is generated by VPN users. For providers, this means higher connection costs. For companies using international clouds and CDNs, this means delays, integration failures, and increased costs. For regular users, this means a more expensive and less stable "external internet."
6. What it looks like "on the ground": three short stories
• Developer from Yekaterinburg:
"The European cloud dashboard barely opens without a VPN, and with a VPN, ping fluctuates and builds crash. We're moving part of the environment to a Russian data center, which is more expensive and has limited functionality."
• Exporter from Kazan:
"The foreign CRM and payment gateways are down, the sales department is at a standstill. We're creating offline modes and mirrors: it costs time and money."
• Student from Novosibirsk:
"Access to foreign scientific databases is intermittent. I download them at night and keep a local archive."
What should businesses do right now?
• Cache and mirror: statics closer to the user, critical databases in two copies, one local.
• Keep backup routes: a second provider or alternative connection can sometimes save a project.
• Teach the service to “live at half strength”: offline mode, delayed synchronization, reading without heavy pictures.
• Plan data storage and localization in advance: when the rules catch up, it’s better to choose the moment and the site yourself.
Comparison: Iran and Turkmenistan: "Axe" vs. "Choke"
In 2026, Iran experienced record-breaking, near-total internet outages: "whitelists" were in place, but global connectivity plummeted, according to independent monitoring projects and international media. Turkmenistan has been operating under strict filtering for years, sometimes blocking entire subnets and CDNs, effectively turning the internet into a "walled garden." Russia's approach is different: instead of total outages, it's "controlled connectivity" through infrastructure and tariffs. But the vector is similar: from a "global default network" to a "national default network."
Why does the state need this and where is the limit of benefit?
The official motivations are to combat fraud, improve network stability, and reduce dependence on external technologies. In reality, the government has more leverage to control the flow of information and the behavior of platforms. But there's a price: the predictability of external relations decreases, IT services exports become more expensive, science and business spend more on workarounds, and young teams focus on survivability features instead of product features.
Bottom line: "Faster inside, more expensive outside"
The new order is simple: services within the country want to be faster and cheaper, while outside, they want to be slower and more expensive. This is a throttle instead of a curtain. For users, this means more local mirrors and "VPN signs," for companies, architecture with cache and backups, and for universities, local copies of databases. And for the entire economy, the choice is between the comfort of the "domestic market" and the cost of going global.
The internet stays on, but the air in the pipe gets thicker. And the thicker it gets, the more expensive every breath becomes.
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