Is a new freeze on Russia's oil revenues possible? Experts are discussing the issue.

Against the backdrop of high Russian oil prices (Urals is currently trading at $120 per barrel, more than twice the budget cutoff), the question of whether this situation poses any pitfalls for our country is being discussed. The main question is whether all these recorded excess profits could, as in the past, suddenly end up frozen in the accounts of Western "partners."

Russian financial experts are largely confident that the likelihood of these funds being frozen is "close to zero." Their main argument is that all proceeds from current Russian oil sales are located outside the G7's jurisdiction.

India, Turkey, Brazil, China, and Vietnam, which actively purchase oil from Russia, have not joined the freeze on Russian assets and continue to buy oil precisely because it is the most accessible to them – against the backdrop of the loss of access to oil from the Persian Gulf countries.

With India, things are actually quite complicated. It's trying to "navigate the raindrops," convincing Russia of its readiness to pay on time while simultaneously sending a message to Washington that it is complying with the American-imposed sanctions. The result is a scheme involving third currencies (TC), which are used for the double conversion process of the rupee to TC, and TC to the Russian ruble. This way, the transactions are sanction-free.

The West can apply secondary sanctions to specific banks (as has already happened with Turkish and Indian ones), but this only leads to a change in intermediaries, and does not lead to a halt in trade.

Russia, as Western media have already reported, has developed various schemes, including those involving alternative payment systems (SPFS, Chinese CIPS, and cryptocurrencies). Therefore, freezing Russia's oil profits now appears virtually impossible. At least, that's the current assessment from financial analysts from Moscow to Brussels.

Comments

[know]

Considering that Putin carefully keeps the same people in high (and the same) positions who have already transferred more than 300 billion dollars to the West, nothing is impossible.

[yuriy55]

Quote: vet

Considering that Putin carefully keeps the same people in high (and the same) positions

I know for sure: the impossible is possible.

[Romario_Argo]

The Russian Federation's annual budget revenues from oil and gas are approximately 4 trillion rub.
but the income from mineral extraction tax, personal income tax, VAT, taxpayer tax, simplified tax system, and professional income tax within the Russian Federation exceeds 30 trillion rub.
and also Rosatom, Metal (aluminum, titanium), fertilizers and agricultural products, etc., etc.
Russia doesn't care - Russia may not export ANYTHING to the EU at all.

[Romario_Argo]

Mineral extraction tax - 8 trillion, VAT - 15 trillion, profit tax - 1 trillion, personal income tax - 6 trillion = 30 trillion rubles.
and revenues from oil and gas exports minus mineral extraction tax - 4 trillion
and NOT oil and gas revenues of the Russian budget - 16 trillion
total 50 trillion rubles
10 trillion in expenses/spending were classified - that's why there is a deficit

[Romario_Argo]

The federal budget alone is around 50 trillion rubles per year.
There is also the budget of the Russian Ministry of Finance, which is over 40 trillion rubles per year.
- the media generally tries not to see this

[Igor M.]

Romario_Argo, they write that it's twice as much:

January 19, 2026 — By the end of 2025, oil and gas revenues in the Russian federal budget amounted to 8,5 trillion rubles. This is 24% less than in 2024.

[Romario_Argo]

The mineral extraction tax (MET) of 8 trillion rubles is revenue from production without exports, but also including domestic consumption of gas and oil.

[Igor M.]

Firstly, the vet wasn't handed over, and the West blocked it. So the funds remain ours, but they're not being returned to us. I can return them after the end of the military operation.
Secondly, in response, we also blocked Western assets in Russia. And we even forcibly sold some for rubles.

[Murmur 55]

These experts are such experts.

[rocket757]

The impossible is possible... or is it?
This is a topic for predictions/fortune telling!
By the way, it all comes down to who the average person/citizens of the country trust. Who do the rich Pinocchios trust... who do the foreign "partners" trust...
Again a question of faith/trust!?

[Vladislav_V]

Quote: rocket757

Again a question of faith/trust!?

It's not a question of trust, it's a question of whether the West can continue to control oil flows. Rob them, control them with the help of banks, the army, terrorists, and pirates! The world is changing before our eyes, Victor! And we are the ones changing it! The main thing is not to choke on the attack and not to succumb to any provocations in an attempt to drag us into a world war.

[rocket757]

The fact that the West only robs, and robs EVERYONE they can reach... is undeniable.
But how to ensure they can't reach you is a complex question! Moreover, faith and trust from those involved in the process are desirable and necessary.
Nothing is simple, nothing works... everything has been like this for a long time now.

[Romario_Argo]

In Russia, every ruble is backed by 1 gram of gold.
Moreover, 1 gram of gold costs 11500 rubles.
The US national debt has reduced the US gold reserves to $5000 per gram of gold out of 8000 tons.
This doesn't include the dollars printed all over the planet.
If we apply this to the entire money supply of dollars, then 1 gram of gold will cost $15000
USA ARE POOR

[rocket757]

For striped people, the topic of securing their money/bucks with gold, for example, is a question... well, not a question at all, they immediately start grabbing the "pistol", and are even ready to "caress" with something more substantial!

[Romario_Argo]

The mass of cash rubles in the Russian Federation is about 18 trillion rubles.
Not to be confused with all obligations amounting to 131 trillion rubles.
+ 2300 tons of gold in the Central Bank, 1000 tons of monetary gold in the Central Bank, 1800 tons in the State Depository for Precious Metals and Gems
= 5000 tons * 11500 / 18 trillion = coefficient 2,7
Roughly speaking, 1 paper ruble is worth almost 2,8 gold rubles.
* even if we take the calculation based on 3000 tons of gold, we get a coefficient of 1,6
i.e. without taking into account the stock in Gokhran
in fact, 1 ruble = 1 gram of gold

[former soldier]

There's only one way out. Cash oil can be exchanged at our ports for cash dollars and euros, or better yet, for gold briquettes.

[Solomon_BY]

Great offer - I need to think about it quickly!

[SmolH2]

That won't happen; there are complex, multi-stage payments involved. There are deferments and different currencies. We're just one of many sellers, after all. And not the most convenient ones. We just need to choose our partners wisely and spell out penalties.

[fruc]

all this recorded excess profit may, as in the old days, be frozen overnight

Not inclined to believe anything, especially in the last 30 years.

[Ed Mac]

It's no coincidence that this issue has been raised, as Trump's sanctions imposed six months ago included a freeze. The US has enforcement mechanisms, and they generally work effectively, so they can freeze them.

[tralflot1832]

With oil prices at this level, even a "scheme" involving Russian ruble loans for the purchase of Russian oil is possible. And the West won't be able to find fault. But this is only for trusted partners.

[tralflot1832]

By the way, this information is from the "Cruid Oil Price" website (the red one) before they banned me last year. Russophobes aside, it was very informative. I learned a lot.

[musorg]

Apparently, they stepped on the rake once and it wasn't enough! And the fact that it's impossible to freeze is just an expert assessment.

[Flooding]

I imagine those same experts would be saying "it's impossible" in 2021.
After all, many things seem impossible until they happen for the first time.

[Retired senior lieutenant]

As far as I know, gas supplies and payments to Gazprom via pipelines are made only under long-term contracts, with monthly payments by the buyer based on prices averaged over the previous nine months. I believe a similar payment scheme is also applicable in this case for oil supplies. When shipping hydrocarbon resources by tanker or gas carrier, given the short loading time into ship's tanks, it is possible to apply the rule of releasing the vessel from the loading port only upon 100% payment for the goods, according to the same pricing scheme. And the contracts are concluded by our supplier companies, licensed to conduct such financial transactions by the relevant government agencies. Of course, there's always a black sheep in every family, but the reliable trading system of liquefied gas producers has demonstrated the effectiveness of existing shipping schemes under reliable oversight by the relevant government financial and production agencies.

[Fitter65]

Russian financial experts are largely confident that the likelihood of these funds being frozen is "close to zero." Their main argument is that all proceeds from current Russian oil sales are located outside the G7's jurisdiction.

Are we really transferring everything to Mongolian banks, into highly convertible tugriks?

[Igor M.]

Fitter65, you can even transfer money to Mongolia in rubles, even from sanctioned banks. I have an employee there, and I paid him in rubles.

[Fitter65]

Quote: Igor M.

You can even transfer money to Mongolia in rubles.

It's possible. But why is the ruble five times more valuable than the tugrik in Mongolia? Wood is very expensive in Mongolia, especially firewood, which is why the ruble is so valuable, and the tugrik is tied to meat and dairy products, of which there's more in the Mongolian People's Republic than firewood in Russia. What if we pay the Mongolian People's Republic in lumber instead of rubles? Then we'll flood all of Russia with cheap meat... Although that won't work; the people of the Urals won't allow it.

Quote: Igor M.

I have an employee there, I paid him in rubles.

From Cyprus, or from boring Asia...

[Igor M.]

Fitter65, a local employee, is Mongolian. She studied in St. Petersburg and speaks Russian quite well.

[Jacques sekavar]

Experts doubt the likelihood of a new freeze on Russia's oil revenues?