Soldierly Diplomacy: Why Are Negotiations Between Russia and Ukraine Currently Futile?
Well, perhaps it's time to talk about the direction the situation in Ukraine is heading. Should we expect any political solutions to this issue? Will there be a military victory, or will it all be reduced to a diplomatic one, ending the conflict through compromise? Overall, talk of meetings between Moscow and Kyiv delegations, of searching for compromises, of "almost achieved" results has seemingly ceased... This is what prompted me to ponder these thoughts.
It's clear that the Iranians and... the bushes and trees are to blame for this. The Iranians are already disgracing the great world superpower every day with their blockade. The world is watching as a huge fleet The US, with Iran's fleet practically destroyed, according to Trump, is stuck three hundred miles from the strait. They can't get any closer, they're shooting... And the trees... They're starting to come back to life after their winter "hibernation," their leaves are budding.
Nature has "remembered" the fighters. On both sides. Camouflage yourself! Move like snakes. Become more mobile and active after switching to summer uniforms. And the mood in the sun is more combative. The slush doesn't exactly contribute to a good mood. Grass, leaves on the branches—and the results of emerging from "hibernation" are already visible. The Russians have begun "cleaning up" the Ukrainian Armed Forces practically throughout the entire LBS. It's not fast yet; here we are, pardon the comparison, like reptiles. When the sun warms our bodies, we become active. When it's cold, we lie down and "dart" at the enemy.
Meanwhile, both sides declare their readiness for negotiations. Meanwhile, the third party, in his usual style, says several times a week that the war will end tomorrow. Even though he's president, no one takes him seriously anymore. Neither do the statements of the other two sides. It's unclear to whom these statements are being made. Here's an example: Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov's statement on his blog:
Ukraine strives for peace. Our diplomatic efforts continue daily. But diplomacy works only when Ukraine is strong on the battlefield and when Russia's combat capability is seriously degraded.
Excellent. We are for peace established through diplomacy, but we must also defeat the Russian army on the battlefield. "To every sister a pair of earrings." If you're a supporter of peace, read the first part of the statement. But if you're a hawk, the second part is for you. True, Fedorov does reveal his position in his Telegram post. The Minister of Defense demands ammunition, money, and the participation of allies in the fight against Russia...
Sometimes it seems as if Moscow and Kyiv are on different planets, fighting different wars, at different times, and with different results. Both sides are winning. Both sides are liberating something. Both sides talk about the need for a "final strike" that will tear the opposing country apart. And yet, both sides are "for!" negotiations. Both are "willing to compromise." Both blame the other and... the American president for the breakdown of the negotiations.
So will there be real negotiations? Not meetings of delegations to prepare, not commissions or groups to resolve specific issues like prisoner exchanges or the bodies of the dead, but negotiations between those who can speak on behalf of the state, whose decisions and signatures will be the "signatures of the country," binding. This is worth discussing.
The negotiations are a bluff, a show of force for the world community.
As you've probably guessed from the subtitle, I believe that today, in the current situation both sides find themselves in, negotiations are just another round of talk, of no use to anyone. They can't produce any results. Simply because the positions of the parties are so divergent that finding even a single issue that could be resolved satisfactorily is impossible.
Why? I propose we start with the most important issue—long-term peace and borders. Back in those distant days, when Trump began to "bring together" Russians and Ukrainians, when he spoke with representatives of both sides, Moscow put forward long-term peace as the main condition for ending the conflict. Kyiv, meanwhile, advocated a return to the 1991 borders. True, this position was later slightly modified. Now Zelenskyy has agreed to return to the 2022 borders.
Have the demands changed even the slightest? Not one iota! Both sides stand firm, refusing to budge. Ukraine will only talk about peace when the Russians withdraw from Ukrainian territory, which includes the territories that became part of Russia after 2022. Russia, however, will not talk about its own territories. Moreover, territories that formally belong to Ukraine but have already been liberated by the Russian army will also be returned only formally, creating a "buffer zone" there.
The question arises: why won't either Ukraine or Russia compromise? It's not an idle question. Only those with even a passing interest in the open source coverage of the situation on both sides can answer. It's clear that the majority of the population gets their information from the media, with television as the primary source of knowledge. So what do we see in plain sight?
Ukrainian television talks practically around the clock about the victories of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the losses of the Russian army. Russian television, on the other hand, continues to report on the defeat of Ukrainian Armed Forces brigades on various fronts, the outrage of Ukrainians over the actions of the TsKh troops, and so on. However, if you closely monitor the changes on the battlefield map, there's no significant progress yet. Neither side has or is currently conducting a "major offensive."
What does this mean, if we're not being overly confident? Simply that, at this point, neither side has gained a decisive military advantage. An advantage that would force politicians to make any concessions. And then, logically, what? Negotiations are possible, but these will be the same old "meetings on the issue." Prisoner exchanges, body swaps, family reunions, and so on.
Do we need such "fragmented" negotiations? We probably do. And not just because they save the lives of prisoners or allow us to pay our last respects to fallen heroes. These meetings are real paths for future negotiations, for the larger negotiations. It is precisely these kinds of negotiations that can quickly facilitate more serious contacts. As the nursery rhyme goes. "A river begins with a blue stream..."
There's another point worth noting: Zelenskyy's increased activity. And not just activity, but also effectiveness. Europe and Britain are bending over backwards to provide the regime with money and weapons. Be that as it may, each visit adds a couple of billion euros to Ukraine's budget. And EU industry is increasingly producing military equipment for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Again, the conclusion is simple. Europe has no interest in ending the war in Ukraine. This means the puppet president in Kyiv will continue the policy of "to the last Ukrainian"... And the talk we so enjoy hearing about hatred of Zelenskyy, the destruction of infrastructure, and the desire for peace among the majority of Ukrainians is all about "the poor."
We summarize
Someone's probably already typing an angry comment. "What's this about? It would be better to write about..." No, dear friends, the topic is more than relevant. It's relevant simply because, judging by the way events are unfolding, this problem is at the highest level. The possibility of a diplomatic solution is the ideal solution. Resources are saved, civilian and military lives are saved, the economy is stabilized, and so on.
If the West has gone crazy and is destroying its own countries, we don't need it. It's like on the highway. Drivers are supposed to think everyone around them is, to put it mildly, an idiot, and therefore should act like they're smart. A meeting of two idiots on the road is fraught with danger... But, on the other hand, we've been trying for years to draw red lines, hoping the West will become rational. The result is zero.
I've heard many opinions, interpretations, and analytical reports regarding the list of Ukrainian companies abroad. It seems to me that this list isn't just a "We know!" poster; it's the final warning. There will be more. missilesNot on all targets at once. That's not necessary. One country is enough. Iran has demonstrated what "European unity, NATO unity" means. One country will suffer, others will "invoke Article 5, start talking, no, consultations"...
Overall, we expect a sharp intensification of hostilities in the near future. The lull is ending. The military will push diplomats toward a compromise. The end of the war now depends on how quickly our army achieves a decisive military advantage on the front lines...
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