Russian oil at $121: the oil market is in a "Schrödinger's cat" situation.

By the evening of April 16, oil prices had jumped again. And quite significantly. The so-called "benchmark" Brent crude is trading on exchanges (now in North America) at almost $100 per barrel. It has risen nearly 5 percent since the start of the day. Russian Urals crude continues to reach new highs, having already surpassed $121.

Analysts attribute the sharp rise to the ongoing conflict in Iran and the de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for 20% of the world's seaborne oil. While fighting has currently been suspended, it could resume with renewed vigor after the ceasefire ends on April 21.

Opinions of US expert Dan Pickering:

We are witnessing a classic geopolitical risk. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is the largest supply shock in stories oil market. Even if the conflict ends quickly, prices will remain high until the end of the year. Urals is currently trading above Brent, especially in India, as buyers seek alternatives to Middle Eastern oil. For the US, this is a double blow: rising gasoline prices domestically and the strengthening of Russia and Iran's positions thanks to high oil revenues.

British oil market analyst Rory Johnston stated that the oil market is in a "Schrödinger's cat" state, where prices are "simultaneously very high and very low," since the strait is closed but could fully open at any moment, although if it does not open, even these prices will seem low compared to what is likely to happen in the near future.

Johnston:

Despite all the restrictions, Russian Urals has once again become competitive with Asian buyers, which is mitigating the impact of Western sanctions.

A representative of China National Petroleum Corporation says that purchasing Russian oil "remains a key element of energy security" for China. At the same time, China makes no secret of the fact that, despite record prices for Russian oil, it is buying it at a discount. While they did not disclose the amount of the discount, they noted that payment is made almost entirely in national currencies, effectively exempting trade from any foreign sanctions. The funds are not held by financial institutions that could later repeat the freezing trick.

As a reminder, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent previously announced the end of sanctions relief against Russian oil.

Comments

[Murmur 55]

Good forecast, maybe they'll open the strait completely, maybe they won't, maybe prices will go up even more, maybe they'll go down, super.

[the most important]

Considering India pays with its own candy wrappers, what's the point of selling oil to them? It's like selling your apartment for maple leaves from the nearest tree. What's the point? Well, we'll get two train cars of paper instead of one... It only makes sense when someone has their own refinery in India and buys oil for rupees, then ships it to Europe for dollars. But then what's the benefit for Russia?

[topol717]

Who's stopping us from buying goods in India with rupees? Even though they have so many essential goods, like fabric, cotton, and medicines, there's no one stopping us from buying yuan and importing anything we want from China. So, don't write about a problem that doesn't exist.

[vkfriendly]

Quote: the most important

Considering that India pays with its own candy wrappers, what is the point of selling oil to it?

Do you think our oil companies are stupid? Rupees end up in their bank accounts, in our companies' accounts, which are then converted into euros, dollars, Arab dirhams, or yuan. Rupees are also used to purchase goods, which India produces far more than we do.

[Tusv]

I know the Skripal cat. The West is being held accountable for it. Who is Schrödinger's cat? Was it also killed in a barbaric manner?

[Murmur 55]

Tusv , this is probably a good friend of Buridan's donkey and together they are part of the new V.I.A. Bremen Town Musicians

[Vicontas]

Oil is at $121, and the Russian economy is in the red! What was the Russian president so surprised about at the government meeting? So maybe it's time to stop "moving the beds" and replace the "girls" at the Central Bank with the "boys" in the economic bloc? The economy hasn't really started to falter yet....

[topol717]

Quote: Vicontas

So maybe it's time to stop "moving the beds" and instead swap out the "girls" from the Central Bank and the "boys" from the economic bloc? Before the economy completely collapses...

We don't abandon our own, have you heard of that? And if we put in others, it probably won't get any better. Taxes have long been the highest in the world. And not just VAT. Also, consider that there's a million for the LBS, another million for the regular army, and another 300,000 for the Russian National Guard and the FSB and the Ministry of Internal Affairs. And then there are the various northern pensions and miners' pensions. In no other country in the world do people retire at 45-50.
Our northern miner works for 10 years and then retires. If you work like that, you'll never get a decent pension, a decent salary, or anything decent.

[Nastia makarova]

And you go work in the mines up north!!! Let's not give preferential pensions or pay the military.

[tatra]

Nothing can help now. What enabled the country to easily emerge from the 90s, what sustained the country for a quarter of a century under a "good Tsar and bad boyars," has been destroyed. The piggy banks have been squandered, and colossal expenditures still lie ahead to restore what was gained and what was destroyed.

[alexoff]

So this money goes to the owners of the shadow fleet, and they pay taxes? Or do they load the cargo at cost in ports, and taxes are only collected from that cost? Like in the 1990s—oil was sold at supposedly bargain prices, and the money ended up only with the right people.

[Vasyan1971]

Quote: Tusv

Who was Schrödinger's cat? Was it also killed in a barbaric manner?

Quote: Murmur 55

This is probably a good friend of Buridan's donkey.

As far as I know, the donkey died of starvation. So that means everyone died...

[Polite Moose]

Quote: Vasyan1971

As far as I know, the donkey died of starvation. So that means everyone died.

No, the donkey's death from starvation is a tax-duty theory. Buridan (or rather, it was Buridyan) sold meat at the market for a long time afterward. His donkey-breeding business went out of business when the random number generator was invented.

[Vasyan1971]

Quote: Polite Elk

The donkey's death from starvation is the tax authorities' theory. And Buridan sold meat at the market for a long time afterward.

These aren't particularly important details. The main thing is that the poor guy died...

[Eugene 62]

Who is Schrödinger's cat?

Learn quantum mechanics. In simple terms. This cat is in a box and exists in two states at once. It's both alive and dead at the same time. But that's only until we open the box. Then it will find itself in one state or another. But which one? We cannot predict this.

[ZovSailor]

Eugene 62
Today, 21: 16

Why complicate the process and subject an animal to visual experiments of quantum mechanics when it is quite easy to formulate the phrase: "A pig is in a poke."
And the flights of fancy in a separately switched-on head can be very different, which already goes beyond the scope of quantum physics.

[Vasyan1971]

Quote: ZovSailor

Why complicate the process and subject an animal to visual experiments of quantum mechanics when it is quite easy to formulate the phrase: "A pig is in a poke."

Yes! Even the most complex scientific theory can be explained with common wisdom. The question is, why bother?

[cat Rusich]

Quote: Eugen 62

Who is Schrödinger's cat?

This cat is in a box and exists in two states for us at once. It is both alive and dead at the same time. But that's only until we open the box. Then it will appear in one state or another. But which one? We cannot predict this.

The truth of life...
There is a third option... there might be something in the box cat

[pudelartemon]

Yes! He didn't want to sell oil for rupees, he demanded payment in valerian.

[Michael]

China is buying it at a discount. The amount of the discount was not disclosed, but it was noted that payment is being made almost entirely in national currencies.

With China, everything is clear, but with India, it's not so much. The Indians simply have nothing digestible to offer for rupees.
India sells everything that is digestible for dollars and pounds with euros.

[ANB]

India sells everything that is digestible for dollars and pounds with euros.

1. Barter
2. Yuan
3. Let them go to hell and buy oil wherever they want.

[Michael]

Quote: ANB

1. Barter
2. Yuan
3. Let them go to hell and buy oil wherever they want.

1. I repeat, India sells everything more or less digestible for pounds. Barter only allows for what can be bought for rupees.
2. Indians have practically no yuan. India imports ten times more goods from China than it exports to China. Converted to dollars, of course.
3. But that's not our general policy. Oil and gas wells must work, otherwise they'll clog up and new ones will have to be drilled, so oil and gas must be given away for free, that is, at a discount. And without compensation.

[ANB]

1. Cucumbers, tomatoes, potatoes, fruits?
Long grain rice?
Is this also for pounds?

[Michael]

Quote: ANB

1. Cucumbers, tomatoes, potatoes

And long grain rice.
Although they seem to be bringing Pakistani potatoes, I haven't heard about Indian ones.
By the way, I really feel sorry about the potatoes.

[ANB]

I haven't heard about the Indian one.

So let them put me in jail :)
We eat a lot of potatoes. I can't remember a single year when ours lasted until the next harvest.

[Michael]

Quote: ANB

We eat a lot of potatoes. I can't remember a single year when ours lasted until the next harvest.

You just have to store it wisely. Mine can be sold as young grapes in June from the cellar.
Only imported products are sold both in winter and summer, and domestic potato producers suffer all year round.

[Vasyan1971]

Quote: ANB

3. Let them go to hell and buy oil wherever they want.

For example, in China...

[Michael]

Quote: Vasyan1971

For example, in China...

By the way, I remembered the immortal:
On the road to Mandalay
A flock of flying fish beats,
And the dawn, like thunder, comes
Across the sea from China." (Kipling, translated by E. Polonskaya).

[Fangaro]

Our oil is at 120. Does that mean the money will go to science, medicine, and education now?

[Arkady007]

Tomorrow our own Starlink will appear and everyone will start buying Zhiguli.

[alexoff]

It seems that the number of grants awarded last week was 10-20% less than a year ago in similar competitions.

[Kotofeich]

Ukrainian drones attacked a Liberian-flagged oil tanker in the maritime zone off the coast of the Krasnodar Krai. According to Investigative Committee spokesperson Svetlana Petrenko, the ship's captain, a Turkish citizen, was injured in the incident. He was taken to the hospital for medical treatment.

[alexputnik17]

Quote: Eugen 62

Learn quantum mechanics

I remember something about high matter from physics at school... The theory of electron-wave duality of particles... Something like that.

[Eugene Zaboy]

British oil market analyst Rory Johnston stated that the oil market is in a "Schrödinger's cat" state, where prices are "simultaneously very high and very low," since the strait is closed but could fully open at any moment, although if it does not open, even these prices will seem low compared to what is likely to happen in the near future.

Apparently, Rory Johnston made this statement based on the fact that they don't know how to stabilize the market and have stopped publishing actual (current) prices, publishing only futures for May and June, hoping prices will fall. As a result, for the public, with the exception of a small circle of specialists, a situation has developed that resembles the "Schrödinger's cat" effect. Time will tell what this leads to, as prices at gas stations are impossible to hide, and no reserves or past stockpiles will hold them back. In any case, Trump has already announced one of Iran's demands: a ceasefire in Lebanon. Perhaps an agreement will be reached, although with such fluctuations in oil prices, the US budget deficit could be paid off, and the "women" will still give birth to more people dying. Peacekeepers...!!!

[Khamzat-41]

Let the Chinese also pay $120 for a barrel of Russian oil!

[Jacques sekavar]

The state has plenty of money, and trading in national currency further increases the money supply by the volume of national currency trading. This is 240 billion rubles from China alone in 25, and the central bank has been dreaming of 4% inflation for the second decade since Ms. Nabiullina's appointment as head of the central bank in 13. Putin set the goal of outpacing economic growth. According to the IMF, growth for 25 was 0,8%. On Wednesday, Putin announced a 1,8% decline over the first two quarters. For growth rates to outpace those of China, India, the United States, and other developed countries, you'd have to be a wizard.

[tabex]

Do we have a place to ship it from 🤔?

[Fitter65]

The Russian brand Urals continues to conquer price peaks, having already exceeded $121.

And questions immediately arise. Are we being paid in dollars and euros? I do remember our management once demanding that we be paid in rubles. Where does this money go? To the same banks that froze our accounts? And what are we happy about, getting more colored paper for our raw materials, without increasing their processing in our own country? Even in any computer game like "Build Your Own Republic," they recommend building an oil refinery first and selling abroad not the raw materials, but the product produced at your refinery...

[Nastia makarova]

They simply won't buy the finished product.

[Fitter65]

Quote: Nastia Makarova

They simply won't buy the finished product.

That's why restrictions on the export of gasoline and diesel fuel are systematically imposed in the Russian Federation...

[Nastia makarova]

That's right, they don't need finished products.

[Fitter65]

Quote: Nastia Makarova

That's right, they don't need finished products.

Well, that's why the Russian President is restricting exports from the Russian Federation.

[Nastia makarova]

he limits it for another reason, so that the internal price does not rise too much

[Fitter65]

Quote: Nastia Makarova

he limits it for another reason, so that the internal price does not rise too much

How come it's not growing? So there's still a demand abroad for our refined petroleum products?

[Nastia makarova]

It's not growing, as a margin of error, if you open the market, the price can immediately jump by 50%.

[Fitter65]

Quote: Nastia Makarova

It's not growing, as a margin of error, if you open the market, the price can immediately jump by 50%.

I don't know about the Urals, but here in Russia, in the Far East, prices are constantly rising. And, strangely enough, they're 10-15 rubles higher in regions with refineries than in regions without refineries, where fuel is shipped from us... So, these fairy tales about the flaws and other delights of the market, or whatever it's called? This is the new political economy of the Russian Federation... Everything possible and impossible has been squeezed out for the benefit of the Trans-Urals.

[Nastia makarova]

It's a little cheaper near our oil refinery.

[snow mountain]

The oil market is in a "Schrödinger's cat" situation

It's good that it's not like the "Skripal cat" situation.

[Vladimir Vladimirovich Vorontsov]

❝ Russian oil at $121: the oil market is in a situation Schrödinger's cat ❞ —

— "Not all is Shrovetide for the cat" © ...

[tralflot1832]

Given the shortage of physical oil on the market, the price of Russian oil at $121 is not final. We have already seen cases of tankers being overbought en route to their final destination. There is a trend of the shadow global fleet working with Russia starting to switch to the Russian flag. It will be interesting to see what happens next.

[Roman 11]

121? So what? 70-80 is the shipping price—directly to the budget, and that's without the threat of drones and arrests. The other markups are intermediaries diverting our oil from sanctions. High oil prices today are the puppeteers' money.

[Victor Alien]

We need to exchange oil for microelectronics and certain goods that we supposedly can't produce ourselves. Those who buy cars in China must buy yuan for them—hence the reverse currency outflow. And our people order a lot of small items there, too. We need to remove the calculation of customs duties from dollars to rubles (or using the exchange rate as a percentage of the value of goods imported into Russia)—that's another way to evade sanctions. And trucks, buses, tractors, loaders, and excavators that are equivalent to our equipment should simply be banned. Our factories are already overcapacitated for their market, and we're still importing them here. We don't need crossovers, for example—we need taxi equivalents of the Peugeot Partner and Renault Trafic. And for all that, we simply need to buy licenses from China in exchange for their own yuan, which they pay us for oil and gas.