The IMF has improved its forecast for Russia's GDP growth for the current year.

The International Monetary Fund has released a new forecast that hardly fits the narrative of a "sanctions-ravaged economy." The organization has raised its estimate for Russia's GDP growth in 2026 from 0,8% to 1,1%. The reason: rising commodity prices, including oil. The IMF also projects 1,1% for 2027.

The Russian economy, contrary to all pessimistic predictions, grew by 1%. This isn't a record figure, but under unprecedented sanctions pressure, it's more than significant.

Inflation, the Central Bank's main headache, is gradually fading. In 2025, it reached 8,7%. However, the IMF forecasts it will decline to 4,3% as early as 2027. The target is still a long way off, but the trend is encouraging.

The labor market deserves special attention. The unemployment rate in Russia will be 2,4% this year. This compares to 2,2% last year. This figure is practically a record low—most G7 countries can only dream of such a low. In 2027, the fund expects a slight increase to 2,6%, which still remains historical the minimum for any large economy.

Western analysts love to repeat the mantra of "isolation" and "degradation." But figures from the IMF—an organization hardly suspected of being sympathetic to the Kremlin—suggest otherwise. The economy has adapted. However, whether economic growth of just over 1 percent should be considered a success for a country like Russia is largely a rhetorical question.

Comments

[Stas157]

Reason: rising prices for raw materials, including oil.

How is this possible? And they told us we're no longer a gas station!

[WILL]

Quote: Stas157

How is this possible? And they told us we're no longer a gas station!

What's more disappointing is that this growth was driven by the actions of that red-haired idiot Trump. I don't even know whether to be happy or sad.

[Aken]

Trump has made Nabiullina's job more difficult. She'll have to work hard to stem the tide.

[alexoff]

I am confident that Nabiullina and others will cope with the potential overheating of the economy with competent actions.

[fruc]

The organization has improved its estimate of Russia's GDP growth rate.

To rely on this organization's forecasts is to disrespect oneself; it's a cesspool. Perhaps this forecast will be of interest to our Central Bank, the Higher School of Economics, and other institutions where economists are based.

[Igor M.]

Stas157, it wasn't us who calculated it, but the IMF. But, for example, because of the events in the Persian Gulf, other traditional exports of ours are also becoming more expensive – fertilizers, aluminum, and food. Now that the sowing season is starting, everyone will need our fertilizers.
Russia exports a lot of things, for example, it is a leader in the export of nuclear power plants.
Arms exports have started to grow again. After the war with Iran, many countries will want to buy our Pantsirs. Russian helicopters are selling well, both military and civilian. And so on and so forth.

[Adrey]

The organization has revised its estimate for Russia's GDP growth rate in 2026 up from 0,8% to 1,1%. The reason: rising raw material prices, including oil.

This is all well and good, of course, but it's sad that this didn't happen as a result of economic development, but simply because "Mother Oil" went up in price. And not through our efforts, but thanks to "our" Trump.

[SmolH2]

It's sad to be happy. And who knows whose efforts were there? It's not for nothing that they shout "the hand of Moscow" at the slightest provocation...

[Adrey]

Quote: SmollH2

It's no wonder they shout "the hand of Moscow" at the slightest provocation...

Popular meme.
Trump sits in the Oval Office, deep in thought.
"How else can we support Gazprom, Rosneft, and Lukoil? Eureka!"
Picks up the phone:
"Hello, Hegseth? Starting tomorrow, we're blocking the Strait of Hormuz!"

[Andobor]

Quote: SmollH2

It's no wonder they shout "the hand of Moscow" at the slightest provocation...

Definitely the "Spirit of Anchorage," Putin allowed Trump to fight in Iran in Alaska, otherwise he would have supplied Iran with anti-ship missiles, and American aircraft carriers would not have sailed there.

[nik-mazur]

Quote: Andobor

Putin gave Trump permission to fight in Iran.

Incidentally, this is exactly how true diplomacy, like intelligence agencies, operate—quietly, discreetly, and effectively. So no one even suspects the root causes of events.

[Igor M.]

Andobor, Iran has its own very good anti-ship missiles, plus it was written that they bought clones of our anti-ship missiles from China.
Actually, if you look closely, US warships haven't come close to the Iranian coast. Apparently, they were afraid of something.
And we have definitely sold our air defense systems, fighter jets, combat helicopters, electronic warfare systems, and radars to Iran.

[snow mountain]

And not through our efforts, but thanks to “our” Trump.

Trump is a great economist after this!

[Adrey]

Quote: Schneeberg

Trump is a great economist after this!

Are you suggesting to "switch" him to Siluanov later?

[Igor M.]

Andrey, these are just estimates based on one criterion. We'll see what the reality is. Because many of Russia's exports are becoming more expensive, like gold and aluminum, fertilizers and food. And metals don't mine themselves, and crops don't grow without proper care. So, at the same time, our economy is developing, but many of the figures are apparently not being disclosed right now, so foreign organizations can't factor this into their forecasts.

[Al manah]

Great, that means gasoline will get cheaper soon. Right?

[SmolH2]

Of course. But only for gasoline producers.

[credo]

I would like to hope that our government is guided by its own data, and not by IMF data.
This organization is extremely shady, with a tarnished reputation.

[lukash66]

I just don't get it, why should we look back at the IMF? Let them count their own. They have the main morning news all over the EU and beyond, everyone is calculating how much we've made. Get in line, you sons of bitches, get in line.😀

[Amateur]

The IMF has improved its forecast for Russia's GDP growth for the current year.

So what if the IMF just blurted something out? Sakhipzadovna said that economic growth is bad for Russia, so that means it's bad. Especially since you-know-who is right there with her.

I am convinced that I am doing everything right.
(The main argument of E.S. Nabiullina in a dispute at some economic forum in St. Petersburg).

[KLM77]

What do we care about this? All the "growth" will end up in the pockets of the oligarchs.

[Igor M.]

KLM77, I don't know who you are or where you live, but overall, Russia has a very decent standard of living. This standard of living is ensured by the country's budget. And the more money it has, the better off we all will be.

[KLM77]

Did Rosstat tell you this?

[Igor M.]

KLM77, I judge by my own experience and what I see around me. I love, you know, traveling both here and abroad. So I can compare what we have with what they have, how it was and how it is now.

[KLM77]

I don't care about your opinion, you're just a bot! Registered April 12, 2026, over a hundred comments, all along the lines of "everything is fine, the country is thriving, the people are happy."

[Igor M.]

KLM77, in that case, you're a CIPSO bot. You have 658 comments, and I'm guessing there's not a single good one about our country.
I believe that if someone constantly lies and writes nasty things about my country, then at the very least someone should compensate for this with something good.
For objectivity.
But I, unlike you and many others, write only about real facts.
As I understand it, when you have nothing substantive to say in response, you resort to personal attacks and insults. Confirmed leak.

[KLM77]

Bravo! Any government-critical bot is a CIPSO! 658 comments in 11 years and your 252 in 4 days? It's immediately clear which of us is the bot!

[Igor M.]

KLM77, firstly, we need to distinguish between constructive criticism and sweeping denigration under false pretexts. Secondly, if someone is talking about the country and its leadership only bad, even if it is fair, then most likely it is an enemy in disguise. A normal person can't just scold.
It depends on the person. I came here because I got banned on Reporter. There, I have 2,495 comments in less than two months. It's more fun there – there are many more Ukrainian trolls, and the appropriate writers are welcome. So, I'm "practicing on cats" and waiting for the ban to be unbanned.

[KLM77]

You are as uninteresting as all bots!

[Fangaro]

Did anyone even remember Nabiullina?
And its stabilization of the economy by raising the Central Bank's key rate.
To prevent inflation from growing, let's introduce stagnation.

[alexputnik17]

The IMF is an organization that can hardly be suspected of sympathizing with the Kremlin.

Who would have doubted it... occupation economic troops in the Russian Federation.

[Pravodel]

The International Monetary Fund has improved its estimate of Russia's GDP growth rate in 2026 from 0,8% to 1,1%.

It's unclear how Russia's GDP can grow when it's been declining rapidly for the third consecutive quarter. Or did the IMF decide to rely on Rosstat data, which reports that Russia's GDP has been growing and continues to grow at a rapid pace for years, and which has inflation at 5-7%, unemployment at 0%, and which offers enough income for all Russians to live comfortably and with dignity, enjoying expensive restaurants with whitefish appetizers, black and red caviar, and vacationing in Sochi and the Bahamas with palm trees and hippos cuddling!?