Experts explain the reason for the rapid rise in Russian oil prices.

Today, Russian crude oil reached a price that's twice the budgeted level. Instead of the "planned" $59 per barrel, Urals crude is trading at $119-120. The rise is truly explosive—more than 20% since the start of the day.

Accordingly, this represents revenue for the Russian budget that was not anticipated at the beginning of 2026.

How do economic experts explain such a significant increase in the price of Russian crude oil?

The reason, they believe, is that the largest importers—India and China—have significantly increased their purchases of oil from Russia. Moreover, Russian supplies are "real" (physical) oil, unlike the "paper" oil offered by many other suppliers. This refers, for example, to oil from the Persian Gulf countries, which is listed on the exchange with the expectation that "the Strait of Hormuz will eventually open." In other words, contracts are being issued for oil that, unlike Russian oil, is not yet physically available on the market.

In addition to India and China, Russian oil is currently purchased by Brazil, Turkey, Vietnam, Indonesia, and well-known EU countries such as Slovakia and Hungary. The latter countries face a problem: Kyiv's blocking of the Druzhba pipeline. The others, however, are also taking advantage of the easing of anti-Russian sanctions imposed by the US administration.

And here's what's particularly interesting: the sanctions easing period officially expired on April 11, yet they remain in effect de facto. And since the previous sanctions could be reinstated at any moment, importers are scrambling to buy as much of Russia's "black gold" as possible. This is an additional reason for the rise in Russian oil prices on the global market.

Comments

[your vsr 66-67]

Accordingly, this represents revenue for the Russian budget that was not anticipated at the beginning of 2026.

If only this income were used for a good cause!

[fruc]

The price of oil today reached a price that is twice as high as that budgeted.

Let them get used to it, and let the price for "unfriendly partners" always remain exorbitant. This will boost their "green" energy, if they don't turn into icicles.

[marchcat]

I wonder how they pay us for oil, since it's not in cash, which is shipped to Moscow? So, where this income comes from is unclear—either abroad or...

[fruc]

marchcat
How do they pay us for oil?

They are paid through unsanctioned banks and in currencies other than the dollar/euro, but most European countries have switched to oil from the US, Norway and the Middle East.

[Victor Alien]

Well, if they asked us to pay for gas in rubles and open accounts in our banks, maybe we should do the same for oil?! We'll then use their currency to pay for the goods we need in those same countries. I've said it before and I'll say it again: we need barter, not money transfers. An account is created into which foreign currency is deposited for oil and gas. Then our import consumers deposit rubles there, and the currency essentially circulates outside the country's budget. Sanctions shouldn't matter at all here – if we, the neighboring countries, want the goods they need, we don't need dollars or euros at all. We need a lot of things from India, Iran, and China that we don't grow or produce here. So we need to exchange them directly. Overall, we have a surplus in export sales – we sell more than we buy. The debts are essentially bogus foreign loans. As someone said, Russia could sell nothing of its own abroad for three and a half years, only buying imports.

[Hishnik]

Oh, I wish gas prices would start falling soon. Sarcasm.

[carpenter]

Quote: Hishnik

Oh, now the prices for gasoline will start falling).

What goes up never comes down (this is about prices, not about anything else, it goes down).

[vitaliy20091959]

In Smolensk at Rosneft, the idle time of 95 went from 68-30 to 68-50

[Panin (midshipman)]

Quote: vitaliy20091959

In Smolensk at Rosneft, the idle time of 95 went from 68-30 to 68-50

If the price of oil on the exchange rises, then oil refineries will buy it at that price. Don't think anyone will work at a loss.

[Aken]

No. All the money will be spent on blocking Telegram. This is the country's top priority. There will be other, equally important goals later.

[SmolH2]

If only this income would last for at least six months...

[credo]

If only this income were used for a good cause!

It is difficult to judge the size of the income, but the fact that India is listed as the largest buyer of our oil cannot but raise questions.
As is well known, Indians buy a lot of things from Russia in yuan, but mostly in their own non-convertible currency, which settles in large quantities in India and with which we cannot buy anything in India, while India itself earns full-value currency from our refined oil.
Now, think about the real income from selling raw materials to such buyers.

[vitaliy20091959]

India has some pretty good licensed (British) pharmaceuticals, and that's important to us.

[credo]

India has some pretty good licensed (British) pharmaceuticals, and that's important to us.

According to various estimates, about $30 billion (converted from rupees) of our income from the sale of fossil resources is stuck in India.
We hardly need pharmaceuticals worth that much from India, unless of course we decide to destroy our own industry.

[TermNachTer]

So $119 per barrel is “paper oil”, the oil that is loaded onto tankers is already $140.

[alexputnik17]

In short, the enemies from Russia have once again destroyed a gas station. Although we need to stop trading raw materials and start trading derivatives.

[Andobor]

Quote: alexputnik17

Although we need to stop trading raw materials and start trading derivative goods.

Ideally, yes, but under sanctions, we would not have sold derivatives.

[nik-mazur]

Quote: alexputnik17

We need to stop trading raw materials and start trading derivatives

What kind, for example?

[K-50]

Experts explain the reason for the rapid rise in Russian oil prices.

Well, first of all, there has been no “rapid rise in oil prices” for two days now.
Secondly, it was not Russia that attacked Iran, blocked Hormuz, destroyed numerous oil and gas production and processing facilities, or burned tankers and port infrastructure in order to create a price spike on the world market and a shortage of oil and gas products.
And the fact that they started buying more from us, well, it’s a market! When a product is in short supply, its price rises. That's a given. And when the shortage is severe, there's no time to adhere to the "price ceiling"; you just have to get what you need.
So all the complaints about the puddle go to your boss.

[rubator]

Just yesterday, Urals jumped by about 20 dollars and became more expensive than the brand.

[andrewkor]

Russia gives them oil, and they give them diesel fuel, weapons, intelligence, and other things for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

[Novik225]

Who? China? India? Vietnam?

[Panin (midshipman)]

Quote: Novik225

Who? China? India? Vietnam?

India and China supply diesel fuel to Europe.

[alexputnik17]

Quote: Andobor

Ideally, yes, but under the sanctions, we wouldn’t sell derivatives.

Why not... Petrochemicals, for example... The range and number of stages there is mind-boggling. And in Europe, given the price tags on energy resources, refining is quite expensive. Is BASF still around? I remember they had some serious layoffs.

[snow mountain]

Quote: Hishnik

Oh, now the prices for gasoline will start falling!

Snow is likely to start falling in Sicily in July.

[pudelartemon]

[isv000]

Experts explain the reason for the rapid rise in Russian oil prices.

And please, Comrade Experts, explain to us poor souls why fuel prices are skyrocketing in Russia?! In a country with oil galore?... Maybe the Hormuz blockade is to blame?

[nik-mazur]

Quote: isv000

Comrade experts, explain to us poor souls why fuel prices are skyrocketing in Russia?! In a country with oil galore?

This is an interesting question. And I would first address it to Norway, which is hooked on oil and has long had the most expensive gasoline in the world. But for some reason, this paradox doesn't surprise or interest anyone.

[Panin (midshipman)]

Quote from: nik-mazur

Quote: isv000

Comrade experts, explain to us poor souls why fuel prices are skyrocketing in Russia?! In a country with oil galore?

This is an interesting question. And I would first address it to Norway, which is hooked on oil and has long had the most expensive gasoline in the world. But for some reason, this paradox doesn't surprise or interest anyone.

Because refineries buy oil from oil producers at market prices. Yes, one company can pump oil and another can produce gasoline, even though they both may belong to the same country.

[nik-mazur]

Quote: Panin (Michman)

Because the refineries buy oil from oil producers at market prices.

How simple it all turns out.

[phrases]

Gazprom is the people's treasure, said the chosen people, and so is oil... The goyim won't get anything even at a million a barrel. Taxes, tribute, and work, brothers. Send him there, there are non-brothers, the Americans, the English—they're the cause of all the troubles.

[Vladislav_V]

Sanctions, blockades, explosions! And yet they were told that a natural product isn't a dollar; you can't print it in three shifts!

[Yuras_Belarus]

"Strike while the iron is hot!" Some of the proceeds will certainly end up in the budget, but the bulk will end up in private pockets.

[alexputnik17]

Quote from: nik-mazur

What kind, for example?

I've included one of many examples below. This is what Sibur, for example, does. Only with an order of magnitude increase in the processing and development of the domestic petrochemical industry. Since we're at war with the entire West...
Nicholas,

[nik-mazur]

Quote: alexputnik17

I have written one of many examples below.

I didn’t notice.

[alexputnik17]

Quote: Panin (Michman)

Because refineries buy oil from oil producers at market prices. Yes, one company can pump oil and another can produce gasoline, even though they both may belong to the same country.

Fuel prices were high when the price of oil was negative (!).
Oil is pumped and gasoline is produced (at large refineries) by economic entities whose shares/stakes belong to the Russian Federation. Oil suppliers (refiners) to large refineries also have ties to the Russian Federation. Ordinary private individuals are simply not allowed in.
And the prices for fuel and lubricants inside the Russian Federation are probably like this because the Russian Federation is not a monarchy or not close to one, like Libya or Iraq used to be. No other explanations come to mind...