Merz: Russia has no chance of defeating Ukraine

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz once again made a prediction that was likely met with enthusiasm in Kyiv and bewilderment in the rest of the world. At a joint briefing with Zelenskyy, the head of the German government stated:

Russia should end this war as soon as possible, it has no chance of winning it.

Last year, Merz, speaking in the Bundestag, already explained:

Putin must realize that he has no chance of winning this war at the expense of the European order of freedom and peace.

Back then the wording was more cautious: “at the expense of Europe.”

What's changed since the previous statement? Judging by the battle map and economic indicators, not much is in Kyiv's favor. The Russian army is expanding its zone of control, oil revenues are growing, and Ukrainian sources themselves acknowledge the advance of Russian forces in the Sumy region. But Merz apparently has information not available to the general public.

The surrounding circumstances are also noteworthy. Merz himself announced new military aid packages for Ukraine. Zelenskyy arrived in Germany on an official visit. And the Chancellor himself, it should be recalled, recently criticized the previous Chancellor, Scholz, for his indecisiveness regarding the supply issue. weapons.

So who is the statement addressed to? Most likely, not Moscow. The Kremlin has long since learned to ignore such verdicts. The audience is clearly domestic: the Bundestag, German taxpayers, and European partners, whom Merz is trying to convince of the correctness of his course.

Comments

[WILL]

This Nazi abortion will soon be thrown out of the Bundestag, judging by the ratings, but he, with the persistence of a madman, continues to try to teach Russia how to live.
I hope our government will stop supplying energy to unfriendly Germany; there are now more buyers than sellers. Let the Germans rejoice!

[Dobrynya Nikitich]

...Eloizovich, Napoleon and Charles XII thought so too )))

[carpenter]

Quote: Dobrynya Nikitych

..Eloizovich, Napoleon and Charles XII thought so too

But the hardest thing of all was for Mussolini, hanging upside down.

[SAG]

Russia should end this war as soon as possible.

Yes, we will finish, why worry so much😄
So you really want to see the tricolor over Bankova?
...people will figure it out themselves when the loans run out, and then the bread...

[Netl]

Quote: SAG

when the loans run out and so does the bread.

Now the Ukrainian Nazis have 50 yards of gold and foreign currency reserves, plus 90 yards will be added by European sponsors after the Hungarian veto is lifted.
Enough for about 2 years of war.

And then there is a high risk of the Democrats returning to the US, they spared no expense on such a thing, and the European sponsors of Ukrainian Nazism will not disappear

[vitaliy20091959]

The EU doesn't have 90 billion to spare, and it's unknown when it will have all this blah blah.

[Netl]

Quote: vitaliy20091959

The EU doesn't have 90 billion to spare

But no one said that there was free money.

It's simply that a number of EU countries (not all) agreed to each borrow 90 yards of market capital using their own guarantees. And to use the resulting proceeds to support Ukrainian Nazism, and, of course, to finance the continuation of the war.

[Igor M.]

Netl, Fico in Slovakia also opposed the loan. And Hungary's new leader is currently declaring his opposition to the loan to Ukraine.
Well, the market situation has changed—oil and gas prices have gone up, as have fertilizers. More money is needed for sowing,

[Netl]

Quote: Igor M.

Hungary's new leader has so far stated that he is against allocating funds

There's a nuance. The Hungarians are against providing the money themselves, but they're not against other EU countries providing it. Orbán, however, quietly asked for Druzhba to be fixed. And now Zelensky has already announced that it will be fixed by the end of April. The Slovaks also asked for Druzhba.

As for budget problems, the bulk of the money is coming from wealthy Northern European countries. They have low debt levels (borrowing is easy) and highly developed economies. Poorer countries are participating only symbolically, and some aren't participating at all. So, for now, there aren't any real financial problems in sight.

[Igor M.]

Netl, we'll see. Slovenia is also starting to rebel, despite the fact that it's not tied to Druzhba. And, I repeat, the EU has already lost €22 billion from new oil and gas prices. By the second half of the year, the losses will grow to €90 billion. And now they'll be buying more expensive fertilizers for sowing. They're also writing that Ukraine has practically no fertilizer, meaning the harvest will be much poorer, and therefore it will earn much less money from grain sales in the fall.

[Netl]

Quote: Igor M.

Slovenia is also starting to rebel.

So far, Slovenia has not only not blocked the allocation of funds, but has even agreed to borrow a little and transfer it to the common pot (many countries do not block, but do not borrow either).

And the losses of European residents, businesses, farmers, and others are in no way connected to the loan to Ukraine. Denmark (one of the main per capita sponsors of Nazism) will borrow the money now, throw it into the common pot 90 yards away, and hand it over to the Ukrainian Nazis. And any potential budget problems will arise much later. The Danes will take them into account later, cut some of their expenses, budget for interest payments (Ukraine will obviously pay nothing), and be quite satisfied. They're not that poor; they can easily afford it, the bastards.

[Igor M.]

Netl, while the EU itself has postponed the loan allocation discussions until the second half of the year. This is no accident.
And during this time, a lot can change. First of all, the money will run out.

[Netl]

Quote: Igor M.

The EU itself postponed the loan allocation discussions until the second half of the year.

It wasn't the discussion that was postponed, but the payments themselves:
European Commission spokesman Balázs Ujvári, 14 April 2026: "The European Commission remains committed to plans to deliver the first disbursements under this programme during the second half of [2026]."

Quote: Igor M.

First of all, the money will run out.

Something that doesn't exist can't end. This money isn't in the budgets or anywhere else. There's only an agreement that, before repayment, a group of countries borrows money on the market and hands the resulting loan over to the Ukrainian Nazis. And the money on the markets can't disappear.

[Sergei Fonov]

The fate of our 300 billion has not yet been fully decided; if the war continues, they could very well confiscate it; they'll find a pretext. We shouldn't expect a victory like the Great Patriotic War, with a signed capitulation. Only by eradicating Nazism can we expect peace. However, much has been written about this, and there's no point in rehashing it again and again.

[nik-mazur]

Quote: Sergei Fonov

The fate of our 300 billion has not yet been fully decided.

Our 300 billion are Western debt obligations. To turn these securities into cash, the West must sell them to someone. But to do that, they'd have to find a fool with 300 billion and be willing to invest them in clearly stolen assets. This plan is dubious, even with a 70% discount.
So, realistically, the West can only write off these debts, that is, forgive themselves. This won't make the West any more money.

[Sergei Fonov]

We have only one path—the legal one. Powerful states don't pay attention to the legal framework, or their decisions will be outside the legal framework. They'll find a pretext that they'll declare a legal solution to the problem, and this happens in everything. It sounds something like this: we can do whatever we want, and Russia can do whatever it wants, but according to the law.

[nik-mazur]

Quote: Sergei Fonov

We can do whatever we want, and Russia can do whatever it wants, but according to the law

Well, yes: “For friends – everything, for enemies – the law.”
But this doesn't change the situation with frozen assets. For the West, it's a dead end, whether legally or unlawfully.

[Sergei Fonov]

"For friends - everything, for enemies - the law."
Yes, it seems Stroessner uttered a historical phrase that is relevant for all times. To be fair, this phrase is attributed to many, both Franco and

[Sergei Fonov]

"For friends - everything, for enemies - the law."
Yes, it seems Stroessner uttered a historical phrase that is relevant for all times. To be fair, this phrase is attributed to many, both Franco and

[Hitriy Zhuk]

Quote: Sergei Fonov

The fate of our 300 billion has not yet been fully decided; if the war continues, they could very well be confiscated; they will find a pretext.

This is quite possible in any case, well, perhaps except for Washington, which was burned in a nuclear fire.

[Nastia makarova]

Where do you get 50 zvr from if you only live on a loan?

[Netl]

Quote: Nastia Makarova

Where did 50 zvr come from?

Not all of the previous handouts have been squandered and stolen yet.

[Nastia makarova]

Is that what they said?))) If there were ZVR, they wouldn't give out new loans.

[Netl]

Quote: Nastia Makarova

If there were ZVR, they wouldn't give out new loans.

Why is that?
NBU summary: "According to preliminary data, as of April 1, 2026, Ukraine's international reserves amounted to $52,0 billion. In March, they decreased by 5%."

Right now, the Ukrainian Nazis are squandering their gold and foreign currency reserves. Their European sponsors want to help and are throwing in another 90 yards. They have the financial means, and they have no moral restraints on sponsoring Nazism or war.

[Nastia makarova]

50 is not a star, but their budget..........

[Netl]

Quote: Nastia Makarova

50 is not a star

No! Unfortunately, the Ukrainian Nazis have a bigger budget.
The state budget of Ukraine for 2026, approved by the Verkhovna Rada, envisages expenditures of approximately 4,78 trillion hryvnias (approximately $115–120 billion at the projected exchange rate).

[Anatoly Eliseev]

There are 40 percent who hate us! So it's not that simple and quick.

[SAG]

Quote: Anatoly Eliseev

There are 40 percent who hate us! So it's not that simple and quick.

Yes, I think it's much worse! Everyone who respected us has already left! Only when hunger and cold become unbearable will there be no other way out. No one will accept this crowd of embittered, post-Maidan paupers into the EU. They'll be sprayed with ice-cold water at the border from a water hose, just like they did to migrants from the Middle East.

[Sevastiec]

Yeah... Nicholas I and II also had a lot on their minds. Especially the Second. For example, about the "underdeveloped Asians" whom we'd "show off." Russia certainly didn't win every war, by the way.

The Russian army is expanding its zone of control, and oil revenues are growing.

It expands a couple of square meters, and the budget deficit has already been selected for more than a year in advance.
And oil revenues are falling, by the way, despite the explosive price rise, because we're in a dollar-denominated economy, and oil and gas companies are in no rush, especially now, to withdraw money from Western banks. The decline in the first quarter of the year was 50 percent. And, of course, the total devastation of the Russian economy hasn't gone away.

[Igor M.]

Sevastiec, in fact, in the first quarter of 2026, we liberated more than 1000 square kilometers. Just yesterday, we took at least 50 square kilometers. And yet, the main offensive always took place in the summer.
So, they write that Russia’s income has increased.

Russia's revenue from oil and petroleum product exports nearly doubled in March 2026, reaching $19,04 billion, according to the International Energy Agency.

[Green tea]

Ukraine's area is 600,000 square meters, and only 0,17% was captured in the first quarter. 20% is already there. Even if 15% is Western Ukraine, which is of no use to anyone, that means at this rate we need to take another 65%, which is 390,000 square kilometers, if we take 4,000 a year. Calculate the time yourself.

[Igor M.]

Green Tea, remember that our goal is not to seize all of Ukraine. The North-Eastern Front's mission is to liberate Russian territory and create a buffer zone in the border area.

[Green tea]

I haven't heard of a buffer zone, I've heard of Ukraine ceasing to be a threat. A buffer zone is no better than a ceasefire; it's a recipe for trouble.

[Igor M.]

Green Tea, it will cease to be a threat anyway. It's already lost half its population. And in the remaining year, before the end of the Second World War, there simply won't be anyone left to fight.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces began sending women on bicycles to carry out assaults.

As soon as the borders open, a lot more people will flee.
It's good that no one cares about your opinion.

[PVV22121922]

Pensioner Igor M. doesn't have an issue. But Russia is facing the issue of reuniting Russian lands and people. Some Igor M.s will tell you that Kyiv, Odessa, Kharkiv, Chernihiv... aren't Russian cities. Where do you "pensioners"—spokespeople for our weak-willed government—come from?

[Igor M.]

PVV22121922, no need for insinuations. If you lean me against a warm wall in a warm place, you can still do just fine with me...
Are we going to take California and Alaska back? Or chop off half of Kazakhstan? Or take Karabakh from Azerbaijan and Armenia? These are all former Russian lands. Do you want Russia to be mired in war? You won't get it.
Exponents of a rational approach. Wisdom comes only with age.

[PVV22121922]

You can act the fool as much as you like. Of course, the purchased Baltics, the Russian territory of so-called Ukraine, and northern Kazakhstan—a wild field reclaimed by Russians—are Russian territories. They must be returned. Our ancestors were much wiser than you, leaning against a warm wall, and created a great Russia. Today's defeatists are waiting for its collapse—ready to give everything away, declaring it un-Russian. At this rate and with empty heads, they will definitely come to your apartment, ruining your peaceful old age. You won't be able to hide.

[Igor M.]

ПВВ22121922, well then, return it, our wise man. Is anyone stopping you? Or are you just capable of barking from under the bench, and someone else is responsible for returning it?
And don't distort things - it's one thing to return one's former territories, and quite another to give up one's current ones.
As we can see, some territories have already been returned - Chechnya, Crimea, the LPR and DPR.
We should be happy, not rioting. It's like the joke: a Jew finds a wallet, but it's missing money.

[PVV22121922]

I believe you're not even just barking along, you're just barking loudly. You feel it's okay to add one of your own/generated "wise thoughts" to every comment from other participants. Not only do you directly not want the reunification of Russian territories and people, but you also don't even mention Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, meaning you're handing them over to the enemy just so you can retire peacefully and "rejoice." And stop this demagoguery about "go and fight"—victory is not achieved due to a lack of political will in the Kremlin, not for any other reason.

[Green tea]

I've long estimated that, at the current rate of "expansion of the zone of control," it would take about 500 years to capture all of Ukraine. Therefore, it's completely unclear what the leaders are mumbling about their goals.

[nik-mazur]

Quote: Green Tea

I have long ago estimated that at the current rate of "expansion of the zone of control" it will take about 500 years to capture all of Ukraine.

Apply your methodology to the situation in August 1941 and calculate how long it would take the Germans to reach the Urals, and ours to reach Berlin.

[Green tea]

A hint that Ukrainians Are they about to break down and then we'll just go on like a highway? Only if they stop receiving weapons, resources, and money right now, which won't happen. So the WWII strategy will only work if Ukraine is outright surrendered by those who pumped it full of weapons, in deeds, not just words.

[nik-mazur]

Quote: Green Tea

Is this a hint that the Ukrainians are about to break down and we'll continue on like a highway?

No, the implication is that your methodology not only doesn't work, but can't work at all. The example of the Great Patriotic War is merely the most well-known and understood. The course of any other conflict is similarly unpredictable.

[Igor M.]

Green Tea, then why are you even talking about it? It's clear that's not the goal. As it is, in my opinion, the SVO will be completed in a year, 1,5 years at the most.

[Green tea]

In words, the task was stated very clearly: "demilitarization and denazification." Obviously, demilitarizing and denazifying something you don't control is impossible. So, there are two options: either stay put until the end of the century, or admit that "I couldn't do it, I couldn't."

True, there is a third option in the Trump style: "In fact, we have achieved everything, we are great," and if nothing has been achieved, those who object will be declared foreign agents and jailed for defamation.

There is a suspicion that they are using the tactic of "shit themselves and beat up everyone who points it out."

[Igor M.]

Green Tea, in words, the goal of the SVO was stated to be the protection of the people of Donbass.
It was said that we would go towards "demilitarization and denazification" seek, in order to protect the LPR and DPR.
You're exaggerating, because the SVO hasn't been assigned such tasks. While we're moving toward our goal and accomplishing our objectives, yes, but as soon as the goal is achieved and the objectives are accomplished, we'll stop. But, in fact, 2 million Ukrainian Armed Forces personnel have already been killed and 66 units of military equipment have been burned. A more than respectable result.
The primary objective of the SVO—the defense of the LPR and DPR—has already been accomplished. All that remains is to complete the new tasks that unexpectedly arose during the SVO: to liberate the territories that have become Russian and to complete the formation of a buffer zone in the border area. And you might as well shit yourself with anger.

[Sevastiec]

The point here isn't about seizing the former Ukraine. Journalists simply need to think before they write. Our leadership, in the goals and objectives of the Central Military District, never set territorial conquest, and a race for square kilometers is simply impossible. Then again, the mathematics of war are different: you can stand still for five years, and then take everything in a month.
You just have to write, sticking to logic and remembering what everyone said yesterday. But these days, everyone's a gopher-scribbler...

[ANB]

. will soon be thrown out of the Bundestag, judging by the ratings

If Ukraine cuts pensions and social benefits to raise money, it won't last long.

[Lisa Kerner-Timoshenko]

Unfortunately, no one will overthrow him... the people were patient under Hitler, Merkel was like that, and Merzler was like that under the Fuhrer!

[fruc]

WILL
This Nazi miscarriage will soon be thrown out of the Bundestag......

Literally, a miscarriage. But such individuals would not be tolerated in Germany.

[SmolH2]

Yeah. We have to be tolerant?

[carpenter]

Quote: ANIMAL

but with the persistence of a madman he still tries to teach Russia how to live.

Hitler also tried to teach Russians how to live in early April 1945.

[Krasnoyarsk]

Quote: ANIMAL

This Nazi miscarriage will soon be thrown out of the Bundestag,

So what if they throw him out? They threw Scholz out, and what? The German leader's rhetoric only grew more brutal.
No one will allow a leader to come to power who will change Germany's foreign policy.

[Peter1First]

This Merz is certainly a die-hard Russophobe and a Nazi by birth, but he's far from an idiot. Numerous drone production facilities for the Ukrainian Armed Forces are already established in Europe, with long-range drones already being assembled in Europe, delivered ready-to-use closer to their launch sites, bypassing intermediate warehouses. The peaceful Europeans plan to increase long-range drone production to 1000 units per day by the end of the year, and to 1500 units per day by 27. They quite realistically believe that our air defense systems cannot handle such a quantity. Furthermore, the technological level of the drones they supply to the Ukrainian Armed Forces has improved—they can now easily operate 50 kilometers deep into our defenses, which has already impacted Kupyansk, Stepnogorsk, and Chasov Yar. And somehow I don't see anything our generals can offer in response, other than the heroism of our attack aircraft and supply personnel, who are suffering daily losses in such deteriorating conditions. Where are the combat lasers? Where are the automated robotic air defense turrets? Where is the effective electronic warfare?

[Netl]

Quote from: Peter1First

Where are the combat lasers?

Never mind the lasers. The most pressing question is, where are the AWACS aircraft?

Take the A-50, for example, which the USSR successfully produced back in the 70s. It's precisely because they lack a view from above that Nazi-Ukrainian drones evade our ground-based radars, exploiting the terrain.

[Igor M.]

Netl, lasers and turrets are working - see my other post.
However, using AWACS aircraft in combat against an enemy with advanced air defenses is unacceptable. In 2023, we lost two A-50s, and we haven't deployed them in the Air Defense Forces since then.
The US also lost an AWACS aircraft in the war with Iran.

[Netl]

Quote: Igor M.

use AWACS aircraft in combat with the enemy

We don't need to use them in combat with the enemy. The enemy has practically no air force.

We desperately need AWACS aircraft over our territory to detect Nazi drones flying close to the surface, hidden behind terrain. Ground-based radars are ineffective against them, but from above they're perfectly visible. But there needs to be someone to watch.

[Igor M.]

No, first of all, they do. They were given up to 60 F-16s, plus five Mirage-2000s, and there are still some 20-30 remaining Soviet aircraft. But the main thing is that they have a well-developed air defense network, including Patriots, European systems, and Soviet S-300s. In particular, the long-range S-200s could have remained.
Remember that we're mounting air defense missiles on Geranki and have already shot down planes and helicopters several times. And the Ukrainian Armed Forces are no less clever; they're installing air defense missiles on their unmanned aerial vehicles and shooting down our helicopters. So it's better to save the AWACS.
Now they're putting Pantsirs on artificial hills to give them a longer range. Plus, they've reported that they're working on strategic UAVs with mini-AWACS. Still, it's less of a waste to lose without people. People are also speculating about aerostats.

[Netl]

Quote: Igor M.

Now the Pantsirs are placed on artificial hills

They put them on hills, they put them on towers. But this is out of desperation. Because there is still no AWACS.

The detection range of a Pantsir missile on the ground is 15 km, while on a 30-meter-high hill it's about 30 km (and that's an optimistic estimate, assuming the terrain is level). The A-50, however, can detect a drone from 300 km away. Given the area it controls, an A-50 is more effective than 100 Pantsirs. Furthermore, the Pantsirs' positions are stationary, known to the Nazis, and their drones are monitoring them. The AWACS aircraft can quickly move to a threatened area.

[Igor M.]

Netl, do you read my answers or are you just joking around?
A layered defense against UAV attacks is essential. There are also mobile groups and UAV interceptors.
For example, Ukraine also has an AWACS aircraft—it was a gift from the Scandinavians. And they also don't use it to repel our UAV raids, because they're also afraid of losing it.
Also remember that many UAVs are made of radio-transparent materials. In this case, neither the AWACS nor the Pantsir will detect them.
So people write that AWACS has had its day. They don't last long.

[Netl]

Quote: Igor M.

You read my answers

I'm reading it. But it covers very little about the main problem: how to detect Nazi drones that fly very low and hide from ground radars in the terrain.

Quote: Igor M.

And they also don’t use it to repel attacks by our UAVs.

This is absolutely untrue. Here's a quote from Ilya Yevlash (spokesperson for the Ukrainian Armed Forces) about the two ASC 890s transferred by the Swedes:
"These aircraft will become our 'eyes' in the sky. We desperately need AWACS to detect targets like the Shaheds when they try to hide in the terrain." Since March 2026, these aircraft have been actively used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. There are videos of their flight. They are used skillfully, far from the Lviv Oblast airbase, to illuminate a significant portion of Ukrainian territory. And here it's important to consider that, in addition to the AWACS aircraft personally transferred to them, the Ukrainian Nazis also receive information from NATO AWACS aircraft flying nearby.

Quote: Igor M.

In this case, neither the AWACS aircraft nor the Pantsir will see it.

There are no completely radio-transparent drones. In this case, any radar would detect it from a shorter distance. However, it's worth noting that the projection of any drone when viewed from above is much larger than from the side. This again strongly favors AWACS.

[Igor M.]

Netl, not the flight, but the approach. When the plane jumped up low and immediately descended. So what's the point of such an AWACS? From NATO, yes, but they fly far from the borders of Ukraine and Russia. What can they see at such a distance?
We see that a significant portion of our drones and missiles reach their targets. This means that AWACS isn't the ultimate perk you're making it out to be.
It's the same in the Persian Gulf. There are AWACS there, and the Shahids reach their targets without any problems.
In general, by the way, it is unclear how the system works against low-flying targets, since there is a re-reflection of radio waves from terrain details.
Actually, plywood and foam are completely radio-transparent. They're used to make radar shelters. The only thing they'll see right through the eyes of the operators before they die is point-blank.

[Netl]

Quote: Igor M.

And what is the point of such an AWACS?

The point of this AWACS is that it could detect our drones and missiles from several hundred kilometers away and guide fighters, helicopters, and other air defense systems to them. I've seen reports of flights in the Lviv and Ternopil area. But I'm not sure if this information is complete. Besides, the Ukrainian Nazis only started using their AWACS in March, and it's highly likely they'll expand their use.

Quote: Igor M.

So, AWACS is not the ultimate perk, as you describe.

I didn't describe such a thing; moreover, I believe there are no "ultimate perks." I wrote about something else: the lack of AWACS production is the most significant problem in Russia's air defense system, which allows the Ukrainian Nazis to carry out very sensitive strikes (for example, on Novorossiysk). Even the presence of perfectly functioning AWACS wouldn't completely eliminate enemy strikes, but their effectiveness would be significantly reduced.

Quote: Igor M.

The Persian Gulf. There's AWACS there, and the Shahids reach their targets without any problems.

Iran's main successes come from strikes on neighboring countries. The US suffered very little damage, and it's especially disappointing that it didn't sink a single ship from its group. Unfortunately, the Americans also have naval AWACS.

Quote: Igor M.

It's unclear how the system works against low-flying targets, as there is radio wave reflection there.

It's all clear. Just search for "Doppler filtering"—the topic has been around for a long time. And now, more sophisticated algorithms have emerged that utilize a different principle: comparison with an accurate elevation map.

Quote: Igor M.

Actually, plywood and foam are completely radio-transparent.

Not absolutely. At the very least, moisture condenses. Both the engine and electronics are always part of the UAV. But that's not even the main issue. Our main problem right now is the rear-end strikes of large UAVs converted from light aircraft or equivalents. They're quite large, have a long range, a lot of explosives, and are very visible from above.

[Igor M.]

Netl, well, once they start, then we'll get back to this conversation.
But for now there is no reason.
Remember that our Gerankas are already flying with MANPADS.

[nik-mazur]

Quote: Netl

These aircraft will become our "eyes" in the sky... They are used skillfully far from the Lviv region airbase, illuminating a significant portion of Ukrainian territory... and receive additional information from NATO AWACS aircraft flying around.

Swedish aircraft have a detection range of up to 300 km. American AWACS have a range of 400 km. How much of Ukraine can they see from the Lviv region or from Poland?

[Netl]

Quote from: nik-mazur

What significant part of Ukraine can they see from the Lviv region or from the territory of Poland?

They can already see, several hundred kilometers from their route, the western regions of Ukraine, where our forces are also launching strikes.

And then, we have to consider that the Ukrainian Nazis only began using their own AWACS in March 2026. They're essentially testing them in combat conditions now, and there's a high risk that they'll expand their zone of control as well.

[nik-mazur]

Quote: Netl

They can already see several hundred kilometers from their route.

Well, yes, three hundred kilometers, maximum. If this Swede flies near Lviv, he won't even be able to reach his radar station as far as Zhytomyr and Vinnytsia. And even moving to Kyiv, for example, is dangerous—it's less than three hundred kilometers from our border, so a long-range missile could hit him. A DLRO aircraft can't hide at ultra-low altitude, and ours won't spare a couple of missiles against such a juicy target.
It's the same story with AWACS. Only from the very south of Romania can they see Crimea, and even then, not all of it.

[nik-mazur]

Quote: Netl

The A-50 can spot a drone from 300 km away.

I saw it. What next? We'll still shoot down those drones with Pantsirs.

[Netl]

Quote from: nik-mazur

These drones will still be shot down with Pantsirs.

If you see one, use the expensive Pantsir missile only as a last resort. And once a low-flying drone is detected, it can be shot down with anything:
Ground groups with machine guns, helicopters, turboprop aircraft, anti-aircraft drones (Yolka and similar), MANPADS, and even a regular group of shooters positioned in the drone's direction have a good chance

[nik-mazur]

Quote: Netl

use the expensive Pantsir missile only as a last resort

You've missed the point. If a DLRO aircraft detects a drone 300 km away, what good does that do the Pantsir, which is still stationed near the protected facility and shoots down targets within a 30 km radius, anyhow? In fact, the Pantsir couldn't care less what the A-50 detected or where.
Incidentally, this also applies to ground forces with machine guns, anti-aircraft drones, MANPADS, and conventional small arms. Simply because no ground-based air defense systems chase aerial targets; they sit and wait for them to appear within range.
Data from DLRO aircraft may be more or less relevant for helicopters and light aircraft (which, as far as I understand, do not exist), but they will still be able to detect and destroy a target while patrolling a specific area, since DLRO aircraft cannot provide precise target designation.
And yes, drones are not ballistic missiles, so their trajectory cannot be predicted.

[Netl]

Quote from: nik-mazur

This also applies to ground groups with machine guns, anti-aircraft drones, MANPADS, and conventional small arms.

The difference is simply in the details! It's one thing to receive an order: "Sit and watch every night, maybe something will fly by somewhere." It's quite another to receive an order: "Get ready to shoot down, in three minutes the target will appear over that hill and head toward that lake." And this order is automated, on tablets.

Quote from: nik-mazur

More or less relevant data from DLRO aircraft may be available for helicopters and light aircraft.

You're absolutely right. Mobile air defense assets should be the primary means of combat, as they can quickly change their position depending on enemy attacks. And, by the way, for targets like light aircraft converted into drones and similar aircraft, AWACS will also provide precise coordinates. Furthermore, helicopters like the Mi-28 and Ka-52 have their own radars and IR targeting systems, which allow them to successfully locate drones in the search area even if precise coordinates are not received from AWACS.

And stationary air defense systems like Pantsir should be for the "last chance", to destroy the rare survivors that escaped from the mobile air defense forces.

[nik-mazur]

Quote: Netl

It's one thing to be ordered to sit and watch.

You won’t believe it, but this is the most optimal option for air defense operation.

Quote: Netl

A completely different order: prepare to shoot down, in 3 minutes a target will appear over that hill

This is fiction. It doesn't work like that in real life.

Quote: Netl

Mobile air defense systems should be the main means of combat

"Should be" means it doesn't exist. And it's not because there aren't enough DLRO aircraft.

Quote: Netl

helicopters of the Mi-28 and Ka-52 types have their own radar and IR targeting systems

Exactly. And helicopters cover a specific area anyway—they won't rush 300 km to shoot down a drone spotted by a DLRO aircraft.

Quote: Netl

Stationary air defense systems like Pantsir should be a "last resort"

That's exactly how it works.

In general, the problem common to all armchair experts is that they, for some reason, consider themselves more knowledgeable and intelligent than professionals. This is despite the fact that, for example, no one teaches dentists which drill to use. Although, it would seem, what's so difficult about it? After all, everyone has used a hammer drill and managed just fine.

[Netl]

Quote from: nik-mazur

And it’s not because there aren’t enough DLRO aircraft in the required quantities.

However, if AWACS aircraft are not available in sufficient numbers (and that's a fact), then there's no point in considering other reasons, even if they exist.

Quote from: nik-mazur

They won't rush 300 km to shoot down a drone.

The Mi-28, for example, has a fuel reserve of over 1000 km. What's the problem with flying 300 km?

Quote from: nik-mazur

The problem common to all armchair experts is that, for some reason, they consider themselves more knowledgeable and intelligent than professionals

I hope you personally don't think so. So, are you prepared to back up this opinion with references from professionals?

It's just that for now, it looks like a reverse substitution. That if they can shoot down some of the Ukrainian Nazi drones without using AWACS, then that's the way it should be. No matter how skilled you are, you won't be able to create an AWACS aircraft. You'll have to make do within the existing limitations.

[nik-mazur]

Quote: Netl

If there are no AWACS aircraft in the required quantities (this is a fact), then there is no point in considering other reasons

It is truth too.

Quote: Netl

What's the problem with flying 300?

During a flight mission, helicopters primarily patrol their area of ​​responsibility. Just like any other air defense assets. And not just air defense.

Quote: Netl

You personally don't think so

The fact that I am no smarter, no more literate, and no more experienced than the professionals is the very initial premise when considering any issues.

Quote: Netl

We are ready to confirm the opinion described by citing professionals

I'm a bit lazy looking for direct links, but I can recommend a channel on Zenchik called "How's It Actually?" It's run by (I think) an air defense colonel (retired, of course), who discusses air defense issues in great detail and with great argumentation. I'll warn you in advance that it's very verbose and technical. But it's very interesting and informative.

[Netl]

Quote from: nik-mazur

During a flight mission, helicopters primarily patrol their area of ​​responsibility.

In other words, the problem is purely organizational. When targeting information is received from the AWACS, helicopters can easily be redirected from an area free of enemy drones to an area where they are present.

Quote from: nik-mazur

an air defense colonel (retired, of course), who very thoroughly and convincingly

Here's what this respected person writes on the subject:
The problem of the shortage of radar surveillance and control aircraft (RSC) cannot be resolved
That is, he acknowledges the existence of a problem, and does not write that we are somehow setting up air defense without supervision from above and to hell with it.

Moreover, he also writes that fixed air defense positions like the Pantsir missile system on the hill don't solve the problem. Mobile air assets are needed to hunt down enemy drones:
You can't deploy a SAM system near every critical facility, and not every such facility can be covered by its owners with their own local civil air defense system. A fighter jet, however, can cover vast territories. It seems likely that this could be an aircraft based on the proven Yak-130 platform, which has suitable performance characteristics.
I completely agree that a group of upgraded subsonic fighters is even better than helicopters. But helicopters already exist.

It's nice that without reading the author of this channel, the conclusions were similar.

[nik-mazur]

Quote: Netl

When target designation from the AWACS appears, helicopters can easily be redirected

DLRO aircraft don't provide target designation. And drones easily change their trajectory. This means even if you know the approximate (very approximate) flight path, you'll have to detect, target, and destroy them yourself.

Quote: Netl

He acknowledges the existence of a problem, and doesn't write that we're somehow setting up air defense without a view from above and screw it.

No one is saying that it's better to be without DLRO aircraft than without them. But they don't work the way people outside the air defense community imagine. And organizing an air defense is a bit more complicated than simply launching a DLRO aircraft, spotting everyone, providing targeting information, and the fighters and ground-based gunships shooting them down. Incidentally, this respected expert has written about this many times.

Quote: Netl

A group of upgraded subsonic fighters is even better than helicopters. But helicopters already exist.

That's exactly it: there are helicopters, but no fighter drones. And it's not a given that they will appear, for a variety of reasons, which are also being considered.
The biggest problem is that our country is so big. On the one hand, it's hard to bomb everything, but on the other, it's exhausting trying to defend everything.

[Netl]

Quote from: nik-mazur

DLRO aircraft don't provide target designation. And drones easily change their trajectory.

Firstly, I will once again quote an important statement from the respected Air Defense Colonel (retired):
The problem of the shortage of radar picket aircraft cannot be resolved GUIDANCE (RLDN)

Secondly, our main problem is with relatively large drones converted from light aircraft and similar aircraft. AWACS can see such objects perfectly well and provide target designation.

Thirdly, even if the AWACS does not track the target, mobile air defense systems still need to move to the area of ​​its expected location and have sufficient resources to cover possible changes in vector.

Finally, the AWACS itself, unless it's a tethered heavy airship, should move toward the detected enemy drone group for further reconnaissance. Naturally, the number of AWACS assets must be sufficient.

Quote from: nik-mazur

Nobody says that it is better to live without DLRO aircraft than without them.

In previous posts, you wrote that air defense assets operate only within their own small control zones and have their own radars. They are not deployed to pursue drones detected by AWACS. With this system structured, AWACS are not required. I apologize if I misunderstood.

Quote from: nik-mazur

The main problem is that our country is very big

I don't want to buy into conspiracy theories, but it's odd that of all the air defense systems, we stopped producing the AWACS, which provides the greatest area of ​​coverage. For a small country, this wouldn't be critical, but for a large one, it would cause the greatest possible harm. I'd like to believe this isn't deliberate sabotage.

[nik-mazur]

Quote: Netl

radar surveillance and guidance

Guidance of what? Certainly not helicopters or mobile tachankas.

Quote: Netl

mobile air defense systems need to move to the area of ​​its expected location and have sufficient resources to cover possible changes in vector

Ground-based air defense systems have limited mobility, and they don't chase targets. They don't move to the suspected target's location—that's pointless, because drones move along an unpredictable trajectory, and the combat range of the tachankas is only 400 meters—not enough to run around. Therefore, mobile groups are deployed closer to the protected facility, or to weak points where more serious air defenses can't reach. And they remain vigilant there. If they see a target with their own eyes, they fire at it. A DLRO isn't much help in this scenario.

Quote: Netl

With such a system organization, AWACS is not required.

Something like that. It will probably be better with the DLRO aircraft, but it's unlikely to be that significant.

In general, DRLO stands for far radar detectionThis is the starting point we need to take into account, so as not to attribute any fantastical capabilities to AWACS aircraft.
Incidentally, if we estimate the number of AWACS aircraft required for continuous monitoring of the European part of Russia alone using a map, we'll find that about 15 aircraft would need to be in the air at any one time. Plus the same number on shift, and a few more in reserve.
In this scenario, for internal use, large reconnaissance drones would be more appropriate, as they are cheaper and easier to operate.

Quote: Netl

It's somehow strange that of all the air defense systems, we stopped producing the AWACS

Nothing strange, considering that one DLRO aircraft, having very specific capabilities, costs as much as a division of S-300 or 15 Pantsirs.

[Peter1First]

Add to this the daily reports of the same Konashenkov, where every day there are reports of the interception of 6...12 enemy guided bombs, which means that their aircraft are operating with impunity almost right next to the LBS line. Oh, how AWACS aircraft would help here!

[Netl]

Quote from: Peter1First

This means that their aircraft operate with impunity almost right next to the LBS line.

Incidentally, the tactic is the same. They fly as low as possible, nestled in the terrain until they reach launch range. Then they quickly climb, launch, and quickly dive back down, becoming invisible to our ground systems.

Here, of course, AWACS would also be very useful, but with such use there is a risk of running into an ambush from a long-range air defense system.

[Rakitin]

AWACS aircraft are a good thing in wars with the Papuans, but in other wars, they're a very easy and lucrative target. As the Russian Aerospace Forces have already demonstrated, losing a quarter of their AWACS fleet in a war with an enemy with virtually no air force and a very fragmented air defense. However, as Churchill said about the clash between the Italians and Austrians during WWI, "in terms of incompetence, the two sides proved quite a match for each other."

[Netl]

Quote: Rakitin

this is a very easy and fat target

It has always been so.
But the main thing here is to use it wisely. Avoid entering enemy air defense range (defend your own territory).

And, naturally, such aircraft should only land at well-protected airfields far from the LBS.

[Rakitin]

During a recent clash with the Pakistanis, the Indians shot down two of the latter's AWACS aircraft 400 km from the border...

[Netl]

Quote: Rakitin

The last two AWACS aircraft were intercepted 400 km from the border

This risk is always present, even though the operational range of AWACS aircraft allows for landings further away. But, of course, they aren't invincible.

We just need to be able to produce them in large quantities, without exorbitant prices and lead times. This would allow us to offset losses, just like in other types of aviation.

[Rakitin]

We'd also like to be able to mass-produce systems like the S-400/Patriot, but no one has yet come up with anything for less than 1 billion non-rubles per battery. Not even the Chinese or the Jews.
And a single cruise missile/ballistic missile with a price tag of 1-3 million is capable of destroying this magnificence. This has been demonstrated repeatedly in relation to both Western systems and, alas, our "analog-shit".

[Netl]

Quote: Rakitin

And one cruise missile/submarine with a price tag of 1-3 million is capable of destroying this magnificence.

The arithmetic of protective complexes is slightly different: until this magnificence is destroyed, it saves objects worth hundreds of billions and priceless human lives.

AWACS is from the same series, but of course, the system must work effectively.

[Rakitin]

As the Ukrainian drone raids made of shit and sticks show, it doesn't really help. Residents of Sevastopol, Belgorod, Bryansk, Novorossiysk, Tuapse (and so on) will tell you the truth.

[Netl]

Quote: Rakitin

They show raids by Ukrainian drones made of shit and sticks, but it doesn't really help.

Well, the key component of the air defense system against this type of drone (that moves along terrain), namely, AWACS, is currently almost completely absent. They could direct mobile airborne interceptors in real time and actively destroy most of the drones. We only have stationary air defenses, which the Ukrainian Nazis either bypass or overload.

That is why the disgrace that you wrote results.

[Rakitin]

Now, in the deep rear, they use helicopters for this purpose, which rattle in the sky at night and, if they're lucky, shoot down Ukrainian UAVs - they're no use in the LBS anyway.

[Netl]

Quote: Rakitin

Now, in the deep rear, helicopters are used for this purpose,

That's right, at the moment helicopters are the most effective way to combat Ukrainian Nazi UAVs flying along the surface.

But helicopters have a relatively limited field of view. If they were guided by AWACS with their powerful, high-altitude radars, they could, in conjunction with the helicopters, shoot down many more.

[Rakitin]

It's not a given that the radar on the old Soviet A50 will even detect them—the only metal part is the 0,1 cubic meter engine. Everything else is plastic and carbon composite.

[Netl]

Quote: Rakitin

The radar of the old Soviet A50 will even see them.

Of course, modern aircraft (or other flying vehicles) must have the highest quality radars at the current technological level.

But in any case, a small reflective surface doesn't make a drone invisible. It simply reduces its detection range by radar. And again, in any case, it's the AWACS that will detect it at maximum range, since its radar will undoubtedly outperform the radar on a helicopter, for example. Furthermore, the drone's projection from above is incomparably larger than from the side. So, no matter how you look at it, AWACS is a necessary and key element for organizing effective air defense against enemy drones and cruise missiles moving across terrain.

[Sergei Fonov]

"..., Ukrainian Nazi drones bypass our ground radars using the terrain."

Experts have long been saying that UAVs evade radars by sheer numbers, overloading air defense systems with a multitude of targets, and thus penetrate deep into Russia, but don't shoot down all of them. It seems no one knows that Ukrainian UAVs are conducting raids on southern Bashkortostan, including an attack on Sterlitamak. This is completely official information. Victory in such a strategic war would mean peace, and I suspect not on our terms, unless, of course, we use tactical nuclear weapons, otherwise Ukraine could acquire nuclear weapons as well.

[Netl]

Quote: Sergei Fonov

Experts have long been saying that UAVs bypass radars due to their numbers, overloading air defense systems with a number of targets.

These are different. But Ukrainian Nazis naturally use both methods;

Thanks to NATO intelligence, they know the locations of our fixed air defense sites (like the Pantsir missiles on towers). Hiding behind hills, riverbeds, tall buildings, and so on, they successfully fly deep into the country. Ground-based radars find them extremely difficult to detect. If their target is deep in the country and unprotected, they attack immediately.

But sometimes they need to attack a critical target, one that's separately protected by air defenses. In this case, they mass a sufficient number of drones nearby and attack simultaneously. This overloads the capabilities of the stationary systems, after which they can destroy even targets protected by air defenses.

If we had enough AWACS, they would track enemy drones from above, observe all their maneuvers, and send our helicopters and other aircraft to intercept them. They would attack the illuminated drones until they were completely destroyed.

[Sergei Fonov]

In Dubna there is, or still is, a plant capable of producing heavy reconnaissance drones, but it is going bankrupt.

[Netl]

Quote: Sergei Fonov

reconnaissance drones, but it is going bankrupt.

Well, yes. There's a branch called "Kronstadt" in Dubna. But their heavy drone, the Helios, which could have been used for AWACS, was never completed.

And the main product - the medium Orion, according to the results of the SVO, turned out to be unclaimed (expensive, but at the same time easy targets for air defense)

[Sergei Fonov]

Bankrupt a plant for a debt of 9 (nine) million rubles??? Well, why not? After all, it's not Rusnano.

[Netl]

Quote: Sergei Fonov

bankruptcy of the plant for a debt of 9 (nine) million

The amount seems ridiculous, but to be honest, I'm completely out of the loop.

[Igor M.]

Peter1First, the first batch of Zubr turrets has been delivered to the army:

And here is the operation of the razor installation:

[Peter1First]

I can't see the link to the laser installation, and the fact that the "Zubr" has gone into service is certainly good, but we need a whole herd of such bison, not just individual specimens!

[Netl]

Quote: ANIMAL

judging by the ratings, he'll soon be kicked out of the Bundestag

Elections only in 2029

Quote: ANIMAL

our government will stop energy supplies

There's nothing to stop there. As part of its support for Ukrainian Nazism, the German government has voluntarily reduced purchases from Russia to a minimum, to the detriment of its own economy.

[Mikhail Drabkin]

A comparison of the goals of the Strategic Military Operations (SVO), proclaimed on February 21, 2022, with the current results and the major revision of the new goals, the very fact that the SVO has continued for a fifth year, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces' "I fly wherever I want" bombing of Russia's strategic assets, signifies Russia's strategic defeat today. There are no two opinions here, and the entire propaganda of "we are fighting the entire West" is reminiscent of the slogan "workers of the world, unite."

Ask Naryshkin why he wisely exercised caution on that memorable February 21, 2022.

[Nastia makarova]

Well then, shall we wrap it up?

[Sergei Fonov]

"Well then, shall we wrap this up?"

If things continue like this, then what the president and the government are doing must definitely be curtailed. Everyone knows this. But only a select few know the conditions under which this should happen.

[Nastia makarova]

most likely after the liberation of the entire Donbass

[Sergei Fonov]

"Most likely after the liberation of the entire Donbass."

Perhaps more relevant is not “after what,” but “under what conditions will all this happen?”

[nik-mazur]

Quote: Mikhail Drabkin

The very fact that the Central Military District continues for a fifth year, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces' "I fly wherever I want" bombing of Russia's strategic assets, signifies Russia's strategic defeat today.

Isn't it the same on the Ukrainian side? They've been fighting for five years, and we're bombing whatever they want, anywhere. But somehow, that doesn't mean Ukraine's strategic defeat.

[Pravodel]

This Nazi miscarriage will soon be expelled from the Bundestag.

If only it were just him!... They'll throw this one out, and another one will come just like him, or even worse... And yet nothing will change in the German (fascist) policy towards Russia!..
How can Russia avoid having to take Berlin again!?

[fruc]

But Merz apparently has information that is not available to the general public.

Perhaps their Defense Council (Führungsstab der Streitkräfte) has information and a hidden mobilization is underway in Germany, and we are not aware of it.

[Roman 11]

Quote: frruc

Perhaps their Defense Council (Führungsstab der Streitkräfte) has information and a hidden mobilization is underway in Germany, and we are not aware of it.

They are preparing to deport all the men from the independent country

[Zoldat_A]

What if we try to stop filling German storage facilities with gas?
Will he continue to joke in the same spirit?

[dmi.pris1]

What Merz is right about is that if you fight like samurai, who have only one path, you will not see victory.

[fruc]

Zoldat_A
What if we try to stop filling German storage facilities with gas?

Well, Germany already buys the lion's share of LNG from the US and the Middle East. And they clearly don't need our gas.

[Krasnoyarsk]

Quote: Zoldat_A

What if we try to stop filling German storage facilities with gas?

What are you talking about!!! Do you want to send our billionaires packing? Growing trade is everything to us.
Whoever our president meets with, he desperately will note an increase in trade turnover.
One gets the impression that he gets up and goes to bed with thoughts of trade turnover.

[Zoldat_A]

Quote: Krasnoyarsk

What are you talking about!!! Do you want to send our billionaires packing? Growing trade is everything to us.
Whoever our president meets with, he will definitely note the increase in trade turnover.

It feels like our strategic industries are turning into Magnit or Auchan. I was talking to one manager... Sales grew incredibly during his first six months. Then they simply held at the same high level. But they didn't grow! They fired him... We need steady, even if just a little, growth. He regretted setting the bar high from the start—but it was too late.
So, what's going on? You're not interested in results, only in "constant growth"? What a stupid tactic...

[Netl]

Quote: Zoldat_A

So, it turns out that I'm not interested in the result, I'm only interested in "constant growth"

Growth is one of the performance indicators, most likely included in their KPIs.
And if a specific company isn't growing, despite the country's average growth, it means managers aren't doing their job right now. Growth, even strong in previous periods, indicates they've gobbled up a chunk of the market that wasn't previously captured due to previous shortcomings, after which the ideas disappeared.

[sgrabik]

Apparently this is the only thing that really worries him.

[novel66]

After resignation, he will immediately become sane and free-thinking.

[Zoldat_A]

Quote: novel xnumx

After resignation, he will immediately become sane and free-thinking.

Specifically about Merz, given his pedigree, I doubt it...

[novel66]

Breed characteristics are of the utmost importance

[snow mountain]

What if we try to stop filling German storage facilities with gas?

Our "common people" will never agree to this.

[Zoldat_A]

Quote: Schneeberg

What if we try to stop filling German storage facilities with gas?

Our "common people" will never agree to this.

As for the "cons," I see that the "universalists" don't approve...

[Zoldat_A]

Quote: Zoldat_A

Quote: Schneeberg

What if we try to stop filling German storage facilities with gas?

Our "common people" will never agree to this.

As for the "cons," I see that the "universalists" don't approve...

Break through ...
As our company commander used to say on any occasion: "If only we had grenades..."

[Yun Klob]

Then Merz has nothing to worry about.

[carpenter]

Russia should end this war as soon as possible, it has no chance of winning it.

He said "pubic hair" and took another dose of "snow" to calm himself down.

[Lisa Kerner-Timoshenko]

No, MerzLer is not a drug addict, like his guest today, Sselya!

[Gavrilo Princip]

Victory is the demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine with the signing of the act of capitulation.

[Krasnoyarsk]

Quote: Gavrilo Princip

Victory is the demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine with the signing of the act of capitulation.

Unfortunately, looking at the progress of the SVO, I am beginning to doubt this very outcome of the SVO.
Most likely, since negotiations have begun, Donbass is all ours, and we will return the rest

[Totor5]

Yes, Ukraine cannot be overcome by the Great Stand.

[Gavrilo Princip]

Merz: Russia has no chance of defeating Ukraine

Until this dude gets hit on the head by a dummy from Oreshnik, he will continue to reason leisurely.

[Krasnoyarsk]

Quote: Gavrilo Princip

Bye to this dude

Why did you insult me? a man from the Don?

[Amateur]

But Merz apparently has information that is not available to the general public.

One Soviet president has already been named "Best German of the Year." Let's stock up on sunflower seeds (as part of import substitution).

[Same lech]

But Merz apparently has information that is not available to the general public.

Perhaps Merz knows the balance of power within the Kremlin elite.
And as we know, she is capable of causing great trouble for our country.

[Boris Sergeev]

So Russia has no intention of winning - Peskov stated that the Kremlin only needs to improve its negotiating position.

[Monster_Fat]

Crisis psychology identifies the following stages of moving away from propaganda-induced zombification:
1- Disbelief: this cannot be, since we have heard all our lives that it must be “this way” and no other;
2- Denial: the psyche defends itself from stress by refusing to believe in the reality of what is happening, this cannot be, as seen in point number one;
3-Anger: emotions of anger appear, blaming others - they did not foresee, deceived, did not act properly;
4-Bargaining: attempts to reach an agreement within oneself, thinking about how to “fix” the situation, attempts to find alternative solutions so as not to “lose face”;
5- Depression: awareness of irreversibility, the impossibility of changing something due to a lack of strength and resources to do so, accompanied by sadness and apathy.
6- Acceptance: resignation to the situation, willingness to live with new conditions and in new circumstances, acceptance of the inevitable...

[Totor5]

And the pedophile Freud claimed that all problems stem from the desire to have sex with one's parents... And he believed that pumping patients full of drugs and sleeping with them was a completely valid form of network therapy.
Of course, you can string an owl on anything, but it doesn't always work according to the owl stringing textbook.

[duschman80-81]

When there is trouble with your head, it is a real trouble-trouble.

[Havoc]

A colossus with feet of clay—we've heard that before. But whoever said it shot themselves for lack of a better word. Has history really taught these (strangely, the censor won't allow this word, even though it's in print) nothing?

[opera fan]

The situation was different then: the whole world was against Germany. Now, practically the whole world is against Russia.

[faiver]

Well, until the Kremlin realizes that a state like Ukraine shouldn't exist, he's right...

[Totor5]

And who should realize this - the Ukrainian Matvienko, the Ukrainian Medinsky, or the Kiev Jew Dmitriev?

[Sergey Mitinsky]

Russia has no chance of defeating Ukraine, Merz stated, without specifying who has a chance of achieving this coveted victory.

This is because he understands perfectly well that no one has a chance of winning at all.

Neither Russia, which is unlikely to achieve its goals, nor Ukraine, which has been bitten off and has lost its key lands with resources, nor, especially, the EU, which opened its mouth wide to bite off its bright future, but bit off a gloomy future.

If we are talking about winners in this war, then it is Asia, where the large economy of defeated Europe is flowing.

China, India, all of Southeast Asia, parts of Africa... These are the winners in this war.

The winners were those with resources and those with the labor force capable of developing those resources at a competitive price. Neither Germany nor the rest of Europe are on this list.
Russia will not win, but it has resources, unlike Europe, so not everything is as bad and hopeless as for the EU.

[Lisa Kerner-Timoshenko]

...a decimated Ukraine that has lost its key lands and resources...
It's unclear what the goal of the SVO is: to liberate Donbass from Bandera's Kyiv, or does Russia need Donbass's resources?

[Sergey Mitinsky]

The goal of the SVO is the whole of Ukraine, and the "resources of Donbass" are just a plus bonus for Russia and, accordingly, a minus bonus for Ukraine and the EU.
Usually when big goals can't be achieved, people talk about small goals.
It's like a maximum program and a minimum program.

[Sergei Fonov]

"The winners are those who have resources and those who have workers."
"Russia will not win, but it has resources unlike Europe..."
Russia has natural resources, but no labor force. Asian migrants are a non-resource. There are no technological resources, no engineering skills, no patents. There's no desire to develop along China's path. We have everything, or almost everything, but we lack the desire to develop our own country. When money is abroad and families live outside of Russia, it means there's no faith in our own country.

[nik-mazur]

Quote: Sergei Fonov

There is no desire to develop along the Chinese path

To develop along the Chinese path, you first need a billion people. Desire alone is clearly not enough.

[Sergei Fonov]

What happened to the PRC? There were over 1,5 billion of them, and it seems there was no war or plague. Incidentally, development along the "Chinese path" is wrong. Stalin did something similar when he developed the USSR, borrowing technology from the West and using it to build industry. The USSR didn't have a population of 1 billion back then, and Germany, the US, France, Italy, England, and many other countries still don't. But desire alone, you're right, is clearly not enough. As Erhard L., the father of the German post-war miracle, wrote, this requires confidence in the domestic currency, cheap resources, and a skilled workforce. What do we have? Probably only cheap resources. We have a larger population than post-war Germany, but skilled workers—not that there are many of them, in fact, there are catastrophically few of them. And what about engineering talent? We need money for development at home, but it's being exported abroad, both by the oligarchs and the government.

[Krasnoyarsk]

Quote: Sergey Mitinsky

Russia will not win, but it has resources, unlike Europe,

Russia has resources? What are you talking about? The Alekperovs, the Millers, and their ilk have resources; I won't list them all. They just pay taxes on their property. And that's it. non-progressive, as in the whole world.

[Vovanych007]

Both Nazis at the Euro-Sabbath took the same crap and, unusually, both of them got the same amount.

[Vladimir - USSR]

Russia should end this war as soon as possible, it has no chance of winning it.

Has anyone translated this jerk's last name from Russian to German?

[Zaurbek]

It depends on what you mean by "Victory" in 404?! Anyone can win here. Political scientists generally see victory in any outcome of 404.
They're just keeping quiet about the lands and assets sold to organizations like BlackRock & Co. and the concessions for all mineral resources in the US. So, let it be a bunch of landless, resource-less, energy-less, transit-money-less Indians and Slavs. That's regardless of the outcome.

[Alexey Lantukh]

It all depends on what we mean by victory. Russia has two options. First, defeat Ukraine with its complete, unconditional surrender. Second, make peace with the Russians, retaining control of all the territories they already control, including the entire Donbas and Crimea.
The first option is not a possibility, and the second has nuances: recognition or non-recognition of these territories as Russian territory, accession or non-accession to NATO, denazification or non-denazification, and partial disarmament or non-denazification of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. And all of these nuances could be contested and not implemented by Ukraine.

[alexputnik17]

Things aren't going so well in our Kingdom, but this Nazi jerk isn't the one to tell us what to do.
And the junkie isn't tired of riding? On an official visit... Or he doesn't remember where he's been... On an official visit, serious people, maximum They go once a year.

[Lisa Kerner-Timoshenko]

As a German, I read the German media every day...what won't they write...it's a comedy! But the problem is that too many Germans believe the lies of the Goebbel media!

[faiver]

hmm..., and what does this remind me of?

[Alexey Lantukh]

The problem is that too many Germans believe the lies of the Goebbel media!

What's surprising? That's just how humans are. Most people trust their TV or the internet, since most don't speak foreign languages. True, translators have appeared, but they're used by more advanced users. Moreover, every nation loves its own land, and when they're told from abroad that you're not like this, but this is how you should be, not everyone can be convinced otherwise. However, some people still succumb to propaganda and may even set fire to relay cabinets on the railway or even blow someone up.
It's probably easier for you. You've seen and lived in two social systems, and unlike young people, you know their strengths and weaknesses. It's difficult to reprogram you.

[Lisa Kerner-Timoshenko]

Yes, many of us in the GDR had the ability to "read between the lines," and besides, I'm the daughter of a party organizer. And my late parents were true communists, not just "party members"!
Don't be fooled by "slogans"...

[Serik Bur]

Quote: Totor5

Yes, Ukraine cannot be overcome by the Great Stand.

Yes, not Ukraine, Ukraine is a proxy, but the EU and NATO are more serious.

[Volunteer Marek]

Yes, yes, that's exactly what one of his predecessors said. And right up until 1945. It's hereditary.

[snow mountain]

Quote: ANB

If Ukraine cuts pensions and social benefits to raise money, it won't last long.

He's already saying that Germans should work more!

[Jacques sekavar]

Apparently, Mertz means by victory the defeat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, just as the Red Army once defeated the fascist Germany. This is definitely not in sight - the war is in its fifth year and not even its own territory has been liberated, and the persistent desire of the Russian Federation to conclude a separate deal only confirms this.

[Roman 11]

Well, if the war lasts 50 years like in the Caucasus, then Europe and America won't survive either. Afghanistan took them all 20 years.

[Ratmir_Ryazan]

Russia should end this war as soon as possible, it has no chance of winning it.

From the couch it looks funny, but those who are now going to the task will mostly agree with Merz.

If nothing changes in terms of commanders' responsibility for preserving personnel, their provision, and providing cover from drones with up-to-date electronic warfare, air defense, and artillery, then we will have no chance of winning.

Where's the Pantsir-SMD? Where's the Derivatsiya-PVO? Where's the electronic warfare system in sufficient quantities, as well as transport and drones?

Why does Ukraine, with Western aid equal to Russia's annual income from oil and gas, better provide for its army?

I have no words.

[Carlos Hall]

"He doesn't have a single chance," says this idiot, but he fails to mention that Russia controls over 120,000 km² of Ukrainian territory, while Germany's area is just over 300,000 km².

[Sergei Fonov]

Germany's area is 357,400 square kilometers, and "slightly more" is 57,400 square kilometers. The Luhansk and Donetsk republics are approximately 26,600 and 26,500 square kilometers, respectively. And where does the 120,000 square kilometers come from? Or is that including Kherson and Zaporizhzhia? That's another 28,400 and 27,100 square kilometers, for a total of 108,600 square kilometers. True, we don't yet control Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, and Crimea is 27,000 square kilometers, but it's been part of Russia since 2014. We all want more, but alas, this is reality.

[Carlos Hall]

The fact is that Russia controls 120,000 square kilometers of the former Soviet Republic of Ukraine, while Germany's territory is only 357,000 square kilometers. Thus, Russia controls an area in Ukraine equal to one-third of Germany's.

[Sergei Fonov]

So where are these 120,000 square kilometers, if the area of ​​the LPR, DPR, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions is only 108,6 square kilometers, and the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions have not yet been fully liberated? You can put up all sorts of figures, but they won't bring us any closer to victory.

[Rakitin]

If we leave aside the traditional empty talk about "freedom and a flourishing backside," then in essence Merz is not far from the truth - Putin's Russia is truly incapable of winning this war using conventional methods.
For this, there is neither the human resource (which Comrade Stalin had, having inherited a peasant country with a huge young, unpretentious and able-bodied population), nor advanced technologies (which cannot exist without an advanced industrial and scientific base, which the Russian Federation does not have and is not expected to have under the current system), nor a strong rear (which does not exist without a strong economy).

Basically, the plan to solve everything in one fell swoop in 2022 has failed. And there still isn't another plan. And who knows where to crawl out of this mess.

[Alexey Lantukh]

Merz: Russia has no chance of defeating Ukraine

I'll translate from German into Russian: Russia will most likely strike Ukraine with nuclear weapons and, possibly, Germany.

[Glagol1]

The Germans deserve this organism as chancellor. The country isn't developing; in terms of GDP PPP, it's behind Russia, and the gap will only widen. They've lost markets, access to convenient and affordable energy, and have let in millions of migrants. Well, go ahead and keep up the good work.

[agel26r]

Of course, this can go on forever and until we have completely dismantled this whole gay chicken coop.

[james]

He is right, because wars are not won by begging for negotiations and trading strategic raw materials with the enemy.

[sgrabik]

Whatever a louse is, he tries to pretend to be more and more loudly, and that is exactly what is happening in Merz’s case.

[musorg]

And he draws his conclusions based on our gloved-handed military operations, just like everyone else! I completely fail to understand the benefit of waging war with surgical methods. If significantly fewer of our soldiers are dying, then show us. And if we stretch it out for another two years, the losses will only increase!

[guest]

Quote: musorg

What is the benefit of waging war using surgical methods?

Benefit for whom? Some understand benefit solely as material benefits, and that's what they receive, although some of these thieves are finally starting to be put behind bars.

[edeligor]

After this individual came to power, my German-hating genes awakened. My hatred for this ethnic group overwhelms everything else... and that's not normal. I recall Soviet films about the German occupation—Merz's face is the standard Soviet propaganda image of SS officers giving orders to massacre defenseless people.

[james]

You're right
https://topwar.ru/uploads/posts/2025-12/7ac5e905f9_merc.webp
A fragment from the film
https://youtu.be/7DN7C29qwkQ

[Anyuta Glorious]

No, it was addressed specifically to Moscow. Because they're sitting quietly. Yesterday, they battered Sterlitamak and Samara... The enemy does whatever it wants in Russia, with Russia. You can ridicule them all, tease them, make witty remarks, and make wisecracks as much as you want, but it won't help matters. Europe has endless money! They'll never tire of it, and they won't stop at nothing; they'll endlessly arm Ukraine, the Balts, the Poles, the Azerbaijanis, the Kazakhs, and so on. Our grandfathers and great-grandfathers reached Berlin in four years... But it turns out we're not them. In this age of technology, etc., we simply can't end with a victory for the Central Military District. Listening to Peskov, it turns out we're talking about literally tens of kilometers. I often think of my grandfathers... What would they say from heaven, looking down on all this? Both of them fought, reached Berlin, and returned with victory.

[guest]

Quote: Anyuta Glorious

But it turns out we are not them.

They simply had a real Supreme Command, and we...

[nik-mazur]

Quote: guest

They just had a real Supreme Command

The real Supreme Commander-in-Chief allowed the Germans to reach Moscow, actually.

[guest]

Quote from: nik-mazur

The real Supreme Commander-in-Chief allowed the Germans to reach Moscow, actually.

Do you have the same opinion about Alexander I, who also let the French in?

[nik-mazur]

Quote: guest

About Alexander 1... Do you share the same opinion?

The same - what kind of one?

[guest]

Quote from: nik-mazur

The same - what kind of one?

Well, your negative attitude towards Stalin is not a secret.

[nik-mazur]

Quote: guest

Your negative attitude towards Stalin is not a secret.

I have a calm attitude towards Stalin – he was not the worst option for the country in specific historical circumstances, but he was not the best either.
Although, of course, from the Stalinists' point of view, there are only two possible attitudes toward Stalin: either enthusiastic or sharply negative. There is no third option.

[Prisoner]

If your grandfathers really made it to Berlin, they would have given you an Izhitsa for today's post. During the Great Patriotic War, hysteria got you thrown up against the wall. To draw conclusions, you need to read not blogs and newspapers, but have information that even a fool wouldn't reveal to the public during a war. Although, you won't get it anyway.

[nik-mazur]

Quote: Anyuta Glorious

The enemy does whatever he wants, however he wants, in Russia and with Russia.

So, the enemy wants to set oil refineries on fire and smash windows in residential buildings, but the enemy doesn’t want to push Russia out of Donbass and Crimea?
Interesting version.

Quote: Anyuta Glorious

Our grandfathers and great-grandfathers reached Berlin in 4 years.

First, by letting the Germans reach Moscow and losing twenty million people. Something everyone always forgets for some reason.

[Prisoner]

A categorical and presumptuous statement in the spirit of Hitler and Goebbels. Merz is a Nazi degenerate, and this, unlike his delusions, is an axiom!

[Viktor Sergeev]

I echoed the words of my father and grandfather in 1942. They, too, serving Hitler, believed in victory. It's a shame my father wasn't killed during WWII.

[Brabus1945]

The Kremlin's second tower, which is devouring Russia's interests, is waiting for the Western economy to switch to a war footing and is still painting burgundy lines. Let's talk seriously, we want new drones; these are our people's lives. The military operation is being carried out in a relaxed manner; for ordinary, simple people, this is only war.

Over the course of several months, companies from Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia sent a large batch of finished unmanned aerial vehicles and components for their assembly to the Ukrainian army.

In recent months, Baltic companies have supplied Kyiv with large quantities of equipment, RIA Novosti reports. Lithuanian UAB Tomiksas sent 5 components, and UAB Lokmita shipped 1350 thermal imaging camera modules for drones.

Estonia's Meridein Grupp OU and Latvia's ELKO Grupa AS delivered 3900 completed aircraft. Lithuania's Remtika UAB and Dialog LT UAB donated 1650 drones and 4 propellers, while NT Service UAB delivered 980 electronic warfare systems.