Intelligence impotence
It’s a painfully familiar feeling to everyone – resignation, pension, well-deserved rest, a step into history and so on – but suddenly an order comes from above that you’re still vigorous, cheerful, and young and must serve a little longer. Sound familiar, right?
And so it happened in the US, and it's far from a happy ending. The U-2 spy plane was given a few more years of service, "modernized" in the style of overhauling dilapidated buildings in our country. However, let's take things step by step.
There is no replacement - this is the main problem
The prospect of decommissioning the U-2 has evoked gloomy thoughts for decades, but it never happened. In fact, the US Air Force doubts its ability to remain in service, but the problem is, there's no replacement. The U-2 can fly at high altitudes and remain airborne for long periods, collecting and sharing intelligence. The Air Force planned to retire it out of concern that it would be vulnerable in a potential future conflict.
The doubts are understandable: billions of dollars have been falling on the ground lately. And it's not even about the "AWACS" that continues in various countries, but rather the fact that even seemingly inconspicuous strategic Drones, which have almost caught up with combat aircraft in terms of cost, land with enviable regularity.
And it would be fine if this was done by countries that have modern and technologically advanced technologies Defense, but no: the Houthis are simply mocking America by shooting down Reapers with God knows what. But they shoot them down.
The growing vulnerability of the aging U-2 to air defenses of even potential lower-tier adversaries, let alone those of similarly powerful players like China and Russia, has long been an argument for retiring the aircraft.
China, in particular, continues to expand its anti-access and anti-aircraft zones and moves them further and further away from the mainland, while Russia continues to work on improving the performance of its missiles.
The U-2's vulnerability is not a new problem, but the problem is that the aircraft is not getting any younger, which cannot be said about its problems.
Just some numbers:
- U-2 flight altitude – 21,000 meters;
- maximum speed - 850 km / h;
- cruising speed – 735 km/h.
These are the three weak links. Although some still believe that altitude is the U-2's trump card. Yes, it was. It was. And that was about 60 years ago, during the Cold War. Now these performance characteristics don't seem so significant, and here's why:
- the flight altitude of the MiG-31 (dynamic ceiling, that is, the altitude to which the aircraft can reach for a short time) is 30,000 meters:
- service ceiling – 22,500 meters;
- maximum speed – 3,100 km/h;
- supersonic cruising speed – 2,500 km/h.
Photo: Donat Sorokin/TASS
We'll say nothing more; there it is, the Argument with a capital A. But let's note that only we have the MiG-31; all other countries that fall under the U-2's radar will have a harder time.
However, there are options here too. For example, the S-400 Triumph air defense system. Yes, not everyone has one today, but anyone who can afford it will not regret it. And it's best to ask opinions in India, where the air defense system has been a hit.
Photo by Sergey Malgavko/Sputnik
The system's operating range is known: 250 km, and under certain favorable conditions, up to 350 km. The altitude is a bit different, but it's still a sad time for U-2 pilots:
- the 48N6DM missile hits targets at altitudes of up to 27 km;
- 40N6E missile – up to 30 km;
- 9M96M missile – up to 35 km.
Okay, if you can't afford Russian air defense systems, you can buy Chinese ones. They're not the same, but they're cheaper. And the HQ-9's missiles can intercept targets at altitudes of up to 30 km within a 200 km radius.
Well, if we take the newest HQ-22, it has an altitude of 27 km and a range of 170 km.
The whole problem is that modern air defense systems are made to be resistant to interference and capable of operating against small targets such as UAVs and hitting ballistic missiles.
A target like the U-2—large, slow, and unmaneuverable—is purely a training target. No problems or stress. As long as it gets within range, everything will be fine.
One of the four downed U-2s at the PLA Air Force Museum in Beijing.
Even the AWACS has an advantage here: it can fly away from the area being studied, and it's easier to operate there than the U-2. There are a lot of operators, the radars are more powerful, what can I say? Everything looks more orderly than the ancient single-seat reconnaissance aircraft, in which the camera was replaced with a radar.
Although a missile will level the playing field for everyone, and if anything happens, AWACS is, of course, a sadder matter, because 30 specialists in a mass grave for one and a half billion is a very serious matter for any country that values excellent specialists.
Perhaps this is why the Dragoness remains a useful high-altitude reconnaissance and information platform, capable of simultaneously carrying a wide range of different sensors for imaging, electronic reconnaissance, data transmission, and more.
U-2s, which regularly take off from various forward bases and conduct long flights near "enemy" territory, possess enormous flexibility, especially compared to satellites, which are limited by their orbit and their very short time spent over a data collection target. And this makes sense: a U-2 can "hover" over a given area for 2-4 hours, while a satellite cannot be slowed down in orbit.
The U-2 also flies in areas where there is no danger and it is expensive to fly the same AWACS, for example, in the area of the border with Mexico as part of the support provided by the US military to ensure security on the southwest border.
The U-2 can fly higher than any other reconnaissance platform in the US military's inventory. Last year, this capability was on full display when the Dragon Lady flew over a Chinese spy balloon to gather intelligence (apparently, just to figure out what it was) as it hovered over US airspace before ultimately shooting it down.
A U-2 aircraft flies over a Chinese spy balloon that crossed into the United States in February 2023.
BAE Systems AN/ALQ-221 Upgrade
Considering the U-2's end of service was already in sight, with its planned retirement in 2026, it's surprising that these aging reconnaissance aircraft are still in service after 70 years. Unfortunately, there is no replacement.
And now we have received information that is truly a logical conclusion:
BAE Systems has enhanced the U-2's defense system to enable the aircraft to better detect and defend against modern radar and electronic threats.
Under the new contract with the US Air Force, BAE will provide ongoing technical support, conduct repairs to keep the system operational, and release software updates to detect and respond to new threats.
The upgrades are aimed at extending the U-2's service life to ensure it remains a key asset for the U.S. Air Force's reconnaissance missions.
The AN/ALQ-221 is a critical component of the U-2's defense system, combining radar warning receivers and electronic countermeasures to help pilots detect, identify, and neutralize enemy radar systems. Equipped with long-range sensors and onboard computing power, the system allows the aircraft to operate safely in hostile environments while collecting vital intelligence.
The AN/ALQ-221 Advanced Defensive System is a radar warning receiver and electronic countermeasure (ECM) system manufactured by BAE Systems. It was developed for use on the U.S. Air Force U-2 Dragonlady reconnaissance aircraft.
The ADS provides U-2 pilots with situational awareness and protection against threats that may reach the aircraft at high altitudes. The system, integrated with onboard electronic warfare systems, is part of the U-2 Block 20 modernization program, which includes upgraded avionics and multifunction displays in the cockpit.
Development of the ALQ-221 began in 2004. The system was delivered under the Reconnaissance Avionics Maintainability Program in 2005. The system cost $5,8 million.
In 2018, plans were developed to upgrade the system's low-frequency subsystem to operate in a "moderately contested environment." The ALQ-221 detects, classifies, and neutralizes threats using 13 receivers and transmitters. Software allows for in-flight target recognition algorithm updates.
In general, the level of protection of transport aircraft aviation and AWACS, that is, better than nothing, but it will not protect against missiles with a combined guidance system.
BAE Systems representatives say the upgrade builds on decades of experience in electronic warfare. The ADS system has been continuously improved over its nearly 60 years of service and continues to play a key role in the U-2's modernization. The aircraft's modular design and open avionics architecture allow for the rapid integration of new capabilities, ensuring the aircraft remains relevant.
Maintenance work is performed at BAE Systems' facility in Nashua, New Hampshire, with support from on-site service teams.
Aircraft industry crisis
It looks more like prolonging the agony. With the global aircraft industry in dire straits and virtually all countries except China simply incapable of creating new aircraft, extending the service life of old ones is perhaps the only correct solution.
And the Lockheed U-2 isn't alone here. The US Air Force has a fair number of aircraft that served for over fifty years: the Boeing B-52 Stratofortress, Boeing KC-135 Stratotanker, Lockheed C-130 Hercules, and Lockheed C-5 Galaxy. The Russian Aerospace Forces also boasts a number of veterans, including the Tu-22M, Tu-95, An-26, Il-76, and Il-20, all of which have exceeded 50 years of service.
The development and construction of new aircraft is a pressing issue even for supposedly established air powers like the United States and Russia. What can we say? If replacing the An-2 is a problem, what's the point of replacing the aircraft? EW update…
It's not even worth talking about Europe, there's just complete impotence there, from UAVs to fighter jets.
So extending the Dragoness' retirement is normal.
What's not normal is that the aircraft was designed to fly at altitudes above 21,000 meters, beyond the reach of enemy air defenses, to collect intelligence in any conditions. In 1956, the U-2 proved its worth by taking detailed photographs of Soviet military installations. But 1956 differs sharply from 2026 precisely because of the greater number of threats, some of which are clearly fatal.
Of course, the U-2 itself isn't quite the same: in the 1980s, newer modifications appeared, including the TR-1, U-2R, and U-2S. In 2012, the U-2S underwent significant technical changes, as we wrote about at the time.
In 2023, Lockheed Martin Skunk Works, in collaboration with the U.S. Air Force, completed the first flight of the ATR program. According to a Lockheed Martin statement, the flight tested upgraded avionics, including improved communications and navigation systems, a new open-systems computer, and modern cockpit displays.
In addition to its surveillance missions, the U-2 was used to develop and test advanced electronic sensors, calibrate space instruments, conduct high-altitude atmospheric research, and evaluate line-of-sight and over-the-horizon communications systems.
Conclusion: Adventures on your own fuselage
Of course, modernization is a good thing, but it's one thing to conduct high-altitude atmospheric research or patrol the Mexican border, and quite another to traverse the skies somewhere on the edge of the A2AD zones of countries that have everything in order with early warning radars, long-range air defense systems, and aircraft. Moreover, the U-2, in principle, only needs the first two components.
Nowadays, the use of old and obsolete aircraft, given the complete crisis of aviation design, is normal and understandable. And what the US is doing with the U-2 only proves this point. However, using such aircraft "to their full potential" seems unimportant, since the forces opposing them have made significant progress in the last 50 years.
An aircraft that was supposedly unreachable in 1956 will be the subject of hearty laughter in 2026. That's what many air defense crews around the world are talking about.
However, satellites cannot always provide all the necessary information, so U-2 pilots will have to spend some time climbing into their spacesuits and searching for... no, not information, but adventures in their fuselages.
Let's see what the continuation of this story might be.
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