Military Review

Denis Dvornikov: Bloody “agreement” in Nagorno-Karabakh, or “Goble plan” -3?

45
Scenario that should not be allowed



Geopolitics, as an applied discipline, has always been pragmatic and therefore cynical. In our difficult times, the unprincipled geopolitical wars went not only beyond the limits of morality, but also simple logic. It is enough to recall Powela's test tube and other examples when “all means are good” in achieving international goals. That is why the rumors about a possible, so-called "treaty war" in Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) between the NKR Defense Army and Azerbaijan should not be immediately deducted to the category of groundless conspiracy. In private conversations of experts, one way or another involved in the discussion of the problem of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, the phrase "treaty war" periodically begins to sound alarmingly often and is associated with informal contacts and non-public meetings in high offices of international agencies not only Russia, but also other mediators .

The essence of the "contractual" armed conflict is understandable. The parties, by prior agreement (or better to say “collusion”), initiate hostilities that continue until a certain result is achieved. What can serve as such a result? Why can voluntary and concerted killing look attractive in someone's eyes?

In situations that are commonly considered dead ends, any way out of the crisis can be considered. The process of gaining independence by the people of Nagorno-Karabakh, for various reasons, was brought to a deep impasse. Oil Renaissance of Azerbaijan, continuous saber-rattling weapons “on the east side” makes the stalemate very nervous. It is on these nerves that some "good intermediaries" want to play. Their logic is as follows. As a result of the short war, the army of Azerbaijan seizes part of the territory, which is now controlled by Artsakh, and after the introduction of peacekeeping forces, a new border is drawn between the warring parties, which after some time becomes the subject of a treaty or other act that puts the final point in a multi-year conflict. Azerbaijan and its current president will be satisfied, if only because the territory controlled by Baku will be noticeably expanded compared to that inherited from Heydar Aliyev. According to the conditions of the game, the Armenian side should also be pleased, as part of the territory of Artsakh will remain behind it. International observers and mediators are also not in the bag, if only because the long-term smoldering conflict in Transcaucasia has been extinguished.

But something prevents to exclaim: "Grace, and only!". Perhaps, above all, the undoubted allusions of this hypothetical scheme (in any case, according to the final results) with the so-called “Goble plan”, the various versions of which also provided for territorial distinctions between the parties.

But all this, before and now - exclusively on paper and in the minds of the authors of insane design. Those who are ready to take such a scenario as seriously as possible should consider the following circumstances.

1. The contractual war between the Armenian and Azerbaijani forces can only have a beginning. The contract will not end, as the wounds of the previous slaughter are too fresh and painful. A war between nations, even if a large army of peacekeepers will stand between them (for example, under the auspices of the Eurocorps or the Visegrad group forming their own rapid reaction forces), can take the form of partisan and terrorist, go far beyond the original conflict zone. Hardly anyone has the strength to stop such a cruel confrontation.

2. Given the tense situation around Iran, even a “small contractual conflict” can turn into a full-scale regional war. According to the scenario, Azerbaijan will seek to cut off Armenians from the borders with Iran (by the way, one of the goals of the “Goble-1 plan” was just the elimination of the Armenian-Iranian border through the “exchange” of Meghri for Lachin controlled by Armenian forces), which will certainly force Tehran to interfere in conflict. As they say, "further everywhere."

3. Georgia may become an unwitting affected party. There are several risk factors. The presence of areas densely populated by Armenians and Azerbaijanis, refugee flows, the strongest pressure from Azerbaijan. It should not be forgotten that during Saakashvili’s rule, Georgia was actually turned into a transit appendage of Azerbaijan, and the timid hints of some new ministers regarding at least partial economic diversification have so far been stopped by official Baku.

4. Gradually losing adequacy in anti-Syrian battles, Turkey, even in the midst of a "treaty" war, may be an important participant in the events. How will Ankara behave, especially in the situation of the unpredictable "Kurdish peace process" and the slipping of provinces bordering on Syria into anarchy and chaos (as an analogue, we can recall how the support of the Afghan Mujahideen turned Pakistan from a relatively secular state into a permanent source of instability)? Will Ankara undertake attempts to solve its internal problems at the expense of adjacent territories of the former Soviet republics? In any case, the Turkish leadership, professing "neo-Ottoman" ideals, may decide that it cannot afford to remain "out of work."

5. Azerbaijan, which, according to the scenario, apparently has to become the initiator of an armed confrontation (after all, it is foolish to even fantasize that the Armenian side will start the conflict with an attempt to seize territories) should remember that this time it will be much more difficult to stop the Karabakh Defense Army with the help of the UN. Thus, one should consider the possibility that this whole adventure will end, if not on the Caspian coast, then, in any case, somewhere nearby, which can play a very negative role for historical prospects for the Aliyev regime.

Well and the main thing. Any war, even the most “contractual”, is the concrete lives of not only hundreds and thousands of combatants, but also civilians - children, old people and women. Specific ashots, rufates, rubens and samirs will die. Even "small blood" will generate a big wave of anger.

The concept of the foreign policy of the Russian Federation implies active mediation on the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh. Judging by the available information, recently steps have been taken to strengthen military-technical cooperation with Yerevan. Even if there is an insignificant probability of the implementation of the scenario described above, it is necessary to disavow it and stop it. God forbid that the "treaty war" does not go beyond the scope of "rumors" and conspiracy of fantasies.
Author:
Originator:
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45 comments
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  1. Lech from ZATULINKI
    Lech from ZATULINKI 17 May 2013 06: 20 New
    0
    I ADD FROM MYSELF -this situation is currently stalemate in the near future it will not be resolved, unless of course hehe the LIGHT OF DEMOCRACY (USA) wants to establish our democracy there then we will see another performance like the KOSOVA SCENARIO.
    1. afire
      afire 17 May 2013 14: 54 New
      +1
      we will see the next performance on the side of the KOSOVO SCENARIO.
      Nope, in my opinion, the United States does not need another conflict, if they participate, it will be behind the scenes, "without giving themselves away"
  2. MilaPhone
    MilaPhone 17 May 2013 06: 27 New
    0
    The scenario of a "treaty war" is too simple for this region, in which, despite its small size, very significant problems are intertwined. For instance; "Iran's nuclear program", "Europe's energy independence" and a lot of many emotions.
    1. xetai9977
      xetai9977 17 May 2013 07: 38 New
      +5
      Interestingly, the author himself believes in what he wrote? What is the "Karabakh defense army?" Everyone knows that Azerbaijan is opposed by the Armenian army. Think about this .. "Karabakh defense army" will reach the Caspian coast .... Why are the statements "Azerbaijan will try to cut off Armenia from Iran"? This also automatically means to involve the CSTO in the war. And here they are far from being fools .. If a war starts, it will be waged on the territory of Karabakh, that is, de jure on the territory of Azerbaijan, and there can be no talk of any "division of Karabakh".
      1. Alexander Romanov
        Alexander Romanov 17 May 2013 07: 53 New
        0
        Quote: xetai9977
        What is the “Karabakh defense army?” Everyone knows that Azerbaijan is opposed by the Armenian army

        And who is the president of Armenia?
        1. kNow
          kNow 17 May 2013 08: 19 New
          +1
          Quote: Alexander Romanov
          And who is the president of Armenia

          the one to whom the war is a native mother, rode to power in the wake of separatism and now the Armenians can’t get it out of the way.

          Quote: Alexander Romanov
          where are you from?

          From Azerbaijan laughing Conclusion - Azerbaijanis occupied Armenia
          1. MilaPhone
            MilaPhone 17 May 2013 09: 34 New
            +1
            Quote: kNow
            From Azerbaijan Conclusion - Azerbaijani occupied Armenia

            And Ilham Aliyev is a Kurd.
            Conclusion - Kurd occupied Azerbaijan. smile
            1. Yarbay
              Yarbay 17 May 2013 09: 52 New
              +2
              Quote: Milafon
              And Ilham Aliyev is a Kurd.

              Your evidence?)))))))))
              Quote: Milafon
              Conclusion - Kurd occupied Azerbaijan

              We have a multinational country and a person of any nationality can be elected as the President!
              Whoever Aliyev is, he is not a citizen of another country!
              1. MilaPhone
                MilaPhone 17 May 2013 10: 15 New
                0
                Quote: Yarbay
                Your evidence?)))))))))

                Well, since such a situation has gone that the president of Armenia is Azerbaijani, why not Aliyev be a Kurd. Do you have something against the Kurds?
                In general, I asked Mail.Ru who was Muslim Magomayev by nationality and suddenly came across Aliyev’s origin.
                Вот сылка:http://my.mail.ru/community/azebaijan.2010/2F84413AF33A81B2.html
                1. Yarbay
                  Yarbay 17 May 2013 11: 25 New
                  -1
                  Quote: Milafon

                  Well, since such a situation has gone that the president of Armenia is Azerbaijani, why not Aliyev be a Kurd. Do you have something against the Kurds?

                  Yes, I have nothing))))
                  Just why talk, why don’t you know ??
                  why speak with the mouth of Armenian sites?)))
                  Welcome proof of your words and I will rejoice with this with you!
                  1. MilaPhone
                    MilaPhone 17 May 2013 14: 05 New
                    -1
                    Quote: Yarbay
                    why speak with the mouth of Armenian sites?))) Give proof of your words and I will rejoice with this with you!

                    Interesting expression.
                    I have nothing to do with Armenian sites and I don’t know how to speak with their mouths. I wrote to you simply by typing letters on the keyboard of my computer.

                    ... Heydar Alirza oglu Aliyev was born in the city of Nakhichevan on May 10, 1923, a Kurd. Aliyev’s clan comes from a Kurdish khan tribe, some convincingly reiterate that Heydar’s mother is Izzet-Khanum is Armenian and her father is a purebred Kurdish by birth. Kurd Hasan Aliyev, secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Azerbaijan (brother of Alirza, Heydar’s father) His brothers Agil and Jalal are academics, cousin Huseyn Aliyev is a famous Soviet artist. After graduating from the Nakhichevan Pedagogical College in 1939, he studied at the Faculty of Architecture of the Azerbaijan Industrial Institute (now the Azerbaijan State Oil Academy). The outbreak of war did not allow him to complete his education ....

                    Of course, this is not proof just a clipping from an insignificant link from Mile.ru.
                    1. Yarbay
                      Yarbay 17 May 2013 15: 15 New
                      -2
                      Quote: Milafon
                      Of course, this is not proof just a clipping from an insignificant link from Mile.ru.

                      Dear so I about it)))
                2. Yarbay
                  Yarbay 17 May 2013 12: 21 New
                  -1
                  Quote: Milafon
                  Вот сылка:http://my.mail.ru/community/azebaijan.2010/2F84413AF33A81B2.html

                  Alas, it doesn’t open, but surely a repost from Armenian sites !!)))
                3. Our
                  Our 19 December 2013 18: 11 New
                  +1
                  Mother has Kurdish roots. In Azerbaijani society, Nationality follows the line of the father. Any mother can be.
            2. Yeraz
              Yeraz 17 May 2013 11: 08 New
              +1
              Quote: Milafon
              And Ilham Aliyev is a Kurd.

              there is such a rumor, BUT his mother is Azerbaijani. And his wife is also Azerbaijani !!
          2. Apollo
            Apollo 17 May 2013 09: 42 New
            +1
            Quote: kNow
            From Azerbaijan Conclusion - Azerbaijani occupied Armenia


            the fact of the matter is that in Armenia there is a struggle of two clans, the Karabakh and the local one.
            Representatives of the first clan, Robert Kocharian and current President of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan.
            Representative of the local nomenclature, Levon Ter-Petrosyan.
            Actually, the population and local nomenclature of Armenia are dissatisfied with the dominance of Karabakh Armenians in power. It was the Karabakh Armenians who, in the wake of rabid nationalism and the war with Azerbaijan, seized all power in Armenia. In general, a unique situation arises when a citizen of Azerbaijan Serzh Sargsyan usurps power in Armenia.
            1. Apollo
              Apollo 17 May 2013 09: 47 New
              +1
              Kocharyan Robert Sedrakovich: biography


              Second President of Armenia Robert Sedrakovich Kocharyan was born 31 on August 1954 of the year in Stepanakert.

              He graduated from high school in Stepanakert. From 1972 to 1974 he served in the Soviet army. In 1982, he graduated with honors from the Electrical Engineering Department of the Yerevan Polytechnic Institute.
              He began his career in 1971 at the Stepanakert Electrotechnical Plant. He was a fitter, then - a mechanical engineer.
              Since 1980, he held various posts in the Komsomol and party bodies of Nagorno-Karabakh.
              In 1989 and 1990 he was elected a deputy of the Supreme Council of Armenia, a member of the Presidium of the Supreme Council of Armenia. In 1991, he was elected to the NKR Supreme Council of the first convocation.
              He was a member of the "Krunk" committee, after the dissolution of which he founded and headed the "Miatsum" organization. He was one of the first to take responsibility for the formation of the security and defense system of Nagorno-Karabakh.
              In August 1992, when the Azerbaijani army captured half of the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, R. Kocharyan accepted the post of chairman of the State Defense Committee of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic and the Prime Minister of NKR.
              http://www.ladno.ru/person/kocharyan/bio/

              I ask you to pay attention. To the highlighted, being a citizen of Azerbaijan, I managed to become a deputy of Armenia, laughing nonsense. winked and then subsequently by the president laughing
              1. Apollo
                Apollo 17 May 2013 09: 50 New
                0
                extension
                Robert Kocharian "ended up" in the Prosecutor General of Russia

                In the production of the General Prosecutor's Office of the Russian Federation there was a case in which the name of the second President of Armenia Robert Kocharian appears. According to A1Plus, this is stated in a letter received from the Administration of the President of Russia, signed by the official of the reception T. Ovchinnikova.

                This happened after the public relations officer of the Russian organization "Public Council for Combating Corruption" sent a letter to V. Putin, informing that they had at their disposal documents from Armenia, which presented facts about the participation of the second president of Armenia, Robert Kocharian in big business. Moreover, we are talking about the period when he was still in the office of president, and not after the end of his term.

                Documents were sent to Putin, so that having become acquainted with them, the President of the Russian Federation gave an assessment of how, hiding behind his name and expecting his good relations, Kocharian robbed his own people, took billions out of a small country.

                It should be reminded that the "Public Council for Combating Corruption" cooperates with the "Anti-Crime" Anti-Corruption Center, created on the initiative of the Chairman of the Motherland and Honor Party Garnik Margaryan. Let us also remind that Mr. Margaryan informed his Russian colleagues which companies "got" to the Kocharyan family both in Armenia and in Russia, according to Kocharian, "through Putin's goodness."
                http://www.1in.am/rus/armenia_apolitics_29934.html

                pay attention to the source, it is Armenian
                1. Apollo
                  Apollo 17 May 2013 09: 53 New
                  +1
                  Sargsyan (Sargsyan) Serge Azatovich: biography


                  Born 30 June 1954 years in the city of Stepanakertwhere he graduated from high school. In 1971, he entered Yerevan State University. In 1972-1974 served in the armed forces of the USSR. In 1979, he graduated from YSU Faculty of Philology.
                  He began his career in 1975 as a turner at the Yerevan Electrotechnical Plant, where he worked until 1979.
                  In 1979-1988 He was the head of the department, the second secretary, the first secretary of the Stepanakert city committee of the Komsomol, the head of the propaganda and agitation department of the Stepanakert city committee of the Communist Party, the instructor of the department of party organizations of the NKAR regional committee, and the assistant to the first secretary of the NKAR regional committee Heinrich Poghosyan.
                  In 1989-1993 led the Committee of the NKR Self-Defense Forces.
                  In 1993-1995 was Minister of Defense of the Republic of Armenia.
                  In 1995-1996 - Head of the Department of State Security of the Republic of Armenia, then - Minister of National Security of the Republic of Armenia.
                  In 1996-1999 - Minister of Internal Affairs and National Security of the Republic of Armenia.
                  In 1999 - Minister of National Security of the Republic of Armenia.
                  In 1999-2000 - Head of the Office of the President of the Republic of Armenia.
                  In 1999-2007 - Secretary of the National Security Council under the President of the Republic of Armenia.
                  In 2000-2007 - Minister of Defense of the Republic of Armenia.
                  April 4 2007 of the year was appointed Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia.
                  On June 7 on June 2007, he was re-appointed Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia, heading the Government of the Republic of Armenia formed after the elections to the National Assembly of the Republic of Armenia.
                  19 February 2008 - won the presidential election by a majority vote.
                  http://www.ladno.ru/person/sarkisyan/bio/
                  again, pay attention to where he was born and lived and the citizen of which republic he was.

                  I won’t be surprised that someday the case of Serge Sargsyan will be in the Prosecutor General’s Office of the Russian Federation, following the case of Robert Kocharyan. They are a tandem. laughing
                  1. kNow
                    kNow 17 May 2013 10: 39 New
                    +3
                    they are specially directed there to destroy them from the inside, which they safely do wink
        2. xetai9977
          xetai9977 17 May 2013 08: 27 New
          +2
          You have just confirmed my words. We are opposed by Armenia. The President of Armenia was born in Karabakh, so according to the passport he is a citizen of Armenia
      2. Rumi007
        Rumi007 17 May 2013 10: 42 New
        +3
        The most interesting thing is that conscripts from Gyumri, Yerevan, Syunik and other cities and towns of Armenia serve in the so-called Artsakh defense army.At least, the corpses of the killed Armenians are sent not to the villages of Karabakh, but to the cities of Armenia.
    2. Yarbay
      Yarbay 17 May 2013 09: 54 New
      -4
      Quote: Milafon
      Too simple "negotiated war" scenario for this region

      Normal scenario, quite possible !!
      But I am for the complete liberation of the occupied territories!
      and Serzhik Sarkisovich to the Hague Tribunal!
      1. Ezhaak
        Ezhaak 17 May 2013 11: 05 New
        0
        Good day Alibek. Good day to all.
        I won’t start to argue, just remember the past. My child, playing in the team of reserve masters (BZBK remember?) Often went to games in Stenaparket. So they children called Stepanakert. laughing
        1. xetai9977
          xetai9977 17 May 2013 11: 17 New
          +1
          It became Stepanakert in Soviet times. Historically, it was the residence of the Karabakh khans and was called Khankendi. (Khan's village). Now the historical name has been returned, and with the help of God we will issue a de facto.
          1. Ezhaak
            Ezhaak 17 May 2013 11: 28 New
            +1
            So I talk about Soviet times.
            Quote: xetai9977
            with the help of God, we will make de facto.

            Hope for God, but don’t be fooled. (Russian proverb)
            1. xetai9977
              xetai9977 17 May 2013 12: 21 New
              0
              Naturally, we do so, dear Eugene.
          2. Yeraz
            Yeraz 17 May 2013 11: 31 New
            +1
            Quote: xetai9977
            It became Stepanakert in Soviet times. Historically, it was the residence of the Karabakh khans and was called Khankendi. (Khan's village). Now the historical name has been returned, and with the help of God we will issue a de facto.

            Note STEPAnakert))))) Directly the original Armenian name))))
            1. Ezhaak
              Ezhaak 17 May 2013 11: 39 New
              0
              Quote: Yeraz
              Note STEPAnakert)))))

              So here is Stepan Shaumyan and the perpetuation of his memory involved.
              1. Yeraz
                Yeraz 17 May 2013 11: 59 New
                +1
                Quote: Hedgehog
                Quote: Yeraz
                Note STEPAnakert)))))

                So here is Stepan Shaumyan and the perpetuation of his memory involved.

                So am I about when the city was founded, and when Styopa lived)))
                1. Ezhaak
                  Ezhaak 17 May 2013 12: 08 New
                  -1
                  Renaming took place throughout the Union, not only in Azerbaijan. Fashion was like that.
        2. Yarbay
          Yarbay 17 May 2013 11: 44 New
          0
          Quote: Hedgehog
          Good day Alibek. Good day to all.

          hello dear!
          the main thing now is and Stepanakert is unfairly called!
          Apparently, all the same, Stepan Shaumyan was not shot by the British, but died quietly in the mid-70s in India!
          Last year, the remains of 26 Baku commissars re-buried!
          It turned out not 26, but 23 coffins! There were no coffins of Shaumyan and the Amiryan brothers!

          Y. Makhmudov noted that during research conducted by the Institute of History, a telegram was found in the archive of Turkmenistan: “This telegram concerns the issue of the execution of Stepan Shaumyan. 26 commissars were executed on September 20, 1918. The telegram also indicated that within 10 days after this date, Stepan Shaumyan and Anastas Mikoyan were given dry rations in Krasnovodsk. How, then, could Shaumyan be spread? He sent a message to Lenin through Mikoyan. The telegram also indicated that in the early days he was paid 1 ruble 50 kopecks per day, after the 2nd day they began to pay 2 rubles, and later on - 17 rubles. ” 
          The scientist said that the Institute of History discovered 4-5 similar telegrams regarding Shaumyan: “These telegrams also show that Shaumyan was not shot and, moreover, was one of the main persons of the Dashnaktsutyun party” 


          http://deyerler.org/ru/42426-rsrryirr-ryorsrsr-rr-rsr-srssssrrsr.html

          http://anspress.com/index.php?a=2&lng=ru&nid=24997


          http://vesti.az/news/113793/%D0%AD%D0%BB%D1%8C%D0%B4%D0%B0%D1%80_%D0%98%D1%81%D0





          %BC%D0%B0%D0%B8%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%B2:_%D0%92_%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%81%D1%82%D1%80%D





          0%B5%D0%BB%D0%B5_%D0%A1%D1%82%D0%B5%D0%BF%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B0_%D0%A8%D0%B0%D1%83%D





          0%BC%D1%8F%D0%BD%D0%B0_%D0%B2_%D0%BF%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BA%D0%B0%D1%85_%D0%90%D0%B3%





          D0%B4%D0%B6%D0%B0%D0%BA%D1%83%D0%BC%D0%B0_%D0%BF%D1%80%D0%B8%D0%B7%D0%BD%D0%B0%D





          0%BB%D1%81%D1%8F_%D0%B5%D0%B3%D0%BE_%D1%83%D0%B1%D0%B8%D0%B9%D1%86%D0%B0________





          _______
          1. Ezhaak
            Ezhaak 17 May 2013 12: 02 New
            0
            Quote: Yarbay
            Apparently, all the same, Stepan Shaumyan was not shot by the British

            Yes, I heard a similar version. But even in my youth in Baku during the construction of a new memorial there was a lot of talk about the absence of Shaumyan’s body in the general burial.
            1. Yarbay
              Yarbay 17 May 2013 12: 05 New
              +1
              Quote: Hedgehog
              Yes, I heard a similar version. But even in my youth in Baku during the construction of a new memorial there was a lot of talk about the absence of Shaumyan’s body in the general burial.

              If this is so, then I do not understand how Stalin did not get it and what is the point here ???
              That is, causes, effects and consequences!
              1. Ezhaak
                Ezhaak 17 May 2013 12: 24 New
                0
                Quote: Yarbay
                what’s the salt here ??

                Alas, much of the story will remain dark for a long time and I doubt that it will become known to us.
                By the way, Alibek, the last link as it is presented, but I found a way out and read the article. And in my years they talked about 23 bodies. However, cutting a head with a dagger is cool. I do not believe in it!
                1. Yarbay
                  Yarbay 17 May 2013 12: 38 New
                  +1
                  Quote: Hedgehog
                  Alas, much of the story will remain dark for a long time and I doubt that it will become known to us.

                  I understand that too, but very interesting!
                  As for the fact that Shaumyan was one of the leaders of Dashnaktsutyun, it does not surprise me, if only because at one time Mir Jafar Bagirov and Lavrenty Beria were among the leaders of counterintelligence in ADR !!
  3. taseka
    taseka 17 May 2013 06: 31 New
    +3
    "God grant that the" treaty war "does not go beyond" rumors "and conspiracy fantasies." - sorry for the children!
  4. luka095
    luka095 17 May 2013 09: 24 New
    0
    Any rumors someone starts. If they are, it means that someone needs them. The rumor of war, and even in this region, is preparation for war. Prepare, then, all for the events. And it seems to be harmless - how come, after all, negotiable ...
    And people die in wars regardless of whether they are contractual or not. And it’s not those who plan such wars who die, but innocent people.
  5. Apollo
    Apollo 17 May 2013 09: 26 New
    +3
    quote-The process of independence by the people of Nagorno-Karabakh, for various reasons, was led into a deep impasse.

    well, the author Denis Dvornikov was clearly brought to either side by a rich imagination. Well, again I’m a regnum, clearly from the very beginning by whose order these articles are written. they will announce self-determination, javakhetia (Georgia), the state of California (USA), and then they will claim rights to the Stavropol and Krasnodar Territories of the Russian Federation where they live compactly and in large numbers.
    In international law, there are two concepts, such as the right of nations to self-determination and state sovereignty.
    If we proceed from the right of nations to self-determination, the world will turn into a madhouse, which, by the way, is happening before our eyes.
    I would like to remind a citizen of Russia, Denis Dvornikov, that Russia recognizes de facto and de jure, the sovereignty of Azerbaijan and does not recognize the so-called "NKR".

    As for the resumption of hostilities, no one can predict their outcome, perhaps the result will be a complete destruction of the infrastructure of both Azerbaijan and Armenia.

  6. Semurg
    Semurg 17 May 2013 09: 58 New
    0
    During the war, several regions of Azerbaijan were occupied, in addition to the NKR itself, so I have a question, do these regions remain occupied by Armenians? and how long are the Armenians going to keep them ea by themselves and what arguments do they bring to keep these territories? What requirements do the Armenians put forward in exchange for these territories or they no longer separate them and the NKR itself?
    1. MilaPhone
      MilaPhone 17 May 2013 10: 20 New
      0
      Armenians call them "security belt" and are ready to return them in exchange for status (recognition of independence).
      1. Yeraz
        Yeraz 17 May 2013 11: 18 New
        0
        Quote: Milafon
        Armenians call them "security belt" and are ready to return them in exchange for status (recognition of independence).

        They are ready to return only 5 occupied regions around Karabakh, and leave 2 because then Nagorno-Karabakh will not be connected with Armenia.
        But neither these regions, nor Nagorno-Karabakh itself can be a topic of discussion.
        1. xetai9977
          xetai9977 17 May 2013 11: 23 New
          +2
          Which state agrees to discuss the ownership of its territory?
    2. Ezhaak
      Ezhaak 17 May 2013 10: 59 New
      0
      Quote: Semurg
      how long are the Armenians going to keep them ea and what arguments do they bring to keep these territories?

      Now ask the same question by changing only the invader country to Israel and the occupied territories to the Golan Heights. I hope you will immediately see the answer.
      1. Semurg
        Semurg 17 May 2013 11: 10 New
        0
        Quote: Hedgehog
        Quote: Semurg
        how long are the Armenians going to keep them ea and what arguments do they bring to keep these territories?

        Now ask the same question by changing only the invader country to Israel and the occupied territories to the Golan Heights. I hope you will immediately see the answer.

        It turns out that there is more than one war ahead? Israel fought three or four times apart from raids in Lebanon.
        1. Ezhaak
          Ezhaak 17 May 2013 11: 20 New
          +1
          I don’t know how much and what will happen, but once, long before the occupation of the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, back in 1988, I explained to my Azerbaijani interlocutors on my fingers why they would lose Karabakh. There were grievances, but then they could not argue anything concrete. In order to speak confidently, one must have facts, and I have long been living in Russia. Far from what is happening.
          1. Yarbay
            Yarbay 17 May 2013 11: 33 New
            +1
            Quote: Hedgehog
            I don’t know how much and what will happen, but once, long before the occupation of the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, back in 1988, I explained to my Azerbaijani interlocutors on my fingers why they would lose Karabakh.

            I could not say in 88 ohms, but in 92 ohms I was almost sure!
            1. Ezhaak
              Ezhaak 17 May 2013 12: 03 New
              +1
              Quote: Yarbay
              at 88 ohm could not say

              It was then that there was that conversation. Shortly before Sumgait. At that time he worked in Akademgorodok. On the Ave. Builders.
              1. Yarbay
                Yarbay 17 May 2013 12: 18 New
                0
                Quote: Hedgehog
                It was then that there was that conversation. Shortly before Sumgait. At that time he worked in Akademgorodok. On the Ave. Builders.

                I understand this and appreciate your foresight!
                I’m talking about myself, then I was in 10th grade and would not believe that this is possible!
              2. xetai9977
                xetai9977 17 May 2013 12: 41 New
                +3
                the hedgehog
                An hour ago, I returned from Akademgorodok, in front of a beautiful park with fountains. I remember 1988. The events were just beginning. I was in the 5th year of the medical institute and there was an Armenian teacher in chemical protection at our military department. As I remember now, he said at the end of the lecture: “I finished my mission (and said), with great regret I leave Baku and go to live in Russia. I have nothing to do in Armenia. I don't want to have anything to do with the screamers. "
                1. Ezhaak
                  Ezhaak 17 May 2013 12: 53 New
                  0
                  Quote: xetai9977
                  Opposite a beautiful park with fountains.

                  Thanks, Rauf. And the fountain is very interesting there now. I worked in that area since 74, lived in the "Black City" (Khatai district?) And in the 4th microdistrict. There are even more changes in the Black City now. There are practically no factories left. The city is growing and blooming.
                  1. Yarbay
                    Yarbay 17 May 2013 13: 11 New
                    0
                    Quote: Hedgehog
                    Now in the Black City there are even more changes. There are practically no plants left. The city is growing and blooming.

                    here is the black city development project!
                    It will be called the White City!
                    already last year began construction!

                    1. Ezhaak
                      Ezhaak 17 May 2013 13: 19 New
                      +2
                      Quote: Yarbay
                      It will be called the White City!

                      Actually, in our time, the "White City" was also. It began behind the Nizami park and stretched towards the Krasnaya Zvezda thermal power station. And that there will be huge restructuring, I know not by hearsay. On the site of my house there is a 16-storey building behind the recreation center, my school, built by Nobel, was demolished. Whatever is done, everything is for the best! Thank you for the video. smile
                  2. xetai9977
                    xetai9977 17 May 2013 13: 33 New
                    +3
                    Thank you for your kind words, Eugene! Even the term "Black City" has been forgotten. Everything is demolished there. The project is called "White City". Alibek has just laid out the slides. What good music !!!
                    1. Ezhaak
                      Ezhaak 17 May 2013 21: 07 New
                      +2
                      Quote: xetai9977
                      Thanks for the kind words,

                      I can’t answer in PM, for some reason the server answers me ANTISPAM: User ID not valid. even after reboot.
                      No, I have not been to Baku for a long time. But I have many good comrades living there. We often communicate. smile
    3. xetai9977
      xetai9977 17 May 2013 11: 11 New
      +3
      I answer the salmon. In addition to Karabakh itself, 7 districts were occupied, where not one Armenian had ever lived. That is, in fact, banal aggression is the expansion of its territory at the expense of a neighbor. And how long they can hold, the future will tell. We hope not for long, at least we do everything for this.
  7. Semurg
    Semurg 17 May 2013 10: 36 New
    0
    The recognition of independence, full or partial, as part of Azerbaijan is supposedly broad autonomy. And if they recognize full independence, NKR will become part of Armenia or there will be a separate state and how to do it if there is no direct border with Armenia. According to the map, the NKR is, as it were, inside Azerbaijan and has no common borders with anyone; it turns out that without the occupation of part of Azerbaijan it is not possible to build either a separate state or enter Armenia - is it like West Berlin? All transit by air is expensive and Azerbaijan will impede land transit.
    1. Yeraz
      Yeraz 17 May 2013 11: 29 New
      +2
      Quote: Semurg
      The recognition of independence, full or partial, as part of Azerbaijan is supposedly broad autonomy. And if they recognize full independence, NKR will become part of Armenia or there will be a separate state and how to do it if there is no direct border with Armenia. According to the map, the NKR is, as it were, inside Azerbaijan and has no common borders with anyone; it turns out that without the occupation of part of Azerbaijan it is not possible to build either a separate state or enter Armenia - is it like West Berlin? All transit by air is expensive and Azerbaijan will impede land transit.

      Yes, and it turns out. Only the air corridor also will not work. Air defense systems cover the territory of Karabakh, otherwise the airport in Khojaly that has been built for a long time, but does not start up because Azerbaijan can easily bring down planes flying there.