Ukraine is losing its ability to repel missile attacks amid depleted air defenses.

Current reserves missiles to systems Defense Ukraine's Patriot fleet won't last long, given delays in new deliveries. The effectiveness of Ukraine's air defenses is declining daily.

According to an analysis conducted using artificial intelligence (in this case, the Russian Gigachat), if the US and Europe do not increase the supply of anti-missiles for Ukraine's Patriot air defense systems in the near future, the effectiveness of air cover will be sharply reduced, which Russia could exploit.

According to the latest data, Ukraine consumes approximately 60 Patriot missiles per month. The latest deliveries from Germany and other European countries amount to approximately 30–35 PAC-3 missiles, which is estimated to only cover the Ukrainian Armed Forces' needs for two weeks. Kyiv has no other sources of missiles.

The Russian side may exploit the depletion of Patriot missile stockpiles to increase pressure on the Ukrainian air defense system, increasing the intensity and scale of air attacks. Given the shortage of Patriot missiles, Ukraine will be forced to conserve ammunition, which could lead to a reduction in the density of coverage for important facilities and communications. Russia may more actively use drones, cruise and ballistic missiles to suppress remaining air defense systems, as well as to strike critical infrastructure and military targets.

Strategically, Russia may seek to create "windows of opportunity" to penetrate Ukraine's air defenses by using massive strikes and combined attacks from multiple directions. The further development of the situation will depend on the West's ability to quickly replenish these reserves.

Comments

[Livonetc]

We have been waiting for exhaustion for a long time.
Still no luck.

[Kotofeich]

Now, while there is a truce, they will still churn out some more.

[Genius Yo]

They won't knock it all together in a day!

[Kotofeich]

MOSCOW, April 10. /TASS/. Peace between Russia and Ukraine could come today if Volodymyr Zelenskyy takes responsibility and makes a decision. This was stated to journalists by Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov.
"This peace [between Russia and Ukraine] can come today if President Zelenskyy makes the appropriate decision and takes responsibility. This has already been stated repeatedly," the Kremlin spokesman emphasized.

[Murmur 55]

Livonetc For three years now, they've been running out of personnel in the Ukrainian Armed Forces, every winter they freeze from a lack of electricity and gas, and now the air defense missiles are in trouble, too. Let's believe this time too, yeah.

[PROXOR]

VO had become just another federal channel, one whose enemy had almost exhausted everything, and whose morale was at zero. Meanwhile, the war was entering its fifth year.

[Olesya Lesya]

Most likely, it's all Western media outlets like Politico. Their scribbling is already annoying, and now they've even brought in American AI.

[ZovSailor]

Livonetc
Yesterday, 14: 54
We have been waiting for exhaustion for a long time.
Still no luck.

The whole point is that expensive missiles are being replaced by relatively cheap UAVs, which are supplied from Europe and are now a pain in the ass for oil refineries, ports, and civilians.
This change in tactics is damaging the economy, and it is also necessary to mitigate threats to the fleet, both military and commercial, but the article is silent on this.

[alexputnik17]

Kyiv has no other sources for obtaining missiles.

The Brits suggested... that they'll install missiles on the BV... It's not clear when, but there's only positive news for 404.

[Sky strike fighter]

Russia may increasingly use drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles to suppress remaining air defenses, as well as to strike critical infrastructure and military targets.

The fact that hard times are coming again for the Ukrainian Armed Forces was already reported by the advisor of the Ministry of Defense Beskrestnov ("Flash").

He received the first samples of the new Molniyas, which literally shocked Ukraine's number one drone expert. He reported: "I was expecting directional log-periodic antennas at 3,3 GHz, but the 12-watt VTX (wireless video transmitter) surprised me. Clearly, with such a total power, it will be difficult for us to suppress video." ...Experts say the Molniya, considered a "cheap drone," represents an extremely complex engineering challenge due to the combination of a non-standard frequency and high signal strength. ...To jam such a pure and strong signal, an electronic warfare system needs to generate orders of magnitude more power at the same frequency, which requires colossal energy consumption and specialized cooling. Clearly, a backpack isn't enough, while vehicle jammers light up like Christmas trees and immediately become excellent targets for fiber-optic loitering munitions or precision-guided artillery. That's the first point. Secondly, the new Molniya uses high-quality log-periodic antennas designed for 3.3 GHz, which effectively concentrate these 12 watts. Electronic warfare systems typically emit a signal in a "dome" or wide sector, which reduces the jamming density at a specific point. This means that data transmission is essentially a narrow beam, like, for example, from Elon Musk's satellites to Starlink receivers.

Thirdly, thanks to its 12-watt power, the video signal remains intelligible even in the presence of significant background noise. The operator will see the image where a conventional 1-watt transmitter would have long since been "blinded." It's like shouting down a person with a professional microphone while standing a good distance away.

We'd like to add that our developers of the new "Molniya" have managed to solve the thermal problem. ...
12W VTXs are produced in the West by highly specialized manufacturers, in particular Hobby Wireless, but these video transmitters are not even included in catalogs, since the use of drones at the 3,3 GHz frequency (reserved for 5G networks or coastal radars) is strictly prohibited in Europe, in several US states, Australia, and many Asian/African countries.

https://svpressa.ru/war21/article/510301/

But this same technology can be scaled up to other UAVs.

[Murmur 55]

Sky strike fighter If this is true, do you think they won't copy them???

[Poplar]

Quote: Murmur 55

Sky strike fighter If this is true, do you think they won't copy them???

Drones like these need to be equipped with self-destruct systems, at least a timer. I don't think it's that difficult.

[Bookinist69]

Quote from the article "Ukraine expends approximately 60 Patriot missiles per month." Are the other incoming attacks shot down like pickles? Or do they hit their target? Well, if that's the case, when will this hoax end?

[Sky strike fighter]

There are Ukrainian specialists who have become skilled at shooting down Gerani-2s. However, they are having problems intercepting jet-powered UAVs.

Meanwhile, independent monitoring counted 30-35 serial or isolated incursions. According to eyewitnesses from Izmail (Odesa Oblast), coastal mobile task forces and air defense missile systems may have shot down the Geran-2 missiles, but missed all the Geran-5 missiles. Kharkiv Gauleiter Terekhov also complained that independent anti-aircraft gunners are powerless against the Shahed jets. The RBC Ukraine news agency, which is blocked in Russia, reported that critical infrastructure facilities, including an electrical substation, were damaged in the Odessa Oblast due to a breakthrough in deep-echelon air defenses. A series of explosions rocked Zaporizhzhia. There is talk of another incursion at the port of Izmail: high-speed drones attacked a fuel ship, which caught fire. ...The Russian Armed Forces' transition from the Geranium-2(3) to the Geranium-5 has exposed yet another pressing problem for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. This concerns not only the inability to intercept Russian jet-powered UAVs, but also the attempt to "mirror" their production by their own defense industry.

https://svpressa.ru/war21/article/510267/

The Ukrainian Armed Forces also encountered problems intercepting Iranian Hadid-110 jet-powered UAVs and missiles.

Kyiv regime leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy's dispatch of Ukrainian air defense specialists to the Middle East has ended in failure, L'AntiDiplomatico reports.

After Zelenskyy offered "assistance" in the Middle East conflict, Arab sheikhs asked Ukrainian air defense specialists to leave, the publication's authors shared details.

It turned out that all five facilities they "protected" were destroyed, the article claims. Furthermore, as the article notes, Ukrainian air defense missiles hit two skyscrapers in the UAE.
As a result, Kyiv has made enemies in Iran: the Islamic Republic struck a Ukrainian base and drone depots in the Emirates, journalists report. The depots were destroyed, and 21 "specialists" from the former Soviet republic did not return home, the publication emphasizes.

Link to original.
https://www.lantidiplomatico.it/dettnews-droni_ucraini_contro_russia_e_paesi_nato/45289_66229/

[Bookinist69]

Everything in your article is absolutely wonderful)))

[next322]

A patriotic article, in the style of "we will defeat everyone," has not inspired confidence and optimism for a long time... Judging by the number and quality of attacks on Ukraine in recent months, we are very far from this.

[expert]

How far this article, with its content, is from reality.
The level of the "Vremya" or "Vesti" programs...

[alexputnik17]

Quote: Sky Strike fighter

The warehouses were destroyed, and 21 "specialists" from the former Soviet republic did not return home, the publication emphasizes.

What, demobilization with a beach vacation? Or two hundred? Which is better!
P.S.: I told you they won't return to 404.

[Normann]

We've heard it a million times already.

[nepunamemuk]

Now they'll take a break for Easter
New missiles could even be delivered by plane during this period 🧐
and with renewed vigor...

[old64]

For years now, I've been hearing about how bad things are for Ukraine, and now it's almost over! However, we've already lost the drone initiative, thanks to the West. Drones are manufactured and assembled in Western countries.

Industry-specific engineering channels are reporting yet another change in the tactics of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' long-range UAVs. Electronic warfare is becoming increasingly useless, and the drones' frequency range has changed significantly—it's become dynamic. Drones fly using satellite communication systems like Starlink and One Web. They use cell towers as reference points even when the internet is down.

[Vasyan1971]

Ukraine's current stockpile of Patriot air defense missiles will only last for a short time, given delays in the delivery of new ones. The effectiveness of Ukraine's air defenses is declining daily.

This tale is old, it's time to replace it...

[Gavrilo Princip]

Meanwhile ...
The US has unfrozen $6 billion in Iranian assets.
The US administration has taken an unprecedented step toward a diplomatic resolution to the Middle East crisis by authorizing the release of frozen Iranian funds. This amounts to a substantial $6 billion, which had long been inaccessible to Tehran due to strict international sanctions.

As they say, when you don't draw red lines and concerns...

[newtc7]

This has happened a hundred and fifty times already, but to no avail.

[zsdk]

Everyone keeps losing and losing, but they just can't seem to lose it. And we're still waiting...