War Metal: How Tungsten Dependence Makes Armies Vulnerable
There are substances the general public doesn't think about until the cannonade starts. Tungsten is one of them. Its name translates from German as "wolf's foam": medieval miners observed that when smelting tin, this heavy powder "devoured" the metal like a wolf devours a lamb. Five centuries have passed since then, but tungsten's connection to destruction has not only remained strong, but has strengthened to the point where the element has become a critical resource in the modern military-industrial complex. Number 74 on the periodic table has become a geopolitical axis around which issues of national security, economic stability, and strategic superiority revolve.
What makes tungsten indispensable?
Density. Hardness. Melting point. Three parameters, three fundamental properties, that determine the fate of a metal.
Tungsten's density is 19,25 g/cm³—it's heavier than almost all metals except osmium and iridium, which are rarely used industrially. For comparison, steel has a density of about 7,8 g/cm³, and lead has a density of 11,3 g/cm³. Tungsten is almost 1,7 times heavier than lead and 2,5 times heavier than steel. This means that for the same volume, it carries significantly more kinetic energy—and therefore has greater penetration power.
Its hardness on the Mohs scale ranges from 7,5 to 8, comparable to topaz and almost reaching corundum. No other malleable metal combines such hardness with such density.
Its melting point is 3422°C, higher than that of any other metal. This makes tungsten indispensable in applications where extreme thermal stress must be withstood, such as in nozzles. missile engines, in the tips of artillery shells that penetrate armor, in elements aviation turbines. When a projectile hits a steel plate at a speed of one and a half kilometers per second, the temperature at the point of contact instantly rises to thousands of degrees. The lead will melt. The steel will deform. The tungsten will continue to penetrate.
Where is tungsten born?
China: the undisputed hegemon
China controls the world's tungsten just as Saudi Arabia controls oil. According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), global tungsten reserves are approximately 4,6 million tons. Of these, China accounts for approximately 2,4 million tons—more than 52 percent of global reserves. But when it comes to production, the picture is even clearer: China accounts for 75 to 82 percent of global tungsten concentrate production annually.
This concentration is not an accident, but a result of geology, stories and deliberate government policy. Chinese deposits in the provinces of Jiangxi, Hunan, and Guangdong contain some of the largest and most developed tungsten ore deposits in the world. At the same time, Beijing has pursued a policy of export control for decades, introducing quotas, export duties, and licensing. Tungsten has essentially become an instrument of strategic pressure—no less effective than control over rare earth elements.
Second and third
Outside of China, the situation is as follows. Vietnam holds reserves of approximately 100 tons, making it the second-largest producer. Russia is third: the Russian Federation's balance reserves of tungsten oxide amount to approximately 1,3 million tons, but current production is small compared to potential. According to TASS, all planned tungsten mining capacity in Russia could be operational by 2030, by which time annual tungsten oxide production should increase by 18 tons due to the development of new deposits.
Bolivia, Austria, Portugal, Spain, South Korea, and the United Kingdom all have their own deposits, but their share of global production is modest. For NATO countries and their allies, the situation is alarming: their own raw material base does not cover their needs, and dependence on Chinese supplies remains a structural vulnerability.
USA: Dependency without production
The United States has not commercially mined tungsten for over a decade. The last significant American mines closed in the early 2010s amid competition from cheap Chinese imports. Today, the country, which boasts the world's most powerful military-industrial complex, is forced to rely on imports and recycling of secondary raw materials—about 30 percent of US tungsten consumption comes from recycling.
For a military power that uses tungsten in armor-piercing shells, rocket nozzles, and aircraft turbine components, this is a structural vulnerability that becomes more acute with each conflict.
Metal at War
Armor-piercing projectiles: penetration core
Tungsten's primary military application is armor-piercing fin-stabilized discarding sabot (APFSDS) projectiles, or APFSDS. These form the core of the modern arsenal. tank guns of 120 and 125 mm caliber.
The operating principle of the APFSDS round is simple and brutal: a long, thin core made of a heavy alloy—tungsten or uranium—is accelerated to a velocity of approximately 1500–1750 m/s and strikes armor with a minimal cross-sectional area. The higher the core's density, the greater its kinetic energy per unit area, and the deeper it penetrates. Tungsten is ideal for this task.
Western armies use both tungsten and depleted uranium. British L27-series rounds and some American ammunition contain depleted uranium, which has an additional "pyrophoric" effect: upon penetration of armor, it spontaneously ignites, creating a cloud of radioactive dust inside the vehicle. However, uranium rounds are controversial politically and environmentally. Tungsten cores avoid this drawback, making them a preferred option for export shipments and for countries unwilling to bear the reputational costs of depleted uranium.
The German DM63, the American M829A3/A4, and the Israeli M322—all of these shells, in their tungsten versions, use tungsten carbide or tungsten-based alloys. Each shot discharges between 3 and 5 kilograms of pure tungsten into the barrel.
High-explosive fragmentation and anti-ship systems
Armor-piercing shells are only part of the picture. Tungsten alloys are used in fragmentation warheads of guided missiles, in anti-ship systems, and in cluster munitions. A tungsten alloy fragment retains its kinetic energy during an explosion over significantly greater distances than steel or lead fragments. This is critical for defeating personnel, lightly armored vehicles, and parked aircraft.
Rocketry and aviation
Tungsten's high-temperature properties make it indispensable in jet engine nozzles, aircraft gas turbine components, and the skins of hypersonic vehicles, where air friction heats the surface to temperatures inaccessible to any other structural material. Tungsten-based alloys with rhenium and molybdenum are used in turbine blades operating at temperatures above 1500°C.
Missile Defense
This aspect is less obvious, but no less important. Elements of missile defense systems, including kinetic energy interceptors, use tungsten components in their designs to ensure maximum penetration when colliding with an enemy warhead on a collision course, where the combined velocity can reach several kilometers per second.
Market: Soaring amid worries
The tungsten market is experiencing unprecedented growth. According to Fastmarkets, the price of ferrotungsten (75% W) in a Rotterdam warehouse reached $200–210 per kilogram in early 2026, up from $45–46 per kilogram just a few years earlier. This represents a four- to four-and-a-half-fold increase.
The situation is similar in the Chinese domestic market. Prices for tungsten carbide (powder, ≥99,7%) rose to 940 yuan per kilogram—an increase of 213 percent since the beginning of the year. Tungsten paratrioxide (APT) jumped to approximately 950 yuan per ton. Wolframite reached 642 yuan per ton. Tungsten powder exceeded 1500 yuan per kilogram.
According to Research Nester, the global tungsten market size exceeded $5,26 billion in 2025. By 2035, it is projected to reach $11,25 billion—more than doubling in a decade.
There are three main drivers behind this price rally.
At first, geopolitical tensions. Conflicts in the Middle East, continued hostilities in Eastern Europe, and increasing military budgets worldwide—all of this is creating demand for ammunition, and consequently, for the raw materials for its production. War has become the primary consumer of tungsten, overtaking industry and civilian engineering.
Secondly, restrictions from China. Beijing is consistently tightening export controls on strategic resources, including tungsten. Licensing, quotas, and export duties—tools familiar from rare earth elements—are also being applied to tungsten. Western countries are forced to seek alternative sources and develop recycling: in the US, recycling already accounts for approximately 30 percent of tungsten consumption.
Thirdly, technological growth. The transition to renewable energy, electric vehicles, and the semiconductor industry—all these industries use tungsten in various forms. Overall demand is growing, but supply is lagging.
One of the few restraining factors in the market is the development of recycling technologies. CERATIZIT, one of the world's largest manufacturers of carbide alloys, achieved a 91 percent tungsten recycling rate by 2024. This means that the vast majority of the valuable metal can be recovered from used tools and ammunition. However, recycling cannot fully offset the growing demand; it only slows the shortage.
Iran conflict 2025–2026: a stress test for stockpiles
The Iran-US conflict that erupted in February 2026 became the largest stress test for the tungsten supply chain since World War II. As Foreign Policy wrote, "every missile fired at Iran burns through US tungsten reserves."
Operation Epic Fury, launched by American forces against Iran, required a colossal expenditure of ammunition. Armor-piercing shells for tank guns, rocket nozzles for cruise missiles, and elements of missile defense systems—all of these systems use tungsten components. The longer the conflict continues, the deeper the supply chain shortages become.
Analysts and industry experts warn that American operations are rapidly depleting munitions that rely on materials like tungsten that "cannot be immediately replenished or easily replaced."
Price explosion: plus 500 percent
Since the conflict began, tungsten prices have soared by more than 500 percent. Expert Chris Berry of House Mountain Partners described the situation this way:
“We are getting a very clear picture: there is simply not enough tungsten in the supply chain, and no one really knows how this shortfall will be filled in the near term.”
Pini Althaus, managing partner of Cove Capital, an American mining investment firm, called the situation "desperate." His firm plans to build a tungsten mining and processing plant in Kazakhstan with US government support.
On the eve of the launch of operations against Iran, the Pentagon, according to Reuters, asked mining companies to help bolster domestic stockpiles of critical minerals, including tungsten. The exact contents of the Pentagon's strategic stockpile are classified, but the scale of the request indicates the severity of the problem.
Gracelin Baskaran, director of the Critical Mineral Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, emphasized:
"You certainly have a situation where the demand generated by a kinetic conflict leaves us in a very precarious position. The pressure on these materials is enormous, and China has cut us off from access."
The crisis was exacerbated by the fact that shortly before the Iranian conflict, in late 2025, Beijing imposed its own export controls on tungsten and other minerals in retaliation for the Trump administration's tariffs on Chinese products. This triggered a chain reaction in the market: prices soared even before the fighting began, and the Iranian conflict only added fuel to the fire.
Kyle Chan, an expert on Chinese industrial policy at the Brookings Institution, warned: "The continued US involvement in the Iran war only increases Beijing's leverage over Washington over rare earth elements. This makes the problem the US wanted to avoid almost even more serious—because now where will we get the yttrium, neodymium, or dysprosium needed for missile systems?"
American Response: Reserves, Kazakhstan, and Nevada
The Trump administration took unprecedented measures to strengthen mineral security. It declared a $12 billion strategic reserve of critical minerals, invested heavily in domestic mining projects, and took equity stakes in numerous private companies. Internationally, Washington sought mineral partnerships with dozens of countries and promoted the creation of a global trade bloc for critical minerals.
The Trump administration has made a concrete bet on tungsten. An agreement between Cove Capital and the Kazakh government was approved, with the American firm set to build a tungsten mining and processing plant in Central Asia. This is relatively unfamiliar territory for American business, but strategically important.
"Because we received US government support to help us secure the project, we have a sales commitment to the US and the US government," said Pini Althaus of Cove Capital.
The Pentagon awarded Golden Metal Resources $6,2 million to develop a tungsten project in Nevada. Golden Metal Resources is a subsidiary of Guardian Metal Resources, which listed on the New York Stock Exchange in late March 2026.
“This is an exciting milestone for Guardian Metal and our team as we begin trading on the NYSE American,” said Guardian Metal CEO Oliver Friesen. “We believe our Nevada projects are well positioned to contribute to domestic tungsten supplies amid growing scrutiny of the security of critical mineral supply chains.”
Restrictions from 2027
As of January 1, 2027, the US Department of Defense will impose restrictions on sourcing tungsten for defense supply chains—part of its efforts to reduce dependence on foreign competitors like China. This means that all arms manufacturers working with the Pentagon will be required to prove the origin of their tungsten—and that this origin must not be linked to China.
All of these measures share a common constraint: time. Chris Berry of House Mountain Partners acknowledged that it will be years before the United States sees "a tungsten supply chain or a critical mass of tungsten material that doesn't involve China in some way."
Pini Altaus added:
"It's extremely difficult to replenish reserves because there simply aren't enough mines in operation that the US has access to. There are more projects coming to market, but we're talking about a three- to ten-year period."
This means that once existing US tungsten stockpiles are depleted, they could remain so for a long time. Every missile fired during Operation Epic Fury is more than just a spent munition. It's a step toward strategic vulnerability that cannot be replenished this year or next.
The Geopolitics of Heavy Metal
Tungsten is more than just a raw material. It's a tool of power. A country that controls tungsten supplies controls the ability of other countries to produce modern weapons. A country with its own reserves and processing technologies enjoys strategic autonomy.
The situation with tungsten largely mirrors the logic of the 20th-century oil market, but with one important difference: alternatives to oil—electric vehicles, solar energy, hydrogen—are slowly emerging. There are virtually no alternatives to tungsten in military applications. Depleted uranium is an option, but it is politically toxic. Lead is too soft. Osmium and iridium are too rare and expensive. Tungsten remains the only material that combines extreme density, hardness, temperature resistance, and an affordable price.
Tungsten is a metal of war not because it's born to destroy. It's born to withstand extreme conditions—high temperatures, colossal loads, extreme speeds. But it's precisely these properties that make it indispensable in military affairs. And until humanity invents a way to wage war without armor-piercing shells, rocket engines, and kinetic interceptors, tungsten will remain the "wolf metal" that determines the balance of power.
Global reserves stand at 4,6 million tons. China controls more than half. Prices are at historic highs. Demand is growing. The Iranian conflict is clear evidence of how quickly reserves can run out.
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