Military Review

Ideological mutants and the Weimar scenario: experts on the prospects for Russia


So far, the ideological division of Russian society is very amorphous, but the fact that this division has happened is a fact. This is evidenced by the results of the study "Russian ideological timelessness in the mirror of social media", about which the head of this project, Doctor of Political Sciences, Professor of the Higher School of Economics University Emil Pain told "Ogonyok".

According to him, the total mobilization of society in a peaceful environment in Russia is excluded, there is less opportunity for manipulation of people. On the other hand, there is a dangerous tendency - the Russian Internet community is the most fragmented, its ideological "bushes" are weakly connected with each other, the ability to talk and negotiate has not appeared.

It is also alarming that in all ideological trends (liberal, leftist, nationalistic and pro-governmental), unique elite cells appear that can complicate political fragmentation. "The elite level of the left, for example, was divided into convinced xenophobes and advocates of various minority groups. However, with all the differences there are several signs common to all currents. First, negative consolidation prevails over positive: if we are friends, then only against someone Secondly, there is growing discontent. None of the ideological groups, including the pro-government, expresses satisfaction with the current state of affairs, and the current government asses, at best, as the lesser of evils. Third, in all groups the prevailing There is little skepticism about positive change. Few people believe that we can get better, and even more so that it will soon get better. This is the most important sign of timelessness - the present is ugly, and the future is unpromising, "says Pain.

According to him, the Internet today is a mirror of the whole society, reflecting its ideological priorities. And if the pro-government group now dominates in numbers, followed by the united leftists, and the Democrats-Liberals and nationalists close the list, then the leftists and nationalists are leading in their ability to organize and unite. From them noticeably behind the pro-government, and the least interest in self-organization among the liberals.

The authors of the study do not rule out that the leaders of the race will be completely new forces - ideological mutants, arising from a combination of xenophobic nationalism and left-wing social populism. "Their appearance is caused by a request from below. Our research showed that the only idea common to a mass audience of each of the four groups is xenophobia. Islamophobia, Caucasus phobia, migrant-phobia are common even among liberals, and in other trends they are even stronger. Ideas are also growing and ideas social justice. According to the latest polls, Russians are attaching greater importance to living conditions, comfort and security compared to the same increase in wages. And the government, of course, is much easier to add wages and pay deksirovat pensions, than to deal with utilities. Growing discontent. Adjusting to this real agenda, nationalists and leftists mutate. The most active cells on the left and right pick up each other's slogans, merging into a kind of national spill Russian socialism, "- Pain said.

He believes that the era of stagnation in Russia is leaving: “The foundation of timelessness was political stability, albeit stagnant. In such conditions, most ideological groups remained passive and could afford to think abstractly on the topic, but do we need a program of action. But it was a shaky structure , and it was worthwhile for one of its parts to show activity, as the balance was broken. After a series of rallies in December - May of last year, the authorities turned on. Vladislav Surkov called her “long-awaited toughness”, and the political opposition (of almost all its nuances) - repression. One way or another, a chain reaction arises - action gives rise to opposition, what Surkov called the “unequivocal victory” of the authorities can only be a natural delay in the response of the opposition forces to the actions of the authorities. of the last century, this answer stretched over 12 years (between 1905 and 1917 year), today the terms are able to shrink, and the options "return" - to be even more unpredictable. "

Summarizing, he added that история in situations like today's Russia, offered two options for rallying citizens on a common platform: "Either the Spanish scenario - the Moncloa Pact: when different groups united in opposition to the Franco regime and developed a" road map "of democratic transit; or the Weimar Republic evolution scenario - from authoritarianism to the dictatorship. In the second case, as we remember, the unification took place not due to the dialogue and taking into account the opinions of the opponents, but by eliminating and squeezing everyone who did not sign up for the general program. in Russia, the first scenario is impossible. However, the danger of the second is obvious: it is much simpler and, if nothing is done, it can be realized due to historical inertia. "
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  1. Bykov.
    Bykov. 16 May 2013 06: 44 New
    The Higher School of Economics, Jewish judges, regret it, damn it, that Russian society, which is not manipulated with the help of the new electronic media, is poorly managed, and they thought about themselves, they would come to the suckers, they would "stuff" them with beads, for Siberia, and here on you; fragmented, peculiar ...
    1. aksakal
      aksakal 16 May 2013 07: 37 New
      Be that as it may, if we remove the rejection of the HSE and discuss the SABJ itself, many points in the article are correct. Especially "a combination of xenophobic nationalism and left-wing social populism." I would like to note that I myself do not like his terms, I would leave "xenophobic nationalism", but "leftist social populism" I would call a request for a "modernized version of socialism." Okay, how did I print it? The fact is that this study, unfortunately, has the correct result. Even here post something on the topic "wow, give me freedom, I would have these (here the options are Caucasians, Tajiks, anyone else, just for some reason not Western ones, although Western ones are generally worse, because unlike Tajiks who dream (on the suspicion of xenophobes) of settling Russian lands without driving out the Russians, then Westerners would gladly wipe the local population off the face of the earth - read Brzezinski and Thatcher) would break it! " - the pluses will be right up to the roof. This is here, on the most balanced, in my IMHO, resource. What is happening on others - generally keep quiet.
      Well, it’s better not to minus, but to take on board and expand the pressing social problems so that "xenophobic nationalism" would disappear and the demand for socialism would be satisfied. If this is not done, then yes, yes, Russia has a danger of repeating the path of Germany in the 30s and 40s, no matter how you like it. Why step on someone else's rake if it is a very cruel rake? Their blow is very painful, the Germans still do not wake up.
      1. patline
        patline 16 May 2013 08: 58 New
        It's all lies. Disunity is imposed under the heading of expert opinion. How many different groups do not come up with, if only different.
        And we do not have xenophobia, different nations calmly coexist, and the fact that an influx of people from Asia cannot go unnoticed, but after all, this influx was provoked by someone in order to displease the locals and then talk about xenophobia.
        1. AKOL
          AKOL 16 May 2013 10: 01 New
          Quote: patline
          It's all lies. Disunity is imposed under the heading of expert opinion. How many different groups do not come up with, if only different.

          The purpose of this article is absolutely correct precisely in an attempt to disunite and intimidate. They train these experts, the level of the article is really low for a thinking person.
      2. explorer
        explorer 16 May 2013 10: 30 New
        In this analysis, it is the Weimar variant that raises doubts:
        what can a dictator give? - to squeeze migration (to give their work to local)? but this is not enough, how will the carrot be made? More rights for Russians? Show me this "100% purebred" Russian?
        Other options can be named, but they are poorly feasible in our time, the scale and diversity of the population are too large. There is no stratum to rely on (where is the stratum of small shopkeepers? Or proletarians?)
        On the other hand, any sudden movements will lead to the collapse of everything, according to the version worse than the Yugoslav one. Maybe these experts are pushing to this ???
  2. ibn_hohol
    ibn_hohol 16 May 2013 06: 53 New
    I am not saying that the first scenario is impossible in Russia. However, the danger of the second is obvious: it is much simpler and, if nothing is done, due to historical inertia, it is he who can be realized "

    The "smart" uncle forgot that our version was still purely at 17, but as an employee of VSHE he is very afraid of him, since he will be the first to hang on the pole.
  3. politruk419
    politruk419 16 May 2013 08: 05 New
    Apart from the personality of Pain himself (and people like him at the HSE Legion), I want to note that his forecast about the coming to power of the National Socialists in Russia is unlikely.
    Firstly, Putin is not Ginderburg and is keeping the reins of personnel policy securely. In the absence of a reserve, "sets the brains" of those ministers that are available.
    Secondly, the Caucasus will not vote for "Zhirinovsky in a cube". The Caucasus clearly votes on the orders of the Kremlin and there is strict with this.
    Third, the Russian ultra-right movement is fragmented and marginalized. There, normal honest ones are adequate with a language not out of the ass - one or two and obchelsya.Krom Dushenov and Krylov. But among them the Hitlers are Nikos. I would rather believe in the coming to power of monarchists. They, it seems, have recently been making contact with the Zyuganovskys, invited to the Izborsk Club and want to revive the Empire as a harbinger of the restoration of the Monarchy.
    Fourth, Putin has five more years before the re-election. I think if he defeats the liberals of the DAM, then no one will move him.
  4. Kaa
    Kaa 16 May 2013 09: 10 New
    "Democracy is the worst form of government ..." - Sir Winston Churchill. "Spain, the fourth largest GDP country in the euro area, remains extremely tense. The Spanish economy is in an acute phase of a protracted systemic crisis. The economic recession has been exhaustingly long, accompanied by shocks in the banking and financial sector and severe social and political consequences. Spain is also experiencing an institutional crisis. This manifested itself in connection with the endless corruption scandals of recent times and, especially, the demands for constitutional reform and the granting of independence to Catalonia.... "We have come to a state where not a single institute is working," said Juan Luis Cebrian, head of the largest publishing house PRISA, describing the current situation.Interruptions in the functioning of the economy began to undermine the material basis of the normal existence of the state and violate the principles of "social solidarity", "cohesion" and "justice" proclaimed and enshrined in official documents. Comparatively effective and reliable mechanisms of social protection of the bulk of the population in the conditions of the prolonged recession began to stall. Millions of Spaniards, including the middle class, faced deprivation, many for the first time in a long time living below the poverty line. The crisis has sharply exacerbated the material inequality that persists in society. For the government of M. Rahoy, the main institutional danger is that there is a fairly broad agreement in society on the need for constitutional reform. According to many jurists and politicians, the defects of the modern political and administrative system of Spain are laid down in the 1978 Constitution.., which was adopted in completely different historical conditions and does not correspond to the modern realities of the Spanish state. ТАК ЧТО ВОТ К ЧЕМУ ПРИВОДИТ УПОМИНАЕМЫЙ АВТОРОМ СЦЕНАРИЙ "ГРАЖДАНСКОГО СОГЛАСИЯ"-ПАКТ МОНКЛОА, НАМ ТАКИЕ РЕЦЕПТЫ И ДАРОМ НЕ НАТЬ...
  5. z-exit
    z-exit 16 May 2013 09: 31 New
    The article presents a murky view of modern society.
    Too much weight is attached to the existing political trends in the life of modern Russian society, so the author's attempt to transpose party characteristics into the life of society looks ridiculous.
  6. Egoza
    Egoza 16 May 2013 10: 17 New
    Russia has always followed its own path. And no research can envisage this path. all that remains is to open his eyes wide to the gentlemen when this path becomes apparent. And close your mouth with your predictions.
  7. Standard Oil
    Standard Oil 16 May 2013 10: 29 New
    Well, the government is now really very weak and its authority is zero, but a repetition of the Weimar scenario is unlikely, rather with some reservations and removing nuclear weapons, Russia reminds France before World War II.
  8. Canep
    Canep 16 May 2013 10: 34 New
    To be honest, I did not understand anything at all, about which association is the author trampling on? Are we going to "liberate" someone?
  9. Naval
    Naval 16 May 2013 13: 09 New
    Our research has shown that the only message common to the mass audience of each of the four groups is xenophobia. Islamophobia, Caucasophobia, migrantophobia are common even among liberals, and in other movements they are even stronger. Social justice ideas are also growing in popularity
    Or maybe this is the unifying national idea that our government is looking for after the collapse of the Union, and cannot find it?
  10. dmb
    dmb 16 May 2013 13: 51 New
    Mr. Pain is one of the most prominent representatives of the infamous Gaidar and K. By the way, he was not particularly embarrassed by either Yeltsin’s authoritarianism or the shooting of parliament. This is all within the framework of democracy. But the article is interesting and interesting not by its content, but by the fact that Pain wrote it, an activist who successfully worked in the past gadyushnik (Presidential Administration) and who is safely in the present (HSE). He gives a fairly correct assessment of the opposition. At the same time, unlike the “power singers” present on the site, he does not include the liberal part in the person of the effective opposition in the person of Navalny, Sobchak and Nemtsov, who are not actually such. Every sane person understands that the authorities were overjoyed to see the abovementioned on the rostrum of Bolotnaya, and realizing that they could only compete with them in an attempt to change power in the League of Urban Crazies. But Pain wrote about other forces, and here one of the two, either he sets the stage for his “influence” in their orderly ranks in case of victory, or he wants this “influence” in the ranks of the current government with a cry: “I warned you " Unambiguously, only one thing can be said, he thinks the least about the people. The third option is emigration, I think you can’t consider it, because there are a dime a dozen political scientists there, and even Berezovsky could not survive, whose dough was clearly more than that of Pain.
  11. Semyon Albertovich
    Semyon Albertovich 16 May 2013 14: 04 New
    “You can't understand Russia with your mind,” especially Emil Pain. Political strategists and other professors of political noodles mutate in the direction of large fees for "research". The Russian people have always looked for truth and justice; and already empty promises, two-party system of lies, ridiculous PR propaganda of completely absurd decisions (the law on donation, Serdyukov's "reforms", etc.), punitive sanctions - the people of the Russian Federation cannot be stopped in their striving for justice and the truth of life.
  12. knn54
    knn54 16 May 2013 15: 09 New
    In Russia now there is no powerlessness and UNECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT. Which Weimar?
    -After a series of rallies in December - May last year ...
    The kept women of the State Department are NOT AN INDICATOR OF THE RUSSIAN SOCIETY, they are with a gulkin nose.