The main organizational force of the "color" protest is the group, actively supported by the West. To achieve their goals, its representatives can even sacrifice the integrity of the state. However, the Russian authorities are able to prevent the "color revolution" in the country and eliminate the conditions for its occurrence.
The reality of the threat of “color” changes in Russia is obvious. An analysis of the situation in the country suggests a significant increase in social contradictions and conflicts in society by the winter-spring period of 2013 – 2014.
This is due both to objective factors - the growing global crisis and the strengthening of negative trends in the Russian economy caused by world turmoil and Russia's accession to the WTO, and subjective - the intention of Western elites, primarily the United States, to solve the problems of their civilization at the expense of the peoples of other countries and the desire of the domestic liberal-Westernist oligarchic groupings to return power.
The current leadership has a wide range of methods and means of neutralizing a possible “color revolution” in Russia. At the same time, the key condition for victory is the choice of a more effective way of action than that of the opponent.
Therefore, in order to eliminate the “color” threat in the country, a consistent and clearly coordinated set of actions on a national scale is needed, aimed at eliminating the conditions for the occurrence of such a revolution and eliminating forces ready and able to carry it out from the political arena.
Analysis of the social structure of the society and the political field of Russia shows that the main components of the “color revolution” are the liberal-Western group in the political and economic elite of the country, foreign support and part of the active protest groups of the population.
The main organizing force here is the liberal-Westernist group. Its components are the ideological core, the raw and financial oligarchy, the lobby in the executive and legislative branches, and the liberal opposition.
Foreign forces supporting this group solve the tasks of intellectual, political, ideological, and in part material support for its activities. They are represented by state and non-state organizations that are deployed both in foreign territory and in Russia. These forces determine the strategy and tactics of preparing and conducting protest actions. In addition, they provide international support to revolutionaries politically and morally-psychologically. Foreign material assistance to the organizers of the revolution is also significant.
The basis of mass support for "color" changes is an active part of the population with a cosmopolitan and liberal-Western position, as well as having no clear ideological guidelines, as a rule, dissatisfied with material and social situation. Among them, it is advisable to single out organized groups (small parties of liberal nationalists, marginal organizations with a blurred ideology) and an unorganized, politically immature part, mostly young people.
The strengths of the “colored” forces in Russia are the presence of a good economic base, strong foreign support, tangible influence in the Russian economy and politics, control over a significant part of the electronic media, and good representation in the blogosphere.
The weaknesses of the adherents of such a revolution include:
The main grouping in the political elite of Russia, actively opposing the “color revolution”, is the imperial one. For her, such changes, accompanied by the destruction of the system of power and the collapse of the country, are destructive.
The opposition parties and movements of patriotic, socialist and communist orientation also act as objective opponents of the revolution. Their participation in such a revolution is possible either due to political myopia, or to seize the initiative from the liberals, with the obvious loss of power by the current leadership of the country.
The strengths of the opponents of the “color” upheavals are dominance in the organs of all branches of government and in the federal media, the presence of a powerful economic base, control over the power structures of the state, the presence of relatively authoritative and charismatic leaders, the relative attractiveness of their ideological and conceptual foundations in the eyes of the active part of protest layers population.
Their weaknesses are ideological disunity, the presence of a political confrontation between opposition parties and power structures, mutual distrust, and the lack of foreign support against the hostile attitude of a significant part of foreign elites.
Goals, objectives and stages
To eliminate the threat of a “color revolution” in Russia, it is necessary to solve the following main tasks:
An effective strategy to prevent such a revolution should involve the maximum underlining and subsequent use of the weaknesses of the group of its supporters.
Opponents of the “color” scenario in government and opposition are obliged, by eliminating their organizational problems, to place responsibility for the crisis phenomena in the Russian economy on the leaders of Western liberals and the whole liberal idea. After that, having paralyzed the political activities of pro-Western NPOs, to eliminate key figures in power structures and the most important spheres of the economy, to further liquidate the organizational, ideological and economic basis of such a revolution in Russia, thereby destroying the very possibility of it.
Based on this, the strategy to prevent color shocks can involve five main steps.
The first is “organizational”, suggesting the elimination of organizational problems and contradictions among the forces opposed to the revolution as the main goal. The priority tasks of this stage are the elimination of political confrontation and mutual distrust between patriotic opposition parties (movements) and representatives of the imperial group in power; attracting the most qualified specialists in the organization of political struggle from the expert community to the preparation of counter-revolutionary actions; creating in the most general conceptual form, without a detailed study, ideological foundations, consolidation of power and patriotic opposition; the formation of the core of the party (movement) capable of consolidating the most active part of the protest population. The duration of this stage can be from two to three to four to five months, depending on the intensity and organization of actions of the authorities. Specific conditions of the situation dictate the need to meet within two to three months, ensuring the solution of the main tasks by October-November of the current year.
The second stage - “the appointment of the perpetrators. Its main goal is to discredit the leaders of the liberal-Western group, supporting their NGOs and the most liberal idea. The main task of this stage is to lay the blame for the collapse of the 90-ies, the subsequent unpopular measures and the current economic difficulties on specific individuals from among the leaders of the liberal-Western grouping and the very liberal ideology on which they rely. At the same time, the leaders of the imperial group in power must distance themselves from the liberal idea. Another important task of this stage is the discrediting of supporting liberal-Westerners of NKO as agents of foreign influence hostile to Russia. At the same time, the population needs to propose new ideological and conceptual bases for the development of the country, demonstrating a real departure from the destructive liberal course and a transition to a truly breakthrough development path of the country, involving a real revival of industry, science, education and national culture, ensuring a decent life for the majority of the population. The key content of this stage should be an information operation covering the entire territory of the country while concentrating efforts on large cities, primarily Moscow and St. Petersburg. In terms of duration, it should not exceed one to two months in order to prevent the adversary from organizing an effective opposition.
During the third stage, the “top cleansing,” the most odious and influential figures of Western liberals from all levels of government and the leadership of leading state corporations should be eliminated. A very effective measure in this direction should be the adoption of a law prohibiting persons from abroad to hold positions in government bodies. During this stage, the ruling elite, in addition to eliminating outright supporters of the “color revolution” from it, should go to bringing to justice the most odious figures, for example, Serdyukov and Chubais. All these actions need to be provided with strong support as part of a special information operation. If successful, the liberals will lose the ability to exert significant influence on the activities of government bodies, and representatives of the imperial group will appear before the population as real "fighters against the destroyers of Russia" who are ready to really recreate its power. As a result, they will win the support of a significant part of the protest population. For the duration of this stage should not exceed two months.
At the fourth stage - “disorganization” - the activity of the organizational centers of the adherents of the “color revolution” with their subsequent disintegration should be paralyzed. During this stage, it is necessary to discredit (and even better isolate) the surviving leaders of the liberal-Western group, disrupt the activities of the organizational centers of the “color revolution” supporters using agents of influence of special services, and prohibit the activities of their key political organizations (with the preliminary creation of the necessary legal and regulatory conditions) . At the same time, it is necessary to form legal and moral-psychological preconditions for the elimination of Western-supported liberals from the Russian business community. The duration of this stage may be about three months.
During the last, fifth stage, it is advisable to eliminate the conditions for the emergence of a “color revolution” in Russia, including economic and ideological ones. Those who are highly dependent on foreign economic and political institutions should be removed from the Russian business community. At the same time, it seems quite acceptable to nationalize their assets with proper legal and moral-psychological support. An important task of this stage is the elimination of Western liberals from the Russian media space, primarily from television and radio broadcasting. The duration of this phase may be five to six months or more. However, after two or three months, the economic base of the “color revolution” in Russia will be largely eliminated.
Thus, the Russian authorities will be able to prevent the “color revolution” in the country in the rather complicated winter-spring period of 2013 – 2014 and eliminate the conditions for its occurrence for the future.
To parry the "color" scenario, you must use all possible methods of action. Their diversity and scale imply the need to involve all government structures and a significant part of non-governmental organizations for this purpose:
All the listed forces and means differ significantly in terms of effects and results obtained, but the effectiveness of each of them is directly dependent. This determines the need for the closest coordination of the actions of various structures by a single plan and plan, as well as the operational management of them from a single center.