C-300 for Syria, 5-I Mediterranean squadron and Libyan lessons
10 May specialist. correspondent ITAR-TASS Julia Semenova and Irina Polina they handed over from Warsaw a statement by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, made after a meeting with the foreign ministers of Poland and Germany, Radoslaw Sikorski and Guido Westerwelle.
A Western journalist asked for clarification that Russia allegedly "plans to sell Syrian anti-aircraft missile systems C-300." Comrade Lavrov said in response: “Russia does not plan to sell, Russia has long since sold and completes deliveries of equipment under signed contracts, which is anti-aircraft systems.” He added: “This is not prohibited by any international norms, it’s a defensive weapon».
Sergei Lavrov does not believe that Syria could be attacked from the air: that would be fantastic. According to him, these weapons are “designed so that, in this case, Syria will have the opportunity to protect itself from air strikes. And this, as we know, is not quite a fantastic scenario. ”
In the media, a wave of notes, comments, conjectures, guesses, and a variety of speculations about the supply of C-300 immediately passed. Someone argued that Russia would not supply anything, including C-300; others have argued that it will be Russia that will deliver C-300 just in the near future. Various interpretations of Lavrov's words also appeared — a cleaner of those interpretations that Comrade Kojeve, the interpreter of Hegel, gave to the works of Hegel himself, which very few people managed to comprehend in the original source.
The site "Vesti" On the same day, that is, on May 10, a note appeared, starting with the phrases: “Russia stops supplying weapons, Syria will no longer receive C-300 complexes. This was stated by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, adding that the obligations under the old contracts will still be fulfilled. ”
IA "REX" S. Lavrov’s words seemed to be somewhat loose (quotes when quoting are not found there): “Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Russia will no longer sell C-300 complexes to Syria: Moscow will no longer sell weapons under the same contracts, - ITAR-TASS reported.
In addition to this retelling, an expressive comment was made by the political scientist and the first vice-president of the Center for Strategic Development Modeling Grigory Trofimchuk:
It is strange that Russian diplomats know so badly the history of their own state. For example, if Stalin had said the same thing to the Spanish communists, disowning their problems with Franco, the war would have come to Russia already in the 1939 year, immediately after Poland. The present-day Russian Federation will also have to fight - but only in the worst conditions, when she herself will surrender all her partners around the world. All "dictators", "tyrants" and "executioners," one and all. "
There are, on the “REX”, however, other opinions. For example, political designer Yury Yuryev believes that Lavrov’s statement can be interpreted in two ways. According to the analyst, Syria is able to repay debts by rights to land or subsoil. Hence, it is highly likely that Russia will move to a new contractual stage on the basis of clearing according to calculations. It makes sense for Russia to carry out affairs to the end without incurring losses, the political constructor believes. True, if Israel gives Russia any guarantees for Syria or compensates for losses, Russia can be satisfied with this, he said. But the prospects here are bleak: in the future, the Syrian rebels can engage in terrorism around the world. Of course, in Russia.
A completely different interpretation of a possible event is given in the electronic version of the newspaper. "Work" from 14 May. The subtitle (“Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told his EU colleagues why Russia supplies C-300 to Syria”) already prompts the reader to the idea that Russia does not stop deliveries, but carries them out. At the same time, the idea is expressed in the article that the West is aggressively promoting the ideas of invading Syria, for which it is ready to offer something to Russia on political barter.
The material states that during the meeting of Sergey Lavrov with colleagues from the Foreign Ministries of Poland and Germany, the latter “very nervously” asked, why does Russia supply Syria with C-300? To which the head of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs remarked that we are only carrying out the delivery of these complexes under previously signed contracts, and then Russia is not going to conclude new agreements with Damascus. Lavrov recalled that C-300 is a weapon of defense, but this is what “upset” the Germans and Poles.
The observer concludes that the potential ability of Damascus to repel an air threat does not please the Europeans, and therefore, "the question of a foreign invasion of Syria has long been resolved for them."
It was then that the speech turned to a tired topic, which should be addressed to the Minister of Foreign Affairs. Poles and Germans reminded Comrade Lavrov of how great it would be for Russians to get visa-free entry into the EU. Subtext: you, in exchange for this generous offer, do not sell C-300 to those countries that we have sentenced to destruction. And you will be "a window to Paris."
But that's the whole point, that Russia is not “any other country”, plus the Russians, unlike the Young Europeans, have a very good historical memory - we remember what the European political pragmatics in the 30 of the last century in relation to To Hitler. Therefore, Lavrov acted in this case both decently and pragmatically: we will conduct negotiations on a visa-free regime, but we will not allow Syria to be offended. ”
Therefore, the information that Syria allegedly already received the first batch of C-300, brought confusion in European international affairs. And the attack on Syria seems to be postponed again, the Truda columnist writes.
Information about this allegedly put party of complexes spread in the media with the filing of the London edition of Al-Quds al-Arabi. This newspaper informed its readers that Russia has already delivered C-300 rocket launchers to the territory of Syria, against deliveries of which Israel and the United States sharply object, reports "Sight" with reference to the IA "Cursor". Systems supposedly delivered to Syria, but not yet put into action, and are under the supervision of Russian experts.
The American edition also wrote about it. "WND" (The author of the material - Aaron Klein). Referring to some sources in the "Arab intelligence", the journalist said that the C-300 complexes reached Syria last week. At the same time, Israeli security sources said that there is no information to confirm the Arab messages. And publications such as the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times write that Israel sent a message to the Obama administration, describing a Russian-Syrian deal to sell advanced anti-aircraft missile systems as inevitable. In response, White House spokesman Jay Carney told reporters aboard the Air Force One on the way to Texas that the administration was aware of the reports and was disappointed that Russia continued to support the “Syrian regime.”
“We consistently call on Russia to stop fueling the Assad regime with Russian weapons, including air defense systems, which destabilize the situation in the region,” Carney said. “We have also been saying for a long time that Russia could play a more constructive role in Syria.”
Anna Analbaeva (network newspaper "Sight") recalls that the C-300 theme was raised during the recent meeting between Putin and Cameron. According to the newspaper Kommersant, she writes, the Russian leader told the head of the British cabinet that C-300 would be delivered to Syria without fail.
On the issue of non-delivery, one cannot avoid silence and the reaction of Israel. She in recent weeks - as a litmus test, allowing you to check the accuracy of certain statements and interpretations. If Tel Aviv is concerned about something, it means that he has a reason. And if Benjamin Netanyahu gathered in Russia, then intelligence reported him to C-300 for Assad. And in general, a series of Moscow visits makes you wonder: Kerry, Cameron, now here is Netanyahu ...
As the RIA News"Russian experts do not expect any "breakthrough" decisions from the meeting of Vladimir Putin with the Israeli Prime Minister.
Boris Dolgov, a senior researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, says: “This (meeting) is quite an important stage in Russian-Israeli relations. But I am not inclined to believe that this will be a breakthrough meeting that will change the relationship. " He adds: “Perhaps the issue of military shipments of Russia to Syria will be raised. But, in my opinion, this should not worry Israel, since these weapons are defensive, air defense systems that must protect Syria. "
According to Yevgeny Satanovsky, President of the Institute of the Middle East, “Netanyahu comes to us with a very specific program on the topic of conversation, instructive and imperative, that we would rather not change the balance of military technology and equipment in the Middle East and not sell C-300” .
The expert found it difficult to predict how the meeting could end, but noted that "Israel ... has something to offer." In particular, "the question is now about the Mediterranean squadron of Russia, where it will be based." "... Near Haifa, it is no coincidence that the landing ship" Azov "just came in for the first time in history."
RIA "News»Recalls that the Russian military ship for the first time in the history of bilateral relations arrived on May 1 in Israel to congratulate the locals, first of all the veterans of the Great Patriotic War, on the anniversary of the Victory.
Thus, a basis for one more alleged political barter appears: non-delivery of C-300 in exchange for the “green light” from Israel to Russian ships. The theme of the revival of the Mediterranean squadron of the Navy - not the last in popularity in the media.
Nikita Sorokin ("Voice of Russia") writes that it is about rebuilding the 5 of the Mediterranean squadron, which defended the interests of the country in the region during the cold war era. Back in February, information appeared that the Russian General Staff was working on the issue of deploying a permanent operational connection of the Navy by the 2015 in the Mediterranean.
The other day, the commander in chief of the Russian Navy fleet Admiral Viktor Chirkov called the estimated size of the Mediterranean group: five to six ships. The group will include submarines and, probably, helicopter carriers of the Mistral type.
According to Comrade Chirkov, the Mediterranean Connection will be formed on a rotational basis from warships and auxiliary vessels of the Black Sea, Northern, Baltic and Pacific Fleets. A training program for staff officers has already been launched, who will permanently carry out the operational management of this group.
In an interview with Golos Rossii, the chief editor of the Arms Export magazine, Andrei Frolov, explained:
According to the expert, a detachment of Russian warships in the Mediterranean can be viewed as a certain element of international efforts to enhance regional stability.
Vasily Belozerov, co-chairman of the Association of Military Political Scientists, speaks of possible high costs, which are likely to be justified - if it is clear what our country's interests are in the region. Finding this squadron in the Mediterranean, he explains, will be expensive, and you need to know why taxpayers allocate money for this.
Tartus is Tartus, and, according to Vasily Belozerov, it must be borne in mind that the current situation is different from the period when the USSR could deploy and support a large naval group. Now the conditions for this are not ideal: Russia no longer has such allies on which the USSR could count.
Returning to the “plot ring” to Israel, it is necessary to point out that as early as Thursday last week the Israeli authorities asked Russia not to sell C-300 to Syria. He writes about it IA "Finmarket" with reference to "IFX-News". The Turkish newspaper Hurriyet wrote about the appeal on Thursday, citing representatives of the Israeli authorities.
Earlier, recalls "Finmarket", "Wall Street Journal", also referring to representatives of the Israeli authorities, said that the implementation of an agreement on the supply of Russian systems C-300 Syria is inevitable. This publication noted that "according to information received by the Israelis in recent days, Syria makes payments in agreement with Moscow from 2010 on the purchase of four batteries worth $ 900 million." The delivery includes six launchers and 144 operational missiles with an 125 range of miles. The first delivery can be made in the next three months.
"If Syria acquires and places these systems, then any international intervention in Syria will be significantly complicated," the newspaper quoted the views of official representatives in the US and the Middle East.
Anna Raiva (9 Channel, Israel), cites the opinion of Nachman Shay, a member of the Knesset, a member of the parliamentary commission on foreign affairs and defense. He believes that the "Assad regime" will fall. At the same time, Putin looks to the future and thinks what step he should take - and is it right for Assad to make “such an expensive gift,” the deputy notes. According to the expert, Putin understands that Israel has a strong position in the Middle East.
But political analyst Zeev Khanin suggests that Benjamin Netanyahu decided to offer Putin a new role: not an antagonist to the West in the Middle East, but a leading partner in a regional settlement. Not only on the Syrian front, but also in the peace process between Israel and Palestine. The outcome of Netanyahu’s meeting with Putin could be this: Russian weapons will miraculously linger on their way to Syria for several months.
In a survey of Israeli sources from IA "REGNUM"in particular, is quoted from isra.com, which states that after negotiations with Netanyahu, Putin will most likely agree not to send C-300 installations to Syria within the framework of the contract already concluded between Damascus and Moscow. In exchange, the West will give Moscow guarantees that the Libyan scenario in Syria will not happen again. Moscow will be ready to sacrifice Assad, but will not allow a sharp change of power in Syria.
On top of that, Moscow today denies the possibility of holding an international conference on Syria at the end of May. On this 11 May, "Interfax" said an unnamed Russian high-ranking source. The reason: the parties still have too many discrepancies regarding the conference format, RFI.
“Obviously, it is impossible to do this without representatives of the opposition,” RIA Novosti quotes a representative of the Russian delegation. Russia believes that the Syrian opposition does not have a “clear center” with which it is possible to negotiate, and who would subsequently assume the fulfillment of the commitments made.
So, the next few days will show whether Russia will fulfill its contractual obligations to the Syrian government. Probably, yes, he will. Experts who believe that the Kremlin is about to hand over Assad, in their interpretations of Lavrov’s statements and analysis of the current situation do not take into account the fact that everything happened quite quickly with Libya, and the Syrian issue has been in existence for the third year. We should not forget about it when it comes to the fact that Russian citizens continue to "stupidly" and selflessly love Assad. " In addition, the Libyan lesson is taken into account by many - and Assad, and people who make decisions in the Kremlin.
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