The Mine Apocalypse is a reality
The mine is one of the oldest weapons in humanity's arsenal. It's cheap and effective, as it happens. Since the 19th century, humanity has used mines on both land and sea with roughly equal lethality. In the 21st century, this weapon It is not used that often, but this does not mean that the mine's song is sung, on the contrary.
Today, all attention is focused on the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, connected by the Strait of Hormuz. There, Iran is targeting tankers from unfriendly states, repelling attacks from the US and Israel.
It should be noted that, having lost up to two dozen warships, having practically no aviation, operating with a clearly insufficient amount of funds Defense, however, Iran is coping with the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz more than successfully. With just anti-ship coastal defenses missile complexes. But that's far from all that the Iranian military, especially the IRGC, can do.
Considering that Tehran has set military operations to a kind of automatic mode, and missiles will regularly attack ships in the strait and oil and gas infrastructure facilities on the opposite shore, regardless of which other members of the ruling elite the Israeli or American military can reach, they will strike. With missiles. Until their adversaries are completely exhausted, fortunately, Iran still has more than enough of this stuff in its underground storage facilities.
All the US can boast of so far is the destruction of Iranian ships. The question is: what is the value of this victory? What is Iran's main objective today?
Iran has decided to take its neighboring oil traders by the throat seriously, thereby demonstrating to the world that the US isn't the only one calling the shots. And, you'll agree, it's working so far.
But even if things don't go as the ayatollahs planned—and we're already seeing that these guys are so good at drawing conclusions and planning that God bless every general—Iran has a backup plan.
And you guessed it, these are mines
The US stated that everything is mine-sweeping fleet Iran, at rock bottom, therefore, has nothing to fear. In reality, this is nothing more than propaganda, and rather pointless one at that. A façade of victory, a complete betrayal.
Iran is capable of mining the Strait of Hormuz even if all its large surface ships are destroyed. And this would have no need for those slow and clumsy minesweepers and minelayers, which are easily neutralized from the air (as the Americans have demonstrated).
The situation's further development will depend on how decisively Tehran is prepared to influence the global oil market. And, apparently, it is.
Firstly, Iran has a considerable number of naval mines. No one knows exactly how many there are, and the quoted figures of "3 to 8" are, you must admit, too wide a range. But even if we take the average of 5, that's enough to turn the Strait of Hormuz into something like the Gulf of Finland during the Great Patriotic War.
What to install them with is definitely not a problem; moreover, today Iran has at its disposal a simply staggering force – IRGC boats, the number of which reaches several hundred.
The problem for everyone except Iran is that mines can't be laid by specialized minelayers or minesweepers. They can be dropped into the water from any vessel, from a motorboat to a cutter.
Moreover, boats and motorboats, like those in the photos, are even more advantageous: their heat signature is negligible compared to a normal ship, and they are practically invisible to strategic reconnaissance UAVs.
And then, one can simply imagine this: the simultaneous launch of 200 boats, each carrying two mines. The fairways in the Strait of Hormuz are about 20 km from the Iranian coast. There, at the deepest point, two fairways, each about 2-2,5 miles wide, have been laid closer to the opposite shore. So, an area 5 miles wide and 1 mile long is mined. Or just the fairway out of the strait. Then 2,5 x 1 mile. And 400 mines are dumped there. The question of "What is the Strait of Hormuz turning into?" need not be asked.
The most interesting thing is that the US simply won't be able to counter this. No matter how quickly the intelligence data travels, by the time the planes take off and arrive at the designated area, it will be too late. A boat, capable of traveling at 60 km/h on water, will cover those 20 kilometers, drop the mines, and return. And the whole thing will take less than an hour.
But even if the aircraft manage to reach such a deployment area, what can they do against such an armada? Considering the limited ammunition on the undercarriage, the low visibility, and the maneuverability of the submarines?
Mines aren't just for boats... They can be laid by submarines and fishing vessels, too. And such mines are very difficult to detect. Incidentally, it was mines, planted by who knows who and missed by American intelligence, that effectively thwarted the amphibious assault during Operation Desert Storm against Iraq. First, the Ticonderoga-class cruiser Princeton was blown up by a mine, and then two mines nearly sank the amphibious assault ship Tripoli. So the operation's headquarters decided to abandon the amphibious assault.
Tripoli after renovation
Furthermore, the Iranian army also has 240mm and 333mm MLRS systems, which can be used to lay mines. Yes, the days of round balls with protruding forks are over. historyToday, bottom mines have become cylindrical. So, launching a mine into the water from a distance of 50-60 km using a rocket or missile has become commonplace. Moreover, MLRS can operate from concealed positions, discreetly, at a considerable distance from the shoreline.
So Iranian MLRS can drop mines into the Gulf from concealed positions, undetected. True, these mines aren't as powerful as those dropped from ships. 533mm is larger than 333mm, and even more so than 240mm. But who said they're any less deadly in their effectiveness?
An anti-ship missile is actually a humane weapon. It hits a ship's side, sets fire to half the Strait of Hormuz, and so what? And that's it!
We look at the mine. It hits the bottom. And if it penetrates, it's pure chaos.
There is usually no fire, there is too little oxygen in tanks, and the breach is below the waterline. That is, a huge hole in the bottom, through which oil begins to leak. Yes, oil is somewhat lighter than water, but not by much. 0,7-1,04 g/cm3 versus 1 g/cm3 for water. So, not all oil is that lighter than water. But hydrostatic pressure has not been abolished, and therefore, if a hole is made through the bottom, through the tanker's ballast tanks, then under its own weight and pressure, the oil will flow out like a charm. And then everyone in the gulf will be very sad.
In short, mining the channel in the Strait of Hormuz isn't all that difficult. Two strips, each 3,2 km long, with a 2-kilometer dividing line between them. The total width of the shipping channel is approximately 10 km. This is precisely the distance Iran would need to mine if it aims to completely close the strait. And it's very easy to do, with a few thousand mines, several hundred boats, and a certain number of multiple launch rocket systems.
Yes, one option is to organize boat rides around the bay and then announce that the strait is mined. Who will check? If the US Navy has abandoned the idea of simply escorting ships through the strait, they certainly won't undertake mine clearance.
But even without such provocations that could produce the desired effect, Iran has the means to effectively close the Gulf. Mines, both domestically produced and Russian and Chinese. A wide variety, so to speak.
And what's most disturbing is the wide variety of models, from old-style mines used in the Iran-Iraq War to highly advanced products from friendly countries. From classic anchor-launched mines to bottom-laid and floating devices that shoot straight up after locking on to a target. Plus, there are homing electric torpedoes lying on the seabed that activate when a vessel approaches.
What can the US do to counter this? Not much, apparently.
What Donald Trump posted on his account on that very social network looks... funny.
"If Iran has laid any mines in the Strait of Hormuz, and we have no information that they have done so, we demand that they be removed immediately! If for any reason mines were laid and they are not removed urgently, the military consequences for Iran will be unprecedented."
Plus, there was a promise to launch missile strikes against any ship that attempts to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz.
Based on the above, it would be simply fascinating to see Arleigh Burke-class destroyers and aircraft from aircraft carriers targeting motorboats with missiles. The world has never seen anything like this before, and it would be a most fascinating spectacle.
This would surpass even what happened in the Strait during the Iran-Iraq War. During that conflict, which lasted from 1980 to 1988, both sides attacked each other's oil tankers to inflict maximum economic damage.
Iran then relied on mine warfare and actively deployed IRGC surface ships and speedboats. What's happening today isn't much different from what happened almost 50 years ago.
Iraq, whose navy had successfully sunk Iran, used aircraft and cruise missiles to target Iranian tankers. Since 1984, the "Tanker War" had escalated to the point that civilian vessels from other countries were also targeted. Everyone, in fact, was targeted. Even American warships.
The USS Stark after being hit by two Iranian anti-ship missiles.
According to the US Naval Institute, there were 451 attacks on merchant ships between 1981 and 1987. Iraqi forces carried out 283 of these attacks, while Iran carried out the remaining 168. As a result of the fighting, 116 civilian sailors were killed and 37 were injured. More than 30 million tons of cargo were lost.
Lloyd's International Maritime Register provides a higher estimate of losses: 546 damaged ships, with 430 seafarers killed. Thirty percent of these ships suffered critical damage or sank.
The tankers, slow and clumsy, were blown up by mines, and rockets and bombs were thrown at them.
To secure shipping, a number of countries, including the USSR, began forming convoys. Then the US and the USSR, along with a number of other countries, began to coerce Iran and Iraq, which had fallen into serious conflict, into making peace.
The situation could repeat itself today. The world will be in turmoil, just as it was back then. But during the Iran-Iraq conflict, the price of oil first rose to $115 per barrel and then stabilized at $85. Today, some expect the price to reach $200, but that's doubtful. However, Iran's mines could have an additional impact on all global processes.
Theoretically, Iran could indeed close the Strait of Hormuz by laying minefields. And the worst part is, this is the most effective measure. However, mining and the subsequent detonation of tankers could actually lead to an environmental disaster in the region.
Let's be logical, though - there's no point in even thinking about ecology there today.
Today, the US boasts about the sinking of Iranian ships as a crucial milestone in the war they unleashed. However, the situation is clear: the ships play no significant role in the strait, and the Americans genuinely fear Iran will mine the strait.
Everything is clear: the Iranian minesweepers have been destroyed by American aircraft, and the question of "who will clear the mines" isn't just hanging in the air—it's becoming clear who will have to work hard. But how the Americans and their lackeys will clear the channel under the guns of the launchers on the Iranian coast—that's the question. 33 kilometers is a point-blank range.
It is clear that politicians in the White House are trying their best to bury Iran, at least in theory, but in practice Tehran has not used all its capabilities, which is a credit to the Iranian command.
But the mine apocalypse is there, in Tehran. It would be nice if it stayed there, but everything depends on how the aggressors continue to behave.
The Tripoli, mentioned in the article, is heading for the shores of Iran with a cargo of 2,500 marines. I wonder if they'll find a mine for it this time, too?
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