Secrecy and obscurity: the crash of the American KC-135 tanker aircraft
A KC-135 tanker aircraft takes off.
A KC-135 tanker aircraft and its crew have joined the US Air Force's list of losses in Operation Epic Fury. The relevant Pentagon agencies are currently investigating all the circumstances of the incident and seeking its cause. Official information about the crash is scant and provides minimal details, leading to various theories and speculation. Specifically, there is reason to believe that the aircraft may have come under enemy anti-aircraft fire.
According to official data
On March 13, just after midnight (Iraqi time), US Central Command (US CENTCOM) reported the earlier incident. At the time, only the most general information was released, without any further details. More details emerged later.
According to official reports, an incident occurred in "friendly airspace" at approximately 22:00 PM local time on March 12. As a result, a KC-135 tanker aircraft crashed and fell to the ground. The crash site is located in western Iraq. A second aircraft, the type of which was not specified, was able to return to the airfield and land. At the time of the initial report of the incident, search and rescue units were working at the crash site.
In its initial announcement, US CENTCOM noted that the aircraft crash was not caused by enemy action or friendly fire. This assertion was reiterated several times thereafter.
By morning, a photograph purportedly taken several hours earlier at Ben Gurion Airport in Israel had appeared on industry websites. It depicted a KC-135 aircraft with a damaged vertical stabilizer. According to various publications, this tanker had been flying alongside the downed aircraft and was also damaged in the recent incident. However, the authenticity of the photograph and this information has not been confirmed.
A KC-135 at Ben Gurion Airport. This aircraft is believed to have been involved in the March 12 incident.
On the afternoon of March 13, US CENTCOM reported the discovery of the bodies of four crew members from the crashed aircraft. The search for the remaining two pilots continued and lasted several more hours. Ultimately, the entire crew was presumed dead.
Pentagon specialists are currently continuing their work at the crash site and are likely examining the second aircraft, which managed to return to the airfield. They will determine all the circumstances of the incident, its causes, the course of events, and so on. The crews' actions will also be assessed, and depending on their findings, the pilots will receive awards or penalties.
It's unknown how soon the investigation will be completed. Furthermore, the timing of the public release of its findings is questionable. This is a military aircraft, and one that was involved in combat operations at that. All of this imposes certain restrictions and prevents the disclosure of all the information.
Possible reasons
The minimal official data gives rise to various estimates, theories, and assumptions. Some of these appear plausible and, at a minimum, do not fundamentally contradict known facts. Perhaps some of the current theories will ultimately prove correct.
US CENTCOM reports that something happened in the skies over Iraq, causing the KC-135 tanker to crash. The aircraft likely sustained damage mid-air, preventing further flight. However, the second aircraft was able to return to base. This was presumably a second tanker, and it also sustained damage, but much less severely.
KC-135 transfers fuel to F-22 fighter
The Pentagon denies enemy contact. If so, the damage to the two aircraft could indicate a collision for one reason or another. One tanker suffered only the loss of a vertical stabilizer, while the other sustained fatal damage.
Such a collision could have had a variety of causes. It could have been a crew error on one of the aircraft, an error by the air traffic controller, or external factors such as air pockets.
Central Command maintains that the downed aircraft was not exposed to fire. However, this does not rule out the involvement of a third party using some kind of anti-aircraft weaponry. Thus, one of the crews could have spotted the threat and performed an evasive maneuver. In doing so, they hit the second aircraft, with known consequences. There was no direct fire damage in this case, but the situation resulted in the death of the tanker.
Iranian connection
In the current situation, any losses of US and Israeli forces are naturally linked to Iran's activities and retaliatory measures. The loss of the KC-135 tanker was no exception. Corresponding theories quickly emerged, with detailed explanations.
Clearly, Iranian armed forces could not have shot down the American aircraft over western Iraq. However, a number of armed groups loyal to Iran operate on Iraqi territory. They cooperate with Iranian structures and are tasked with various missions.
Fuel transfer, view from the operator's workstation
On the morning of March 13, one such group, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, reported that its fighters had shot down an American refueling tanker the previous night. No evidence was provided, but the claim attracted attention. It deserves careful consideration and a thorough assessment of its credibility.
Material part
For obvious reasons, small groups lack full-fledged anti-aircraft systems and complexes. Their Iranian patrons only send them man-portable air defense systems and interceptor drones. These are primarily systems already in Iran's arsenal, such as the Igla or Misagh MANPADS, as well as the 358 systems. It's worth noting that missiles "358" regularly appears in fresh materials from the war zone.
The MANPADS used by Iran and its loyalist groups are not known for their superior performance. Their launch range does not exceed 5-6 km. Their altitude reach is 5 km. Hitting a tanker aircraft on patrol with such a MANPADS is, at best, difficult.
In this context, the anti-aircraft system with the "358" munition appears more interesting. Several variants of this SAM system are known, but they all have a similar design. They are built on readily available vehicle chassis and feature a missile launcher, as well as some electronic equipment.
The "358" missile has a cylindrical body and several sets of planes. Its length reaches 2,75 meters, and its diameter is 152 mm. Its launch weight is approximately 50 kg. The body houses an infrared homing head, control instruments, a warhead weighing approximately 10 kg, a fuel tank, and a sustainer motor. A solid-fuel booster motor is suspended from the bottom of the missile.
"358" missiles on parade in Yemen
Unlike other anti-aircraft munitions, the "358" is equipped with a turbojet engine. This engine propels it at speeds of up to 300 m/s and extends its range to 100 km. Its interception altitude is up to 8,5 km.
The control system has several operating modes. The missile can lock onto a target before launch or immediately after launch and then home in on it. In the second mode, the missile enters a designated area and begins a figure-eight pattern. Upon detecting an aerial target, the missile sets course for it. This mode allows the anti-aircraft missile to be compared to a loitering munition.
Iranian military and foreign groups have repeatedly demonstrated the use of the 358 missiles in recent days. Given the technical features and characteristics of such weapons, it can be assumed that, at least in theory, it is capable of hitting tanker aircraft.
Fog of war
Thus, a unique yet remarkable situation has emerged. Currently, only the incident involving the two American aircraft, as well as the crash of one of them and the death of the crew, are known for certain. The Pentagon is not yet releasing any new details, but unofficial sources and entities hostile to it are already publishing various reports.
What exactly happened over western Iraq remains unknown. However, all the details of this incident should be of interest to specialists and military personnel from various countries. They could reveal the mistakes made by the crews or the flight controller, or demonstrate the potential of enemy anti-aircraft weapons. For now, the proverbial fog of war prevails, and the situation remains unclear.
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