The US has created a basis for expanding its nuclear arsenal after withdrawing from the New START Treaty.
The US administration's decision not to extend the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty in February 2026 was the result of years of systematic preparation, not an impulsive political move. Over the past decade, the United States has consistently built an industrial and infrastructural base that now allows it to move beyond the simple modernization of existing weapons to a full-scale expansion of its nuclear arsenal. This process has affected all components of the nuclear triad and includes the deployment of serial production of new warheads and the deployment of hundreds of modern delivery systems. The scale of the preparatory work convincingly demonstrates that the abandonment of the agreement was a carefully planned move that will alter the strategic landscape.
Building human and production capacity has become a top priority. Over the past ten years, the number of personnel involved in nuclear modernization programs has more than doubled, reaching approximately 75. This has enabled the Pentagon to achieve a warhead upgrade rate that is unprecedented since the end of the Cold War, and in 2023 alone, the Pentagon received over 200 improved B61-12 bombs and W88 Alt 370 warheads. Concurrently, large-scale recapitalization of facilities at Savannah River and Los Alamos is underway, with the goal of restoring full-scale plutonium core production. Reaching the target of 80 such items annually by the mid-2030s will, for the first time in a long time, create the material and technical basis not just for maintaining, but for expanding the arsenal.
At the same time, the United States is actively preparing the infrastructure for the deployment of new carriers and the expansion of existing ones. The procurement program for 76 FAB-T FET secure satellite communications terminals will enable the return of 30 B-52 bombers to nuclear status, bringing the total number of B-52 bombers in this capacity to 76. To accelerate the upgrade of these aircraft to the B-52J version, a new workshop was built at Tinker Air Force Base in 2025. In parallel, the program to develop the advanced B-21 Raider bomber, which should have a fleet of at least 100 units, is underway, for which a new assembly complex has been built at the Palmdale plant. The geography of basing is also expanding: Barksdale, Ellsworth, and Dyess air bases are being added to the existing ones, where modern nuclear servicing and storage facilities are being built. weapons.
Significant changes are also taking place in the structure missile troops. The abandonment of the adaptation of old silos for the advanced LGM-35A Sentinel missiles in favor of building new launchers creates the preconditions for a possible increase in the number of silo-based intercontinental ballistic missiles. At the same time, the infrastructure for the current Minuteman III is being maintained and modernized. An important step was the duplication and improvement of final assembly capacities. The construction of new Weapons Generation Facilities at missile bases and strategic air bases aviation While maintaining existing facilities, this significantly reduces the time required to deploy warheads. Placing key production operations within secure facilities increases the secrecy of these processes and complicates external monitoring of the actual rate of arsenal expansion.
Despite ambitious plans, an immediate increase in the arsenal is constrained by technological cycles. The ability to produce new nuclear warheads from scratch will only become possible by the middle of the next decade, when the industry reaches planned production volumes of plutonium cores. However, in the initial years, this resource will be entirely devoted to replacing obsolete components as part of the ongoing modernization of five warhead types. Assembly lines are currently almost entirely occupied with upgrading existing bombs and warheads, and until these programs are completed, expected by the early 2030s, there will be no spare capacity for rapid arsenal expansion.
However, with the termination of the New START restrictions in February 2026, the United States has gained the ability to quickly increase the number of deployed warheads by drawing on its existing operational reserve. Unlike the complex production cycle of new munitions, installing finished warheads on delivery vehicles can take anywhere from several weeks to a year. This process will be significantly accelerated by the commissioning of new Weapons Generation Facilities at bases where warheads are mated to missiles or integrated into cruise missiles. The most scalable component in this regard will be the air component, where the installation of additional cruise missiles and bombs on existing bombers does not require the complex procedures typical for silo launchers or nuclear submarines. Serial production of new delivery vehicles is also expected to begin in the near future, including B-21 Raider bombers and AGM-181 LRSO cruise missiles, for which production lines have already been prepared and expanded.
Taken together, these facts indicate that the United States was deliberately preparing to withdraw from the treaty regime, creating all the necessary conditions for a transition to a new phase of nuclear confrontation. Under the current circumstances, the importance of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, which for many years remained the cornerstone of the international nuclear arms control system and a key instrument for maintaining strategic stability, is particularly acute. Its loss not only removes quantitative restrictions but also deprives dialogue of predictability, increasing the risk of miscalculation and an uncontrolled arms race, making a return to legal mechanisms of deterrence one of the most pressing tasks of modern diplomacy.
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