An attack on Iran – potential or real?
Without even taking into account everything that relates to the naval group fleet The US, heading somewhere towards Iran, looking at what is happening in the air, we can conclude that everything that is happening is part of some action that cannot yet be clearly defined: whether this will be the tragedy of Iran's conquest, or another circus tent.
A large contingent of US Air Force aircraft is heading to the Middle East to bolster existing forces there as US President Donald Trump considers attacking Iran. Online tracking shows F-22 Raptor fighters, F-16 Fighting Falcons, E-3 Sentry radar aircraft, and a U-2 Dragon Lady spy plane (my God, even this veteran is being put to work!) either crossing the Atlantic or have just arrived in Europe. Additionally, the seventh guided missile destroyer rocket weapons The Arleigh Burke-class submarine, the Pinkney, was recently deployed to the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility.
As it is now being planned... but Trump is planning to terrorize the Iranians in a strange way.
Yes, two days ago, the Americans put on quite an impressive show in the skies for those following trackers. According to those monitoring the event, more than 30 F-16s, 15 F-35As, and a dozen F-22s of the oldest model participated, the deployment of which sparked quite a heated debate in American expert circles.
The purpose of these now-very-old aircraft's presence hasn't been clearly determined. In a previous article, I already ventured the notion that the Iranian Air Force won't engage in a "plane-on-plane" war, because neither their aircraft, nor, especially, their Iranian pilots, are entirely prepared for it.
Why ship them to the other side of the world, especially very old aircraft? There's only one answer: to have a reason to write them off! Let's face it, the US Air Force has been itching to quietly scrap the Raptors for a while now, because they pose no threat to anyone other than a budget blowout.
One hour of flight of the F-22 is almost equal to one hour of flight of the B-2, and the very complex and capricious design requires increased attention and maintenance, which is also easily measured in dollars.
Overall, the F-22's value is more than questionable, as demonstrated by the Raptors' impressive one-point victory record over the Chinese "balloon" bubble.
And so the F-22s are sent to war against Iran. It's profound, because the "pure" F-22 fighter, for which Iran has no rivals, looks like a clown in a circus arena during a weightlifting performance, given the presence of aircraft in the force that can handle not only the superiority functions of a fighter but also the duties of a bomber. And the F-35s can also show off.
But even with the flight something went wrong:
"Six fifth-generation F-22A Raptor fighters, departing the US mainland en route to Lakenheath Air Force Base in the UK, were forced to abort their flight and turn back. The reason was the abnormal condition of the tanker aircraft, which was supposed to provide in-flight refueling and effectively escort the group on the transatlantic leg of the flight. Furthermore, the condition of two aircraft in the group was a concern. Only half of the planned aircraft will be dispatched to the potential theater of operations."
Those guys from The War Zone, who we know, wrote this on "that very" social network... However, they'll all be banned soon, so it doesn't matter where they wrote it.
So, the tanker aircraft fell ill mid-flight and infected two Raptors. So it was decided to send all six back, presumably to prevent them from spreading the infection to others.
It just so happened that the Raptors once again failed to demonstrate their heroic prowess, but no matter, six more heroes will still have a chance to do so.
What about the rest?
The eastward flight of American aircraft proved to be a particularly intense phase of the overall buildup of forces that began after Trump began threatening Iran. Taken together, the forces currently amassing in the Middle East, combined with the capabilities of the Israeli Air Force, which includes hundreds of fighter jets, and US Air Force bombers based in the Middle East, capable of operating under the "global air power" concept, are sufficient to conduct a large-scale operation that could last not just days, but weeks.
A U.S. Air Force F-15E Strike Eagle assigned to the 391st Expeditionary Fighter Squadron is refueled by a KC-135 tanker.
At least 36 F-16 fighter jets are also deployed to the Middle East. According to available data, 12 of them are based at Aviano Air Base in Italy, 12 at Spangdahlem Air Base in Germany, and 12 at McEntire Joint National Guard Base in South Carolina.
These very aircraft, which are much better than the Raptors (and cheaper), can be used for defense against drones and air-to-air or air-to-ground missiles. The US Air Force already has a number of F-16 fighters in the Middle East, so this detachment clearly serves as a reinforcement for existing forces.
Two E-3 Sentry airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft have landed at Mildenhall Air Force Base in the UK, as we have already reported, and there is no doubt that their next destination will be the Middle East.
With all-round radar, advanced communications, and passive sensors, these aircraft will play a critical role in managing allied air battles and tracking Iranian threats, particularly, as the Americans themselves believe, drones and cruise missiles.
An E-3 Sentry airborne early warning and control aircraft, call sign DENALI01, lands at RAF Mildenhall in the UK.
In addition, at least one U-2 Dragon Lady reconnaissance aircraft is being deployed to the region.
The U-2 can conduct high-altitude surveillance and also serve as a communications link between F-22 and F-35 Lightning II stealth fighters. The presence of this veteran is difficult to explain, especially given the presence of several E-3s, which are far more capable than the older aircraft, whose primary function was photo reconnaissance, a task far better handled by satellites today.
Eighteen F-35A Lightning II stealth fighters took off from Lakenheath Air Force Base in the UK and flew to Muwaffaq Salti in central Jordan, which has become a central hub for US tactical fighters and other aircraft, as in Operation Midnight Strike.
These deployments follow previous movements of F-35A Lighting II fighters, F-15E Strike Eagles, E/A-18G Growlers, and other aircraft to Muwaffaq Salti, where they joined aircraft already stationed there, including close air support aircraft. aviation A-10 Thunderbolt II support.
MQ-9 Reaper drones, MC-130 special operations aircraft, and other American assets promoting peace and democracy are also stationed there. With the Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia becoming increasingly overcrowded, all these forces are being redeployed to Muwaffaq Salti, despite Amman's claims that it will not allow its airspace to be used for strikes against Iran.
It's possible, however, that Jordan made this statement for a domestic audience that fears war with Iran, especially if it means they would have to fight on Israel's side. A retaliatory strike by Iranian missile forces is entirely possible, and experience has shown that "all the king's horse and all the king's men" are incapable of repelling such an attack.
At sea, with the arrival of the Pinkney, the US Navy now has 12 surface combatants in the region, including a strike group consisting of the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and three Arleigh Burke-class destroyers, three Arleigh Burke-class ships independently deployed in the US Central Command region, and two more in the Mediterranean. There are also three Littoral Combat Ships (LCS), which are also currently in the US Central Command area of responsibility. There are also nuclear submarines, at least one of which is statutorily assigned to accompany each carrier strike group. Cruise missile submarines (SSGNs) are also possible, but their presence has not yet been disclosed.
Arleigh Burke-class destroyer USS Pinkney
Additionally, the Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group is currently in the 6th Fleet's area of responsibility. The carrier and its three Arleigh Burke-class escort ships, under Trump's orders, departed the Caribbean for the Middle East, where they participated in the operation to capture Venezuelan President Maduro.
Having two aircraft carriers with F/A-18E-F Super Hornets and EA-18G Growlers, and one carrier with F-35C fighters, escorted by Aegis-equipped destroyers and missiles, significantly increases mobile firepower, enhancing planning flexibility.
The aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford and part of its strike group are heading to the Middle East..
Intelligent Management of the Strait of Hormuz
As the US builds up its forces, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) closed the Strait of Hormuz for live-fire exercises. This is the first time Iran has closed part of the strait since Trump threatened military action against Iran in January.
The exercise, dubbed "Intelligent Governance of the Strait of Hormuz," began on Monday. It includes firing anti-ship cruise missiles at targets, as well as operations involving maritime drones and IRGC Navy submarines, conducted from three of the five Iranian islands where the IRGC maintains bases.
"The armed drones used in the exercises, capable of striking both air and sea targets, are among the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps's newest strategic platforms. They are widely used, although their names and technical specifications remain classified," claims the official Iranian publication FARS News.
A spokesman for US Central Command, which has previously warned against Iranian actions in the Strait of Hormuz, declined to comment on Tuesday.
On Tuesday morning, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei issued a warning to American warships. The warning was immediately labeled a threat by those on the other side, but how does a threat differ from a warning? Only in the possibility of its execution.
"We keep hearing that they've sent a warship to the shores of Iran," Khamenei said. "A warship is certainly a dangerous weapon, but a weapon capable of sinking it is even more dangerous."
The Iranian leader did not specify what kind of weapons he was talking about, but the point is that Iran currently has more than enough of such weapons.
Negotiations in Switzerland
Meanwhile, while both sides continue to rattle their sabres, indirect talks in Switzerland, brokered by Oman, concluded on Tuesday with an agreement on a "set of guidelines," according to Iran's Foreign Minister. Abbas Araghchi stated that both sides had agreed to exchange drafts of a possible deal. However, Araghchi "was as positive as he was evasive, not providing details about what was discussed or when the next round of talks might take place," as The New York Times noted.
Araghchi told Iranian state television that the talks were "more constructive" and made "good progress" compared to the previous round of talks in Oman this month.
However, there remains a wide gap between Washington and Tehran over what the future should be. Trump does not want Iran to have nuclear weapons or the ability to develop them, while Araghchi "stressed that Iran's right to use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes is inalienable, non-negotiable, and legally binding," he said in response to a question from the official Iranian news agency IRNA.
In an interview with Fox News on Tuesday, US Ambassador to NATO Matt Whitaker said the Trump administration is open to negotiations, but noted that Trump told reporters on Air Force One on Monday that "it would be a very bad day for Iran" if it decided not to reach an agreement.
While these negotiations may move to the next round, it is worth remembering that three days before the "Midnight Strike," the White House said Trump would make a decision "within two weeks" on whether to strike or continue negotiations.
Of course, there are already so many guns hanging on the walls of the Middle East theater that at least one will fire. The observed buildup of US air and naval forces in the region gives Trump more options and, most importantly, increases the likelihood that an attack will inflict serious damage on the Iranian regime, which could play a significant role in the negotiations. However, Iran's capabilities should not be overlooked.
The point is that we seem to be seeing the formation of the exact force composition that could be expected in the event of a large-scale air campaign against Iran, especially if Israel intends to play a leading role in it, using all its resources. But the manner in which this is being done is still highly questionable. There's a certain element of frivolity in what the United States is doing. These are ancient reconnaissance aircraft, first-generation Raptors, on their last legs... It really doesn't seem very serious, it's artificial. Which, however, doesn't diminish the capabilities of the newly created group.
Information