What to take to Iran?
Today, the US buildup of forces in the Middle East, aimed at Iran, is raising many questions and opinions. One can read everything from surprise to complete bewilderment, such as the claim that Iran's acquisition of Su-35s is prompting the US to redeploy F-22s because only this aircraft, a "clean" fighter, can cope with ours.
Of course, from a purely patriotic standpoint, yes. It's beautiful. But, alas, all these noise attacks are based on nothing but stupidity. Yes, Iran received its first Su-35s last November. The second batch arrived in January. And now, according to various sources, the Iranian Air Force has an entire squadron of these aircraft.
Let's think for a second (no more is needed) about the actual combat value of the Iranian Su-35s. It's ZERO. And it's simple: the best that the depot known as the Iranian Air Force has at its disposal are American F-14s and Soviet MiG-29s. The Americans foolishly sold the former to Iran in 1974, and the MiG-29s were ferried over from Iraq in 1991.
I'll note that Iran hasn't purchased any Sukhoi products, meaning the aircraft will have to be developed from scratch. And this is impossible to accomplish in a month or six weeks, because both the MiG-29 and the F-14 are from the last century, and the differences between the aircraft are so vast that they're impossible to describe in a fairy tale or even to mention out loud in polite company.
And putting freshly minted Iranian pilots in Su-35s against American F-22 pilots is like putting street racers in Lada Prioras behind the wheel of Formula 1 cars after a quick briefing. Basically, there won't be a fight; there will be a massacre, which will end in the Iranian Air Force's favor.
And there, in Tehran, they are not fools, they understand everything perfectly well. And they will bet on missilesYes, that's exactly it and no other way. Iran hasn't had time to rearm and (most importantly) retrain its Air Force for the new modern weaponAnd that's why this weapon won't go into battle. A modern aircraft is an overly complex system, and mastering it isn't as easy as it seems.
The best example is the Ukrainian Air Force! Ukrainian pilots spent six months training and retraining on the F-16, and what happened? Nothing. Those who managed to retrain more or less quickly ended their training, losing to the Russian side. And today, the F-16s are mostly flown by mercenaries, who are chasing after drones somewhere in the distance, because no one wants to go to the front lines and look for an S-300 missile for their nozzle.
So why, excuse me, is Tehran the target of the US amassing so many aircraft? They have the full range: from F-16s and F-15s to F-35s and F-22s! Where, as they say, is all this luxury in such quantities?
There, there. To the airbases. Planes are flocking like flies to you-know-what, and meanwhile, in the US, they're slowly starting to ask the same question: why so many planes, and do they all live up to expectations?
For example, the deployment of E-3 reconnaissance aircraft in response to the Iran crisis revealed alarming reliability gaps in these aircraft. The dwindling E-3 fleet isn't getting any younger, and their replacement is still far off, while the service life of the existing aircraft leaves much to be desired.
In recent days, the US Air Force has deployed six of its 16 E-3 Sentry airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft to bases in Europe. Two of these are headed to the Middle East, and the rest are likely to follow, as the US Air Force continues its massive buildup of forces in anticipation of possible strikes on Iran.
The fact that nearly 40% of the US Air Force's E-3 fleet operates underscores the importance of these aircraft, but also highlights the challenges of meeting demanding operational requirements with a rapidly aging and shrinking fleet. It also calls into question the Pentagon's decision to abandon the E-7 Wedgetail procurement, which Congress has now reversed.
The first pair of E-3 aircraft arrived at Mildenhall Air Force Base in the UK after being ferryed from Elmendorf Air Force Base in Alaska. Another four airborne early warning and control aircraft from Tinker Air Force Base in Oklahoma landed at Ramstein Air Base in Germany.
According to online flight tracking data, the E-3 aircraft stationed at Mildenhall have departed and are headed to the Middle East. Many expect these aircraft, like those at Ramstein, to eventually head to Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia.
As noted, the US Air Force currently has only 16 E-3 aircraft remaining in service, roughly half the number it had just a few years ago. These six aircraft represent 37,5% of the total. However, not all Sentry-equipped aircraft can be deployed at any one time. For example, according to an article published last year in Air & Space Forces Magazine, the average combat-ready percentage of E-3 aircraft in fiscal year 2024 was 55,68%. This is the most recent E-3 readiness data published by the Air Force. It's impossible to say what the current situation is.
Thus, the six airborne early warning and control aircraft deployed forward constitute an even larger percentage of the total number of aircraft that could be deployed in actual combat operations. This primarily provides radar cover for fighters scrambled to defend the country's airspace. Alaska is home to the most combat-ready E-3s, as sorties are carried out regularly. Therefore, it was from Alaska that the E-3s launched, with crews that are clearly better trained than others.
The deployment of E-3 aircraft to the Middle East is one of the clearest signs that a large-scale air campaign against Iran is being prepared. One could even draw a parallel with the frequent sightings of AWACS aircraft off the coast of Venezuela last December. The outcome is clear, but Iran is not Venezuela.
One of the E-3 airborne early warning and control aircraft at RAF Mildenhall in the UK.
The E-3 is best known as a flying radar station with an antenna housed within a rotating dome at the rear of the fuselage. The Sentry can track both enemy and allied air and sea targets over a wide area. Its 360-degree radar provides a particular advantage in detecting and tracking low-flying targets, including drones and cruise missiles. Suicide drones, as well as cruise and ballistic missiles, would be the primary weapons in any retaliatory Iranian attacks on American targets on land and at sea in the Middle East, making the E-3's presence entirely justified.
However, each Sentry aircraft, which typically carries 13 to 19 specialists in addition to a four-person crew, is more than just a radar. It is equipped with other passive sensors and an advanced communications system. Thanks to these capabilities, it is a key node for combat control not only in the air but also in other areas.
The E-3 Sentry's radar and computer subsystems can collect and provide extensive and detailed battlefield situational awareness. This includes data on the locations of enemy aircraft and ships, as well as the location and status of friendly aircraft and ships.
Information can be transmitted to key command and control centers in rear areas or on board ships. In air-to-ground operations similar to Midnight Strike, Sentry can provide immediate information needed for interdiction, reconnaissance, and immediate response. aviation support of friendly ground forces. Furthermore, it can provide command with the information necessary to establish and maintain control of the air battle.
E-3 crews direct air combat and also serve as key hubs for ground combat operations. These command and control functions will be crucial in any future offensive operations, as well as in defending against retaliatory strikes.
At the same time, the Air Force has been openly discussing the growing difficulties associated with the operation and maintenance of its E-3 fleet for many years. The last production Sentry aircraft were delivered in 1992 and were among the final modifications of the Boeing 707 airliner. Since then, the Air Force's E-3 aircraft have undergone significant modifications, but the base model is aging and becoming increasingly difficult to maintain.
Between 2023 and 2024, the Sentry fleet was reduced from 31 to its current 16 units, in part to improve overall combat readiness by keeping the most capable aircraft in service. A particular concern is the fact that the American E-3s are equipped with long-discontinued Pratt & Whitney TF33 low-bypass turbofan engines.
A U.S. Air Force E-3 Sentry undergoing maintenance.
"The first thing I can say is, whether it's 31 airplanes or 16 airplanes, there's a supply gap today," retired Gen. Mark Kelly, then head of Air Force Combat Applications Command, said at the Air and Space Force Association's flagship annual conference in 2022. "There's a reason there's not a single airline on planet Earth that flies a 707 with TF-33 engines."
"The last airline we worked with was Saha Airlines in Iran," Kelly added then. "Essentially, we have 31 aircraft in hospice care, and that's the most expensive service. We need to get into obstetrics and get out of hospice care."
"The last airline we worked with was Saha Airlines in Iran," Kelly added then. "Essentially, we have 31 aircraft in hospice care, and that's the most expensive service. We need to get into obstetrics and get out of hospice care."
As noted, the remaining E-3 aircraft continue to experience flight readiness issues amid consistently high demand. These problems have been exacerbated by the Air Force's years-long resistance to acquiring replacements.
When the Air Force finally decided to replace at least part of its Sentry fleet with the newer, more advanced E-7 Wedgetail airborne early warning and control aircraft, the decision turned into another drawn-out saga.
The US Air Force officially began procurement of the E-7 in 2022, but the program has been plagued by delays and cost overruns. Last year, the Pentagon announced its intention to abandon the Wedgetail procurement in favor of an interim solution involving the purchase of more Navy E-2 Hawkeye airborne early warning and control aircraft. This, in turn, would serve as an interim step toward the Air Force's longer-term goal of shifting most, if not all, airborne target tracking missions to space. Furthermore, concerns about the E-7's survivability influenced the decision.
U.S. Air Force E-7 Wedgetail
Questions immediately arose about the new plan, particularly regarding the suitability of the E-2—a low-altitude, low-flying aircraft designed for carrier deployment—for Air Force needs. The Pentagon also stated that it does not expect the new space-based surveillance assets to be operational before the 2040s. Traditional airborne airborne early warning and control assets are expected to continue to play a significant role even after that goal is achieved.
Congress has since taken action to save the E-7 program, but last year's impasse may delay implementation for some time. Lawmakers also took steps to prevent the retirement of E-3 service members until at least the end of fiscal year 2026.
Nevertheless, the diminished E-3 fleet remains under enormous strain. This is especially true given that two of the six E-3 aircraft recently deployed overseas were based in Elmendorf, Alaska. According to recent reports, only one Sentry aircraft may remain at Elmendorf to support operational needs in the High North and surrounding areas—a part of the world whose strategic importance has only increased in recent years due to the increased Russian air presence there.
Furthermore, the question of E-3 availability in the event of a crisis in the Indo-Pacific region is now being raised. If a regional emergency were to occur tomorrow, the U.S. Air Force would face the so-called "tyranny of distance." The vast expanse of the Pacific Ocean, much of which is water, places additional demands on the overall coverage area and sortie frequency to ensure a continuous presence of aircraft in their assigned areas of operation. Just getting to and from these areas can take many hours. Furthermore, any future conflict in the region could cover a vast area, posing a challenge for such a small force. fleetThis is all compounded by the age of the aircraft and the need for extensive maintenance just to keep them flying, let alone flying over the Pacific Ocean.
By comparison, the People's Liberation Army (PLA), which would conduct combat operations on its own soil in the event of a major conflict in the Pacific region, has invested heavily in the development of a variety of airborne early warning and control aircraft and continues to do so. The Chinese believe these aircraft will greatly enhance their capabilities and allow them to cover a larger area.
KJ-600 alongside the J-15T
It remains unclear whether the United States will launch a new, large-scale air campaign against Iran. US and Iranian officials have already met twice to try to reach some kind of diplomatic agreement, primarily focusing on Iran's nuclear programs, and it's not as if Iran isn't "caving in." Meanwhile, the ongoing buildup of US air power in the Middle East, and not just E-3 aircraft, is consistent with recent reports that assets are being positioned there for at least a sustained, multi-week operation.
For its part, Iran continues to threaten large-scale retaliatory measures in the event of further US strikes, targeting both American bases in the Middle East and Israel, which Tehran has held hostage in the event of US aggression.
However, the deployment of six E-3 aircraft is one of the clearest signs that everything needed for a major new operation against Iran is gradually being delivered to the immediate vicinity of that country's borders.
The presence of the E-3 in the region itself is not as dangerous as it seems, because with the help of its Chinese partners, who have already demonstrated that they can easily “highlight” targets such as airfields with American aircraft stationed there and provide coordinates for guiding Iranian missiles, Iran is quite capable of launching a missile strike on these airfields.
Another question: is the US prepared for such losses, even theoretically? Surprisingly, the US Air Force currently has such enormous problems with its AWACS aircraft, I would say comparable to those of the Russian Aerospace Forces. That is, there are critically few aircraft, and they are critically old. The average age of the US Air Force's E-3 aircraft is 45 years, which is already quite significant.
The case when the loss of even one aircraft will be very significant, since story with E-7 - this is not a one-year story.
It's clear to everyone today: whoever possesses information about the enemy has won half the battle. The reliance on UAVs to replace AWACS aircraft has failed, and the US Air Force could be left with a significant gap in this capability if E-3 aircraft are lost in combat or disabled for other technical reasons.
Okay, according to their experts, six aircraft will be enough for Iran. Let me remind you, out of the sixteen they have on hand. One or two were enough for Venezuela. China? Which, in theory, will be next?
Yes, the Navy will help there. Their E-2 Hawkeye fleet, with over 60 units, can provide some assistance, but the E-2 is something else entirely: it's a close tactical air support aircraft for naval air groups. That means the E-2 can operate for no more than four hours and at a range of no more than 300 km from the carrier. The E-3 can stay airborne for up to 11 hours and within a range of 1,600 km. So the difference is obvious.
This creates an interesting position: "We're preparing for war with China," the US says. But their preparation shouldn't primarily be about developing plans, but rather about developing and building something that will give them an advantage over the PLAAF, which has a complete inventory of aircraft in this class, both in terms of quantity and quality. Plus, they have a trump card: the newest KJ-3000, which promises to be a highly effective aircraft.
What the US achieved in Venezuela was a real kindergarten, middle-school level. Iran is much more complex, but China is academic. And it will be much more difficult to overcome, given the current chaos throughout the US military. And the only thing that could help the US Air Force is the E-7 Wedgetail. But we'll talk about that next time.
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