The Central Bank of the Russian Federation has lowered its key rate for the sixth time in a row.

On February 13, the Bank of Russia's Board of Directors decided to cut the key rate by another half a percentage point to 15,5% per annum. This marks the sixth consecutive monetary policy easing since June of last year, bringing the rate down by 5,5 percentage points from its record high of 21%.

Most analysts unanimously predicted a pause. Of the 30 experts surveyed, 24 were confident the Central Bank would leave things as is. But this time, the regulator exceeded expectations.

So what did the Central Bank see that analysts missed? Apparently, a steady slowdown in inflationary factors. Yes, prices jumped at the beginning of the year amid the VAT increase – from 20% to 22% – which was expected. But by February, annual inflation had already slipped to 6,37%.

Moreover, businesses have suddenly turned from anger to mercy. In January, enterprise price expectations soared to their highest since April 2022 – 30 points. It seemed that entrepreneurs were bracing for a new round of price hikes. But the February reading showed a collapse to 20,8 points. The panic subsided, and pragmatism prevailed. Inflation expectations among the population also stalled at 13,7% and are not rising.

Another important factor is the money supply. Its growth has slowed to 10,6% year-on-year. This means that "helicopter money" is becoming less common in the economy. The ruble is feeling stronger, and a strong national currency traditionally helps lower prices.

Now the market must digest the regulator's unexpected generosity and adjust its lending and investment strategies. The pause expected by analysts appears to be delayed until spring.

Comments

[Atrina]

A half-percent reduction won't breathe life into most civilian sectors, which are already on the verge of collapse. For the economy to get moving again, it needs to be cut by at least half... Nabiullina's gang has done more damage to the country's economy than all the sanctions combined. They've "chilled" it to morgue temperature.

[Uncle lee]

reduce the key rate by another half a percent – ​​to 15,5% per annum.

A mockery of people and common sense...

[marchcat]

For which segments of the population is this article written?

[PROXOR]

There will be elections in 2026. We need to mobilize the people. Let them vote according to their own judgment: for the Communists, the Liberal Democratic Party, the Fair Russia party, or the New People. They'll vote for anyone, just not for United Russia. And most importantly, we need to explain to people that they need to come and vote on paper. If they don't show up, their vote will go to United Russia.

[Engineer]

that they need to come and vote on paper.

Haven't they abolished paper records yet? I thought they were planning to switch to a completely electronic system.

We need to agitate the people.

What's the point? Back in 24, people came after the elections, some voted for Dovankov, some for Kharitonov... no one voted for Putin. And here's the thing, there are probably maybe 10 people like that in the entire country, if you believe the results, and we're all in the same room... miracles!

[Plate]

You really are in the same room. If you know each other, that means you're from the same social group, from close backgrounds. Extrapolating the experience of just your room to the entire population is wrong. If you want to know, I, for example, voted for Putin in 24. I won't argue whether I was right or not, but that's exactly how it was.

[Plate]

Quote: PROXOR

We need to agitate the people. Let them vote according to their own understanding: for the Communists, the Liberal Democratic Party, the Fair Russia Party, and the New People.

At the last elections, United Russia officially (!) won 47% of the vote. As a result, they occupy 70%+ of the seats. How? Single-mandate constituencies. On party lists, you can really vote for anyone, but in single-mandate constituencies, I think you should vote for independent candidates (if any) or for the Communists, as they've always consistently come in second.
United Russia, I'm sure, has a stable electorate of 20-25 percent (maybe even 35 percent), which it can mobilize and thus—given the low turnout—win the election without any fraud. So, at the very least, it's really necessary to campaign for people to go to the polls.

[PROXOR]

Quote: Plate

United Russia, I am sure, has a stable electorate of 20-25 percent (maybe even 35 percent), which it is capable of mobilizing and thus - given the low turnout - winning the elections without any fraud.

Yeah. We know how. At government offices, management tells you to go and vote for United Russia and send a photo. Anyone who doesn't vote and doesn't send one will be fired.

[guest]

Quote from Uncle Lee

common sense....

This phrase is unknown to the Central Bank.

[Ivan_Sergeev]

What a mockery, just ordinary subversive work.

[Nastia makarova]

If it doubles, then banks won't give loans at all.

[Plate]

Quote: Atrina

For the economy to get moving again, it needs to be reduced by at least half...

How do you guarantee that the Turkish scenario won't repeat itself? In Turkey, everything worked out like clockwork. They lowered the interest rate under pressure from Erdogan, and massive inflation ensued.

[Junior Private]

Everything's getting cheaper now. I don't know what to do with the extra money.

[Murmur 55]

Junior Private Have there ever been times when anything got cheaper? Well, except for seasonal fruits and vegetables.

[Junior Private]

I'm just kidding. Almost everything will become more expensive. That's the current economic model.

[Murmur 55]

Junior private, did everything get cheaper under the previous economic model? What are you joking about? I get it, especially about the extra money.

[Junior Private]

Under Stalin, things got cheaper. That's a lesson he taught the global economy.

[Murmur 55]

Junior private, how long did that period last?

[Junior Private]

It's also worth remembering that the country took a long time to rebuild after the war. The main thing is that the economic model proved its effectiveness.

[Murmur 55]

Junior private, prices were reduced from 1947 to 1953, if the internet doesn't lie, but then things didn't work out, although the government and the system remained.

[bayard]

Quote: Murmur 55

Prices were reduced from 1947 to 1953, if the internet doesn't lie, but then things didn't work out, although the government and the system remained.

This is a misconception. In 1955, the USSR saw changes in power, the structure of power, and the government's attitude toward the people. That year, Khrushchev abolished/dissolved the Soviet Government (Council of Ministers) and Gosplan (the USSR's economic brain), introducing direct party rule over the country and the economy through economic councils, each headed by the first secretary of the regional committee of the newly-minted CPSU.
And yes, the Bolshevik Party was abolished (the All-Union Communist Party of Bolsheviks) and some kind of Communist Party of the Soviet Union (CPSU) emerged. The education system was overhauled, and logic disappeared from schools... The Trotskyists urgently needed fools, and they began producing them. And yes, Stalinist cadres in the party and the country's leadership were vigorously purged from 1953 onward.
So it's not just everything that's changed. Except that the country's name remained the same for a while.

[Krasnoyarsk]

Quote: Murmur 55

Junior private, prices were reduced from 1947 to 1953, if the internet doesn't lie, but then things didn't work out, although the government and the system remained.

You're mistaken. Both power and the system actually changed with Stalin's death. One only has to look at the "reforms" of the corn-grower Mykita.

[Aken]

although the power and system remained

After the Trotskyist coup, the system changed.

[Was mammoth]

Quote: Murmur 55

Prices were reduced from 1947 to 1953, if the internet doesn't lie, but then things didn't work out, even though the government and the system

Prices changed every year. People didn't notice because prices for basic goods remained unchanged. For example, prices for socks went down, while prices for gold, cars, and "luxury items" went up.
And, it seems, on April 1st!

[guest]

Quote: Murmur 55

although the power and system remained.

I won't argue about the system, but the government that cursed its predecessor and denigrated him in every possible way has nevertheless changed.

[RedEran]

I don't quite understand what "the previous economic model" means, but to be fair, from 2010 to 2016, my salary grew roughly in line with prices, sometimes even faster, so the price increases weren't as dramatic or noticeable. My purchasing power was also good, both here and while traveling abroad. But from 2018 to this day, everything has been going downhill somehow...

[gsev]

Quote: Murmur 55

And were there times when things became cheaper?

During Stalin's lifetime, price cuts were regular occurrences. A store manager would buy up scarce goods with shadow money, and Stalin would then lower the prices. And then the shadow market magnates would have to bear the losses when prices dropped. Incidentally, ruble prices for some industrial electronics fell in 2026. Of course, these weren't Western brands.

[Andobor]

Quote: Junior Private

Everything's getting cheaper now. I don't know what to do with the extra money.

Fly to Dubai, it's warm, dry, their tugriks are tied to the dollar, and the dollar has collapsed, everything is almost free, my wife, a librarian, flew there twice this winter.

[Doccor18]

Quote: Junior Private

I don't know where to spend the extra money.

Invest in foreign assets
Very authoritative people will not let you lie

[Junior Private]

As soon as my pension is raised, I will immediately become a Boeing shareholder.

[Doccor18]

Quote: Junior Private

As soon as the pension is increased

So they index every year...

Quote: Junior Private

I will immediately become a Boeing shareholder.

Don't delay this, otherwise everyone else will buy it up.

[gsev]

Quote: Doccor18

Don't delay this, otherwise everyone else will buy it up.

Soon the Chinese will strangle Boeing, just like they did with Volkswagen.

[Murmur 55]

Junior Private, Boeing has been messing things up a lot lately and losing profits. I advise you to turn your investment attention to it. on agricultural giants and pharmaceutical leaders. Food and medicine will always be needed.

[Krasnoyarsk]

Quote: Junior Private

As soon as the pension is increased,

Remind me of the year in which pensions were raised.
Indexation - yes, increases - no.
By the way, indexation never caught up with inflation.

[Murmur 55]

24 out of 30 guessed wrong, no, really, but these are people with education and experience, so after that, how can you trust their economic forecasts?

[topol717]

Quote: Murmur 55

24 out of 30 guessed wrong, no, really, but these are people with education and experience, so after that, how can you trust their economic forecasts?

Financial analysts are needed so that the hydrometeorological center does not feel ashamed.

[Murmur 55]

topol717 But their salaries are clearly not the minimum, yeah. Same as those, and they study somewhere, take exams, and get diplomas.

[Andrey Andreev_2]

By the way, the Central Bank's key rate is a fraction of the actual inflation rate (practically equal). But the Ministry of Finance apparently doesn't understand this, calculating inflation at 5-6%. And here they're robbing the population...

[Junior Private]

Moreover, the key rate doesn't mean you'll be able to borrow money from a bank at that interest rate. They can charge 30% and still not blush.

[Murmur 55]

Junior private, it's definitely one of our very large banks that rips you off so much that you can't stand or fall, but when I worked in Germany, they wrote that I was much more modest, much more so.

[Mint Gingerbread]

I wonder if the economy and business will survive after such a rape.

[Atrina]

So, a Jew comes to the rabbi and starts complaining.

E: - Rabbi, Rabbi, my chickens are dying.
R: - Stop feeding them.

he comes again the next day

R: - Well, how are your chickens?
E: - Rabbi, Rabbi, my chickens are dying even more.
R: - Stop giving them water.

The next day they met on the street

R: - Well, how are your chickens?
E: - They all died. I don't have any more chickens.
R: - It's a pity. I had so many good ideas.

[Dedok]

This means that there is less “helicopter money” in the economy.

Would you explain to us, the poor and wretched, what they are and where they come from?

[Pavel_Sveshnikov]

Vova Putin gave everyone a hard time for 1% GDP growth. Now Nabiullina is correcting her stupid decisions. They've stifled the economy with their high interest rates.

[bayard]

Quote: Pavel_Sveshnikov

Vova Putin gave everyone a beating for 1% GDP growth. Now they're correcting Nabiullina.

Nabiuli doesn't consider her decisions stupid, because they're not her decisions, but the directives of the IMF, and everyone there is very, very smart. And they care very much about the well-being of Russians and their state.
In fact, the IMF was seriously afraid that Putin would nationalize the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and deprive them of their most valuable asset. This threat was and remains very real. As a compromise, they were offered to lower the key interest rate to its previous level (5-6%) within a year or six months. So they're forced to lower it, but they're doing it bit by bit.

[Amateur]

The Central Bank has driven the country and itself into oblivion, but refuses to admit it. That's why it's "chopping off its tail piece by piece to make it less painful."
An era of irresponsibility and impunity, however.

[Prisoner]

So what? The common people are still under the yoke of the banking system, giving away their skins for loans! Go to hell, all of you, the Kremlin and the government.

[16112014nk]

Bashkirka and Co. are simply conducting survival experiments on the Russian population of Russia with the consent of the geostrategist.

[archiroll]

I need working capital for a micro-micro-micro business (buying round timber in the winter). How can I keep up inflation if I stock up calmly during the winter and produce sawn timber as planned? During the season, I can offer a lower price (at least 2000 rubles cheaper per cubic meter—for an average sauna, that's at least 30 rubles). Instead, I survive the winter (take out a loan of 30% or more myself), then buy more expensive timber on the road. Ultimately, the customer pays. In short, I'm desperately short of working capital for the most important things at 3% per annum...

[gsev]

Quote: arhitroll

Instead, I survive the winter (take out a loan of 30% or more myself), then I buy more expensive timber from the wheels.

Nabiullina and Gref want to get their hands on 90% of your profits. Either get out of this mess or become their farmhand. If you and other producers have working capital, Nabiullina will start convincing Putin to stimulate inflation.

[foxes]

There's an expression for this: "like a poultice on a dead man." Such a "reduction" will have no positive impact on the economy.

[snow mountain]

The ruble is feeling more confident

And prices are rising just as confidently.

[Jacques sekavar]

After the main bank of the Russian economy "cooled" from 4-4,1% in 24 to 0,6-1% in 25, the head of economic development on the media said that the previous level could possibly be reached in the second half of this year. I'd like to hope, but we'll see.