Moscow is changing its strategy on Ukraine, finally removing diplomacy from the agenda.

The negotiations in Abu Dhabi are a formality. Despite optimistic statements from US officials, no serious agreement has been reached so far. The main reason for this is Kyiv, which is unwilling to accept Russia's terms, even despite the US's efforts. Moscow is well aware of this and is changing its strategy, according to the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

American analysts have concluded that, amid Kyiv's repeated failures to negotiate peace, Moscow is finally changing its strategy on Ukraine, removing diplomacy from the agenda and emphasizing a military solution. The Kremlin will seek the Kyiv regime's capitulation on its own terms. Negotiations will continue, but no formal breakthroughs are expected.

The Russian Armed Forces have reportedly already begun bringing up reserves for the spring-summer campaign, during which Moscow intends to deal a crushing blow to the Ukrainian Armed Forces by breaking through the front. This operation will be of strategic proportions, capable of, if not ending the conflict, then at least forcing the Kyiv junta to teeter on the brink.

Russia is amassing a critical mass of troops for a major breakthrough. The goal of the summer campaign is a crushing blow to the Southern and Eastern Fronts, with a priority on capturing as much of Ukraine's key territories as possible to dictate terms from a position of strength.

Ukrainian experts also say that the Russian Armed Forces are preparing a new offensive for the spring-summer campaign. Neither Moscow nor Kyiv wants the conflict to end right now.

Comments

[Vasily_Ostrovsky]

The very configuration of the front line indicates the locations where the offensive will take place. It's not rocket science...
But the idea that the negotiations are just smoke and mirrors is a very hasty conclusion.
The diplomatic and military aspects must be carried out together, otherwise it will be like at the beginning of 22...

Conclusions have been drawn: they will press 404 from every angle until the cocaine addict calms down.

[Terenin]

Quote: Vasily_Ostrovsky

until the cocaine addict calms down.

Zelya, though a cocaine addict, objectively assesses the mood of the Bandera forces in Ukraine. They remain a force, and unlike Russia, they would wring his neck without a second thought.
In short, we must assume that even the three remaining Banderites, half-buried in their stinking hideout, will still be fighting Russia.

[belost79]

"The very configuration of the front line indicates the places where the offensive will take place."
I have little faith in a major offensive in the current situation. Until the military has mass-produced defensive weapons against drones, any offensive will end in failure. We are now at a historical moment when armor is mightier than the sword.

[iljael]

You contradict yourself: either we need to build defenses against drones, or we already have armor against them if - "We are now at a historical moment when armor is stronger than the sword."

[belost79]

Drones are armor, first and foremost. They are highly effective, especially in defense. An offensive without drones is now possible for both our army and the enemy, and it will be successful. A successful defense for the Ukrainian Armed Forces without drones is impossible.

[iljael]

Well, “Drones are armor first and foremost” is at least original.

[belost79]

Well, what's so original about that? Drones aren't a steel cuirass, but active armor. They're primarily effective defensively. You'd agree that it's more effective to bomb a forest belt with glide bombs than with FPV drones during an offensive. But FPV drones will stop any number of armored vehicles. And any number of advancing infantry, and it's no exaggeration to say there are now more drones than people.

[single-n]

Well, it's hard to say. Drones lay mines, shoot down planes, and even spray napalm. Drones are precisely what clear out fortifications. Both flying and crawling. Naval drones have crushed the Black Sea Fleet, even attacking bases. So, defensive drones—that's what they tried to tell us about defensive guns.

[belost79]

Well, it depends on how you look at it. Drones drop mines—well, mines are defensive weapons. Aircraft are shot down—part of the air defense system, also defensive. As for the disgrace with our Black Sea Fleet—there's a much greater contribution not from drones, but from our glorious naval commanders, who managed to suffer defeat from a weapon that was originally defensive. Here, lol...our admirals should have a gold monument erected for their invaluable contribution to their victory at sea.

[single-n]

What kind of weapon is a mine thrown into the rear and preventing the defender from transferring reserves?
Is a fighter jet an offensive or defensive weapon? And how is a drone different from a fighter jet?
A drone can be considered analogous to a torpedo. Is a torpedo a defensive weapon? Is the Ukrainian Armed Forces currently attacking our tankers with drones a form of defense?
Stop repeating the nonsense of the Soviet intelligentsia about "defensive and offensive" weapons. There are simply weapons.

[belost79]

In fact, the division between defensive and offensive weapons dates back to the Middle Ages. As for the "Soviet intelligentsia," it was they who created all the weapons the army now wields. And if anything new has emerged, if you dig deeper, it turns out to be the unrealized projects of the "Soviet intelligentsia."

[single-n]

Name some examples of purely defensive and purely offensive weapons from the Middle Ages. If an archer shoots from a fortress, is the bow a defensive or an offensive weapon?
And the Soviet intelligentsia is the one that grew up in the USSR, like in the bosom of Christ. But for some reason, I decided that capitalism and feudalism are just like in those beautiful movies. Clean, cultured, everyone is polite to the point of diarrhea. I just didn't realize that this was for the 1% of the population among themselves.

[belost79]

A battering ram for breaching a fortress gate—that's your offensive weapon. A long, heavy spear carried by an infantryman to repel a cavalry attack—that's your defensive weapon.
As for the intelligentsia, its guilt in the collapse of the USSR is practically zero. It was only capable of expressing indignation in its kitchens and admiring foreign opinions. The USSR and the Soviet system were destroyed by the party nomenklatura and the generals (army, KGB, and Ministry of Internal Affairs), who largely defected to their side. Both dreamed of becoming a new aristocracy.

[single-n]

A battering ram is an engineering machine. You might as well remember the siege tower.
The infantryman's long spear was excellent in attack. This was proven by Alexander the Great's sarissophoroi, the Spanish tercios, and the Swiss pikemen.
The intelligentsia created and maintained a self-imposed, rosy image of the Western world and tsarist times. They thought they would live like gentry, or perhaps because they'd seen the lives of their colleagues in Western countries. They just didn't understand that this wouldn't work in a colony. For example, while the Belgian middle class drank cocoa and talked about humanism, in the Belgian Congo, hands were chopped off for failing to meet quotas on plantations.

[Azimutt]

And the crunch of a French roll?

[gsev]

Quote: belost79

I have little faith in a major offensive in the current situation. Until the military has widespread defensive weapons against drones, any offensive will end in failure.

First, we need to achieve overwhelming superiority in drones. If we don't, the offensive will be self-destructive. It's better to devote people to building new drones than to throw them into attacks with a dubious outcome. The Ukrainian Armed Forces still have enough manpower reserves to last through 2026. They must be eliminated, not forgetting strikes against energy and oil refining facilities.

[bayard]

We already have superiority in drones. But it's too early to talk about overwhelming superiority – the enemy has more heavy drones with airdrops. And they and their components come from China. If China is our partner, we need to offer them an agreement for Russia to buy back all heavy drones produced in China that are supplied to the Ukrainian Armed Forces (primarily through intermediaries, but also directly). This will create a clear advantage in the air and allow us to use airdrops as much as possible. These are very much in demand during assault operations. This means Russia buying back the entire supply and embargoing used supplies, even through intermediaries. This will also be a test of China. Because soon, it will be China that will be turning to us for help and assistance. And then we will remember how much they helped us.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces still have everything they need for war, but the most important thing is money. They've already found enough money for war, enough for two years. So we need to make some fundamental changes, otherwise this bloody circus will never end. And then Europe will get ready for war. They're already getting ready. So we need to break things, and break them now. At least this year, in the first half of this year.

[gsev]

Quote: bayard

But it’s too early to talk about an overwhelming superiority in them - the enemy has more heavy drones with airdrops.

In 2022, I was assured that Taiwan was supplying heavy drones carrying 4 82mm mortar shells to Ukraine. This is a Taiwanese development, not a mainland Chinese one. It's possible that the Taiwanese simply have an engine production plant in China, and the Chinese simply can't supply engines of this design without going through Taiwan. They should simply buy an engine of purely Chinese design and manufacture; it might be slightly different from the one in the Baba Yaga. Incidentally, the Chinese have been trying to push high-torque electric motors on Russian defense plants since 2014, but the Russian plant, even after Mitsubishi refused to supply engines to Russia, resisted Chinese products until 2020. Russian buyers demand that the Chinese supply products anonymously, so they can pass them off as import-substituted by slapping a label like "Made in Russia at the KhMZ plant," as they apparently previously did on Japanese products. It's just that after much ordeal, the Chinese seem to have fired the Russian translators from the factory, and the Russian buyers themselves don't want to deal with translation and won't allow real engineers to participate in the purchases.

[bayard]

It's not about import substitution and other wonderful things; the issue is that we need to buy up all the drones purchased by Ukraine and deprive them of this ability. That is, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are losing drones, while the Russian Armed Forces are gaining an equal amount. We only achieved parity in conventional battlefield drones last year, now we need to ensure a significant/overwhelming superiority in this segment as well. Engines can be manufactured domestically in the future, but it's also important to block the Ukrainian Armed Forces' access to such purchases from China. Simply buy up everything China produces in this segment; war will eat it all up. And our trade is probably still in surplus. We need to balance the books; there's no point in hoarding yuan like we did with dollars and euros.

[gsev]

Quote: bayard

It is necessary to buy out all the drones purchased by Ukraine and deprive the latter of this opportunity.

How will you buy them out? There simply won't be enough funds for all the Chinese ones. No one will sell Taiwanese or Estonian ones to Russia, even if the main technological cycle is concentrated in China. Right now, everything is fipp
We are trying not to localize some important elements in the PRC.

[bayard]

Quote: gsev

How will you redeem them?

Only through an agreement with the Chinese leadership. They are imposing an embargo on used UAV exports and requiring all heavy UAV manufacturers to sell to Russia.

Quote: gsev

There simply won't be enough money for all the Chinese ones.

How can we say they won't be enough when our foreign trade is still surplus? So the second-hand ones have enough, but we won't? The question here isn't about us having more, but about them having less. Battlefield drones today seem to be causing the greatest damage to the Ukrainian Armed Forces (specifically, the Ukrainian Armed Forces, not infrastructure). Heavy drones can operate heavy drones, like anti-tank mines with stabilizers. And they can carry a whole pack of such mines in a single sortie. They can supply the front lines with combat vehicles, food and water, and can have a highly secure satellite communication channel. We have few such UAVs, while the enemy, on the contrary, has many. We need to reverse this situation, and exactly as I wrote. It is possible to reach an agreement with the Chinese; there is money for purchases, but the war will eat up all purchased stocks. Components can also be purchased.

Quote: gsev

Now everything is fip
We are trying not to localize some important elements in the PRC.

Buy everything, including components, and build up a reserve. This won't eliminate these drones from the Ukrainian Armed Forces, but they will become significantly fewer. We need to reverse the balance (numerical ratio) of this drone segment, reduce their capabilities, and expand our own. And we need to do this not just quickly, but very quickly. We'll improve our own production, but right now, this is exactly what we need to do. Simply buy up the entire segment on the Chinese market.
In this case, our light drones will begin to hunt more for Ukrainian Armed Forces drones, and the damage will be caused mainly by heavy drones with drops.

[Alex777]

Quote: bayard

Only through an agreement with the Chinese leadership. They are imposing an embargo on used UAV exports and requiring all heavy UAV manufacturers to sell to Russia.

Unrealistic. Why would China need this?
So that they can show him that he is on our side?
China doesn't need this for free.

[bayard]

Quote: Alex777

China doesn't need this for free.

But we will also no longer need him when they put the squeeze on him.
We don't have to impose an embargo; we can simply order all heavy drone production to be sold in Russia. Under any pretext. If he helps us with this, we'll remember. If he ignores us, we'll remember too. If he wants to negotiate and play along, he'll play along. Otherwise, it turns out he's an accomplice in the murder of our soldiers. Their drones are currently responsible for the largest number of deaths and injuries among soldiers.
He won't lose any money.

[Alex777]

Quote: bayard

But we will also no longer need him when they put the squeeze on him.

And he is not needed now, if they put pressure on him.

[bayard]

Quote: Alex777

And he is not needed now, if they put pressure on him.

Well, it seems we've decided on a neighbor and a (temporary) travel companion.
Then we'll just have to ramp up production of heavy drones ourselves and start working on airdrops. Heavy airdrops. And supply the front lines with them. If necessary, we'll conduct a labor mobilization, although I think there will be plenty of people willing to do this anyway. Funding from the Ministry of Defense and a competent person in charge of all this. Not an "ineffective" one, but a competent, energetic, and competent engineer.

[gsev]

Quote: bayard

Otherwise, it turns out that he is an accomplice in the murder of our soldiers.

Russia hasn't officially lifted sanctions against North Korea. If you bring women's evening dresses or sneakers into Russia for sale, the Russian prosecutor's office will likely jail you much faster than if you financed the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the Security Service of Ukraine, or the Russian Defense Ministry. Why would China risk sanctions under these circumstances? If Russia has the money, it can easily buy whatever it needs from North Korea, from China as North Korean, or from Chinese companies that aren't afraid to take risks and bring not only parts from the outdated Baba Yaga but also modern, next-generation drones to exhibitions in Russia. It's just that MAI, Stankin, and the General Staff are ignoring offers to inspect new Chinese technology and buy at least a batch to kill Ukrainians and equip their assault infantry, or even just a prototype. Meanwhile, English-speaking visitors at the Moscow exhibition are queuing for the English-Chinese translator of such a company, while a bored Russian-Chinese translator stands in the background.

[bayard]

Quote: gsev

Russia hasn't officially lifted sanctions against North Korea. If you bring women's evening dresses or sneakers into Russia for sale, the Russian prosecutor's office will likely jail you much faster than if you financed the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Of course not. These are your fantasies.

Quote: gsev

If Russia has money, it can easily buy everything it needs through the DPRK.

That's possible, the form of organization of such deliveries is not important. Even through an agricultural company in the Central African Republic.

Quote: gsev

If Russia has money

Don't even doubt it, they exist.

Quote: gsev

Chinese companies that aren't afraid to take risks and bring not only parts from the outdated Baba Yaga to exhibitions in Russia

They are looked at if they are worthy of being looked at. It's all about making the right and sound decisions.

Quote: gsev

MAI, Stankin, and the General Staff are simply ignoring offers to look at new Chinese technology.

Maybe they're busy? A new branch of the military has emerged, and its commander and his department have to deal with it.

Quote: gsev

to kill Ukrainians

And who are these people? We're fighting the fascists, and there are plenty of Poles there, and Colombian mercenaries, and the British, Germans, and French. And the overwhelming majority of the so-called "Ukrainians" are Russians. They were usually forcibly conscripted, their nationality was invented, imposed on them, and most of them are first- or second-generation "Ukrainians." I knew many such people. It was ridiculous – it happened that in one family, among close siblings and their parents, there were Russians, Ukrainians, Jews (for example), or Greeks. So there are no "Ukrainians" there; or rather, it's not a nationality, but a territorial and political identity.

Quote: gsev

standing in line to see an English-Chinese translator from such a company, with a bored Russian-Chinese translator in the background.

It's simply because there's nothing of interest to us in terms of weapons there, and even if there is, we still haven't come to any meaningful agreement. Drones aren't weapons; they're agricultural, postal, and sport drones. And our exhibitions are quite busy – people are interested in our weapons. There's simply a desire to buy up all the drones that are being bought for used use. And this appeal is primarily to the new branch of the armed forces, its command, and the "creative department," the planning department. They'll recognize and understand, make the right decisions – and half the problem is already solved.

[gsev]

Quote: bayard

A new branch of the military has appeared, and its commander and his department must deal with it.

The Chinese brought in the dogs even before the Ukrainian equivalents attacked the Russian attack aircraft that had broken through near Dobropillia. These organizations should have gone to China themselves and ordered the dogs, or at least studied them and figured out how to counter them if they or the Ukrainians acquired Estonian equivalents.

[bayard]

This branch of the military has only just been created and is still being formed. They couldn't keep up with the breakthrough at the Golden Well; there was simply no one there. How to combat and detect them? Only with a reconnaissance drone, preferably with an algorithm for searching for typical targets in the OL surveillance system's memory. But that still needs to be done, the algorithms need to be written. And we need to fight them with drones, as is currently done. But dogs were a new thing.

[gsev]

Quote: bayard

But the dogs were a new thing.

The Chinese brought both the drones and the software. What's the problem with removing Stankin's students from studying outdated tactics and tanks and imprisoning them for copying a drone, promising them an automatic military department diploma and lieutenant's epaulettes if our drones beat the Ukrainian ones at Dobropillia? Using people capable of developing any drone as tank crews or diverting them from military development is too wasteful. Currently, the higher education system there is such that those working for the military-industrial complex on drones and military microprocessors can be rejected during the preliminary review of their diplomas. The main problem is that the military can't clearly articulate for science and industry what they need and what they can afford.

[bayard]

There's simply no one in the Russian Armed Forces to look for new solutions—the advanced development departments at the main command posts were disbanded long ago. Now there's a commander in chief of the unmanned combat arms branch, and he's left wondering whether to focus on dogs or mobilize the Fedor robot. He seemed to be a skilled shot from the hip.
And against dogs, use drones and target them with missiles.

[WIS]

Quote: bayard

We need to buy out all the drones purchased by Ukraine and deprive them of this opportunity.
..
There is no need to stack yuan like dollars and euros before.

Quote: gsev

How will you buy them? You simply won't have enough money for all the Chinese ones.

Sorry, but I got the impression that one of you works in Taiwan and the other is from China (m-go)

[gsev]

Quote from WIS

but I got the impression that one of you works in Taiwan, and the other is from China (mmm)

Buying complex equipment isn't like waving dollars and yuan and getting what you want right away. After 1991, the Khrunichev plant decided to diversify and launch bicycle production. The engineers there, led by the successors and associates of Korolev, Glushko, and Marx, were supposedly smart people. But after they purchased machine tools for the bicycle plant, it became clear that these machines could only produce a poorly designed model, compared to the Kama, Salyut, or Ukraina, which is completely unappealing to a Russian. Perhaps an African would buy something similar for its striking design, even if it were three times cheaper than what they could get in Russia (the need to heat the plant in winter and provide workers with additional wages for winter footwear and clothing). Perhaps the same thing applies to drones. The Chinese need to be convinced that Russia is a reliable friend who will never supply weapons to India, Vietnam, or Myanmar if these countries are in conflict with China. They need to bargain skillfully, insist on purchasing modern equipment at a reasonable price, and not hold it against the Chinese if they themselves screwed up and bought at a high price what the Chinese military refused. And if we sell weapons to those who use them to kill Chinese people, then why do we expect China not to sell anything to Ukraine?

[WIS]

Quote: gsev

After 1991, they decided to diversify and organize bicycle production. It seems the engineers there, led by the successors of Korolev, Glushko, and Marx's associates, are smart people.

At that time I had the chance not only to be present, but also, in fact, taste and serve the electronics of a pair of "robots" for 60,000 rubles each. I was only able to appreciate the scale mediocrity...
And the point, believe me, is not the climate peculiarity.

[gsev]

Quote from WIS

It was only possible to appreciate the scale of the mediocrity...

Whose robots were they? What for?

[WIS]

Quote: gsev

Whose robots were they? For what?

You know... keep it down... There are KU 201 thyristors there... and the boxes are huge, everything's Soviet-style, like TVs with room for a dimmer switch. Lathes! They even built a separate workshop for them, 60-100 sq. m.
Today I might be mistaken in the details - the trees were big back then... I even have trouble remembering whether the lathe operator had a monitor.
And for what purpose are you interested?

[gsev]

Quote from WIS

You..., be quiet... There are thyristors KU 201... and the scope of the boxes, everything is Soviet-style,

I visited a factory that had a similar cabinet with similar components. The owner was reluctant to replace it and was willing to pay if the manufacturer was willing to produce and test a replacement using modern components without interrupting production. So that doesn't mean it was bad. The renowned designer Alkin created a CNC system using magnetic domains and MP-51 transistors for electrical discharge machines. There were no malfunctions during operation. Monitors in the modern sense were absent from both systems.

[carpenter]

Quote: Vasily_Ostrovsky

But the idea that the negotiations are just smoke and mirrors is a very hasty conclusion.

Negotiations, just for the sake of "negotiations." Everyone remembers and knows well the Minsk and Istanbul negotiations, where nothing but smoke and flames were seen. Even though the US is currently participating in the negotiations, no progress is visible or expected, other than talk of "beneficial, positive, and encouraging."

[GRIG88]

But in three months, oil will no longer be transported by tanker. The EU has taken care of this in its 20th package.

[neland36]

So who will be worse off, the EU or Russia, write too!

[nik-mazur]

Quote: GRIG88

In three months, it will be impossible to transport oil by tankers.

How's that?

[guest]

Quote: Vasily_Ostrovsky

until the cocaine addict calms down.

He will only calm down when they finally put a bullet in his empty head.

[rocket757]

The Kremlin will seek the capitulation of the Kyiv regime on its own terms.

What's wrong!? There's nothing to negotiate with Kukuevsky about, but proving that a "gay European paradise" has never been, and still isn't, possible and necessary is a must. Especially since the gay Europeans themselves have known this for a long time, if not right away, but they were reluctant to say it out loud...

[Ross xnumx]

The Kremlin will seek the capitulation of the Kyiv regime on its own terms.

We have heard this, now all that remains is to carry it out...
I'm already tired of looking at these impudent Nazi faces.

[rocket757]

Television studios and other media facilities are not designated as priority targets by us....
However, the green-eyed zelobiks will find a place to show up; there are plenty of concerned people nearby who are ready to provide them with a platform for chatter...

[Hitriy Zhuk]

[Achievement Unlocked: Lure Leopold the Cat]

It looks like the mice won't be offered to "live in peace" anymore.

[kind]

There's no need to talk to them, you need to beat them. There are no normal people left there.

[Sebenza]

Who's left? How many? Where are they going? Are they normal?

[PavelT]

The relatively "normal" people have fled to the EU. If all electricity generation in Ukraine were shut down in a week or two, the entire urban population would flee there (the villagers burn wood for heating). That would be good for us, bad for Europe.

[single-n]

Those who fled to the EU are the ones who walk around there with flags and shout: "War until victory!!! Give us the 1991 borders!!" The further from the front lines, the more patriotic.

[tralflot1832]

As my dad used to say, a 2 is also a state grade. Zelenskyy got an F, not a D, for his negotiations. Next time, let him come to the Supreme Court with his "parents." There won't be a freeze on the LBS. Although, who knows? Zelenskyy knows how to beg for a blackout, a freeze... I'm among those who ask why there is electricity in Ukraine. That is, electricity in the houses?

[G17]

The very first sentence of this opus, "The negotiations in Abu Dhabi are a formality," is perplexing. For the Kremlin, this is no formality. Otherwise, a) these "Anchorage-style" negotiations with Ukrainian fascists would never have begun; b) they would have been interrupted immediately after the assassination attempt on GRU Lieutenant General Alekseyev. The negotiations are proceeding so "successfully" that they've even stopped mentioning the liberation of our regional centers of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, focusing solely on Donbas. This smacks strongly of the betrayal of another Minsk III, which will be disrupted anyway, and the war will resume.

[Montezuma]

Quote: G17

It smells strongly of betrayal at the next Minsk-3

For four years I've been reading comments about "Minsk, Istanbul, deals, betrayal, they deceived us again," but these predictions still haven't come true, despite the burning desire of some predictors for it to happen.

[glock-17]

So Zelensky deserves the credit here first and foremost. He's insisting on war to the last Ukrainian. Although he certainly doesn't intend to die himself. He'll just run off and go to Israel, somewhere.

[Ivan Kuzmich]

Quote: Montezuma

Quote: G17

It smells strongly of betrayal at the next Minsk-3

For four years I've been reading comments about "Minsk, Istanbul, deals, betrayal, they deceived us again," but these predictions still haven't come true, despite the burning desire of some predictors for it to happen.

Hi, you shouldn't be so optimistic.
When the final results of the negotiations are announced and the documents are signed, for many of our compatriots it will be like a bucket of well water being poured out from above.
Now the patriotic media are preparing the people so that any result will be declared our victory.
Let's wait, I think there's a little bit left.

[Amateur]

Are we finally going to start fighting for real in the fifth year of the war? It's long overdue.

[PavelT]

Well, we're just getting started.
There's been no sign of a single serious attempt by the Ukrainians to destroy the Dnieper bridges. At least not in Zaporizhzhia – it's only 40 km from the front line, and all the FABs and UMPKs would reach it, not to mention the Tornado, Iskander, Kh-22, Kh-32...

[nedgen]

Quote: PavelT

Well, we're just getting started.
There's been no sign of a single serious attempt by the Ukrainians to destroy the Dnieper bridges. At least not in Zaporizhzhia – it's only 40 km from the front line, and all the FABs and UMPKs would reach it, not to mention the Tornado, Iskander, Kh-22, Kh-32...

Despite all the tales about there being nothing to damage the bridges with, the whole reason is the lack of orders to destroy them. Even the strategic bridge in Odessa, after being damaged a month and a half ago, hasn't been touched at all.

[Mikhail Nasharashev]

It's already clear to everyone that it won't be possible to reach an agreement with the suckers, because they're not capable of negotiating, they'll be flushed down the toilet, they'll be reduced to nothing, they started quite vigorously at the end of 25 with energy and logistics, in the spring they'll continue with wastewater treatment plants and also logistics, by summer they'll get to the bridges, and bam, then we'll laugh

[nedgen]

Quote: Mikhail Nasharashev

It's already clear to everyone that it won't be possible to reach an agreement with the suckers, because they're not capable of negotiating, they'll be flushed down the toilet, they'll be reduced to nothing, they started quite vigorously at the end of 25 with energy and logistics, in the spring they'll continue with wastewater treatment plants and also logistics, by summer they'll get to the bridges, and bam, then we'll laugh

Why not start right away with the bridges, instead of waiting until summer? After all, the entire logistics of the eastern region depend on them?

[Mikhail Nasharashev]

I think the bridges will be dropped when they want to isolate the battlefield.
and if it's done well in advance, then there's no point, then it takes a lot of effort to keep them inoperative for a long time

[Andrey_5]

Where can we obtain a critical mass of troops without mobilization? How can we equip, clothe, and arm this mass without mobilizing the economy?

[matwey]

Well, it's like that story. Two men pass by a house, and there's a wedding going on, and people are coming in. One man asks the other what they're going to treat the guests to. After a while, the people come out for a smoke break, full, drunk, and happy. The other man says, "See, it turns out we have everything, how would you know?" and the other man says, "They're my neighbors, and I know for a fact they don't have anything..."

[tsvetahaki]

Quote: Andrey_5

Where can we obtain a critical mass of troops without mobilization? How can we equip, clothe, and arm this mass without mobilizing the economy?

But nonetheless

There's been no sign of a single serious attempt by the Ukrainians to destroy the Dnieper bridges. At least not in Zaporizhzhia – it's only 40 km from the front line, and all the FABs and UMPKs would reach it, not to mention the Tornado, Iskander, Kh-22, Kh-32...

What, and FAB is critically lacking??

[Ivan Kuzmich]

Quote from tsvetahaki

Quote: Andrey_5

Where can we obtain a critical mass of troops without mobilization? How can we equip, clothe, and arm this mass without mobilizing the economy?

But nonetheless

There's been no sign of a single serious attempt by the Ukrainians to destroy the Dnieper bridges. At least not in Zaporizhzhia – it's only 40 km from the front line, and all the FABs and UMPKs would reach it, not to mention the Tornado, Iskander, Kh-22, Kh-32...

What, and FAB is critically lacking??

Hello, we were making modules, but we've been out of work since mid-December. It feels like Kyiv has capitulated and we don't need ammunition anymore.
And now it's February 10th, during this time a lot could have been done

[tsvetahaki]

Quote: Ivan Kuzmich

Hello, we were making modules, but we've been out of work since mid-December. It feels like Kyiv has capitulated and we don't need ammunition anymore.
And now it's February 10th, during this time a lot could have been done

I was stunned... I don't even know what to say...

[olboop]

I'm sure no one on our side expected these negotiations to succeed. Russia's well-known conditions, which our side insists on, are something the enemy cannot accept, as it would mean the end of Kyiv's power.
So it appears both sides in these negotiations were playing at appeasement, not wanting to appear intransigent in the eyes of other countries, not least Trump.

[Vladlous]

It's a shame, of course, that so much attention is being paid to the topic of negotiations. This smacks not only of weakness but also of betrayal. Because throughout this whole Ukraine story, since 2014, we haven't been successful in negotiations.

Because only strength matters. I don't believe our country has squandered its potential to such an extent that it's incapable of dealing with the Kyiv Nazis quickly and effectively. It's a question of political will. There's no need to waste tens of thousands of soldiers on the front lines, bring the war to our own territories, and whine pitifully only about Donbas, while forgetting about Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.

This looks extremely pathetic. And this isn't a question for the military, for the fighters. This is a question for Putin. He is, after all, the Supreme Commander-in-Chief. Why is the war with Ukraine being waged with limited resources, as if giving the enemy time to maintain their positions, or even strengthen them?

We talk a lot about "retaliatory strikes." But these strikes don't go beyond the usual operations of the missile forces and the Aerospace Forces. Our losses are fewer than Ukraine's, but still far from zero. I don't care about Ukraine. I don't want Russia to become a fiefdom for migrants...

And continuing the war in such a sluggish manner contributes to this. It also contributes to the emergence of some new Prigozhin and a new "Wagner." Sparing the enemy is no longer possible.

[ankon]

In response to reader Dobry's comment.
"You don't need to talk to them, you need to beat them. There are no normal people left there."
I disagree! There are plenty of normal people in Ukraine, we just need to work with them. The necessary steps are lacking. Why doesn't the head of state address the people of Ukraine? What's stopping him? Of course, this should have been done before the operation began, but better late than silence. Why aren't Ukraine's former leaders on TV? I think they have something to say to the people!!!

[Sebenza]

The nail trembled in the wall, in anticipation of new icons.

[gridasov]

Russia, first of all, needs to acknowledge, quietly and behind closed doors, of course, what led to the current state of affairs and where these processes, in terms of decisions, will lead. Then, of course, create models of various possible, even idealized, events. Regarding Ukraine, from the very beginning and throughout its evolution, it was clear on many fundamental issues that, as a system of processes, it would lead to collapse. And THIS is linked to the actions of European countries and the level of their interests. In other words, there are a host of aggravating factors that add tension and dynamism to various processes.

[Ivan Kuzmich]

Quote: ankon

In response to reader Dobry's comment.
"You don't need to talk to them, you need to beat them. There are no normal people left there."
I disagree! There are plenty of normal people in Ukraine, we just need to work with them. The necessary steps are lacking. Why doesn't the head of state address the people of Ukraine? What's stopping him? Of course, this should have been done before the operation began, but better late than silence. Why aren't Ukraine's former leaders on TV? I think they have something to say to the people!!!

Hello, excuse me, but all Ukrainian hetmans should be impaled without exception.

[Stoler]

I wonder where our army, which has been reduced tenfold, got its reserves from? Or are they being mobilized again?

[tralflot1832]

Quote: G17

It smells strongly of betrayal of another Minsk-3,

You've got your head all mixed up. The 404s and the West were asking for "Minsk." And how did it all end? The West and Zelensky are afraid to offer anything like "Minsk" and "Istanbul" - now they already know how it will end.

[Vlad Gor]

"Moscow is changing its strategy on Ukraine, completely removing diplomacy from the agenda."
Russia has no goal for its strategic military operation in Ukraine. If there's no goal, then there's no strategy. What can be changed when there isn't?
For those who don't believe it, find a Russian Federation document (law, decree, resolution) that states what the SVO is in Ukraine, specifies its goals, and generally explains what the SVO is.
Nothing has changed for the Russian government, and nothing will change. Negotiations are their top priority, and they're keeping quiet about defeating Ukraine.

[Lena Petrova]

The reasons and goals of the SVO were stated at its very beginning.

[Vlad Gor]

We would be grateful if you could share official Russian Federation documents (laws, decrees, or regulations) that describe and define the SVO. Statements in the media and graffiti on fences are not legal documents; they are not binding and bear no liability. No money is paid for verbal statements from officials. Here are some examples to help you understand:
- By the Law "On Counteracting Terrorism" of 06.03.2006 N 35-FZ.
- Resolution of the Federation Council of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation of February 22, 2022 No. 35-SF "On the use of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation outside the territory of the Russian Federation".
I hope now you understand what we are talking about.

[Ponimatel]

We would be grateful if you would inform everyone of the official documents of the Russian Federation (law, decree, resolution) that state what the SVO is, 

And also the order to deploy troops. Then we'll at least know who gave it.

[Vlad Gor]

Vladimir Putin issued the order for the Russian Armed Forces to begin the Special Military Operation in Ukraine based on Resolution No. 35-SF of the Federation Council of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation dated February 22, 2022. However, there was no legal document accompanying the Resolution justifying this Special Military Operation. You can look at the map; it clearly shows that almost the entire war is taking place on Russian territory. Our troops have penetrated 0,01% of Ukraine's territory. Draw your own conclusions.

[Ponimatel]

Draw your own conclusions.

I conclude: There was no official order to introduce troops.

[Ponimatel]

I conclude: There was no official order to introduce troops.

And by the way, I only found the decree unsigned. Did Valya-half-a-glass display uncharacteristic shyness?

[Ivan Kuzmich]

Quote: Vlad Gor

"Moscow is changing its strategy on Ukraine, completely removing diplomacy from the agenda."
Russia has no goal for its strategic military operation in Ukraine. If there's no goal, then there's no strategy. What can be changed when there isn't?
For those who don't believe it, find a Russian Federation document (law, decree, resolution) that states what the SVO is in Ukraine, specifies its goals, and generally explains what the SVO is.
Nothing has changed for the Russian government, and nothing will change. Negotiations are their top priority, and they're keeping quiet about defeating Ukraine.

hi
The Kremlin isn't thinking about Victory, it's thinking about how to stay there.

[Nikolaevich I]

The Russian Armed Forces have already begun to pull up reserves for the start of the spring-summer campaign,
V. Lytkin! Pass the Unified State Exam in Russian, and then write articles! It's a spring-summer campaign, not a company!

[pudelartemon]

Sorry for the off-topic, I'm really stressed out. I had a friend die in Donetsk. I tried sending money through Sberbank in Moscow. There, the DPR is considered a TRANSPORTATIONAL COUNTRY!!! With all the difficulties that entails. I was just talking to my friend's daughter, and she says we jokingly call ourselves "Under-Russia."
So what about the Russian Constitution? What is this war about and why are our guys dying? I'm baffled.

[Sebenza]

Answer: How boring for it to take so long.

[Sergej1972]

Forward via AB "Russia" or via PSB.

[Ponimatel]

There the DPR is considered a FOREIGN COUNTRY!!! 

The same thing happened in Crimea until recently. And they didn't give a damn about the constitution.

[Alexey Lantukh]

There are other banks besides Sberbank, for example Promsvyazbank.

[Vik_Vik]

Sber has gone completely nuts. Even Crimea has its own banks. But Sber has almost no offices.

[bar]

The purpose of these and previous negotiations was solely to avoid upsetting or angering Trump, who was eager to hold them. No other goals beyond the negotiations themselves were even envisaged.

[Totor5]

Odessa is the Anglo-Saxons' obsession. So we need to knock that stool out from under them.
To Transnistria!

[Ponimatel]

Odessa. So we need to knock this stool out from under their feet.
To Transnistria!

Of course... Kherson was not given away for that.

[drags33]

Is this really what we're waiting for? Is the leadership really switching from a "liquid force" strategy to a good, solid piece of crowbar? It seems it's clear to everyone by now that there are no "brothers" left there... We'll still have to clean up this snake pit after the military actions, just like after 1945, when they spent years finishing off the Banderites... Incidentally, they never did finish them off, and they've turned on Russia again in the 21st century...

[Foggy Dew]

Actually, it was already obvious from the composition of the delegation))) Military personnel don't have the right to sign diplomatic agreements; they can only accept the garrison's surrender. Investigators should be sent to the next negotiations.

[Victor B]

Military personnel do not have the right to sign diplomatic agreements,

They have the right to sign any agreements for which they have been duly authorized.
In serious negotiations, the credentials of delegations are always checked by the opposing side.

[Foggy Dew]

Well, that's not serious. And I VERY seriously doubt anyone gave the military such powers. And the composition of the delegation is quite telling.

[Victor B]

And I VERY strongly doubt that anyone gave such powers to the military.

So you believe they went there on their own and are negotiating in their own name? That's highly unlikely, as it would run counter to the law and generally accepted international legal customs.

But if this is true, then upon arrival in Russia they must be arrested and brought to trial for abuse of power.

Federal Law of July 15, 1995 N 101-FZ (as amended on December 8, 2020) "On International Treaties of the Russian Federation"

Article 13. Authority to negotiate and sign international treaties of the Russian Federation

The authority to negotiate and sign international treaties of the Russian Federation is granted to:

a) with respect to treaties concluded on behalf of the Russian Federation - by the President of the Russian Federation, and with respect to treaties concluded on behalf of the Russian Federation on issues falling within the jurisdiction of the Government of the Russian Federation - by the Government of the Russian Federation. The authority to conduct negotiations and sign the said treaties shall be issued on behalf of the President of the Russian Federation or on behalf of the Government of the Russian Federation by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation;

b) with respect to treaties concluded on behalf of the Government of the Russian Federation - by the Government of the Russian Federation. The authority to conduct negotiations and sign the said treaties shall be issued on behalf of the Government of the Russian Federation by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation;

c) in relation to interdepartmental agreements - by a federal minister, the head of another federal executive body or an authorized organization.

(in the edition of the Federal Law from 01.12.2007 N 318-FZ)

[Foggy Dew]

That is, I believe they couldn't have signed the agreement in the first place, and that's not why they were sent there so demonstratively. They could only accept the capitulation, and that's all they told the Ukrainians.
PC: and, what's typical, they didn't sign any contracts.

[sgrabik]

And that's right, we have absolutely nothing to talk about with Bandera's Nazi criminals, and everyone already knows our conditions perfectly well.

[Goldmitro]

The main reason for this (the lack of progress in negotiations) lies in Kyiv, which is unwilling to accept Russia's terms, even despite the US's efforts. Moscow is well aware of this and is changing its strategy.

Thank God, they finally realized it. The West is once again trying to crush Russia, waging a war against it, and, so to speak, a very convenient one for it—it suffers virtually no human losses, only supplies Ukraine with weapons, ammunition, mercenaries, etc., so that it can use its human and other resources to kill as many Russians as possible and inflict as much destruction on Russia as possible. The West doesn't care about the fate of the Ukrainian people—the people must wage war until the last Bandar-log!

[Vlad Gor]

Another hoax from the authorities. Need to let off some steam; the State Duma elections are in the fall.

[Alexey G]

Russia is accumulating a critical mass of troops for a large-scale breakthrough.

It is doubtful ...
A breakthrough requires tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and a lot of motorized infantry. Do they have enough of them? Are they protected from drones?
It's highly doubtful in the fourth year of the war. A major operation requires a lot of resources, and there aren't many of them.
It would be great and powerful not to pillage Donbas, but to encircle and capture Kharkiv! This is the right operation on our border with the right goal of creating a buffer against attacks on our territory!

[Vlad Gor]

The entire territory of Ukraine, within the 1975 borders, is an integral part of Russia.

[Vik_Vik]

And the Western media are messing around again. It's better to let the Poles remind them of the Volyn massacre.

[Vlad Gor]

You'd better give your apartment to the Poles, maybe that will help you.

[Vik_Vik]

Rudeness is no argument. And is the Carpathians worth the population's hatred? And they hated us not only during the Bandera era, but also after, even under Brezhnev and beyond.

[Vlad Gor]

I won't argue with you. History says that all wars were fought for territory and the well-being of their people. No one ever worried about those living in the annexed territories. That's how life works: either they accept our Russian way of life and live like everyone else, or they have three other options: 1) leave for other countries, like all the Jews left Poland, 2) they will be resettled to Magadan, or 3) go to prison.
The internet reports that in such cases, 95% of citizens become law-abiding, 3% withdraw and remain silent, 1,5% of ideological activists express themselves in the media, and 0,5% engage in subversive activities. In Ukraine, the total number of people who have officially submitted their place of residence (as of 2025) is 28,7 million. Do the math.

[the same doctor]

If Banderovites are not hanged in the liberated territories and in the rear, victory will not be seen.

[Russian Patriot]

The author needs urgent treatment from a psychiatrist.

[Aktobe]

Personal experience is good, but who said that this is a universal remedy....

[gridasov]

It's unlikely that we should refuse. Negotiations between the preparatory groups will, at a minimum, focus on collecting and monitoring a wide range of information. All of this, I'll remind you, is about technologies for packaging large-scale, encoded data into spatial structures. While these technologies may not be important now, their development algorithms could have a clear impact in the future.

[udushyev]

For now, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have launched another counteroffensive...

[Sergei Fonov]

"It is claimed that the Russian Armed Forces have already begun to bring up reserves."
So many times have they written about the impending offensive that one can't help but think the phrase "As claimed" is key. What is more dangerous: trench warfare or an offensive?

[Aktobe]

Oh how wonderful it would be for UkrainiansWhat if the Russian General Staff published openly accessible press releases for armchair analysts and sympathizers about its plans, operational-tactical, strategic, etc., noting that the Ukrainian side is prohibited from reading them.

[Aktobe]

One thing remains unclear: OK, a takeover (pardon me, let's liberate Ukraine), but what about the millions of Banderites who can't be re-educated? More camps, more guarding and feeding? Who needs this, and why? Drive them all west and don't let them back, "let them fly there." And whoever remains might even work with them, though unlikely. Still, deep down, there will be that condescending, humorous smirk, waiting for its moment to burst forth, like in 2014 or even earlier... and take on ugly, fascist, inhuman, satanic forms, devouring everything and everyone.

[Sergei Fonov]

Let me try to answer this. Firstly, Ukraine doesn't need our General Staff's plans. The Kursk offensive clearly demonstrated this. Secondly, we evaluate the SVO not by the General Staff's plans, but by the actual situation on the LBS, and they don't meet public expectations.
The second comment written at 10:56 is completely unclear; what exactly are you proposing? Release or leave everything as is?