Do Indian gods like the number 3?
"Avoid matters that depend on others; strive only for what depends on yourself."
An old Indian proverb
An old Indian proverb
Oddly enough, this Indian proverb is directly relevant to what's happening in the Russian-Indian arena. And a lot is happening there.
Indian company Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) signed a memorandum of understanding with UAC for the production of the SJ-100 regional jet, designed for nearly 100 passengers, in India. aviation The UAC giant also signed an agreement to supply six Il-114-300 aircraft to the Indian company Flamingo Aerospace.
That's not bad, but a memorandum isn't a firm contract. It's like a dialogue: "Will you sell it to us if we want to buy it?" "Yes, we will," but nothing more. Especially since, as always, we're not talking about buying 100 aircraft, but about licensed production, something everyone in India is passionate about.
But all this is civilian, while our review is military, so we're more interested in the Indian dances around Russian weapons. And here, too, it's interesting, since the Indians are starting to show interest in the Su-57, which is understandable: after snatching the Rafale from the Chinese and Pakistani MiG-21s in a new package, something really needs to be done!
India's aircraft situation, to put it mildly, smells like rancid curry, and nothing can replace it. The Rafale deal was a complete failure, especially since the French have completely ruined all of India's plans for domestic assembly. The Americans won't even sell the Texan II on India's terms, let alone more advanced aircraft. But they'll sell Pakistan everything China has, from the MiG-21/JF-17 to the J-35 and beyond. And all India has is the Su-30MKI. The JF-17 is more than enough to counter the J-35, but I'm not so sure about the J-35. It could end up like the Rafale.
A truly new frontier is needed, and the Su-57, a fifth-generation aircraft with the world's most extensive combat experience despite a relatively small production run, could very well provide that. Russia and India currently cooperate closely on air defense systems such as the S-400 and missiles BrahMos, which is a world-class military product. But both BrahMos and the S-400 are a thing of the past, no matter how you look at it.
India is a developing economic powerhouse that, let's not rule it out, could soon become the world's third-largest economy, the country with the largest population, and one of the largest markets. It's not without its challenges, including two nuclear-armed neighbors. weapons.
It should be noted that, although historically all conflicts on the Indo-Pakistani border have been unleashed by Pakistan, this does India some credit, but does not relieve the Indian armed forces of the obligation to be prepared to repel any attacks.
As India continues to reduce its dependence on Russian weapons, while simultaneously reducing its military effectiveness, it makes sense to think about new horizons, as India and Russia still have the potential for close cooperation in the field of arms, especially in missiles and aviation.
Yes, Russia can provide the technology, and India can create a manufacturing hub using its relatively skilled local workforce, software, private sector resources, financing, and best business practices.
It is true that one cannot be sure about business practices, because, despite their presence in India, the Indian-made T-72 is considerably more expensive than the Russian one. tank, and we won’t even mention the Su-30MKI in comparison with the Su-30SM, because we simply don’t understand where such a cost comes from.
More precisely, there is understanding, there is no evidence, but we don’t really need it; after all, these are Indian problems.
Many experts in India say production could be carried out for Russia and India, as well as other countries around the world. Incidentally, this poses a rather unpleasant issue for us, which we'll discuss below.
Let's look back history.
Relations between India and the Soviet Union, and now Russia, have been time-tested since India's independence in 1947.
In 1951, the USSR exercised its veto over the Kashmir dispute in support of India. The Soviet Union declared its neutrality during the 1959 border conflict and the Sino-Indian War of October 1962, despite China's strong objections.
The Soviet Union provided India with significant economic and military aid, and by 1960, India received more aid from the USSR than China. This, of course, led to a shift in relations, and China began to distance itself from the USSR.
In 1962, the Soviet Union agreed to transfer MiG-21 jet fighter production technology to India, a request previously denied to China. The Soviet Union helped India build factories to produce aircraft, engines, and avionics, ultimately resulting in the production of 800 aircraft for the Indian Air Force.
In 1965, the Soviet Union mediated peace talks between India and Pakistan after the war. India's relations with the Soviet Union developed strategically, and in 1971, the Indo-Soviet Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation was signed.
During the Indo-Pakistani War of 1971 for the liberation of Bangladesh, the Soviet Union supported India despite pressure from the United States and China.
During the Cold War, India and the USSR maintained a "special and privileged strategic partnership" built on five pillars: politics, defense, civil nuclear energy, counter-terrorism cooperation, and space.
Even after the collapse of the Soviet Union, India maintained warm relations with Russia's successor state. India is one of the largest markets for the Russian defense industry. Today, approximately 60% of India's military equipment is manufactured in Russia. Military equipment supplies and, more recently, the establishment of joint ventures have become key areas of cooperation.
But in the 1960s, the "Make in India" program began. The Soviet Union was the first to support the "Make in India" program in defense production. MiG-21 production plants, opened in the early 60s, later produced the MiG-27 (170 units) and Su-30MKI (230 units). The Su-30MKI was a joint research and development project.
Since 2004, 222 Su-30 MKIs have been produced under license at the HAL Nashik plant. Approximately 920 AL-31FP turbofan engines have been manufactured at the HAL Koraput plant.
In 1965, with Soviet assistance, the Heavy Vehicles Plant (HVPP) was established in Avadi, Chennai. HVPP produced the Russian-designed T-72 Ajun and T-90 Bhishma tanks.
In September 1965, the Soviet Union and India signed their first contract for the supply of naval equipment, including four Project 641 diesel-electric submarines, five Project 159E corvettes, and five Project 368P motorboats. The agreement also provided for Soviet technical assistance in the construction of a submarine naval base in Visakhapatnam.
Russia recently built two frigates, INS Tushil and INS Tamala, at the Yantar shipyard, and two more frigates are being built at the Goa Shipyard Ltd (GSL) in India using technology transferred from Russia.
By 2027, GSL will also build 24 river-sea cargo vessels for Russian customers in the Caspian Sea. Collaboration with India in shipbuilding is beneficial for Russia, as the cost per vessel is projected to be half that of Russian shipbuilders.
And joint projects shouldn't be forgotten. BrahMos Aerospace is a joint venture between India's Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) and Russia's NPO Mashinostroyeniye.
Then there is the joint venture Indo-Russian Rifles Private Limited (IRRPL), which has secured a Rs 5,000 crore (approximately US$550 million) contract to supply over 610,000 AK-203 assault rifles to the Indian Army.
Indian companies hold a controlling stake of 50,5%, while Russian companies hold 49,5%. The level of local content has already reached 50% and continues to grow rapidly, with plans to reach 100% in the near future. How this will impact quality remains to be seen, but nonetheless, Kalashnikovs are inherently capable of forgiving even greater things.
But when it comes to aviation, it's worth remembering that some joint ventures never got off the ground. India withdrew from the joint fifth-generation fighter aircraft (FGFA) program, while Russia continued the project and today has the successful Su-57 fifth-generation fighter.
There was also the story of the Ka-226T, of which 197 units were to be produced, and in December 2015, an agreement was signed to create a joint venture between Rostec, Russian Helicopters and HAL to produce helicopters at a new plant in Tumakuru, India.
But India backed out of the agreement, deciding to develop its own light utility helicopter (LUH) based on the indigenous Dhruva. Naturally, the Indian LUH performed as well as the Tejas, but India still has a chance to buy the Ka-226T.
Similarly, the Indo-Russian programme to develop a new Multi-role Transport Aircraft (MTA) for both countries through a joint venture between Russia's UAC and India's HAL has been cancelled by India.
It is no secret that India has long been behaving like a capricious princess.
A Russian Su-57 fifth-generation fighter jet at Yelahanka Air Force Base in Bangalore on February 10, 2025.
China recently unveiled two sixth-generation fighters, plus more than 300 of the fifth-generation J-20 fighter have been produced, and more than 50 of the J-35. Pakistan has announced plans to purchase 40 J-35 stealth fighters from China. This could mean their entry into service around 2029. This scenario would change the entire dynamic of Asian air dominance.
What about India?
The Indian Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA), a fifth-generation multirole combat aircraft that has been so prominently featured in Indian media and which received Cabinet Committee on Security approval for prototype development in March 2024, is much the same as the Tejas. That is, it's dull and dreary. The stated timeframe is for entry into service in 2035, but given that there isn't even a fully developed prototype, it's safe to add another 10 years, which would be entirely feasible given the time it took to develop the Tejas and Arjun.
So, as expected, all this sparked a heated debate in India about its immediate plans and capabilities. The idea of a defense relying on Rafale and Su-30MKI aircraft against fifth-generation aircraft, even Chinese ones, was not well received by many.
The Su-57 is a highly maneuverable fighter, like most others in its family. It's a modern aircraft, equipped to meet all requirements, and most importantly, its equipment has been combat-tested with positive results.
The Su-57 can carry four R-37M missiles in two main internal weapons bays and two short-range R-74M missiles in side bays. For missions that do not require stealth, the Su-57 can carry munitions on six external hardpoints, including the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal hypersonic air-launched ballistic missile.
According to various sources, the Su-57 costs approximately $45 million per aircraft, which is significantly less than the Chinese J-20 and even less than the single-engine American F-35. The Su-57's lifecycle cost is believed to be comparable to the Su-27, Su-30, and Su-35, which it was designed to replace.
Under the agreement, Russia is prepared to disclose its entire fifth-generation ecosystem, including engines, sensors, stealth materials, avionics, advanced aircraft weapons that the West refused to provide to India, and other classified systems. But there are nuances.
Of course, India envisions full technology transfer and joint production in India. Considering that during the recent exhibition in Bangalore, Indian specialists were able to closely examine new Russian and American products and assess the strengths and weaknesses of both.
It was noted that Russian aircraft were simpler in design, with larger cockpits, more electromechanical rather than electronic systems, and a high degree of standardization and unification. Transferring from one Russian aircraft to another was much easier.
The Russian autopilot's leveling mode allowed the aircraft to level off with a single press of a button on the control column. This was convenient if the pilot became disoriented. Russian ejection seats were just as simple and reliable as Western ones.
Over the past two decades, India has sought alternative sources of military equipment in the United States, France, and Israel. This ended with the Rafale, a scandalous story, of course. But India inevitably returned to its time-tested strategic partner: Russia.
Most of the platforms purchased from Western countries were also acquired under terms that did not include the provision of technology.
Let's be honest: India has managed to improve the combat readiness of its armed forces solely thanks to the "Make in India" program and Russian deals/joint ventures. However, many foreign arms manufacturers, such as Lockheed Martin, Boeing, and General Electric, have launched numerous "Make in India" projects in recent years.
India plans to begin modernizing its Su-30 MKIs. Initially, this will affect 84 aircraft, but the entire fleet will be upgraded eventually. Sukhoi will also participate in the project to modernize the engine fly-by-wire control system and, eventually, replace the engines themselves. The West will be unable to assist in this regard.
The aircraft will also be modified to launch BrahMos-ER missiles. All of this will require significant support from Russia.
There have been reports that HAL and Russia are in talks to export Indian-made Su-30MKIs, with Russian support, to customers worldwide. As Russia seeks to circumvent US economic sanctions, more and more Russian companies are seeking to establish production facilities in India.
If India chooses the Su-57 for licensed production and close cooperation with Russia, it could transform the aerospace industries of both countries. India will receive fifth-generation stealth aircraft more quickly, strengthening the Indian Air Force's position and enabling the integration of indigenous avionics, weapons, and systems as part of the "Make in India" initiative.
And there is some indirect evidence to support this. One of these, in fact, has recently caused a lot of confusion.
We're talking about the "Product 177" engine, which has raised many questions. Indeed, with the much-anticipated "Product 30"/AL-51F1, a second engine suddenly, one might say unexpectedly, appears.
Yes, many people both here and in India were surprised to learn that, in addition to the long-awaited "Product 30," also known as the AL-51F1 for the Su-57, another product has appeared that belongs to the new generation of aircraft engines.
We once devoted considerable attention to "Product 30," openly criticizing the delays in its development, which took approximately eight years, with the engine only entering mass production in 2024. Meanwhile, just over a year passed from the first news of "Product 177" to its final release.
Many didn't even realize they were talking about different engines, confusing the "30" and "177" engines, mistaking them for the same thing. In fact, they are indeed different engines. The "177" was rushed into production precisely because the Indians, in the event of a Su-57 agreement, demanded a full technology transfer. And so the "177" appeared, compatible with both the Su-30MKI and the two-seat export version of the Su-57. It's logical that no one was going to transfer the AL-51F-1, a new engine with predicted excellent performance, to them.
But it's not like the "177" is junk; it's a compromise. Generally, it's common practice to install simplified equipment on export vehicles.
The Indians are desperately haggling. It's the usual thing. It's the peculiarities of national business. But on the sidelines of the Wings India air show, Mr. Shishir Patra (executive director of HAL's Sukhoi Engine division, which collaborates with Sukhoi specifically on aircraft engines) stated:
In the very near future, we will begin deploying a new production line for fifth-generation fighter engines. This is a joint project with Russia based on the "Product 177" engine, which we plan to use for the potential assembly of the Su-57, our own fifth-generation fighter project, the AMSA, and the global modernization of the Su-30MKI. Thanks to this superior engine, the upgraded Su-30MKI will gain some stealth features and non-afterburning supersonic performance.
Now this is interesting: the Su-30MKI is also being upgraded within the same program.
Interestingly, "Item 177" is an export product. This means it has lower thrust and other parameters slightly inferior to the AL-51F-1. This is as expected given the difference between the main engine and the export version. The fact that they exist in metal and are already being used on the Su-57 was demonstrated not long ago.
This will prevent domestic capacity from being diverted from production of the "177" for India, which will have to handle this themselves, while the AL-51F-1 will be used in the Su-57.
But the question remains regarding the Su-30SM2 and Su-35S. What engines will these aircraft be upgraded with?
However, this is a separate issue.
In our case, it remains to be noted that India was very successful with the MiG-21. The Su-30MKI was a breakthrough, establishing a stronghold for the country's Air Force. There's every chance of tripling that number with the Su-57. India understands this, too, and perhaps will be able to make the right decisions.
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