Rocket Riddles and Rocket Puzzles
Perhaps, no other type of weapon produced in Russia, like rocket, doesn't attract such close attention worldwide. I'd venture to say that some view it as "God forbid," while others, accordingly, view it as "God forbid." The former may harbor certain hopes for the acquisition of both products and technologies, which is logical, considering the USSR once peddled missile systems left and right, while the latter...
Europe is probably the most interested party here. Since they're planning a war with Russia, and it's now clear where that war will be—in Greenland, which, it turns out, we're just dreaming of capturing—then we have to understand that anything flying toward Ukraine today could fly tomorrow and end up as far as... Well, you can put any name you want, there's no way to miss.
That's why the latest cry from Ukraine about "We're in trouble again" sparks genuine interest in Europe. And, accordingly, commentary and analysis follow almost every significant missile attack. And the Americans usually follow suit, interested as well.
The massive rocket attack on Ukraine on the night of January 20th appears to have involved the use of several new or unusual types of weaponsVarious sources, both unofficial and official, point to the possible use of a new version of the Iskander short-range (or long-range) ballistic missile, as well as the rarely used Tsirkon hypersonic cruise missile.
Riddle #1: And it's not the S-300!
But perhaps the most interesting clue was the discovery of fragments of repurposed air defense missile targets as surface-to-surface weapons.
Essentially, this explains the numerous cries from the Ukrainian side about Russia constantly using S-300/S-400 missiles as surface-to-surface missiles. We've written about this nonsense many times, since any missile from these systems is pretty mediocre as a weapon for destroying ground targets. Sure, a steel cube from a warhead can penetrate the armor of an infantry fighting vehicle, but we were accused of destroying buildings... with hundreds of kilograms of explosives... Well, what can you expect from Ukrainians? The main thing is to shout loudly.
And you can’t explain to every one of them that in field conditions you won’t be able to pull out the cubes, and even if you do pull them out, you won’t be able to do it better, because the balance will be disturbed and all that.
A target missile is definitely an option. We make them here, and more than one plant does. But the Molniya Scientific Production Association (which is in Moscow and part of the Kalashnikov Concern) has been making such things for about thirty years.
For example, the Strizh-1-2A family of target missiles were manufactured using the decommissioned 5Ya25M and 5Ya24 surface-to-air missiles. But these missiles are ancient history; they were used in the Krug air defense missile system, which, incidentally, is still in service in some countries, such as Armenia and Turkmenistan.
Photo by NPO Molniya
Far more interesting are the target missiles based on the 5S25 missiles from the S-200 air defense system, as they inherently boast a longer range and a decent-sized warhead. If you remove the 37 submunitions, you'd end up with a high-explosive warhead weighing 220 kg, which is truly impressive. Not the half-ton of an Iskander, but still. Plus, a range of almost 500 km is quite impressive.
No one can say how many missiles from old anti-aircraft systems are sitting in Russian warehouses, but there's no doubt there are a lot of them. And converting these missiles into surface-to-surface missiles and then disposing of them behind the front lines isn't the worst possible task.
Especially if you ignore how Western media, following the Ukrainian media, parrot-like shouts about Russia using S-300/S-400 missiles to strike ground targets.
However, here, it's obvious they're judging primarily by themselves: if the US can use an aircraft carrier as a floating anti-aircraft gunship for two people, then Russia can afford to hit buildings with anti-aircraft missiles. The only question is whether we have enough missiles to strike ground targets, and the missiles Defense It is somehow accepted to use it for its intended purpose.
More concrete evidence has emerged that such a Russian missile was used on the night of January 20.
Western sources identified it as the RM-48U, which was developed as a target missile for training crews of the S-300 and S-400 air defense systems. The RM-48U is launched from the same launchers and is based on recycled 5V55 or 48N6 missiles, which are used in these systems after their service life has expired.
After another attack, debris with identification marks was discovered, which served as proof that it was an RM-48U.
According to the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine, this is the first time such a missile has struck Ukraine. Intelligence estimates indicate that Russia currently has approximately 400 such missiles in its arsenal.
It is currently unclear whether the target missile was equipped with a warhead, turning it into a real weapon for striking ground targets, or whether it was launched along with ballistic missiles as a decoy to complicate the work of Ukrainian air defenses.
For some "experts" like Kovalenko from Information Resistance, this is proof that "Russia is running out of missiles." This song was sung in 2022; it's 2026, and the missiles still haven't run out.
Riddle #2: A Surprise in Vinnytsia
On the night of January 20, a blackout occurred in Vinnytsia. Locals were quite surprised, as the city is located quite far from the front line and Russian troops haven't been particularly active there. Missiles hit the Air Force headquarters, and for a while, Geranium missiles pounded the Fort plant, which produces small arms. But precisely because the safe launch areas are located 700+ kilometers from Vinnytsia, the area remained relatively calm.
And then, on the night of January 20th, a third of the city was suddenly left without power. A major substation in the Right Bank part of the city was hit. The impact was felt a considerable distance away, and it was clear from the start that it wasn't a cruise missile, much less a UAVSocial media immediately reported that ballistic missiles had landed.
According to Ukrainian sources, Russia used an upgraded version of the Iskander to strike a target in the Vinnytsia region, located deep within Ukraine. Russian media also reported this.
According to Western sources, reports began appearing last year that Russia was ready to begin mass production of a new version of the Iskander IRBM with a longer range and improved accuracy. The original 9K720 solid-fuel ballistic missile, the 9M723 Iskander, has an official range of 500 kilometers, although there is evidence that it can fly even further. But not far enough to reach Vinnytsia.
The "Oreshnik" theory, as you can imagine, was immediately rejected because "Rubezhnik"... it seems to make a spectacle of its use, and its arrival is unmistakable. But here, something quietly flew in and destroyed the substation.
The new version, whose name is still unknown, is believed to have a range of at least 1000 kilometers, leading it to be unofficially called the "Iskander-1000." Ukrainian authorities also refer to the new weapon as the "Iskander-I."
Nevertheless, the stated range places the new missile in the category of medium-range ballistic missiles (hello, INF Treaty!). IRBMs are ballistic missiles with a maximum range of 1000 to 3000 kilometers, meaning a missile deployed somewhere in a quiet spot between Brest and Kobrin could easily reach Berlin, Munich, Copenhagen, and so on. And from a position near St. Petersburg, all of Scandinavia would be in for a real scare. And let's not even mention Kaliningrad; that would be enough to give all of Europe brain cancer.
According to available data, this is the only known photograph of the so-called Iskander-1000 taken during testing.
According to available information, the extended-range Iskander uses a more powerful and efficient engine, allowing for a longer range. Another way to achieve this is by reducing the warhead size, which frees up space for propellant. Accuracy is improved by a new navigation and guidance system. It is expected to include a new inertial guidance system, supplemented by GLONASS satellite navigation, and possibly a radar homing head for the terminal phase. This is claimed to provide an accuracy of 5-7 meters. Information about the warhead is unavailable.
Like the earlier Iskander, the Iskander-1000 will likely be able to perform high-G maneuvers in its terminal phase and use decoys to better evade air defenses.
Today, many in the West understand perfectly well that the termination of the INF Treaty frees Russia from all restrictions, including those regarding Iskander variants. Therefore, the Iskander-1000 will be important not only in the context of the conflict in Ukraine (since it can strike targets in the western part of the country), but also in the context of the confrontation with NATO in Europe.
The Iskander-1000, combined with the Oreshnik, effectively ensured "superiority over Soviet capabilities in the class of operational-tactical missiles that were once limited by the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty." This became a serious operational and political argument for Russia.
Riddle #3. A few words about Zircon, since we didn't start it.
According to another theory, the ballistic missile known as the Iskander-1000/Iskander-I was something else entirely. Not ballistic.
According to Ukrainian media, it was a Tsirkon, not an Iskander, that was launched toward Vinnytsia. It's possible that the Tsirkon was mistakenly identified as an Iskander-1000/Iskander-I, even though they are completely different weapons. The Iskander-1000/Iskander-I is a ballistic missile, while the Tsirkon is a hypersonic cruise missile with a ramjet engine. Such confusion would be puzzling, but it's still possible.
Ukrainian authorities claim Russia launched a Tsirkon hypersonic missile from Crimea. This is perfectly reasonable; they could have done it. But here's the problem: Western monitoring agencies are reporting the first confirmed use of a 3M22 missile from a ground-based launcher.
Our side, as always, is keeping quiet, but on the other side, several monitoring groups working with satellite reconnaissance data and other available sources have released information indicating that Russia now has the entire line of 3M22 Zircon hypersonic missiles in service: air-launched, surface-launched, land-based, and underwater. And all of them, except (uncertainly) the underwater version, have now been tested by fire.
It could easily have been used underwater. Who was really watching the entire Black Sea area? Considering that Varshavyanka missiles are perfectly capable of underwater launches, there's no need to say—they were used. They were tested back in 2021, from the Yasen.
But the first was the anti-ship Tsirkon, which was being tested from the Admiral Gorshkov. In April 2017, the ship launched the 3M22 for the first time, hitting a target 500 km from the launch site at a speed of Mach 7 to Mach 9 during flight. All tests were successful, and the missile was accepted into service. And apparently, someone else in the White Sea also fired a Tsirkon.
Aviation A version of the missile appeared later. It was called the Kh-99 and exists in two versions: for the Su-57 (shortened to fit the weapons bay) and for the Tu-160. The White Swan's dimensions were not reduced; according to some sources, the strategic version has a range of up to 4000 km, making it a strategic weapon.
Information has leaked out that the Su-57s had already used some missiles, but since not a single such missile was intercepted, there is nothing to refer to.
So, the emergence of a land-based Zircon is entirely logical. It's much easier and cheaper to transport a vehicle chassis to the launch site than an airplane or a submarine, everyone understands that.
Back in 2022, our NPO Mashinostroyeniye (Machine-Building) put out something about planning to adapt the chassis of Bastion missile systems for Tsirkon launches. It seems like it's not as complicated as it seems. Well, three years is a reasonable timeframe for a redesign. And even if they admit it's working, we won't argue.
Taken together, these missile developments indicate that Russia continues to diversify its weaponry (ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, jet-powered drones, piston-engine drones) and decoys when conducting large-scale attacks on Ukraine.
In the West, the use of repurposed target missiles is believed to indicate a general shortage of specially designed missiles and decoys.
However, for Ukraine, both new and old, the sheer number of missiles and drones entering its airspace almost every day means that its air defense system remains under significant pressure. And the targets hit daily indicate that Ukraine's air defense capabilities are limited and incapable of providing adequate resistance, let alone completely eliminating the threat.
You can report every day (as the Ukrainian Armed Forces do) on dozens and hundreds of destroyed missiles and drones, but the fact is that those that are not destroyed are hitting the country's infrastructure.
And we can talk a lot about how Russia doesn't have enough missiles, doesn't have enough decoys, and so on, but Ukraine is gradually entering an energy collapse and can't do anything about it.
And let's note that in Russia, despite everything, they are assembling new weapons "from washing machines and microwave ovens" that are not only modern, but also cutting-edge.
There's no point in dwelling on the Zircon's shortcomings; it's easier to talk about the advantages of the Dark Eagle Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon. But first, these advantages need to be discovered. Along with the missiles.
With ours, it's not exactly transparent, but they exist. And they fly. And there's nothing we can do about it.
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