Military Review

BRICS has not started yet, but in the West it has already been written off.

112
Not so long ago, VO talked about the new acronym MIST, which was invented by economist and market analyst Jim O'Neill from Goldman Sachs. To investors and those children who write geopolitical articles, was not boring, he gave the BRICS click to and brought to the economic and political world scene a new armchair creature of four letters. Of course, he took into account the fact that over the past year investors drowned away from funds BRICS 15 billion.


MIST is Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea and Turkey. O'Neill waved a BRICS handkerchief, that is, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (which is often excluded from the acronym; initially this country was not there) for a variety of reasons. Here you have the risks of authoritarian systems that give rise to political instability, raw materials dependence of Russia and Brazil, and a reduction in the population of Russia (according to Western forecasts, in the next 40 years it will shrink to 25 million people), and, finally, insufficient integration of BRIC into the world economy .

Another thing - Mexico and others like her.

The share of crude oil in exports from Mexico has decreased from 90% to 10%. In Indonesia, the chief economist at Goldman Sachs took the place of honor in the new “block” because ... it is rich in raw materials.

Turkey is good because its exports are 20%, and it has a high proportion of manufactured goods.

What is with South Korea is not entirely clear. Apparently, everything is good there. There was a German economic miracle, there was a Japanese, there was a South Korean - not as wonderful as the Japanese, but it was.

Economists - and even more famous economists - usually do not make unsubstantiated statements. Of course, the four countries named “united” not at the whim of O'Neill.

In February 2011, the company Goldman Sachs launched a project called the N-11 Equity Fund. His task was to invest in the economies of eleven developing countries, which include the four countries discussed above. From the beginning of 2012, the fund’s return made 12,0% versus 1,5% for a fund investing in four BRIC countries. Like this. 12 percent versus one and a half percent. And “political risks”, authoritarianism, dependence on raw materials, etc., which economists broadcast with an ironic smile, are true for “hamsters” from the Internet.

If we talk about the political consolidation of Indonesia, Turkey, Mexico and South Korea (as opposed to the BRICS countries), then the possibility of such raises “vague doubts”. However, the chief economist at Goldman Sachs, making his forecasts, hardly thinks about geopolitics. His first priority, whatever we think, is to reveal where the investments are “warmer”.

Let's take Turkey as an example. Western analysts count them.that this country every year becomes more attractive to investors. Years through 10-11 Turkey can become not only one of the factory centers of the planet, where tens of billions of dollars of direct investments flow, but also become one of the five countries leading in the world in the field of tourism (it is expected that it will visit 63 million per year tourists). In addition, Turkey has a favorable geographical position - Ankara can use its proximity to regional markets. Here you will find the Middle East, Central Asia, the Balkans, Russia, and a significant energy market. True, unemployment among young Turks is high - right up to 25%, according to last year's OECD data. But investors do not care about unemployment - they are interested in return. In addition, the more investment, the more new jobs.

Investors have every reason to expect an acceptable rate of return from MIST, writes Natalia Trushina (Bankir.Ru). As an argument, the author cites the opinion of Alexandra Tarannikova, a specialist at the Expert RA corporate and investment ratings department, according to which Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea and Turkey can be included in the same chain, since these countries have similar macroeconomic parameters. Here and low debt load (the ratio of gross public debt to GDP is on average at 33%), and the absence of a problem budget deficit, and high GDP growth rates (for the period from 2006 to 2011, on average, plus 38%), and a high ratio investment volume to GDP (on average, about 27%). These characteristics make these countries attractive for investments - especially in conditions when the annual GDP growth rates in developed countries do not exceed 1,5%, and their national debt is comparable to the GDP volume.

As for BRIC, then analysts at Standard and Purs consider it to be from the point of view of investment, now there is only one letter left - K.

Observers of Finmarket, having read their report, told that Standard & Poors is confident that the BRIC concept is outdated. The four countries that have nothing in common were previously tied only by high growth rates, and at the same time great hopes for the future of their economies. This connection turned out to be not very strong, and hopes for the future, apparently, are ephemeral.

Kai Stukenbrock, Sebastian Briozzo and Kim Eng Tan gave an answer to the question of whether there is any logic in uniting the four largest developing economies into the BRIC bloc. Their conclusions were pessimistic. From an economic and investment point of view, according to analysts at Standard & Poor's, the BRIC countries are no longer united.

Here are some of their arguments:

a) China shows high growth and stability;

b) Russia's growth has slowed down too much after the 2008 crisis of the year due to numerous structural problems that have not been resolved today;

c) the main outsider of the block is Brazil. This country does not want to sacrifice stability for the sake of rapid growth. What do investors need? - we ask a question from ourselves. That's right: fast growth and profit.

According to economists, the BRIC concept does not exist as such. Analysts at Standard & Poor's, in terms of economic growth, GDP per capita and external balances, speak of China plus three.

In terms of GDP per capita in the four countries - a very different dynamic. China is showing steady growth in GDP per capita, and by 2015, this figure will be 9 times higher than in 2001. But Russia, on the contrary, first showed a rapid growth of GDP per capita, which happened against the background of rapid growth in commodity prices. But in 2008-2009. oil prices began to fall, and GDP per capita in Russia fell by 25%. Now per capita GDP is growing again, but not as fast as before the crisis. Probably, China is about to overtake Russia by this indicator.

In terms of real GDP growth, the same. China is ahead of all the other "members" of the BRIC.

Russia, the analysts report said, which performed well before the 2008 crisis of the year, slowed down. Growth over the next few years will be slightly higher than 3%. Approximately the same situation in Brazil. The growth of India is similar to the growth of China, but we must remember that the population of India is growing much faster than the Chinese.

In public finance, BRIC has two leaders. Both China and Russia have a good position with a low level of public debt. But there are serious problems.

“Russia, with its raw materials economy, had a huge surplus of the current account, but it is gradually decreasing due to the growth of domestic consumption. Russia has a huge trade surplus in terms of minerals and fuel, but in all other categories, including industry, its trade is in deep deficit.

China is also in a surplus situation, but it is declining. China has a reverse export situation: a huge surplus in industrial goods, but at the same time dependent on imports of commodities. ”


If you carefully look at the excerpts from the report, it becomes clear: Western analysts are quietly playing the funeral march of Russia. The main theme of the march: "It's time for Russia to take up structural reforms."

The authors write that the Russian economy is extremely dependent on raw materials. Will commodity prices rise again as fast as they have grown in the past decade? If not, what will be the new source of growth for the Russian economy? The government, the report indicates, pursued a pro-cyclical fiscal policy, which in many ways was the basis of rapid economic growth. However, opportunities for fiscal stimulus are now significantly reduced.

In 2000-2008, government spending increased 10 times, and nominal GDP increased 8,5 times. The state’s ability to pursue a stimulating policy is limited, this is illustrated by the example of the 2013 budget of the year, where expenses grew by only 3%: these are record low growth rates.

The growth of investment in fixed assets of large companies in Russia in 2013 will be small. This is one of the main problems of Russia - investments do not grow as fast as they need. They do not meet the needs of them, analysts say.

“Another problem is structural reforms. Russia needs measures to improve the business climate and fight corruption. If these problems are solved, the growth of the Russian economy will be higher, perhaps, 5-6%. ”


However, other experts, writes Natalia Trushina (Bankir.Ru), they say: the fate of the new abbreviation "from the creator of BRIC" is unlikely to repeat the success of its first acronym.

Regardless of the consciousness of O'Neill, being put everything in its place. Jim protested against South Africa’s accession to the BRICs, but BRIC turned into BRICS. The summits of the top five are held on an annual basis. In 2015, the country hosting the partners will be Russia.

According to Rodion Lomivorotov, head of the macroeconomic research department of OTP Bank, the feature of the BRIC countries is not only their impressive economic growth rates, but their size and degree of influence on the global economy.

For example, the rapid industrialization of China led to a significant increase in demand for commodities. China forms about half of all demand in the global metal market.

From MIST, only Indonesia and, perhaps, Mexico will have a significant impact on the global economy in the future, and that will be subject to successful economic policies. South Korea and Turkey may show rapid economic growth, but they are not so great. True, the growth potential of these economies in these countries is high enough that investors value. And investments in Turkey were really the topic of last year.

The share of GDP in each of the MIST countries already exceeds 1% of the global (Turkey - 1,1%, Indonesia - 1,2%, Mexico - 1,6%, South Korea - 1,6%). None of these countries will be able to press China or India, but they will be able to catch up or overtake Russia and Brazil in terms of the size of their economies.

The General Director of the FBK Economics and Law School, Sergey Pyatenko, believes that each of the countries of the two “fours” has much more national interests than points of contact with other countries. Some export hydrocarbons, while others import, some sell weaponand others buy.

The European Union went to the union about 50-60 years. BRIC is only at the beginning of the path, and MIST has not even begun its path. Let's see what will happen in 10-20 years. In the meantime, the prospects for MIST as a group fully correspond to the meaning of this word in the English language - “fog”, the analyst sneers.

Observed and translated by Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
112 comments
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  1. Vladimirets
    Vladimirets 8 May 2013 08: 23
    16
    Great friendly guys: Oh, Neal from the finest Goldman Sachs and Standard & Poor analysts, they have never been involved in any behind-the-scenes games, do not work for supranational financial institutions, and therefore cannot lie. Rating agencies especially smile at me, and yet someone else believes them. They said BRIC Khan, then Khan. I will offer them another acronym: TICA (Tuvalu, Iceland, Central African Republic and Andorra).
    1. Engineer Schukin
      Engineer Schukin 8 May 2013 08: 55
      -3
      And you are in vain ironic. Russia itself pays Golden Sachs to improve Russia's investment image. Didn't you know that?

      In general, in order to have your own thoughts in your head, and not the principle of "opposite strangers", you yourself need to delve into and understand the issues.

      To determine the macroeconomic status of Russia, you need to refer to the data of Rosstat and the Ministry of Economic Development.

      And if you don’t spread the word for overposting, I’ll immediately cover some of the most important indicators of the Russian economy:
      A budget of 50 +% consists of _direct_ income from the export of raw materials and all 70-80% of the _ indirect_ income of this export. Those. direct petrodollars that merge through the budget - some of them return through taxes.
      The Russian budget (people's pocket) is fully dependent on hydrocarbon prices. This is an indisputable fact.

      The share of fuel and energy sector exports in the total export of the Russian Federation reaches almost 75% - do you understand what this means? Russia, in principle, produces nothing but the suction of its bowels.
      All she flaunts now is the global oil price environment.
      The whole irony of the situation is that the semi-literate pompous patriots are not even aware that everything the Russian Federation is proudly blowing cheeks for - for all this, she should kiss the legs of the United States, because it is thanks to their actions in the Middle East that the world oil price soared to the skies in the 00-10th.
      If the United States did not make a mess in Iraq, the price would have remained at the level of the calm 90s, which deprived the Russian Federation of its petrodollar rain.

      And no matter how ignorant and other empty-headed hat-hawkers are graphomaniac about "getting up from their knees," the Russian economy is a hydrocarbon puddle, the fate of which is in the hands of the United States, the EU and other geopolitical players.

      Any decline in oil prices - Russia is returning to its natural state - the 90s.
      1. Mart
        8 May 2013 09: 12
        +7
        Quote: Engineer Shchukin
        Russia itself pays Golden Sachs for improving Russia's investment image.

        It's true. This was mentioned in "Mosaic" (see the penultimate episode).
      2. Vladimirets
        Vladimirets 8 May 2013 09: 38
        +8
        Quote: Engineer Shchukin
        And you are in vain ironic.

        "Engineer" means education, but educated (read - educated) people do not poke strangers.
        Quote: Engineer Shchukin
        Russia itself pays Golden Sachs to improve Russia's investment image. Didn't you know that?

        Quote: Mart
        It's true. This was mentioned in "Mosaic" (see the penultimate episode).

        I am aware, but this does not change my attitude to Goldman Sachs, Morgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, or other similar financial Leviathans.
        Quote: Engineer Shchukin
        And if you don’t spread the word for overposting, I’ll immediately cover some of the most important indicators of the Russian economy:
        A budget of 50 +% consists of _direct_ income from the export of raw materials and all 70-80% of the _ indirect_ income of this export.

        It’s not necessary to spread, you need to throw a link to these numbers.
        Quote: Engineer Shchukin
        And no matter how ignorant and other empty-headed hat-hawkers are graphomaniac about "getting up from their knees," the Russian economy is a hydrocarbon puddle, the fate of which is in the hands of the United States, the EU and other geopolitical players.

        The conclusions are interesting, but made through the ass. Russia does not persuade anyone, for Christ’s sake, to buy its hydrocarbons, on the contrary, those who wish are in line to buy them. I don’t see anything shameful in this. Is the USA giving alms to Russia? Yeah, mercy and selflessness in their blood. The thing is that the world without our hydrocarbons cannot. Did the war in Iraq help us? I imagine what will happen if tomorrow the Russian Federation announces the cessation of hydrocarbon supplies abroad, I think the third world one.
        1. Mart
          8 May 2013 10: 24
          +3
          Quote: Vladimirets
          educated (read - educated) people do not poke strangers.

          Support.
          1. iliq
            iliq 8 May 2013 11: 34
            -7
            Quote: Mart
            Quote: Vladimirets
            educated (read - educated) people do not poke strangers.

            Support.

            in fact, educated people know the rules of network etiquette ...
            so ask yourself - how are things going with the education of the "teachers"?
        2. Kaa
          Kaa 8 May 2013 10: 54
          +6
          Quote: Vladimirets
          I imagine what will happen if tomorrow the Russian Federation announces the cessation of hydrocarbon supplies abroad, I think the third world one.
          "In 1973, Washington supported Israel, attacked by the troops of Syria and Egypt. In response, Arab countries completely banned oil exports to countries that supported Israel. In the US, gas prices rose 4 times! This is not only an economy, but a direct threat to internal political stability and the foundations of the political system. 1979, again, the political events that took place in the Middle East led to a sharp increase in oil prices from 13 to 34 US dollars per barrel.Before the first US-Iraq war (1993), the average price per barrel of oil fluctuated at $ 20-23. According to leading economic experts of that time, the US political leadership, in order to avoid a serious economic crisis, should have found ways to ensure a reduction in the price of a barrel of oil to $ 8-9. That is, at that time it was not about the liberation of Kuwait. In practice, the concept of protecting US national interests was implemented. Coalition forces, UN decisions - all this was nothing more than decorations for solving the main task - ensuring control over the oil fields of the Arabian Peninsula and creating favorable conditions for its own economy. However, the war led to the opposite result. After a short decline in oil prices, they began to rise again. The second Iraq war, it would seem, allowed the United States to gain direct access to the rich deposits of this country. But no collapse in oil prices has occurred. The main route for transporting Middle Eastern oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, partially controlled, as is known, by Iran (the strait accounts for about 40% of global oil export by sea).Alternative options for transporting oil to consumers - land pipelines to the ports of the Mediterranean Sea - pass through Syria.
          Two pipelines flow from Iraq through Syria, converging in Homs, now known to the whole world, and then they diverge into three Syrian ports: Tartus, Boniyas and Latakia. Taking into account the dependence of the American and European economies on Middle Eastern oil, it is obvious that a military campaign against Iran is impossible until the uninterrupted transportation of Middle Eastern oil is ensured in case of hostilities in the Persian Gulf.
          Given all of the above, it can be argued that the civil war in Syria was inspired by external forces to ensure control over the transit of oil from the Persian Gulf via land lines to Mediterranean ports, bypassing the Iranian controlled Hormuz Strait. Http://www.iarex.ru /articles/29209.html
        3. Averias
          Averias 8 May 2013 11: 14
          +3
          I support. I would like to add to whom and what, and most importantly, what Russia pays for, this is the legacy of our "great" rulers Plugavy, EBN and their entourage. Not about that now. Remember when the United States dropped its credit rating by 1 point (which is a lot). But it is definitely not without our participation.
      3. JonnyT
        JonnyT 8 May 2013 09: 41
        16
        I agree with you in many ways, but
        Quote: Engineer Shchukin
        for all this she must kiss the legs of the USA

        Though now go and kiss! Your right


        Quote: Engineer Shchukin
        And no matter how ignorant and other empty-headed hat-hawkers are graphomaniac about "getting up from their knees," the Russian economy is a hydrocarbon puddle, the fate of which is in the hands of the United States, the EU and other geopolitical players.

        The share of oil sales in the budget is about 30%, the share of gas is 12%, there are also metal, wood, chemistry ...... Yes, there is a dependency, but it is not critical. The EU economy is directly dependent on ours, so if the US and the EU collapse hydrocarbon prices (which is not easy to do), they will collapse their economy first of all! (Especially the EU !!!) And in times of crisis, this will greatly help Europe. Russia is the largest importer, so if our purchasing power decreases, Europe will suffer, who will buy their goods ??? Their domestic market is only declining! No money left!
        I doubt that Qatar will provide everyone, the production and logistics facilities are not the same ... until a steamer with gas reaches Europe, they all freeze there !!!

        The main resources for the European production base come from Russia. If you naively believe that Russia will donate all resources to Europe, then you are mistaken. A sharp drop in prices will lead to a reduction in supplies .... from which Europeans will make their goods ????

        Yes, addicted, yes, we are sitting on a resource needle, but the situation can always be corrected. It's just that the current government has no motivation to expand the range of exports .....
        The EU is not the host of Russia, it is its vassal !!!
        1. YuDDP
          YuDDP 8 May 2013 17: 36
          +1
          Quote: JonnyT
          The EU is not the host of Russia, it is its vassal !!!

          The West is a commodity appendage of Russia.
        2. Piran
          Piran 10 May 2013 00: 27
          0
          And then who is the master of Russia?
      4. mogus
        mogus 8 May 2013 09: 44
        +5
        world oil price in dollars. In dollars and get for it. And now the question is: if you do not sell resources for dollars, but for rubles, gold, yuan ... After all, consumption will not decrease — there simply is no substitute for oil / gas. Will the budget have the equivalent of another currency, so what?
        (commodity yield is not buzzing, but in the absence of another ...)
      5. Vladimir-35136
        Vladimir-35136 8 May 2013 09: 53
        +3
        And why not pay if the return will be. As for oil prices ... will you personally ride an electric car ??? and whether lithium is enough for mass production of batteries for a long time, well, there will be no demand for oil as fuel ... it will remain as raw material for plastics, therefore, the decline in oil prices can only be temporary and only artificial, well, if you do not consider the version of the end of the world ( then the main thing will be to chew ... but here the production of food from any suitable raw material including oil is growing and improving)
        1. dimon-media
          dimon-media 8 May 2013 11: 19
          +2
          To drive an electric car, you need to charge the batteries with electricity from the network. And in order to have electricity, do we need fuel oil, gas, or what else do TPPs and TPPs operate on there? Undoubtedly, there is a share of hydroelectric power stations in the production of electric power, and even less often nuclear power plants, I generally keep silent about windmills, we don’t have them and in general they are rare in the world, but this is a smaller part in the percentage ratio of electricity production. So without oil and gas, generated electricity from hydroelectric power stations and nuclear power plants, we only have enough so that the light from the house does not go out and then not everywhere. There will be nothing for him to charge the car. As they say, - there is no current, there will be no kin. smile
          PS Electric cars are not yet relevant. Internal combustion engines will not leave the market until the last barrel of oil is pumped out by the oilmen and the last cubic meter of natural gas is extracted by gas workers. To create something truly innovative in the field of long-term batteries, while there is no motivation. Hydrocarbon production is archa profitable business and neither the auto industry nor the oil producers will be in the loser. Neither power engineers nor manufacturers of internal combustion engines have a motivation to change anything. And the production of electric vehicles is still in its infancy, and until there are normal batteries for them, until a normal infrastructure for them is created, so that they are more autonomous and independent of sockets, - nothing will change. Personally, I will never change to an electric car. An electric car is not a car, but a big toy. She lacks only the remote control to control the sandbox. IMHO.
          1. igor.borov775
            igor.borov775 8 May 2013 17: 28
            +2
            As far as I remember, in 2015 in Europe a law on electric car vehicles enters, and all car companies are preparing for this
          2. YuDDP
            YuDDP 8 May 2013 17: 39
            +2
            Quote: dimon-media
            until the last barrel of oil is pumped out by the oil workers from the earth, and the last cubic meter of natural gas is extracted by the gas workers.

            In fact, hydrocarbons are renewed. This is confirmed. There are examples: old wells in Chechnya, which were considered empty, again produce oil.
      6. Son
        Son 8 May 2013 10: 08
        0
        We can add the reluctance of the Central Bank of Russia (without the permission of the FRS and other "respected" structures), to invest in the real sector of the economy at acceptable interest rates ...
      7. Nick
        Nick 8 May 2013 10: 15
        +5
        Quote: Engineer Shchukin
        And you are in vain ironic. Russia itself pays Golden Sachs to improve Russia's investment image. Didn't you know that?

        I would like to understand how reliable your sources are.
        Quote: Engineer Shchukin
        50 +% budget consists of _direct_ income from export of raw materials

        Yes, but this is only in the structure of the state budget, in the structure of GDP about 20%. It is incorrect to say, like some, that we are only sitting on an oil and gas needle. Moreover, it is incorrect to say that "... Russia, in principle, does not produce anything except sucking out its bowels ..."
        Quote: Engineer Shchukin

        The whole irony of the situation is that the semi-literate pompous patriots are not even aware that everything the Russian Federation is proudly blowing cheeks for - for all this, she should kiss the legs of the United States, because it is thanks to their actions in the Middle East that the world oil price soared to the skies in the 00-10th.

        Well, if you think in this vein, then China should "kiss your feet", and first of all. It was he who provided a significant increase in demand for energy and other raw materials over the past 20 years, and, consequently, the rise in oil and gas prices.
        Quote: Engineer Shchukin
        If the United States did not make a mess in Iraq, the price would have remained at the level of the calm 90s, which deprived the Russian Federation of its petrodollar rain.

        The price of oil in comparable prices is not much higher than the level of the nineties, since over the past 25 years the purchasing power of the dollar has decreased significantly. According to various estimates, the buck depreciated 3-7 times.

        Quote: Engineer Shchukin
        And no matter how ignorant and other empty-headed hat-hawkers are graphomaniac about "getting up from their knees," the Russian economy is a hydrocarbon puddle, the fate of which is in the hands of the United States, the EU and other geopolitical players.

        Any decline in oil prices - Russia is returning to its natural state - the 90s.

        Based on all of the above, these are your conclusions, sorry, bullshit. hi
      8. Kaa
        Kaa 8 May 2013 11: 04
        10
        Quote: Engineer Shchukin
        Russia, in principle, produces nothing but the suction of its bowels.
        Well, so you can agree to the fact that the United States does not produce anything except weapons, services, financial bubbles and FRS waste paper! Google to help us: "The structure of the US GDP:
        Agriculture 2% of GDP 2,7% of workers
        Industry 23% of GDP 24,8% of employees
        Services 75% of GDP 72,5% of employees (including managerial staff) http://www.globfin.ru/info/usa.htm
        And what is the service sector? You fill my tooth, and I’ll print you dollars laughing But if “wild uncivilized Russia collapses the hydrocarbon market”, it will be difficult to refuel the car, teeth will be untreated, dollars will be unprinted. Service industry USA, where are you ???!!!! belay
      9. Suhov
        Suhov 8 May 2013 13: 29
        +1
        Quote: Engineer Shchukin
        And no matter how ignorant and other empty-headed hat-hawsers do not graphomaniac about "getting up from your knees", the Russian economy is a hydrocarbon pool, the fate of which is in the hands of the United States, EU and other geopolitical players.

        With fate be careful, you can tear!
        laughing
      10. Фокус
        Фокус 8 May 2013 14: 10
        +2
        Quote: Engineer Shchukin
        Any decline in oil prices - Russia is returning to its natural state - the 90s.

        Gaidar thought in these "narrow-minded" categories. Russia in the 90s (the economic state) will never return. The key to the answer lies in the change in the external situation, the change in leadership, the accumulated capital, but most importantly, the generation has changed - the thinking of people and their attitude to their role in life has changed.
        1. iliq
          iliq 8 May 2013 14: 15
          -3
          Quote: Focus
          change of leadership, accumulated capital, but the most important thing has changed generation - changed the way people think and their attitude to their role in life.

          Are you talking about Abramovich and Co.? or GDP?
          1. Фокус
            Фокус 9 May 2013 23: 39
            -1
            Quote: iliq
            Are you talking about Abramovich and Co.? or GDP?

            I mean the "seven-boyars" and Putin is not Yeltsin for you.
            1. iliq
              iliq 12 May 2013 16: 54
              0
              so how is it better than a "simple" Russian?
      11. Suhov
        Suhov 8 May 2013 23: 02
        +2
        Quote: Engineer Shchukin
        The share of fuel and energy sector exports in the total export of the Russian Federation reaches almost 75% - do you understand what this means?

        Understand:
        If oil costs $ 20 per barrel, then Russia is a raw materials appendage of the West.
        And if 120, then The West is a commodity-producing appendage of Russia.
        laughing
    2. Kaa
      Kaa 8 May 2013 10: 42
      +4
      Quote: Vladimirets
      Rating agencies especially smile at me
      Well, and there is a lot to learn .- "In 2003, the young and energetic President of Russia Vladimir Putin, speaking before the Federal Assembly, promised by 2012 to double Russia's GDP. In those years, according to the IMF, the economic power of our country at purchasing power parity was estimated at 1 trillion 404 billion US dollars.The plans then seemed ambitious and practically impossible. And Russia was lagging behind the schedule, not wanting to support the aspirations of the guarantor of the Constitution. And then there is the crisis of 2008-2009, which turned into a fall. That seemed to be all. It’s not our fate to live in Portugal. At the end of 2011, the cash equivalent of goods and services issued by Russian enterprises was estimated at $ 2 trillion 373 billion instead of the promised 2 trillion 808 billion. From Bolotnaya Square there were screams of "shame" and "unfulfilled promises."
      And here, like a bolt from the blue - the statistics of the World Bank, which put the Russian economy higher than the German one! According to international expert ratings, Russia is now in the top five countries with 3 trillion 380 billion dollars, second only to the American colossus and three Asian tigers - Japan, India and China. At the same time, the IMF and the CIA give more restrained figures - 2.5 trillion and leave our country in 6th place. Who to believe? And how to explain the World Bank's love for our country?In all its reports, this international organization gives optimistic forecasts about the attitude of Russia. What is even worth the last publication, in which the forecast of GDP growth for 2013 is 3.4%, while domestic experts and the 2.5% figure are unreasonably overstated. It is possible that 3 trillion 380 billion arose as a result of an analysis of the shadow economy of Russia, which in the 90s and “zero” was and remains colossal. 80% of the rental housing market, illegal retail trade, fabricated economic reports of large businesses, the entire repair and decoration market, given to the hardworking Ravshanov and Dzhamshutov from East Asia - all this can not be reflected in the official GDP statistics. Perhaps the World Bank has much better information than the IMF and the CIA?
      But then why explain the minimal statistical discrepancies in other countries, famous for their departure of economies into the shadows? The same Greece, Sweden and Italy, about which many works have been written on this subject. In a word, there are so many more questions than answers. And, given that Russia ranked 133rd out of 174 countries in the ranking of countries with high corruption, it cannot be ruled out that the World Bank is especially ranked when compiling ratings reverent to our state. As a result, the president and his economic bloc have additional space for political maneuver. A trump card that can be reserved for better times. And the real place occupied by Russia in world rankings does not matter here. In the end, the IMF and the CIA can be safely recognized as biased organizations. At the same time, one cannot sin against the truth. And, therefore, it is not worth orienting the Russian electorate towards their calculations.http://www.noteru.com/post/view/1105
    3. cdrt
      cdrt 10 May 2013 11: 36
      0
      Unlike you, Goldman Sachs justified the abbreviation with similar indicators of investment :-)))
      What are you doing?
      In fact, when they write about these abbreviations, they forget how they appeared. And they make sense only when evaluating investment.
      What is the relationship between South Korea and Mexico? Competition in the American auto market?
      The same is the Russian Federation and Brazil: the only connection is competition among themselves in those industries in which countries are trying to develop export potential.
  2. svp67
    svp67 8 May 2013 08: 28
    +5
    Fighting is a struggle in all directions; we cannot relax more than possible.
    1. afire
      afire 8 May 2013 08: 42
      +3
      .... no way
      1. svp67
        svp67 8 May 2013 10: 40
        +2
        Quote: afire
        .... no way
        and that too ...
  3. vladsolo56
    vladsolo56 8 May 2013 08: 36
    +7
    "Experts" do not take into account one important detail, BRICS has a real potential for development, then that China is dominant, so that. In no Union has there been and will not be a completely equal development of all countries. Someone will always be ahead of someone outsider. If there is elementary mutual interest in the union, then it will develop. It's just that someone really wants to focus on the minuses in order to belittle the pluses.
    1. iliq
      iliq 8 May 2013 11: 38
      -3
      Quote: vladsolo56
      "Experts" do not take into account one important detail, BRICS has real potential for development

      and none of them will, at the expense of themselves, contact the Russian Federation. For example, why Brazil KAMAZ, if they do their VW?
      for whom will the Russian Federation get involved in BRICS? for no one ...
      draw your own conclusions.
      1. Фокус
        Фокус 8 May 2013 14: 39
        +4
        And here to harness or not. I think you do not understand why the BRICS was created. Each country has three main indicators:
        1. Resources (human, raw materials, financial, etc.)
        2. Technology.
        3. Market.
        The struggle for it was, is, and will be. Each side has something more than something less. By exchanging these components, they achieve a certain parity with other competitors (EU, USA). Today, the main unifying force of the BRICS is the struggle for the financial resources of the world. More precisely, to shift the US and EU leadership in the IMF and the World Bank, or to compete with these institutions.
        1. iliq
          iliq 8 May 2013 15: 01
          -5
          Quote: Focus
          By exchanging these components, they achieve a certain parity with other competitors

          at least for this you need to have a single political organization. which is not available.

          Quote: Focus
          Today, the main unifying force of the BRICS is the struggle for the financial resources of the world.

          it's not even funny. To do this, you must at least have a single currency - like the dollar and the euro. in the future, perhaps the yuan, but so far the Chinese are bending it as they want.

          Quote: Focus
          More precisely, to shift the US and EU leadership in the IMF and the World Bank, or to compete with these institutions.

          all this is good. on paper soldier
          but in practice, third world countries can not oppose either the United States or the Eurozone.
          while China plays only in its own interests, and those remaining without China - zero without a stick.
          1. Фокус
            Фокус 10 May 2013 00: 13
            0
            Quote: iliq
            at least for this you need to have a single political organization. which is not available.
            What do you want to return to the one-party system, but we have already passed this.
            Quote: iliq
            it's not even funny. To do this, you must at least have a single currency - like the dollar and the euro. in the future, perhaps the yuan, but so far the Chinese are bending it as they want.

            What a joke, if we want to compete on equal terms with the "powerful" then we need not just "big" money, we need "giant" money. It is too early to talk about the creation of a reserve currency for BRICS (although there were presentations), because this is an open challenge to the dollar system and no one is fully prepared for this, since the consequences can be not only economic, but also military in nature, and BRICS is not a military - economic block. And the experience of creating common currencies has side effects and it is not an easy process.
            Quote: iliq
            all this is good. on paper soldier
            but in practice, third world countries can not oppose either the United States or the Eurozone.
            while China plays only in its own interests, and those remaining without China - zero without a stick.

            Influence on IMF policy is the ability to redirect trillions of dollars to various regions of the world, it is an important "lever" of influence on US hegemony. But China itself is interested in BRICS, one should not overestimate its capabilities.
            1. iliq.1
              iliq.1 10 May 2013 22: 10
              0
              Quote: Focus
              What do you want to return to the one-party system, but we have already passed this.

              What does one-parity have to do with it?
              in any union, political will is needed to achieve the goals, even sacrificing something for this.
              here was the CIS - and so what? on paper there is - in reality, an empty place.

              Quote: Focus
              What a joke, if we want to compete on equal terms with the "powerful" then we need not just "big" money, we need "giant" money.

              So what is this "union" for if it cannot create any kind of competition in the near or in the distant future?
              Dai BIX tied to the EU and the Sha so tight ...

              Quote: Focus
              Influence on IMF policy is the ability to redirect trillions of dollars to various regions of the world, it is an important "lever" of influence on US hegemony.

              what flows to which countries?

              Quote: Focus
              Well, China itself is interested in BRICS; one should not overestimate its capabilities.

              and what did China do for this alliance?

              ps please put the pluses, cheers experience minus for a critical position, then writing is impossible.
  4. afire
    afire 8 May 2013 08: 42
    +8
    figuring ratings - you need to sow your fields, but industry is on its feet, and a speculative economy is a blown bubble!
    1. iliq
      iliq 8 May 2013 11: 38
      -1
      Quote: afire
      figuring ratings - you need to sow your fields, but industry is on its feet, and a speculative economy is a blown bubble!

      gold, but marble!
  5. mogus
    mogus 8 May 2013 08: 42
    12
    hmm ... The BRICS began to squeeze the dollar out quietly, so they lost influence in the eyes of the West. And for the introduction of democracy, you can cut off, but how else to insert a spoke in the wheel ..? Just cry.
    1. mogus
      mogus 8 May 2013 08: 48
      +9
      well, actually on their thoughts
    2. Vladimir-35136
      Vladimir-35136 8 May 2013 10: 09
      +3
      Many are trying to give up the dollar, the European Union itself, by introducing the Euro, is doing the same ... the question, it seems to me, is quite different - do you, your country, a bloc of countries by your own labor or like the West at someone else's expense ... all their investments are just a way to sit on someone's neck ... our home-grown leaders do not let them into their garden and do the right thing, we will always dispossess our own people, and try to get to the Rockefellers-Morgan (just kidding). All new Mediterranean "revolutions" are designed to destroy the market and commodity production in the countries surrounding the West and thereby consolidate their servitude, colonial position. Therefore, the main task of the BRICS countries is not just the growth of commodity production and the material well-being of the population, but also the preservation and expansion of the "area of ​​justice".
      1. mogus
        mogus 8 May 2013 10: 22
        +2
        attempt to dispossess: recently changed the head of the Central Bank. Nabiullina, a liberal. Her suggestion: to return money from offshore here. And what, for the oligarchs, this is his own man ...
        What BRICS is doing: "5 out of 10 leading economies have abandoned the dollar"
        http://mixednews.ru/archives/34274
  6. fenix57
    fenix57 8 May 2013 08: 45
    +3
    The article is unambiguously +++. READ! NOT AN ECONOMIST .... Y. BUT IF THEY (ENGLISH-SAXA) SPEAK NO, - MEAN TO US RUSSIA AND OUR ALLIES (BRICS) IT IS NECESSARY TO GO THE PUTTED COURSE! ... AND RUSSIA WILL FIND ITS HERE! 86 \ 90) - probably on Mars laughing
  7. Strezhevchanin
    Strezhevchanin 8 May 2013 08: 52
    +2
    Yes, of course!!! From whom, but from "Goldman Sachs" we certainly did not expect a stormy applause.
    MIST is,
    haze
    haze
    haze
    fog before the eyes
    overcast

    Google translator
    Actually, comments are superfluous, the translation has a clear definition, but you can grab a brick from a turnip, which actually will be soon, because they come out of poor thing with foam !!!
  8. JonnyT
    JonnyT 8 May 2013 09: 22
    +8
    PR people have always been good ..... Since yapping means being afraid
    1. dimon-media
      dimon-media 8 May 2013 11: 51
      +2
      True)) and in general, I consider it as: - if someone from the BRICS countries or Russia is doing something, and in the West they react negatively to this action, then we are going the right way. smile
      1. iliq
        iliq 8 May 2013 11: 58
        -4
        Quote: dimon-media
        if someone from the BRICS countries or Russia is doing something,

        you don’t just say it to the BIKS countries, they won’t understand your desire to get involved at their expense!
        1. dimon-media
          dimon-media 8 May 2013 13: 02
          0
          Can you read? What show-offs from the Russian Federation ?? I wrote clearly in black and white Someone from BRICS or RUSSIA!!! Yours smiled even more: - To get involved at their expense. At least in most cases, we lend to someone, not us. We have abundant accounts. The 90s are over.
          1. iliq
            iliq 8 May 2013 13: 26
            -3
            Quote: dimon-media
            What show-offs from the Russian Federation?

            yes, those are the usual cheap ones. to remind you what ended all the demarches of the Russian Federation in the international arena? how did the "Bush legs" end?

            Quote: dimon-media
            Yours smiled even more: - To get involved at their expense.

            Well, then you wrote about BRICS - it is at their expense that you are trying to punt.

            Quote: dimon-media
            At least in most cases, we lend to someone, not us. We have abundant accounts.

            who is this? To Brazil? China? India? don't make my slippers laugh!
            for some reason, Belarusians take Chinese loans for Chinese products ... while the Russian Federation ponds due to weaker ones!
            1. Lopatov
              Lopatov 8 May 2013 13: 28
              +3
              Quote: iliq
              how did the "Bush legs" end?

              The fact that, for example, in our region now chicken is exclusively its own.
              1. iliq
                iliq 8 May 2013 13: 39
                -3
                Quote: Spade
                The fact that, for example, in our region now chicken is exclusively its own.

                Minsk Gorizont also produces "plasma" - sticking the "Horizon. Made in Belarus" sticker on Samsung products. laughing

                but the import of "Bush's legs" into the Russian Federation has not gone anywhere ...
                http://www.rosbalt.ru/business/2012/06/04/988724.html

                Attention! You do not have permission to view hidden text.
                1. Lopatov
                  Lopatov 8 May 2013 15: 55
                  +3
                  It is difficult to glue full-fledged chickens from the "bush legs". And what they eat in Moscow and St. Petersburg, I don't care. In our country, it was this ban that led to the opening and profitability of three poultry farms. Which provide the entire area with chicken.
                  1. iliq
                    iliq 8 May 2013 16: 03
                    -3
                    Quote: Spade
                    It is difficult to glue full-fledged chickens from "bush legs".

                    as I said, all the cheap show-off of the GDP on the "legs" ended in a quiet zilch. and for this it was enough to hint about the export of steel from the Russian Federation ...

                    Quote: Spade
                    And what in Moscow and Peter eat, I hit the drum.

                    it's five!
                    1. Lopatov
                      Lopatov 8 May 2013 16: 14
                      +3
                      "Cheap show-off" ended up with no legs on Russian counters. And that's a fact. You can hint as much as you like, time cannot be turned back. Nobody buys this d-mo when there are cheap local products on the counter nearby. Moreover, the whole chickens, and not the trimmings, which fastidious Americans refused. They will only deign to consume breasts and wings.
                      1. iliq
                        iliq 8 May 2013 16: 20
                        -3
                        Quote: Spade
                        "Cheap show-off" ended up with no legs on Russian counters. And that's a fact.

                        where 350 thousand tons of these per year go, if they are not on the shelves?
                      2. Lopatov
                        Lopatov 8 May 2013 16: 25
                        +1
                        Tons of what, my friend? Chicken? Or scraps called "Bush legs"?
                        Chicken for the most part in the north, to Moscow and St. Petersburg. Legs are on American landfills. Lafa is over.
                      3. iliq
                        iliq 8 May 2013 16: 31
                        -3
                        Quote: Spade
                        Tons of what, my friend? Chicken? Or scraps called "Bush legs"?

                        policemen were also renamed policemen - what has changed? laughing

                        Quote: Spade
                        Lafa is over.

                        the main thing is to believe in it, buying American chicken, repacked in the back room on Prioskolye, Yasnye Zori, Petelinka
                        hi
                      4. Lopatov
                        Lopatov 8 May 2013 16: 51
                        +1
                        Dear, do you think that people are so burdock that they cannot distinguish legs from whole hens, and you can hang any kind of noodles on their ears?

                        Quote: iliq
                        the main thing is to believe it

                        The main thing is to see it. What is in the package is not 4 legs, but a whole chicken.
                      5. iliq
                        iliq 8 May 2013 17: 25
                        -2
                        Quote: Spade
                        people are so burdock that they cannot distinguish legs from whole hens, and you can hang any kind of noodles on their ears?

                        in principle, yes, especially if this "meat" goes into processing and semi-finished products.
                      6. Lopatov
                        Lopatov 8 May 2013 17: 31
                        +2
                        And why is it necessary to suffer with legs, if it is much more technologically advanced to process breasts? By the way, this is precisely why the "Bush legs" appeared - it is unprofitable to distill them into semi-finished products.
                      7. iliq
                        iliq 8 May 2013 17: 44
                        -2
                        Well, semi-finished products are not only chicken carcass - this is all sorts of barbecue, pets and stuff, where they put the chicken.

                        and as we see - the number of consumed American chicken is still growing !?
                      8. Lopatov
                        Lopatov 9 May 2013 01: 02
                        +1
                        And that’s the meat from the breast. You never saw a chicken, if you don't understand this elementary
                      9. iliq
                        iliq 9 May 2013 01: 40
                        -3
                        just don’t tell me what is going where. a couple of years ago in Germany there was already a scandal with spoiled (rotten) meat, which was sold for "grilling" in Turkish cafes.

                        this year - a new scandal when there was horse meat instead of beef, and in many supermarket chains - processed in semi-finished products ...

                        or "artificial meat" which is industrially glued from scraps - only experts can distinguish ...

                        so don't be about what and where "should" go, okay? otherwise I'll ask what goes into the stew stop

                        ps about the control in Germany - if the client complains about a restaurant / cafe / eatery, the check is required!
                      10. Lopatov
                        Lopatov 9 May 2013 02: 05
                        +3
                        And how all this refutes a simple fact: it is inconvenient to remove meat from the legs and therefore only breasts are used. It is more economically profitable to simply throw away the "bush legs". Well, or shove it to Russia, although the lafa is already over here.

                        We have problems with meat. They are catching buffalo, kenguryatina. But they are not legs — they are so unprofitable that even scammers don’t get involved with them; they just prefer to pluck soybeans in semi-finished products.

                        And by the way about horse meat, here we go to a very high-quality and quite expensive product like sausage.
                      11. Kaa
                        Kaa 9 May 2013 02: 26
                        +1
                        Quote: Spade
                        And how does this refute a simple fact?
                        I agree. and one more, more complex fact. One big chicken meat company first ran an ad: "From hatching to consumer, our chickens live 28 !!!!! days. That's why their meat is so young and delicious." I will not argue, they live so long, turning into broilers, stuffed with hormones and antibiotics. Most importantly: the main place of accumulation of this charm is LEGS, as nature has decreed. Knowing this, the Americans dumped this obscenity to us, leaving for themselves (or rather, their poor people) less harmful parts. And these very hormones very easily pass to lovers of legs, after which people wonder where allergies, obesity, infertility come from ...
                      12. Lopatov
                        Lopatov 9 May 2013 02: 41
                        +1
                        We also have these beetles with broilers appeared. But local.
                        I don’t know, maybe where the American chicken is, but not with us. Big cities and the north. Although large, it is unlikely. The people are painfully picky.
  • Containers
    Containers 8 May 2013 16: 07
    +2
    Well, where, where are these Bush legs? Prioskolye, Clear Dawns, Petelinka, local producers - there are. There are no Bush legs.
    1. iliq
      iliq 8 May 2013 16: 19
      -4
      Quote: Kosha
      Well, where, where are these Bush legs?

      that's interesting to me - the USA exports 350 thousand tons of this good per year to the Russian Federation. how it is repackaged and sold in the Russian Federation - no idea, ask Onishchenko about it;)
      1. Lopatov
        Lopatov 8 May 2013 16: 26
        +2
        A reference, please. At 350 thousand tons of scrap per year.
        1. iliq
          iliq 8 May 2013 16: 32
          -2
          was already higher.
        2. Lopatov
          Lopatov 8 May 2013 16: 52
          +1
          There was a link to chicken, not to trim.
        3. iliq
          iliq 8 May 2013 17: 26
          -2
          Are Bush's Legs Chicken or Not?
          hi
        4. Lopatov
          Lopatov 8 May 2013 17: 32
          0
          And is all chicken "bush legs", as you are trying to argue?
        5. iliq
          iliq 8 May 2013 17: 46
          -4
          certainly not. but I have doubts that "first-class" chicken can be sold in Russia - purely because of the price thereof, plus transportation costs. and there is no place to take such volumes of "breasts" to replace "legs".
        6. Lopatov
          Lopatov 9 May 2013 01: 03
          +1
          Type in Google "a poultry farm is open. You will understand where
        7. Containers
          Containers 9 May 2013 13: 10
          0
          Your doubts are from ignorance.
  • Containers
    Containers 9 May 2013 13: 08
    0
    "The quota for the supply of chicken meat to Russia for 2012 was approved in the amount of 250 thousand tons for all countries, for the import of frozen minced chicken - 70 thousand tons (of which 56 thousand tons are allocated to the EU and 14 thousand tons to the rest of the countries), frozen turkey meat - 10 thousand tons for all countries. In 2011, the volume of the poultry meat import quota was 350 thousand tons, while minced meat was not allocated in a separate position. "

    what 350 thousand tons of Bush's legs, okst, bobik.
  • Old_ret
    Old_ret 9 May 2013 00: 23
    +2
    Italians also produce plasma by sticking a Hantarex sticker on Samsung products, and what's wrong? You would first ask how many firms produce plasma and LCD matrices
  • Engineer Schukin
    Engineer Schukin 8 May 2013 09: 43
    -9
    Quote: Vladimirets
    The conclusions are interesting, but made through the ass. Russia does not persuade anyone, for Christ’s sake, to buy its hydrocarbons, on the contrary, those who wish are in line to buy them. I don’t see anything shameful in this. Is the USA giving alms to Russia? Yeah, mercy and selflessness in their blood. The thing is that the world without our hydrocarbons cannot. Did the war in Iraq help us? I imagine what will happen if tomorrow the Russian Federation announces the cessation of hydrocarbon supplies abroad, I think the third world one.

    Hmm, how everything is running.
    I'm sorry, how old are you?
    1. Vladimirets
      Vladimirets 8 May 2013 10: 52
      +4
      Quote: Engineer Shchukin
      I'm sorry, how old are you?

      Sorry, I’m not interested in talking to you, all the best to you. hi
  • djon3volta
    djon3volta 8 May 2013 09: 50
    +8
    BRICS has not started yet, but in the West it has already been written off.
  • Engineer Schukin
    Engineer Schukin 8 May 2013 10: 04
    -2
    Quote: JonnyT
    The EU economy directly depends on Our

    Quite the opposite.
    Russia's hydrocarbons cannot disappear, at least in the coming decades, as well as their supply, but the level of EU production directly determines the demand for Russian gas. And with any serious recession in the EU, the Russian Federation will suffer first.
    These are simple things, it is strange that I have to explain them.
    A sharp drop in prices will lead to a reduction in supplies .... from which Europeans will make their goods ????

    what ridiculous nonsense are you writing?
    Do you understand what factors influence the price of hydrocarbons?
    if the US and the EU collapse in hydrocarbon prices (which is not easy to do), then they will collapse first of all their economy!

    everything is clear, you absolutely do not understand the subject of which you are so meaningfully graphomaniac.
    Thank you, interest is lost.
    1. djon3volta
      djon3volta 8 May 2013 10: 18
      +1
      Quote: Engineer Shchukin
      And with any serious recession in the EU, the Russian Federation will suffer first.

      and the EU countries do not feed their cars and do not heat their homes? Besides the factories that feed on our energy, they also warm themselves. But most importantly, now the main production of all consumer goods and not only has gone to China and other countries, but they also require energy, like Japan. Or will they drown with firewood? They are also afraid of nuclear power plants, so they won’t last long without oil and gas, remember the cries when Ukraine cut gas transit, how the EU countries howled wassat
    2. mogus
      mogus 8 May 2013 10: 26
      0
      you left my question unanswered: there will be no dollar, it will be replaced by another (gold, yuan, ruble). What will happen?
    3. JonnyT
      JonnyT 8 May 2013 10: 31
      +6
      Quote: Engineer Shchukin
      Quite the opposite.

      Oh, oh ..... And why now when they have a crisis, we do not have an economic disaster ???
      Quote: Engineer Shchukin
      And with any serious recession in the EU, the Russian Federation will suffer first.
      It will suffer, but not collapse ..... In addition to imports, there is also a domestic market .... Lower domestic energy prices coupled with benefits will give a huge impetus to the development of private business and medium-sized enterprises



      Quote: Engineer Shchukin
      everything is clear, you absolutely do not understand the subject of which you are so meaningfully graphomaniac.


      The object that the Western capitalists came up with - the hucksters do not understand. And I think the capitalist teachings are the main fallacy. Capitalism is a mistake of mankind!
      I don’t understand one thing, what will your boasted EU do without resources ??? What will she ultimately eat ??? What will they drive their cars ??? On gay gay or something ????
      Of course, the capitalist system built during the heyday of democracy in Russia has a huge impact on the economy of our country. People in power are interested in the prosperity of the West. They and they created the resource dependence in Russia.
      Now back to the topic. For example, the EU and the US have collapsed oil prices, in response, Russia cuts off the supply of all resources - and all ...... 3,14dec to your EU !!!!
    4. dimon-media
      dimon-media 8 May 2013 13: 13
      +4
      Engineer Schukin, Wildly excuse me for interfering in your argument, dear. Let's be blunt: - God bless him with production and gas and oil prices. All the same, our economy is not 100% dependent on these prices. Yes, we will suffer, and only! But we will not die of hunger, be sure. But what will the very Europe do, where they live on their heads and do not have enough agricultural land ?? we even came out on top in the export of wheat to the west! The main wealth of Russia is not in hydrocarbons, should there be a global crisis, our wealth in the earth! So much cultivated land, and how much is still not claimed! We have every chance to live autonomously, regardless of Europe and other countries! Fuck with these tablets and laptops. We won’t die out of starvation, but Europe will definitely die without us, and in winter, the whole person will freeze.
  • Engineer Schukin
    Engineer Schukin 8 May 2013 10: 17
    -3
    Quote: Vladimir-35136
    decline in oil prices

    Vladimir, you mixed cutlets with flies, therefore you got confused.
    Demand and price are completely different values.
    You completely forget about the main factor - the proposal.

    The price rises - when the supply decreases, and actually vice versa.
    These are the fundamentals of the market, the basics, without understanding which, it is better not to stick your nose into this issue at all.

    You must understand (more precisely, learn the materiel), where the Russian Federation is not a global monopolist exporter, although it is one of the main players. And you must understand that no one is going to abandon Russian oil or gas, just the situation will reduce the price, which will directly affect the raw material economy of Russia.
    But you should know that the budgets of the Russian Federation until 2020 were composed of extremely optimistic expectations of a high price.
    1. djon3volta
      djon3volta 8 May 2013 12: 50
      +3
      Quote: Engineer Shchukin
      But you should know that the budgets of the Russian Federation until 2020 were composed of extremely optimistic expectations of a high price.

      To paraphrase a famous saying, we can safely say: oil is the head of everything. Without hydrocarbons, no modern production is unthinkable. We carry oil on ourselves, we use it in everyday life, we even eat it. Dry out the fountains of black liquid, and we all will have a hard time. One often hears that Russia has not learned how to work, but simply shears oil coupons and produces nothing worthwhile. And smiling gloatingly saying these words: what then will you do when the oil runs out?
      He smiles in vain. After all, the same question can be safely addressed to him: what will you, sir or comrade, do when oil runs out in Russia, in Saudi Arabia and faraway Ecuador? After all, Russia has a vast territory, the Arctic shelf and permafrost, in which you can find anything, if you search well. And what will Norway do, whose territory cannot be compared with us? And Qatar will live? What will be the fate of the United Arab Emirates? For some reason, no one asks such questions, but only cares about the fate of Russian oil. As if an expensive natural resource should end only with us alone. According to various estimates, Russia possesses approximately 6-15% of the world's proven oil reserves. It seems to be a little, but we must understand that the remaining interest also does not belong to any one power. In other words, when our oil runs out, it will come to an end almost everywhere.
      Then, some say (usually dissatisfied with the current Russian government), a heavy hangover will come. It’s necessary, they say, to get Russia off the oil needle and prepare for the inevitable collapse of its economy. In fact, it is not Russia that sits on the notorious “needle”. One of the professors at Princeton University, Jeffrey Herbst, recently published a list of countries that are most dependent on the export of mineral resources. Russia is not among them. These are Kuwait, Angola, Nigeria, Uganda, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Oman and Saudi Arabia. [8] That's who really has to peel off the oil needle. Citizens of Russia can safely look to the future and not succumb to panic publications and speeches.
      1. djon3volta
        djon3volta 8 May 2013 12: 52
        +3
        Such “horror stories” are designed exclusively for emotions, and their goal is the same: to instill in us uncertainty about tomorrow, to sow panic and anxiety. There are no reasons for that! Why? Because in addition to oil, which we really do not have much, God endowed the Russian people with much more serious gas reserves. Russia owns about 30-36% of the global gas supply. But even this should not inspire us with optimism. The point is completely different. When they rub their hands happily, talking about the imminent depletion of Russian oil reserves, for some reason no one wonders, but how will the rest of the world economy live in such conditions? Together with us, the United States, Great Britain, Japan, Germany and all other industrialized countries of the Planet sit “on an oil needle”. How will their economy function if the thing that EVERYTHING is made of suddenly disappears? Take, for example, a modern car. Oil in the form of fuel is flooded in its womb, but this is only a small part of the hydrocarbons spent on its creation. Half-plastic modern cars are made from plastic derived from oil. Inside the car, the seats are covered with "genuine" leather, made not from the skins of unfortunate animals. If your car, when it was new, cost less than $ 70 LLC, then I assure you that its leather interior is completely leather and is not, although it is so indicated in the specification. A car rolls on tires, in the production of which hydrocarbons play a huge role. When the oil runs out at once, what do Japan and Germany, who are supposedly not sitting on the oil needle, begin to make their cars from? Of wood and iron? Of fish bones and Bavarian sausages?
        And the global production of synthetic clothing and shoes? How will it live on? All these nikes, riboque and adidas. They are completely unnatural. Who and what will compensate the global manufacturers of consumer electronics for the lack of synthetic cases for TVs and tape recorders, video players and food processors? But these are still children's toys in comparison with fuel problems. To heat with oil is to heat with bank notes. Everyone knows this axiom, but, however, they drown and drown. And what will they start to heat later? Real bills?
    2. nov_tech.vrn
      nov_tech.vrn 8 May 2013 15: 50
      +5
      Where the numbers come from, discard the link, some are left, by the way to bring down the price of carbohydrates is easy, but not for long the cost of extraction from oil shale is high and will quickly become unprofitable when the cost drops.
    3. luka095
      luka095 9 May 2013 20: 11
      0
      Dear engineer Schukin, you are trying to mislead us (perhaps because you are mistaken yourself).
      I inform you that the price changes not only depending on supply, but also on demand. It seems to me that your peremptory judgments do not help clarify the issue. Sometimes it is not harmful to follow your own call - "... the basics, not understanding which, it is better not to pry into this question at all."
      So, in your words - "teach materiel"
  • Reserve buildbat
    Reserve buildbat 8 May 2013 10: 21
    +7
    Goldman Sachs seems to be wishful thinking. Such "ehperts" have been squeaking for 20 years that Russia is doomed, it is dying, etc. Now BRICS has been "sentenced". They sense that a real competitor is appearing, so they bark.
  • Engineer Schukin
    Engineer Schukin 8 May 2013 10: 39
    -7
    Quote: Nick
    I would like to understand how reliable your sources are.

    What to talk about with you if you are simply off topic?
    Sources for macroeconomic indicators - I voiced.
    Sources for Golden Sachs Old open source, learn to fill the gaps in your knowledge yourself, spoon feed me uninteresting.
    Yes, but this is only in the structure of the state budget, in the structure of GDP about 20%. To assert, like some, that we are sitting only on the oil and gas needle is incorrect. And it is all the more incorrect to assert that "... Russia, in principle, produces nothing except sucking out its bowels ..."

    I apologize, but what kind of mess in your head is on the matter.
    I explain on the fingers - GDP is an amorphous slurry, the net value of which is not an indicator of little more than nothing. For you, the average resident of the entrance, the _BUDGET_ is important, because this is precisely the "people's" pocket, ie. money that conditionally belongs to people. And GDP is also the state of Usmanov, Deripaska, Prokhorov and a whole horde of oligarchs.
  • Engineer Schukin
    Engineer Schukin 8 May 2013 10: 42
    -4
    Quote: mogus
    you left my question unanswered: there will be no dollar, it will be replaced by another (gold, yuan, ruble). What will happen?

    I'm not interested in fantasizing about "there will be no dollar".
    it will not "become" through the vast future, so spare me these ignorant questions.
  • Engineer Schukin
    Engineer Schukin 8 May 2013 10: 55
    -5
    Quote: JonnyT
    Oh, oh ..... And why now when they have a crisis, we do not have an economic disaster ???

    And what is the crisis in Europe - please tell us. Moreover, it is desirable immediately in the context of production, which determines the demand for hydrocarbons.
    Lower domestic energy prices coupled with benefits will give a huge impetus to the development of private business, and medium-sized enterprises

    And what prevents them from reducing now?
    The object that Western capitalists came up with - hucksters do not understand

    For this, interest in the conversation is completely lost.
    The question is, why do I spend time on thematic communication with a person who himself admits that he is a complete zero in the topic of discussion. What interest do I have with this?
    1. JonnyT
      JonnyT 8 May 2013 12: 11
      +2
      The crisis in Europe affected mostly state employees .... in a word, the freebie is over, the purchasing power of the local European population has decreased, this fact does not affect production much, since the domestic European market does not account for the main share of production .... Production so far thanks to the foreign market and monetary injections from the eurozone states ..... The whole EU is kept afloat by Germany, thanks to a highly developed and technologically advanced industry. Industry is the main consumer of all resources, oil, gas, ferrous and non-ferrous metal, wood .... And the share of finished goods produced in the EU has decreased, and the prospects for a further decrease ...

      I do not know by what principle in the supply contracts the price of resources for the EU is formed. What did the Western puppets sign on our side. But it is logical to assume that your property can be sold at any price ...... and all these stories about economically unjustified prices are nothing more than trade ....

      If you think that playing by the rules of the enemy in a game in which you can only lose, stand under the pressure of G.0.v.na and do not dodge - this is normal, then I will not dissuade you. If you think that Russia has no leverage over the EU, your right



      Quote: Engineer Shchukin
      The question is, why am I wasting time


      Really, why ??? Better play forex, there are solid economists around ...

      All the best to you!
  • mogus
    mogus 8 May 2013 11: 00
    +1
    Quote: Engineer Schukin
    Quote: mogus
    you left my question unanswered: there will be no dollar, it will be replaced by another (gold, yuan, ruble). What will happen?

    I'm not interested in fantasizing about "there will be no dollar".
    it will not "become" through the vast future, so spare me these ignorant questions.



    Not interested? You made such a noise ... You are trying to analyze, well, let's:
    Australia being 12
    the largest world
    economy joined
    to a growing list of countries
    agreed to refuse
    dollar in bilateral trade with China. China,
    being the second largest
    world economy after the USA,
    also has similar
    agreements with Japan (3
    place), Brazil (6th place), India (9th place) and Russia
    (10th place). Although unilateral
    some agreement
    time took place between
    China and listed
    higher countries last
    BRICS week agreed to create a development bank,
    which will compete with
    IMF, which indicates that
    it is created for
    activities in
    "Post-dollar" world. In addition, Brazil,
    which some time
    back gave a principled
    consent to get away from the dollar in
    bilateral trade with
    China, just made it official, creating
    annual $ 30-
    billionth currency
    swap to be
    facilitate
    approximately 50 percent of the trade between them. In addition to these agreements with
    China, some of these
    countries signed the same
    agreement with each other.
    India and Japan in 2011
    founded a $ 15 billion swap in their currencies for
    bilateral
    trade. And sanctions against
    Iran did not stop him
    oil trading with China,
    Russia and India in anything but the dollar.
    US Treasury
    released the results
    audit by accidentally revealing
    that the gold reserves in the Fed
    New York make up
    only 466 tons. US Treasury
    published the results
    held since 2010
    gold reserves audit
    treasury held in
    Federal Reserve of New York. No wonder in
    Fed report alleges
    that during the audit was not
    revealed no problems with
    quality stored in the Fed
    New York gold, or any problems with
    policies or procedures
    New York Fed. In the audit, as they say,
    it is claimed that in 3 out of 367
    gold quality tests, it
    it turned out even cleaner than in
    Fed records approved
    earlier. However, the most noteworthy discovery in the report was that the United States (which, as
    supposed to store
    most of their stocks
    New York Fed)
    keep on deposit new
    York Federal Reserve a total of 34,021
    gold bullion high
    Quality: As part of the audit
    Treasury conducted tests
    samples 34,021 stocks in
    bars kept under the financial quarter
    Manhattan Why is this so important? Any
    person with ordinary
    calculator can
    calculate that department
    Treasury by chance
    admitted that unlike the official 8133.5 tons,
    owned
    Treasury Gold
    stocks, actual stocks
    Treasury gold in the Fed
    New York City make up only 466,57 tons.
    1. Engineer Schukin
      Engineer Schukin 8 May 2013 11: 16
      -6
      quite a well-known trend, the pace of which will continue to languishly stretch for an immeasurably long time, because all these gestures are simply insignificant against the background of the global mass of the dollar.

      and there’s nothing else to replace it with. all of these BRICS are the essence of solid paper memoranda and other agreements of intent.

      the dollar is no longer a cake, but in reality there is nothing that could replace it. so cheers for patriots to gurgle about the "end of the dollar" for a long time)
  • fenix57
    fenix57 8 May 2013 11: 01
    +2
    Quote: Engineer Shchukin
    . And with any serious recession in the EU, the Russian Federation will suffer first.

    And let's go from the opposite: Russia STOPS GAS SUPPLIES! It is clear - "the gas-oil needle". BUT SUDDENLY! ..... Well, for a week, a month, a year ... Imagine ... so what ..? hi
  • Engineer Schukin
    Engineer Schukin 8 May 2013 11: 04
    -6
    Quote: fenix57
    Quote: Engineer Shchukin
    . And with any serious recession in the EU, the Russian Federation will suffer first.

    And let's go from the opposite: Russia STOPS GAS SUPPLIES! It is clear - "the gas-oil needle". BUT SUDDENLY! ..... Well, for a week, a month, a year ... Imagine ... so what ..? hi

    I'm not interested in discussing childhood fantasies.
  • pinecone
    pinecone 8 May 2013 11: 05
    0
    To the author. The article says: "Turkey is good because its exports are 20%," but it does not say why. Clarify please.
    1. Mart
      8 May 2013 11: 22
      +2
      Quote: pinecone
      To the author. The article says: "Turkey is good because its exports are 20%," but it does not say why. Clarify please.

      We are talking about the export, which concerns mainly industrial (non-primary) goods. You can read more HERE. hi In general, I said in my review: "... it has a high proportion of manufactured goods." Apparently, I wrote it too briefly. smile
  • Uhe
    Uhe 8 May 2013 11: 13
    +2
    Mist - translated from German as manure;)
  • Engineer Schukin
    Engineer Schukin 8 May 2013 11: 23
    -4
    Quote: Kaa
    Quote: Engineer Shchukin
    Russia, in principle, produces nothing but the suction of its bowels.
    Well, so you can agree to the fact that the United States does not produce anything except weapons, services, financial bubbles and FRS waste paper! Google to help us: "The structure of the US GDP:
    Agriculture 2% of GDP 2,7% of workers
    Industry 23% of GDP 24,8% of employees
    Services 75% of GDP 72,5% of employees (including managerial staff) http://www.globfin.ru/info/usa.htm
    And what is the service sector? You fill my tooth, and I’ll print you dollars laughing But if “wild uncivilized Russia collapses the hydrocarbon market”, it will be difficult to refuel the car, teeth will be untreated, dollars will be unprinted. Service industry USA, where are you ???!!!! belay

    Well, for starters, the United States is completely independent of Russian hydrocarbons, any educated person knows that.
    23% of the US industry in absolute values ​​is several times (if not tens) more than the industry of the Russian Federation.
    1. urganov
      urganov 9 May 2013 16: 46
      +1
      You liar, Engineer Shchukin. "Provide data from the US Congress Statistical Office on industrial production, broken down by years and types of physical products. All questions will disappear by themselves. And do not forget about the real value of the dollar in comparison ..., but at least with the gold equivalent And at the same time, look at the cost of a barrel of oil compared to gold over the years. (When I say "Physical production" I mean what can be measured in meters, kilograms, etc.) "Bitten apple" and " Small-soft "with the ownership of the idea, I do not mention, because this does not apply to products.
  • Belogor
    Belogor 8 May 2013 11: 29
    +1
    All these economists are charlatans of pure water. They are engaged in a gag and with a smart look pass it off as a science. Meanwhile, there is a global economic crisis and no one can advise anything practical.
  • Son
    Son 8 May 2013 11: 38
    +3
    Ah, yes Schukin .. !!! Ah yes son of a bitch .. !!!
  • Engineer Schukin
    Engineer Schukin 8 May 2013 12: 00
    -2
    Quote: Vladimirets
    Quote: Engineer Shchukin
    I'm sorry, how old are you?

    Sorry, I’m not interested in talking to you, all the best to you. hi

    We have lost mutual interest. At least something we have in common.
    All the best.
  • mogus
    mogus 8 May 2013 12: 05
    +2
    Quote: Engineer Schukin
    quite a well-known trend, the pace of which will continue to languishly stretch for an immeasurably long time, because all these gestures are simply insignificant against the background of the global mass of the dollar.

    and there’s nothing else to replace it with. all of these BRICS are the essence of solid paper memoranda and other agreements of intent.

    the dollar is no longer a cake, but in reality there is nothing that could replace it. so cheers for patriots to gurgle about the "end of the dollar" for a long time)



    Those. Do you consider it a "small gurgle" on ... balovo? This is when more than 8 thousand tons of gold were officially announced, but in fact less than 500 tons.
    1. Engineer Schukin
      Engineer Schukin 8 May 2013 12: 22
      -2
      Milchevloek, how do you know how many there are in fact?
      1. mogus
        mogus 8 May 2013 12: 34
        +1
        here is a link to the original in english http://silverdoctors.com/treasury-dept-releases-findings-of-ny-fed-gold-audit-st
        ates-gold-more-pure-than-previously-thought /

        You correctly noted that there will be a gradual slide in the dollar. Just a matter of time. I would not be surprised if this period is 15 years ... maybe a little longer. Not because of the lack of physical gold in the United States, will Germany return its gold within seven years?
        Under the laws of capitalism, bankruptcy does not lead to ...
        1. Engineer Schukin
          Engineer Schukin 8 May 2013 12: 48
          -7
          Quote: mogus
          here is the link to the original in english

          on the original of what? wink
          Quote: mogus
          Will Germany return its gold in seven years?

          in the international arena, this is not a question.
          no one is discussing it and no one is interested.
          I xs where you find such subjects for discussion.
          1. urganov
            urganov 9 May 2013 16: 56
            +1
            So this question is about. "Is there still a boy." I apologize for such a free interpretation of the classic. "Al who stole? Or is he not clean on hand, with a stranger's disposition that there is no demand from him, canal?"
  • mogus
    mogus 8 May 2013 13: 09
    +2
    Quote: Engineer Schukin
    Quote: mogus
    here is the link to the original in english

    on the original of what? wink
    Quote: mogus
    Will Germany return its gold in seven years?

    in the international arena, this is not a question.
    no one is discussing it and no one is interested.
    I xs where you find such subjects for discussion.


    Link to the source of the text in English.

    I find subjects for discussion in a network.

    About the return of gold http://voprosik.net/pochemu-germaniya-vozvrashhaet-zoloto/
    1. Engineer Schukin
      Engineer Schukin 8 May 2013 15: 28
      -3
      Link to the source of the text in English

      thank you very much, cap)
      only my question is not closed - where does the reliable information come from that the US gold reserves are 500 tons, and not 8 thousand tons?

      Do not offer links to sites with nouns; you wouldn’t tell me what link you had yet.
      1. mogus
        mogus 8 May 2013 17: 32
        +2
        on mixednews (they translate foreign articles. There are links to the originals on the site).
        http://mixednews.ru/archives/31676

        department
        Treasury by chance
        admitted that unlike the official 8133.5 tons,
        owned
        Treasury Gold
        stocks, actual stocks
        Treasury gold in the Fed
        New York City make up only 466,57 tons.

        http://www.discred.ru/news/utechka_iz_mvf_moshennichestvo_centralnykh_bankov_na_
        rynke_zolota_proiskhodit_chto_to_neladnoe / 2013-02-06-2725

        You do not watch links and I have to repeat.
        And do not hope that the State Department will say about the absence of gold ... I advise you to look for "tungsten gold" - why was it necessary to substitute it? Only if there is no gold.
  • dimon-media
    dimon-media 8 May 2013 13: 28
    +2
    The future of America and its satilitites:
    1. The comment was deleted.
      1. dimon-media
        dimon-media 8 May 2013 15: 53
        +1
        apparently yours.
  • Engineer Schukin
    Engineer Schukin 8 May 2013 15: 21
    -5
    Quote: dimon-media
    Engineer Schukin, Wildly excuse me for interfering in your argument, dear. Let's be blunt: - God bless him with production and gas and oil prices. All the same, our economy is not 100% dependent on these prices. Yes, we will suffer, and only! But we will not die of hunger, be sure. But what will the very Europe do, where they live on their heads and do not have enough agricultural land ?? we even came out on top in the export of wheat to the west! The main wealth of Russia is not in hydrocarbons, should there be a global crisis, our wealth in the earth! So much cultivated land, and how much is still not claimed! We have every chance to live autonomously, regardless of Europe and other countries! Fuck with these tablets and laptops. We won’t die out of starvation, but Europe will definitely die without us, and in winter, the whole person will freeze.

    It's hard for me to argue with your caveman, we understand the issue where, in discussing macroeconomic trends, you operate with frankly childish logical chains "we have land - that means we will survive, but they do not, so they will die."
    By the way, learn the materiel, start with the market conditions for energy carriers.
    Also, do not forget to find out at what level of adaptability of rural lands in Europe and Russia, as a result, the difference in productivity coefficient.
    Vector I gave, enlighten.
    1. iliq
      iliq 8 May 2013 15: 25
      -4
      Quote: Engineer Shchukin
      at what level of farmland adaptability in Europe

      You can also mention the robust investments in renewable energy sources, the development of biofuels and broad (at the level of legislation) measures for energy efficiency and energy conservation in Europe.
    2. dimon-media
      dimon-media 8 May 2013 15: 39
      +3
      What I have expressed is objective. Everything ingenious is simple. When all infrastructure collapses and nothing remains, land will play a critical role. In the future, I ask without insults, pseudo-engineer Schukin. Professor, also to me, your mother ..
      What did Europe howl when, during a gas dispute with Ukraine, gas was shut off? Note, dear, the gas was shut off only a few days.
      I have no desire to continue the discussion with you. As they say, - keep silent, you will marry a smart one.
      1. iliq
        iliq 8 May 2013 15: 44
        -6
        Quote: dimon-media
        What did Europe howl when, during a gas dispute with Ukraine, gas was shut off?

        do not watch pseudo-patriatic Russian media. no matter how much some would like, the EU very calmly resolved this issue, and made certain conclusions about the "business qualities of the partner" ...
        1. dimon-media
          dimon-media 8 May 2013 15: 46
          +1
          Well, more in detail. How did the EU resolve the issue? And why, then, does the EU pay us hundreds of millions and maybe billions of dollars for hydrocarbons, if it can solve its energy problems without Russia ?? Is that an act of charity from the EU ??
          1. Lopatov
            Lopatov 8 May 2013 15: 52
            +2
            How? Germany finally decided to participate in the Nord Stream. Like you don’t know
        2. dimon-media
          dimon-media 8 May 2013 15: 50
          +2
          and I also want to add, if Europe were independent of the Russian pipe, they would do everything to deprive us of gas / oil dollars. Look, you have a cow. Will you go buy milk at the market?
          It’s unpleasant for me to have a stupid argument. All the best.
          1. iliq
            iliq 8 May 2013 15: 59
            -7
            Quote: dimon-media
            would Europe be independent of the Russian pipe

            ndas ...

            Quote: dimon-media
            they would do anything to strip us of gas / petrodollars.

            what for? Germans profitable to export goods.
            and this, something of pseudo-patriots always wedges on the fact that they all wish evil ...
            By the way, why bother about gas / petrodollars? Does the Russian Federation have anything else besides these?

            Quote: dimon-media
            Look, you have a cow. Will you go buy milk at the market?

            if I have a cow, it means that my well-being has grown.
        3. Lopatov
          Lopatov 8 May 2013 15: 51
          +1
          Have you decided to participate in Streams? There was a case.
          1. dimon-media
            dimon-media 8 May 2013 15: 53
            +1
            Excuse me .. in which "Streams"? Well Duc again, it's not enough to have a pipe. It is important to fill it with something.
    3. Setrac
      Setrac 8 May 2013 22: 23
      +2
      Quote: Engineer Shchukin
      It's hard for me to argue with your caveman, we understand the issue where, in discussing macroeconomic trends, you operate with frankly childish logical chains "we have land - that means we will survive, but they do not, so they will die."
      By the way, learn the materiel, start with the market conditions for energy carriers.

      I propose to teach you the materiel, without oil (and other high technologies that depend on the supply of oil), agricultural productivity in Europe will fall at times. Somehow Europeans are not used to living at the expense of gardens.
  • iliq
    iliq 8 May 2013 15: 54
    -3
    Quote: dimon-media
    How did the EU resolve the issue?

    The EU has indicated GDP in its place - and that’s it.

    Quote: dimon-media
    And why, then, does the EU pay us hundreds of millions and maybe billions of dollars for hydrocarbons,

    not to you, but to Mr. Abramovich and Co. absolutely nothing falls to you from these hundreds of billions.

    Quote: dimon-media
    can solve its energy problems without the RF?

    reduced the number of Russian energy carriers; Norwegian and BV consume more. plus the construction of solar energy, wind energy, tides. biofuel (ethanol, diesel, wood). energy-saving technologies - warming houses, smart heating / cooling, energy-saving light bulbs, a constant decrease in energy consumption by electrical appliances, more efficient ICEs ...
    continue?
    1. Lopatov
      Lopatov 8 May 2013 15: 58
      +2
      Quote: iliq
      reduced the number of Russian energy carriers; Norwegian and BV consume more. plus the construction of solar energy, wind energy, tides. biofuel (ethanol, diesel, wood). energy-saving technologies - insulation of houses,

      But from this place in great detail, and in numbers.
      1. iliq
        iliq 8 May 2013 16: 17
        -2
        http://about-norge.net/page/norvegija-dogonjaet-rossiju-po-postavkam-gaza-v-evro
        pu
        1. Lopatov
          Lopatov 8 May 2013 16: 21
          +1
          404. Nothing was found ...
          1. dimon-media
            dimon-media 8 May 2013 16: 25
            +2
            Keep)) copied the article.

            Russia and Norway are the main competitors in supplying Europe with gas. In the past 2012, the trend was not in Russia's favor.

            In particular, Ukraine is reporting a decrease in Russian gas consumption. In 2012, gas imports to Ukraine decreased by 27%, compared with 2011. The main gas consumer in Europe - Germany - in 2013 will provide more than half of its needs with Norwegian gas.

            The result of 2012:

            Norway: increased deliveries from 92 to 107,6 billion cubic meters m, an increase of 16%.

            Russia: reduced supplies from 123 to 113 billion cubic meters. m, or 8% (excluding Turkey).

            Thus, Norway and Russia are almost equal in terms of gas supplies to Europe. To ensure proper export, Norway has to move further north for gas production.
            1. Lopatov
              Lopatov 8 May 2013 16: 31
              +1
              Quote: dimon-media
              To ensure proper export, Norway has to move further north for gas production.

              Which leads to more and more expensive it. Let's see the results of the 13th.
              1. iliq
                iliq 8 May 2013 16: 34
                -5
                oh, already "let's wait for the results"? laughing
                1. Lopatov
                  Lopatov 8 May 2013 16: 53
                  0
                  Not "oh" but wait for the results
        2. dimon-media
          dimon-media 8 May 2013 16: 22
          +1
          Maybe it is catching up with Russia in terms of gas supplies, only the demand for Russian gas is growing and the demand in the market, too, respectively. Now imagine a picture, Europe will not get half of the volume of consumed gas if Russia closes the valve? Do you think Norway will cope with the deficit, even to the detriment of domestic consumers? Moreover, as I understand it, their reserves are not very .. they have to move farther north. At that time, in Russia, gas reserves are almost limitless. VERY IMPORTANT MOMENT, I WANT TO UNDERSTAND.Thus, Norway and Russia are almost equal in terms of gas supplies to Europe. To ensure proper export, Norway has to move further north for gas production.
          1. iliq
            iliq 8 May 2013 16: 38
            -4
            Quote: dimon-media
            Maybe it is catching up with Russia in terms of gas supplies, only the demand for Russian gas is growing and the demand in the market, too, respectively.

            we learn materiel, consumption (though predicted) on the contrary decreases.
            especially with the massive development of renewable energies, which began literally in recent years.

            Quote: dimon-media
            Now imagine a picture, Europe will not get half of the volume of consumed gas if Russia closes the valve?

            accounts and property of Russian politicians and enterprises abroad will be frozen ...
            and the price of oil and gas will jump several times - but the Russian Federation as a "partner" will be in such a deep priest ... will have to change from the Maybachs to the Volga ...
            1. dimon-media
              dimon-media 8 May 2013 21: 07
              +1
              Quote: iliq
              accounts and property of Russian politicians and enterprises abroad will be frozen ...

              Rave. Europe will lose much more from these butts. Industrial collapse will be provided to them. Russia will be able to survive the freezing of its accounts in Western banks. Look at Europe, they have and so the whole economy is bursting at the seams. Cyprus, Greece, Italy can barely hold on .. Small Britain begins to speak in a quiet whisper about leaving the eurozone, Germany - the locomotive of the European economy will look on our side of the barricades. What are we talking about? Butting in essence is no longer with anyone. They themselves bend without our help.
              1. iliq
                iliq 9 May 2013 00: 47
                -3
                Quote: dimon-media
                Rave. Europe will lose much more from these butts.

                are you comforting yourself like that? and the EU depends on supplies of Russian energy carriers by 30% - they will have nothing, and the light will not go out and it will not be cold in the houses.

                Quote: dimon-media
                Russia will be able to survive the freezing of its accounts in Western banks.

                I brought you only the first step.
                and then a full embargo - and of the squad, the Russian Federation is not able to feed itself ... it doesn’t corny produce as much food as it consumes.

                Quote: dimon-media
                Look at Europe, they have and so the whole economy is bursting at the seams.

                they all have a bunch, temporary difficulties in switching to the rules of the game that are common to the whole EU.

                Quote: dimon-media
                Cyprus, Greece, Italy can barely hold on.

                Well so it, you will not live on credit all the time - once you have to repay it (debt). the same with speculation and offshore zones.

                Quote: dimon-media
                The UK begins in a soft whisper to talk about leaving the eurozone

                uh, and when did England manage to enter the eurozone !?

                Quote: dimon-media
                Germany, the locomotive of the European economy, will look on our side of the barricades.

                which one? to Abramovich and Deripaska? I’m afraid to disappoint you, but Gazprom is already dragging on German vessels, they will oblige you to break it into several small companies, if it wants to stay on the German market.

                Quote: dimon-media
                What are we talking about? Butting in essence is no longer with anyone.

                is someone butting you? Does the Russian Federation represent at least some competition for the EU, for Germany?

                Quote: dimon-media
                They themselves bend without our help.

                it's five!
                1. Lopatov
                  Lopatov 9 May 2013 01: 09
                  +2
                  Quote: iliq
                  and then a full embargo - and of the squad, the Russian Federation is not able to feed itself ... it doesn’t corny produce as much food as it consumes.

                  Cool. Russia will reorient its flows and start supplying to the countries of Southeast Asia. And this "embargo" will be the end of the European economy. Hydrocarbons will rise in price sharply.
                  Well, food, it will only become easier. Russia is capable of providing itself fully. True, without frills.
    2. dimon-media
      dimon-media 8 May 2013 16: 00
      +1
      All that you have listed well, just tell me why so many German investments in the Nord Stream ?? What for?! Explain to me what is all this for? Why the gas scandal over Ukraine? Give me the facts that dollars from the gas and oil sold go to Abramovich’s account. Do not be unsubstantiated, aperture the facts and do not give out the wish for the reality!
      Go on, come on. I'm curious to read your nonsense.
      1. iliq
        iliq 8 May 2013 16: 25
        -4
        Quote: dimon-media
        All that you have listed well, just tell me why so many German investments in the Nord Stream ?? What for?! Explain to me what is all this for?

        diversification of supplies, increasing competition. bring down prices for Norwegians and eastern gas.

        Quote: dimon-media
        Why the gas scandal over Ukraine?

        did the EU have a scandal? the EU had no scandal. and the fact that the GDP was moving for the Russians - to the EU in no way.

        Quote: dimon-media
        Give me the facts that dollars from the gas and oil sold go to Abramovich’s account.

        http://www.gazprom.ru/investors/stock/
        1. dimon-media
          dimon-media 8 May 2013 16: 32
          +1
          Where about Abramovich ???
          1. iliq
            iliq 8 May 2013 16: 39
            -5
            This is a prefabricated image, because you are not excited about the name of Seledkin? laughing
            1. dimon-media
              dimon-media 8 May 2013 16: 44
              +1
              Judging by your idea of ​​the sale of oil and gas, all proceeds diverge from the accounts of individuals. Well, it means that the Russian economy is no longer considered a commodity, since its state budget has ceased to be formed from the sale of hydrocarbons. It just became a big business for individuals. Note that this is your conclusion.
    3. dimon-media
      dimon-media 8 May 2013 16: 01
      +1
      I suggest you warm your house and refuse heating and transfer to an electric car powered by solar energy. If you have a car at all ..
      1. iliq
        iliq 8 May 2013 16: 28
        -2
        Quote: dimon-media
        I suggest you warm your house

        this gives an economy of several thousand euros per year for apartments and from 5 thousand euros per year for houses.

        Quote: dimon-media
        transfer to an electric car powered by solar energy.

        Golf 7 with a flow rate of 5 liters of gasoline is not enough? then you can VW Up with a flow rate of 3,5 liters ...

        Quote: dimon-media
        powered by solar energy.

        plus solar panels on the roof, which almost completely cover the electricity needs of a single-family house ...
        1. Lopatov
          Lopatov 8 May 2013 16: 54
          +1
          Quote: iliq
          plus solar panels on the roof, which almost completely cover the electricity needs of a single-family house ...

          Do you know how many decades they pay off?
          1. iliq
            iliq 8 May 2013 17: 07
            -1
            Of course in the know. but here they give energy savings right away.
            1. Lopatov
              Lopatov 8 May 2013 17: 20
              +1
              This is if such investments are available to citizens. And therefore, even the leader of Germany, renewable energy sources provide only 5% of total consumption.
              1. iliq
                iliq 8 May 2013 17: 23
                -3
                Quote: Spade
                This is if such investments are available to citizens

                a state program was developed for this (loans and subsidies), and very many took advantage of it and use it.

                Quote: Spade
                And therefore, even the leader of Germany, renewable energy sources provide only 5% of total consumption.

                so far only 5%. I don’t think that the data for 2012 is on the network, but the boom of these systems began just a couple of years ago, and already today almost everywhere there are solar panels and windmills. and they continue to be installed.
                1. Lopatov
                  Lopatov 9 May 2013 01: 00
                  +1
                  And how many decades will it take "for now"? And if you remember about the ban on nuclear energy?
          2. Setrac
            Setrac 8 May 2013 22: 33
            +2
            Quote: Spade
            Do you know how many decades they pay off?

            They do not pay off, they fail before they pay off.
            1. iliq
              iliq 9 May 2013 00: 48
              -2
              is there any confirmation?
              and then stupid Germans put everything and put ...
              1. Aleks28
                Aleks28 9 May 2013 00: 57
                +1
                Quote: iliq
                is there any confirmation?
                and then stupid Germans put everything and put ...

                There is evidence: A bill has been submitted to the German parliament on the termination of subsidies for renewable energy sources for private individuals. If approved, then we'll see what the benefits will be. And what a lot of money the installation of all kinds of solar cells on the roof will cost.
                1. iliq.1
                  iliq.1 9 May 2013 17: 28
                  -1
                  Quote: Allex28
                  There is evidence: A bill has been submitted to the German parliament on the termination of subsidies for renewable energy sources for private individuals.

                  because the Chinese entered the market with dumping prices - and they don’t want to subsidize them.

                  Quote: Allex28
                  If they approve, then we’ll see what the benefits will be. And how much will it cost to install all kinds of solar cells on the roof.

                  and what, now it is not known !? stunned!
                2. urganov
                  urganov 9 May 2013 17: 30
                  +1
                  To be honest, the main idea of ​​stopping subsidies for private energy generation was too large amounts when paying money to private owners for supplying energy to public networks from their (private) sources of electricity. In Germany, a law was in effect that when supplying electricity to the public network from windmills and solar panels, the owners were transferred from the budget real money for the kilowatts actually produced. Now there are too many of them.
                  1. iliq.1
                    iliq.1 9 May 2013 18: 01
                    -1
                    all right. plus the "earnings" of energy companies that do not bring the reduction in energy prices to the end consumer.
              2. Setrac
                Setrac 9 May 2013 13: 17
                +1
                Quote: iliq
                is there any confirmation?
                and then stupid Germans put everything and put ...

                A marketing move to bring down the price of natural gas. Just like shale, it’s a propaganda weapon.
                1. iliq.1
                  iliq.1 9 May 2013 17: 29
                  -1
                  Quote: Setrac
                  A marketing move to bring down the price of natural gas.

                  Okst, what kind of nonsense?

                  Quote: Setrac
                  Just like shale, it’s a propaganda weapon.

                  and why the Germans are not being fought on them? aren't the marketing people right?
        2. Setrac
          Setrac 8 May 2013 22: 32
          0
          Quote: iliq
          this gives an economy of several thousand euros per year for apartments and from 5 thousand euros per year for houses.

          Do you want to say that before the houses were not insulated and "well, stupid" Europeans heated the street? This is probably why Europe has such a warm climate, well, nothing, right now the Germans will warm their houses and immediately get colder.
          1. iliq
            iliq 9 May 2013 00: 53
            0
            Quote: Setrac
            Do you want to say that before the houses were not insulated and "well, stupid" Europeans heated the street?

            that's what I wanted to say! modern standards of energy saving do not stand still, and houses built 50-40-30-20 years ago do not meet them. as well as heating and ventilation systems.

            Quote: Setrac
            This is probably why Europe has such a warm climate, well, nothing, right now the Germans will warm their homes and immediately get colder.

            laughing
  • sop.ov
    sop.ov 8 May 2013 16: 11
    +2
    Quote: Engineer Shchukin
    The price rises - when the supply decreases, and actually vice versa.

    This is true for goods of elastic demand (with low profitability and high cost inherent in the price) and then in the short term. Hydrocarbons do not belong to this category of goods, because they are goods of inelastic demand, their price is formed on the basis of competitive supply.
  • dimon-media
    dimon-media 8 May 2013 16: 30
    +1
    Quote: iliq
    diversification of supplies, increasing competition. bring down prices for Norwegians and eastern gas.

    Oh oh ?? And the price of gas has fallen? As it was, it remained so. Where is diversification ???
  • iliq
    iliq 8 May 2013 16: 43
    -4
    Quote: dimon-media
    Oh oh ?? And the price of gas has fallen?

    or "didn't jump"?

    Quote: dimon-media
    As it was, it remained so.

    and this despite the circus of the Russian Federation. Ukraine, and all sorts of war in Libya.

    Quote: dimon-media
    Where is diversification ???

    me what educational program to carry out?
    1. dimon-media
      dimon-media 8 May 2013 17: 50
      +2
      Well, how about a wall of peas)) how many of you here with Bolotnaya. Norway is digging further and further north in search of gas, while Germany, its main consumer, is dancing with a tambourine in search of alternative energy sources. you are trying to prove something to me contradicting yourself. I see no logic in your words. Do you yourself believe that windmills and solar panels can cover the needs of the entire population by replacing hydrocarbons? Answer honestly. Why are the "advanced" Japanese not doing the same and their nuclear power plants are dangerously close to cities (Fukushima, for example) when they could be replaced by something else? Why are these risks?
      With your lips, the whole world would have lived without hydrocarbons for a long time, saving billions of dollars and not polluting the environment.
      1. iliq
        iliq 8 May 2013 18: 06
        -3
        Quote: dimon-media
        Well, how about peas on the wall)) how many of you here are with Bolotnaya.

        Oh, you’ve been to the swamp, too, and you know everyone in person !? stunned!

        Quote: dimon-media
        Germany, its main consumer is dancing with a tambourine in search of alternative energy sources

        it's five!
        maybe some are able to think and plan not only for the next couple of years?

        Quote: dimon-media
        Do you yourself believe that windmills and solar panels will be able to cover the needs of the entire population by replacing hydrocarbons? Answer honestly.

        Of course they can. along with the development of energy-saving technologies.

        Quote: dimon-media
        Why are the "advanced" Japanese not doing the same and their nuclear power plants are dangerously close to cities (Fukushima, for example) when they could be replaced by something else?

        and it’s too late for them to do anything - the NPP is nowhere to go ... and yes, they just dump the solution of problems with nuclear energy (and waste) for hundreds and thousands of generations of their descendants.

        Quote: dimon-media
        With your lips, the whole world would have lived without hydrocarbons for a long time, saving billions of dollars and not polluting the environment.

        everything’s going to this - the breakthrough of technologies in this area over the past years is simply enormous, you see in 10 years the level of energy consumption will be half of the current one.
        1. Lopatov
          Lopatov 9 May 2013 01: 12
          +2
          Quote: iliq
          it's five!
          maybe some are able to think and plan not only for the next couple of years?

          Germans? To plan?
          Fukushima-Ban on nuclear power-jerky movements "where to find a replacement."

          And then the "green" are gaining strength. Brown coal is prohibited, hydropower is prohibited, hydrocarbons are prohibited. Only renewable, and at the expense of grateful citizens.
          1. Aleks28
            Aleks28 9 May 2013 01: 23
            +1
            Quote: Spade
            Germans? To plan?

            Yes, here from one idiocy to stop nuclear power plants you can get off the coils. All over the world, plants produce energy, only in Germany they consume belay Take, and stop workstations, and now the next 20-30 years need energy for the cooling and safety systems fool Yes, a "far-sighted" policy, you can't say anything.
            1. Lopatov
              Lopatov 9 May 2013 02: 06
              +1
              There is an ambush there. I wonder how it will end.
            2. iliq.1
              iliq.1 9 May 2013 12: 20
              -2
              Quote: Allex28
              Take, and stop workstations, and now the next 20-30 years need energy for the cooling and safety systems

              Yes, a "far-sighted" policy, you can't say anything

              Lopatov You see, as I said - there are some who think a little longer than a feather years ahead. this comrade does not know that when a nuclear power plant is shut down after a deadline, everything must be done the same - but after 20-30 years, plus the radioactive waste that will accumulate during this time.
          2. iliq.1
            iliq.1 9 May 2013 12: 15
            -1
            Quote: Spade
            Germans? To plan?
            Fukushima-Ban on nuclear power-jerky movements "where to find a replacement."

            Fukushima is just the last straw in a decades-long process.
            "replacement" has also been sought for a long time.

            Quote: Spade
            And then the "green" are gaining strength.

            "green" as pertia, or awareness of citizens that in their own excrement will live not only they, but also their daaal descendants?

            Quote: Spade
            Only renewable, and at the expense of grateful citizens.

            There is always a choice - to pay for a clean environment, or to pay for medicines. with an average lifespan of 80+ the solution is obvious, right?
      2. urganov
        urganov 9 May 2013 17: 42
        +1
        private traders have long been ready to cover their needs with renewable energy sources, although with the appropriate credit policies of banks or the state, this is problematic, only for their money. But the industry is not ready to invest in its energy supply with a return on financial investments with a return horizon of 10 - 25 years, in connection with the existing financial system.
        1. iliq.1
          iliq.1 9 May 2013 18: 03
          -1
          Quote: urganov
          . But the industry is not ready to invest in its energy supply with a return on financial investments with a return horizon of 10 - 25 years,

          so they also receive subsidies for this, what for do they need it !?
          energy is cheaper for industry than for individuals - who will refuse it?
    2. dimon-media
      dimon-media 8 May 2013 17: 54
      +3
      I do not understand this new-fangled party terminology and basically do not want to let these words into my vocabulary. In the Russian language there are a lot of words, including synonyms, to find the right definition or to express oneself clearly. Speak Russian and without any educational programs. Ugh damn .. disgusting.
  • datur
    datur 8 May 2013 22: 20
    +1
    dimon-media -Well, it's like- who is not with us - he is against us !!! wink
  • datur
    datur 9 May 2013 08: 40
    0
    who do not like BRICS - those are all in CYPRUS !! EU is waiting for them all !!
  • misterwulf
    misterwulf 9 May 2013 22: 57
    0
    Interesting, but not relevant
  • black
    black 10 May 2013 15: 09
    0
    Citizens! Cum snot chewing. Asses Bush, Obama's legs. The question is simple. Or Russian and Chinese brothers forever, bhai, bhai. Dollar on the side, calmly earn loot and follow our interests. Or, as civilized androgens, we listen to Western experts who are pursuing their own interests, and not the interests of national economies. And slowly and steadily together with the EU and the USA in the back of the third. Mira.http: //www.odnoklassniki.ru/profile/517504962511- view for general development. Funny video.