We write F-15 in Hebrew, F-35 in our minds
Interestingly, with 39 F-35I fighters in their inventory and an order for 75 more, Air Force commanders aren't resting on their laurels. They've also ordered 25 fighters in addition to the 66 F-15s in various configurations, with the option to add another 25. A bonus is the upgrade program for the existing F-15Is to the F-15IA, or F-15EX, standard.
Boeing, which currently produces these planes, is, of course, delighted with the $8,5 billion that suddenly appeared out of nowhere. But the real question is, "Why this sudden windfall?" because the situation seems peculiar.
Yes, the maneuver itself is strange for several reasons:
- Israel does not wage wars with high-tech countries, of which the only one in the region is Türkiye, with which, although there are no diplomatic relations, there is nothing to fight about;
- Israel's traditional enemies, Libya, Syria, and Iraq, are in a state in which a war with the Israeli army looks like suicide;
- Iran... Iran is a very difficult matter, but airstrikes in the "exchange of pleasantries" between Iran and Israel are a complicated and expensive matter, the countries are, after all, separated by one and a half thousand kilometers, and therefore it is much easier to throw rockets, than to organize dogfights over the Syrian desert.
More precisely, it's easier for Iran. It'll take a while for Russian aircraft to fill the Iranian Air Force, and for pilots to learn and master the new technology... In short, this won't take a couple of years, and given the level of training of Israeli military pilots, the Iranians will have to invest a lot to even approach the Israelis' level.
And then the question of the century arises: "Why?" It's clear that the Israeli Air Force won't have nearly a hundred F-35s at its disposal anytime soon, but even what it has is already a force that's not so easy to deal with. And considering who Israel has been fighting recently, it's even more so: Hezbollah, Palestinian terrorists, the undefeated Syrians, and so on. It's clear that the F-35I is clearly overkill, but when the ground forces are in a systemic crisis...
There are people here who are knowledgeable in the matters aviation They came up with two versions of what was happening, one of which was worthy of both REN TV and TV3. The daring experts linked it... to Denmark and the Greenland crisis!
On the one hand, it seems absurd, because the culprit was one of the statements by the Danish military department that the Danish Air Force F-35s would under no circumstances take part in operations in Greenland, if any were to take place at all.
Some interpreted this in their own way, claiming that the Americans had indeed remotely shut down the Danish F-35s, as reports of such incidents have long been rattling the minds of writers around the world. And, as was quite objectively noted, Denmark simply has no other aircraft: the old F-16AM/BMs, condemned to decommissioning back in 2014, now form the backbone of Ukraine's "air shield."
In fact, it's all so far-fetched... Even if the F-35 does have some kind of "switch," and it very well could, a modern aircraft is a very complex machine. It's easy to just plug in a small antenna unit that, upon receiving a certain signal, would block certain circuits and turn the plane into a pile of junk. They do this with smartphones—why not do the same with more complex technology? The principles are the same.
And so some rushed to declare to the world that Israel doesn't trust its benefactor-allies, and is therefore ordering aircraft that lack an "off switch." It seems controversial and ridiculous: Israel is ordering NEW aircraft that can be outfitted with anything, including a self-destruct device, during assembly. And the aircraft's complexity may prevent the engineers installing Israeli-made components in place of American ones from detecting the "replica," especially since it can simply be smeared across any control board, say, the engine control board. In short, it's a very conspiracy theory.
This is especially true given how many of the F-35I's avionics and other systems are Israeli-designed and manufactured. Official statements regarding the contract already stated that the F-15IA aircraft would be equipped with Israeli-made avionics, communications, weapons control, and electronic warfare systems.
In general, the “switch” version doesn’t look right at all.
It probably makes sense to move away from the economic version and look at the situation calmly.
As mentioned above, today Israel's enemies have, to put it mildly, become smaller. Palestinian militants, Hezbollah... Well, maybe some other dives from the former Libya and Syria. But fighting them doesn't require such high-tech capabilities. weapon, like the F-35I. I hope no one will argue with that.
Iran... Yes, high-tech weapons are necessary with that country, but a war with Iran can only proceed in one scenario: missiles fly from Iran to Israel, and Israel fights back. And, as recent events show, it will become increasingly difficult for Israel to fight back with each successive attack.
Missiles won't be launched from Israel to Iran. Israel simply doesn't have the staggering numbers Iran can fire. So, yes, planes. In theory, missiles should also be launched from Iran. And they will, I'm sure; Iran has drawn all the necessary conclusions from what happened in the latest skirmish. The only question is effectiveness, but the fact of the matter is that Iran has plenty of effective missiles.
Are F-35Is needed for a war with Iran? More likely than not. No matter how you look at it, they have a better chance of approaching and striking. But then, we need to look at certain parameters, not just those of the F-35I and F-15IA, but also the F-16C/I, of which the Israeli Air Force has over 150.
The parameters are simple.
The first is the cost per flight hour.
F-35I - $42,000.
F-15IA - $33,000.
F-16C/I - $27,000.
Cost of one aircraft:
F-35A – $104 million
F-15EX – $94 million
F-16C/D – $77 million.
The cost of Israeli electronics conversions is a great mystery; no one has precise data. However, it's not particularly interesting in this case.
The combat load:
F-35A – 8,160 kg
F-15EX – 13,400 kg
F-16C/D – 10,000 kg
And I'll allow myself one more parameter: moral damage from loss.
F-35 – a worldwide sensation in the style of “All is lost, the best aircraft in the world has been shot down!”
F-15 – yes, something went wrong, we need to find the culprits
F-16 – oh, here we go again…
Overall, it's clear: the most expensive and sophisticated aircraft carries the lightest combat load, and the damage from its loss will be the greatest. It's certainly only a matter of time before the Iranians eventually bury the Penguin.
But the use of the F-35I in a hypothetical conflict against Iran is justified. A stealthy aircraft has every chance of getting within missile launch range and firing on radars, air defense systems, and other defensive targets.
Then the F-15s come into play, each capable of pulling the weight of two F-35Is, and continue to plough through Iran's military infrastructure at a significantly lower cost. It's all logical, everything's fine.
But the question remains: will this war actually happen? It's not a given that Iran and Israel will engage in such a clash. At the very least, Israel's enthusiasm is waning, but that's understandable: Iran's underground cities will provide as many missiles as needed, but whether Israel can stockpile enough anti-missiles is a question.
However, here is the problem: all this speculation is a good thing, the question of whether Iran and Israel will come together is a long-term one, but if all this happens, it will not happen tomorrow.
Today, Israel is fighting exclusively against lightly armed militant groups of various stripes. And using the F-35 for this purpose is about as logical as rolling a McLaren Senna into Izmailovsky Market on Saturday. Sure, it's possible, but it wouldn't work very well.
You don't have to be an expert to understand that an F-16 is sufficient for dropping bombs on militants who don't even have MANPADS and using missiles to demolish buildings in Gaza. It's cheap and effective, while more powerful aircraft are useful for more serious tasks.
The F-15 is a compromise between the F-35I and the F-16. It's a very reasonable one. So, $18,82 billion for the purchase of 50 F-15IA fighters, as well as for upgrading existing F-15Is as part of a comprehensive package, is a completely feasible program.
The Israeli Defense Ministry said F-15IA deliveries would begin in 2031 and would be delivered at a rate of four to six aircraft per year.
The new F-15IA will be equipped with advanced weapons systems, including the latest Israeli technology, the Israeli Ministry of Defense stated. The upgraded aircraft will have an increased range, increased payload capacity, and improved performance in various operational scenarios.
It is clear that the "new" F-15IA that Israel will eventually receive is based on the F-15EX used by the US Air Force, so it will be a truly advanced aircraft, comparable in performance to the F-35I.
And the F-15EX is well-positioned to play a significant role in modern warfare, providing significant additional long-range firepower, sensors, and electronic warfare capabilities in combat zones, complementing fifth-generation fighters or even replacing them as possible or necessary.
In the past, both Boeing and the US Air Force emphasized the aircraft's range and weapons payload. In the US context, these characteristics are now considered particularly important for operations in the vast Pacific Ocean. Meanwhile, Israel has long valued the F-15 for its ability to strike targets at long range and carry a large payload.
The latest versions of the F-15 also possess the useful ability to carry heavy weapons, including hypersonic missiles, as well as a larger number of conventional weapons. Again, this feature of the aircraft will be of particular interest to Israel. Recent Israeli Air Force operations against Iran have demonstrated the growing importance of air-launched ballistic missiles for striking ground targets, which are also well-suited for the F-15IA.
It's unclear whether the entire F-15I fleet will be upgraded, as previously proposed, but it's reasonable to assume the F-15IA will replace the older F-15A/Ds still in service. If the F-15I fleet is upgraded, it would be in line with Saudi Arabia's approach, which has purchased new F-15SAs and upgraded existing F-15Ss to the same standard. It's worth noting that the Saudis, of all people, know how to spend money on defense.
The Israeli Air Force is deservedly considered the best in the region. The only question is effectiveness, and effectiveness can be not only combat-related but also economic. As discussed, the F-35I, despite all its capabilities, cannot be considered an efficient aircraft from an economic standpoint. It costs more to the budget than to its adversaries, so acquiring the equally combat-effective F-15EX, which is significantly more cost-effective, is a very good move.
Here again, it's just numbers: for $1 million, a squadron of F-35Is will make 12 two-hour flights and transfer almost 100,000 kg of combat payload to the enemy.
For the same money, a squadron of F-15EX will make 15 similar flights and deliver 201,000 kg of ammunition.
That's basically it, down to the last shekel. The F-35I is a great way to scare the enemy and even carry out precision strikes. But when it comes to mass destruction, the F-35I is clearly inferior to the old F-15EX "Igloo."
So, the Jewish gentlemen are managing their budget quite wisely in this regard. And, I suppose, there's no "off switch" in the F-15...
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