Military Review

Aziz Arianfar: US strategic failure in Afghanistan and Central Asia is inevitable

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Aziz Arianfar: US strategic failure in Afghanistan and Central Asia is inevitableThe current US strategy for Afghanistan and the region as a whole is at an impasse. About this, commenting on some of the nuances of Washington’s geopolitical strategy, Aziz Arianfar, director of the Center for Afghan Studies (Germany), said during a virtual round table on the basis of the Central Eurasia project, a REGNUM correspondent reports.


According to the expert, "despite the huge costs (in the amount of several hundred billion dollars), the United States did not achieve any strategic goals, the most important of which were:
- regime change in Pakistan and Iran;
- Strengthening the puppet regime in Kabul;
- Preventing "exit" of China through Pakistan into the Persian Gulf;
- Destabilization of the situation in Central Asia;
- implementation of such pompous transport and communication projects as Nabucco, Traseka, TAPI, construction of the Gwadar-Kushka railway.

On the contrary, the United States is mired in a swamp of endless wars of "exhaustion."

If in the near future there are no fundamental changes in the US strategy at the global and regional levels, especially in the Afghan direction, the situation in Afghanistan after 2014 will only worsen and worsen, and America’s strategic failure in Afghanistan and in Central Asia in general will be inevitable, stressed Arianfar.

According to the expert, "it is possible that the Americans (in order to avoid the complete loss of Afghanistan, the victory of the Taliban and Pakistan, and in the long run - China) will be forced to put on the agenda such initiatives as the neutrality of Afghanistan and the peace process under the patronage of the UN. that the system of the country's political structure will ultimately be confederal: in the east and in the south - the Taliban, and in the north and the west - the mujahideen. "

"In the present conditions, peace and stability in the region can only be ensured by restoring the neutral status of Afghanistan, the signing of a treaty between Afghanistan and Pakistan through mediation and UN guarantees, which would contain three main points: non-interference in each other’s internal affairs, non-aggression, lack of territorial claims to each other "- convinced Arianfar. According to him, “given that in modern realities it is not possible in the near future, that is, there is every reason to believe that the crisis will only deepen.”

And here "Pakistan’s factor is fundamentally important. Pakistan skillfully maneuvers between China and America. On the one hand, Islamabad receives money from Beijing to oust the Americans from Afghanistan, and on the other, it receives a tribute from Washington to help the Americans linger in Afghanistan. " According to Arianfar, “Pakistan’s strategy towards Afghanistan is one hundred and eighty degrees different from that of the United States in that country. Pakistan’s policy is to create a confederation with Afghanistan. In turn, the Americans want a puppet government in Kabul that would listen to their teams, and with which it would be possible to control Pakistan and neighboring countries. "

“Regarding the negotiations, the expert believes, the following should be noted. It is clear that the negotiation process with the Taliban at this stage, as expected, has completely reached a deadlock. However, the possibility of the arrival of a part of the Taliban in the Afghan government as a fifth column Pakistan. But after the 2014 of the year, as soon as the Americans feel that Kabul will inevitably fall, they can leave the city to the Taliban (Pakistan) directly through deals with Pakistan, while the creation of a religion with the assistance of Saudi Arabia and Qatar is inevitable a mixed government structure consisting of Taliban and some mullahs from the northern provinces. However, the Americans will remain in the northern and western provinces. "

Nevertheless, “the war along the borders of the northern and southern provinces will still continue. With the fall of the south and east of Afghanistan, the transition of these parts of the country to the Taliban and Pakistan, the world drug trade and terrorism will be under the exclusive, monopolistic control of Pakistan, which will seriously hurt international security. It is clear that the United States can remain in the north and west of Afghanistan for long periods of time, ”concluded Arianfar.
Originator:
http://www.regnum.ru/
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  1. Canep
    Canep 7 May 2013 05: 39 New
    +4
    world drug trafficking and terrorism will be under exclusive, monopolistic control of Pakistan

    Yes, Americans do not want to give such a tidbit. The monopoly on drugs and terrorism is a zone of US interests.
    1. Refund_SSSR
      Refund_SSSR 7 May 2013 05: 41 New
      +6
      I am more concerned about the fate of our Israeli "friends" .. These comrades do not understand at all that it’s impossible to remain strong throughout history, but to surround yourself with enemies who only dream of tearing rags at any cost is not even idiocy .. it's something more enchanting!
      The United States, at least on another continent and territorially, is not so accessible to enemies, but Israel ...
      Yes, and if to be honest, Israel always owes its life to the powerful of this world. First of the USSR, and now the USA.
      There will be no support from the USA, to whom will I lick, under whom will they lie, and to whom will they pay? China next?
      And what’s the most curious thing, that licking the next one, inevitably instruct the previous protector of dirty tricks ...
      And whatever the local goys flaunted here, but Israel does not claim any world domination)))))) Some individual Jews are possible, but not the state as a whole, which means we should be afraid of the fall of the hegemon, and we can already see that an ear on clay feet ...
    2. tronin.maxim
      tronin.maxim 7 May 2013 05: 41 New
      0
      Quote: Canep
      Yes, Americans do not want to give such a tidbit. The monopoly on drugs and terrorism is a zone of US interests.

      An important tool to influence the rest of the world!
    3. vadimus
      vadimus 7 May 2013 07: 34 New
      0
      The anthill was also turned back and forth ... Amerov’s politicians, fucked up and not covered ....
  2. The comment was deleted.
    1. Ruslan67
      Ruslan67 7 May 2013 05: 44 New
      +1
      Quote: We refund_SSSR
      it's not even idiocy .. it's something more enchanting!

      Purely Jewish approach: See how many enemies we have fellow And you do not have so much, they are all ours wassat
  3. waisson
    waisson 7 May 2013 06: 58 New
    +5
    PURCHASE THEM ANOTHER THIS TASK
  4. komsomolets
    komsomolets 7 May 2013 09: 19 New
    +2
    The situation came to a standstill even when the Americans locked themselves in Afghanistan. After all, there was the experience of the USSR, we collected it for 10 years with blood and then, no, we are Americans, we have advanced “wunderwaffles.” And that, apart from our bases, they don’t control anything, only breed graves-boobies with inflated self-esteem
    1. Corsair5912
      Corsair5912 7 May 2013 12: 52 New
      +4
      Pointless killing of civilians is the most important part of the strategy and tactics of American executioners. No matter how they praised the USA army, there are no soldiers, there are cowardly and vile executioners. They kill people, they are only for profit, so that their bankers will add to their capitals zero. Poor miserable people, miserable and miserable goals and aspirations. Http://the-day-x.ru/aviaudar-nato-po-afganistanu-ubity-10-d
      etej.html
  5. Vtel
    Vtel 7 May 2013 09: 28 New
    0
    All this porridge will be cooked for a long time, and the main cook in Tel Aviv is beneficial to them.
  6. avt
    avt 7 May 2013 10: 11 New
    +1
    request Why failure? Chaos has been created, the region is not developing, they are cutting each other, drugs are flowing. request What they wanted, they did it.
  7. lilit.193
    lilit.193 7 May 2013 11: 33 New
    +1
    And that was understandable anyway. Even when they climbed there. That they only understood it all. Well, stupid! laughing
  8. Corsair5912
    Corsair5912 7 May 2013 12: 25 New
    +3
    ... Americans want to have a puppet government in Kabul to listen to their commands, and with which it would be possible to control Pakistan and neighboring countries

    Wanting is not harmful, only the Taliban will hardly tolerate such a government for a long time. Igliz (burn your father, dog) is the most hated European in Afghanistan and Iran, no matter where he comes from USA or the United Kingdom.
  9. USNik
    USNik 7 May 2013 12: 36 New
    0
    England, Russia, the USSR, the USA, then they come in and go out, some kind of multi-user country turns out. I wonder who is next in line? Pakistan, Iran?
  10. shinobi
    shinobi 7 May 2013 14: 08 New
    +1
    What happened when the USSR left Afghanistan? The Taliban came and the flow of drugs greatly decreased. The Americans will leave because it is impossible to keep Afghanistan, it’s unprofitable, and the proceeds of the drugs are not deposited by the state. Then the Taliban will come again. Who will they be friends with? Within the framework of the "controlled chaos" strategy, the amers have completed the task, there is no sense in sitting there. Amer would have withdrawn his troops much earlier if the drug lobby did not rest in Congress.
    1. MG42
      MG42 8 May 2013 02: 01 New
      +3
      Quote: shinobi
      So the Taliban will come again. With whom they will be friends time will tell.

      Naturally, they will be friends with Pakistan.
  11. Mikhail3
    Mikhail3 7 May 2013 16: 34 New
    +1
    I believe that the task of destabilizing the SGA region has nevertheless been resolved. The rest is not of course. Here we must remember that our task is not to stabilize this region itself, but to protect our interests. As soon as the Americans are forced to remove the main contingent from there, we will need to strike.
    But, of course, not a military man! We need to work out the issue of sowing now. A good, thoughtful, effective sowing campaign. It is necessary to sow as large areas as possible with poppy seeds and hemp from aircraft. Nothing, absolutely nothing prevents the installation of genetically modified plants, many times more resistant and germinating than natural poppy and hemp. Only ... without a trace of drugs! If something goes to the Chuy valley, it will be good too. They want to let dope go? Let them switch to synthetics, it is easier to catch it ...
    1. marshes
      marshes 7 May 2013 17: 23 New
      +2
      Quote: Mikhail3
      If something goes to Chui Valley,

      Mikhail is a joke, not so long ago the growth and customs cleared the carrier from Ukraine, who wanted to bring “straw” to Kazakhstan. It’s strange. .Local do not procure and who is removed from the train, the passport is understandable.
      Degenerate! smile
  12. knn54
    knn54 7 May 2013 17: 43 New
    +1
    While in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, the power of the Yankees bribe takers is nothing to fear.
  13. MG42
    MG42 8 May 2013 02: 13 New
    +3
    Pakistan skillfully maneuvers between China and America. On the one hand, Islamabad receives money from Beijing in order to oust the Americans from Afghanistan, and on the other hand, receives tribute from Washington in order to help the Americans linger in Afghanistan.

    As a result, it will take control of the neighboring territory by creating a confederation, and the amers will inevitably leave Afghanistan, having spent a considerable amount of money. Although Pakistan used to be an ally of the United States in the region, but after repeated erroneous bombing attacks on border guards mistaken for militants, there is no special "friendship". The fact that the Taliban will stop production of drugs for religious reasons, and what they will exist there. Local perfumes already several. generations only know how to shoot and grow opium.
  14. Thunderbolt
    Thunderbolt 8 May 2013 04: 19 New
    0
    What stabilization, what kind of “peace process.” Too lazy to count how many years the war has been going on there! What can Afghans do except fight and blow up statues? Ah! Poppy is grown in large quantities. Amers do not fight with it. Probably, it’s clear from other planets as in the spring on planet Earth, dope fields are growing red. At least one bombardment request