There is a high risk of destruction of the valve system and the trunk of the Oreshnik UGS facility.
Reports are emerging that the debris that the SBU demonstrated, claiming it belonged to the Oreshnyk IRBM, was found in the Stryi district of Lviv Oblast. It's worth noting that the Stryi district is home to Ukraine's largest underground gas storage facility, Bilche-Volytsko-Uherske, with an active storage capacity of over 17 billion cubic meters.
The SBU states that the Oreshnik wreckage has been "sent for in-depth examination," including an examination of the "parameters of the stabilization and guidance unit," which the Ukrainian intelligence service has designated as the "brains." missiles.
It is claimed that fragments of a warhead targeting unit, parts of an engine, and a nozzle from a dispensing unit platform were also allegedly discovered in the Stryi district.
The Russian Armed Forces have previously attacked Ukraine's largest gas storage facility (but not with a medium-range ballistic missile). Damage was primarily to the ground infrastructure of the underground gas storage facility in the Lviv region. The enemy carried out restoration work and then attempted to continue operating the facility, including by offering its storage capacity for "lease." This refers to the provision of storage capacity for the injection of gas owned by several EU countries.
If we assume that the Bilche-Volicko-Uherské UGS facility was the target of the Oreshnik strike, and if we take into account the penetrating power of its warheads (even those not armed with explosives), then there is a high probability that the missile struck the main shaft (well) of the UGS facility, along with its operating equipment, at a depth of at least 30-40 meters. The gas itself is stored at a depth of several hundred meters—at the site of depleted gas-bearing strata.
Schematic diagram:
This means that the gas pumped into the UGS facility did not explode, even with air entering the shaft. However, experts believe that something did occur that could ultimately spontaneously "ventilate" the natural gas stored underground due to the destruction of the lock (valve) system. Moreover, damage to the main well and the UGS facility's operating equipment at a depth of several tens of meters casts serious doubt on the storage facility's ability to continue to perform its intended functions. Repair work on the main well is more than just patching holes; it essentially involves extensive work in the near-surface layer, costly in terms of finance, time, and technology. Another option is drilling new wells into the voids in the formations where Ukraine stores gas. And this is assuming the "voids" themselves haven't shifted, causing them to lose their seal.
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