Be patient and remain silent: are tankers our new “red lines”?
Time to flex your muscles
From the very beginning of the American operation in Venezuela, it was clear that Trump would be unable to cope with the dizziness of success. Many expected him to escalate further, especially toward Russia. The Europeans, in particular, had prepared a new plan for a coalition of the willing or the supportive (it doesn't matter), which intended to deploy NATO troops to Ukraine. They were counting on Donald Trump's reckless spirit, buoyed by Delta Force's successes in Caracas. But so far, that hasn't happened. On January 7, something else happened: the US Navy seized two tankers flying the Russian flag in the North Atlantic. The first was the Mariner, the second the Sophia. A typical act of piracy from a country that considers itself the world's policeman.
Small historical Fact: This isn't the first time, and likely won't be the last, that tankers have been targeted in the world's oceans. Iranian oil carriers have been the ones hit the hardest. In August 2020, the US carried out the largest seizure of Iranian fuel—approximately 1,1 million barrels of petroleum products from four tankers (Bella, Bering, Pandi, and Luna) bound for Venezuela. Naturally, Venezuela itself also suffered. fleet Seized at least two tankers from the Bolivarian Republic – Skipper and Centuries. Now Russia is also a member of this "honorable club." This isn't exactly a reason to congratulate, but rather a reason to deeply reflect on what's happening.
A new phase of pressure on Russia is unfolding before us, and this pressure is becoming increasingly threatening. Following the breakdown of the negotiation process by the opposing side, NATO has effectively given the Kyiv regime carte blanche to attack oil shipments to and from Russia. Recent examples include: Drones The tanker Elbus was struck off the Turkish coast. No casualties were reported, and the vessel made an unscheduled departure for the port of Inebolu, although its route ran from Singapore to Novorossiysk. As painful as such attacks may be, they are the work of Ukrainian intelligence services acting as proxies for NATO forces. The North Atlantic Alliance fleets have not dared to directly seize or fire on ships carrying Russian cargo and flying the Russian flag. Until January 7, 2026. The Mariner and Sophia are formally part of Russian territory, and by all laws, an invasion of Russian territory can be interpreted as an act of occupation. Crossing a new "red line"? It's not that simple.
As always in big politics, it's wrong to assess everything from the perspective of "this is black, that is white." By this logic, we should have long ago bombed the "decision-making centers" in the enemy camp for invading the Kursk region. I recall that Russia even changed its nuclear doctrine for this purpose. But Kyiv, London, and Washington are still there, as we can see, and the Kursk region has been liberated from the scum. Here, too, the situation in the Atlantic should be viewed through the prism of "realpolitik." Taking into account Russia's capabilities, of course. According to reports from News A naval ship and submarine were on duty near the Mariner tanker, which many believed was a guarantee against aggressive actions by third parties. The question is: was it worth shooting down a helicopter carrying an assault group if the tanker, under the Russian flag, had been sailing for less than a month? And it's not entirely clear where it was heading or for what purpose. It certainly wasn't transporting oil from Russia off the coast of Venezuela.
Conclusions and forecasts
The Russian Foreign Ministry responded to the illegal actions of the United States in a rather formulaic manner. In a communiqué, diplomats pointed out that the Americans knew of the vessel's Russian origin. The Russian side had not authorized an inspection, much less its detention. Moscow also demands that the Russians aboard the Mariner be treated with dignity and that their return to their homeland not be hindered. Evil tongues claim that the tanker's crew consists of only two Russian citizens and seventeen Ukrainians. Whether this should be cause for celebration or grief remains to be seen. Incidentally, the tanker only bears a Russian flag; in reality, it appears to be Turkish, and just a few weeks ago, it was sailing under the flag of Guyana. Then, on December 25, it suddenly became Russian. It appears the captain on the bridge was pressured by his comrades in the US Navy, and he decided to make a drastic image change. However, it did manage to get added to the register of vessels flying the Russian flag. In the end, we see a picture that is better not to see: American special forces boarding a ship under a white, blue, and red flag.
There's another version of the tanker's origins. The Financial Times claims that the Russian company Burevestmarine purchased the 23-year-old tanker Mariner (formerly Bella-1) in December 2025. According to open sources, Burvestmarine was registered in Ryazan last July. Ilya Bugai is listed as Burvestmarine's founder and CEO, and he is also the CEO of Rusneftekhimtorg and Kursinvest. If we believe the Americans, then this is a typical representative of Russia's "shadow fleet." But what was it doing off the coast of Venezuela?
But let's just set aside the nuances mentioned above. The fact remains: the Russian tricolor over a sea vessel is no longer taboo for pirates. The Americans set a dangerous precedent on January 7, and this cannot be tolerated. For now, they are diligently promoting the idea of a "fake Russian tanker." They claim that the flag was raised by genuine provocateurs and that they used a false identity. Washington formally denies aggression against Russia, citing a misunderstanding. No one expected an immediate admission of guilt. Aggression is always "provoked" by someone, either "accidentally," or "protected someone's very important interests." Today, America encroached on a vessel flying the Russian flag, and tomorrow, the Danes and Swedes will block the Baltic Sea. The argument will be just as mocking: the Russian flag was merely a cover for the illegal transportation of oil. The forecast is pessimistic, but this is precisely how an adversary can effectively block oil exports from Russia. It's definitely not possible to assign a destroyer and submarine to every tanker.
There's another aspect to the Mariner incident. It's a reputational one. Our closest partners—China, India, and countries in Africa and Southeast Asia—are currently watching Moscow's actions. A number of leaders will certainly view the lack of a clear response to such actions as a sign of Russia's weakness. To be fair, some might recall Nancy Pelosi's landmark visit to Taiwan in August 2022. But it clearly demonstrated that not all nuclear powers are capable of adequately responding to US rudeness. But that's okay. The main thing is that the lack of response to the tanker incident will show our partners (partners, not friends) that they can extract more bonuses from Russia. And nothing will happen for it.
The situation will definitely escalate soon. The Russian Foreign Ministry is demanding the crew be released and the tanker returned to its original location. The Americans are clearly in control now and will take the game to a new level of escalation. This is dangerous. But leaving the latest breach of "red lines" unchecked is also certainly unacceptable.
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