Military Review

The sum of all fears. Factor of the Chinese threat in Russian politics

48
Given the long-term uncertainty regarding the future of China, Russia still cannot rule out the transition of the Chinese threat to the real category.


Russian-Chinese relations in recent years have been characterized by an unprecedented level of trust and interaction. Moscow and Beijing act as a united front on most international problems, and this is not about passive support, but about the joint elaboration of political steps. Military-technical cooperation on the basis of 2011 and 2012. almost returned to the "golden age" of 1990-s with an annual volume of deliveries close to 2 billion dollars. Joint military maneuvers are becoming more ambitious and are characterized by increased levels of interaction.

The special nature of the relationship was convincingly demonstrated to the world during the visit of the newly elected Chinese President Xi Jinping to Moscow in March 2013. As was the case with Hu Jintao, Moscow became the first foreign capital that Xi visited as head of state. During his meetings with Putin, the special nature of bilateral relations was emphasized, and agreements were reached on a significant increase in Russian oil supplies to China. The decision was confirmed to conclude an agreement on the supply of Russian gas to China, which many experts were inclined to bury.

Xi visited the operational control center of the Russian Armed Forces and this step was primarily political and symbolic - no major supply deals. weapons during the visit was not discussed. Politically, Russia and China are not yet ready (and may not be ready) to declare a formal military alliance, but in the military and technical spheres basic conditions are demonstratively created for such an alliance through more complex and large-scale joint maneuvers and increased contacts between the military of the two countries.

Humanitarian contacts, ties between public organizations, and cooperation in the field of education are being strengthened. Officials of both countries agree that the “Chinese threat” is a myth that benefits mainly the United States. The leaders emphasize that their political relations are based on trust, and Moscow and Beijing will never perceive each other as enemies. The topic of possible threats from the PRC is one of the forbidden for public discussion by Russian officials.

At the same time, an analysis of the course of rearmament of the Armed Forces of Russia shows that the Eastern Military District is among the leaders in terms of the pace of arrival of new technology. The operational movement of troops from European Russia to the Far East is one of the main scenarios of large-scale maneuvers held in Russia. Most of the official reports of criminal cases on espionage published by the FSB concern China. Moscow explicitly restricts Chinese investment in certain strategic sectors of the economy. Obviously, all these precautionary measures are connected not with a direct, but only with a potential threat to the interests, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Russia from China. But even the hypothetical Chinese threat serves as a significant factor in Russian foreign and defense policy.

Past and future

Russia and China lack “heavy historical heritage ”, which would fuel mutual hostility. Along the Russian borders there is not a single large state with which the country has fought less in its history than with China.

Among the notable military episodes include the clashes of the Cossacks under the command of Erofei Khabarov and Onufrii Stepanov with the Manchus in the 50. XVII century., Two Chinese siege of the Far Eastern Russian fortress Albazin in 1685 and 1686 – 1687, as well as the unsuccessful attack of the vassal Qing Mongol dynasties on the Selenga prison in 1688 year. By the standards of the European theater of war, the scale of these battles, in which from the Russians every time several hundred people were involved, is negligible. Russian participation in the “intervention of the eight powers” ​​in China during the uprising of the iXhetuan 1899 – 1901. It was more ambitious, but even here Russia was not the main aggressor.

We can recall the conflict on the CER in 1929 (probably the largest in the history of bilateral relations), on Damanskiy Island and at the lake Zhalanashkol. It’s hard to find two such major powers that have existed side by side for more than 300 years and fought so little. Russian-Chinese relations had their own dark and shameful pages, for example, the Blagoveshchensk Massacre (1900) and the extermination of Orthodox Albazinians in China during the Ihetiuan uprising. But Russia and China never had a full-scale war with dozens and hundreds of thousands of cities killed and obliterated.

The “unequal Russian-Chinese treaties”, which, according to the Chinese version, giant territories were rejected in favor of Russia, can be viewed as an element of internal political propaganda. Its pillar is the notion of a “century of shame” (1840 – 1949), when foreigners thwarted China with impunity. Of course, the main thing in the concept of a “century of shame” is not the personal composition of the offenders, but the fact that the “shame” stopped only with the coming of the communist party to power in the country.

On the contrary, Russian-Chinese interaction directed against the West has a long history. Back in 1858, Russia attempted to supply Beijing with a batch of modern weapons - rifles and artillery pieces - and was ready to send its advisers to teach them how to use them. It was supposed that, having re-armed, the Chinese would arrange a bloodbath for the British and the French, and thus Russia would repay them for their defeat in the Crimean War. The deal fell through only because of the political clumsiness of the Chinese emperor, who refused to ratify the Treaty of Aygun with Russia. In the future, Soviet Russia provided military assistance to the Kuomintang during the civil and Sino-Japanese war that began in 1937. Of course, all this was only a prelude to giant cooperation projects launched after the communists came to power in China.

The anti-Soviet campaign in China in the 1960 – 1970-ies, the successful creation of the image of the age-old enemy from our country during this period does not indicate the presence of deep historical grievances. On the contrary, this is an important reminder of how easily the PRC leadership manipulates public opinion, directing the accumulated charge of discontent and aggression of its choice, even if the enemy is yesterday's ally. Diligent, regular reminders of the “century of shame” and the increasing use of nationalistic motifs in state ideology create fertile ground for outbreaks of nationalism. Often they get out of control, and then the Chinese leadership itself is forced to follow their lead.

Harassment of Japanese business in China during the escalation of the dispute around the Senkaku Islands in 2012. Mass campaign against French department stores Carrefour in punishment for the French position on Tibet in 2008. Sanctions against Manila and periodically appearing in Chinese newspapers about the impending war with the Philippines, Vietnam and Japan. All this we are seeing from the side. But if the object of hatred is to make a weak and harmless country like the Philippines, no one is immune from this, and the only question is whether there is adequate political will.

Predict where the political will of Beijing will be directed at least in 10 years, no one can. China, like Russia, is a country with a transitional political system. This is officially recognized and enshrined in party documents; most of the program speeches contain a provision for imminent political reform. How will this reform develop and will it be able to keep it under control? China is in the midst of urbanization and demographic transition, like the countries of Europe of the late XIX - first half of the XX centuries. And in the same way, he suffers from the strongest economic and social inequalities, the gap in education and cultural level between the urban middle class and the lower classes. The situation is aggravated by a deep ideological crisis in which the ruling Communist Party of China remains, forced in its propaganda to increasingly rely on nationalism and great power.

For Europe, the first half of the 20th century was a time of turbulence, leading to zigzags in foreign policy and war. The Chinese government is aware of the threats to development and stability and is taking measures, but the current state of economics does not make it possible to evaluate their long-term success with any high probability. In just a few years, the situation may radically change, and the Chinese threat will become real. The confrontation with Russia does not make sense from the point of view of the long-term interests of China’s development - but it also did not make sense to confront the USSR during the Cold War, such a line was dictated by the ideas of Mao Zedong and his entourage. Russia can not ignore this possibility.

The military aspect of the problem

In the event of a collision with China, Russia, regardless of its military construction efforts, will initially be on the verge of defeat. In fact, the defense of Siberia and the Far East is fundamentally impossible without large-scale use of nuclear weapons, moreover, at an early stage of the hostilities.

On the world map, Siberia and the Russian Far East look almost as big as the rest of Asia. But if you look at population density, it is easy to see that the populated part of the region bordering China is a strip with a length of 3 thousand km and an average width of less than 200 kilometers. The territories to the north are unsuitable for large masses of the population and full-scale economic development. Defending a narrow and long strip of land is a difficult task in itself. But even in this zone, the population is rare, and the infrastructure is undeveloped. There are three main highways that cross its territory and connect the Far East with the rest of Russia - two railways (the Trans-Siberian Railway and the Baikal-Amur Railway) and one automobile - the Chita – Khabarovsk highway, completed with great difficulty only in the 2000s. At the same time, the Trans-Siberian Railway and the Chita – Khabarovsk highway on a number of sections pass in the immediate vicinity of the Chinese border and are vulnerable even to artillery fire from Chinese territory. The BAM, built at the cost of tremendous efforts at a relatively safe distance from the border, makes the Russian situation in the Far East somewhat more stable. But this highway with its many bridges and tunnels can be cut by blows aviation and cruise missiles.

An unfavorable geographical location and infrastructure weakness have always been the determining factors in Russian and Soviet military policy in the Far East. They played a key role in the fact that the Russian Empire, which surpassed Japan economically and militarily, possessed immeasurably greater resources, was defeated in the war of 1904-1905. Since the 1930s The USSR, which relied on military-industrial superiority over Japan, and subsequently on China, tried to compensate for the disadvantageous geography by constantly maintaining a powerful group in the Far East guaranteed to exceed the probable enemy in quantity (and, as a rule, quality) of heavy weapons, if not by the number of personnel. Even in the most tragic moments of World War II, when the fate of the country hung in the balance, the group in the Far East did not fall below the level of 1,1 million people, 2 thousand. tanks, 3,1 thousand aircraft and approximately 9 thousand artillery systems.

Soviet military construction in the Far East was subordinated to similar logic after the start of the confrontation with Beijing in the 1960s. Since 1965, the Soviet Union began to transfer divisions from the internal regions to the military districts bordering on the PRC; only the Trans-Baikal Military District in the second half of the 1960s - early 1970s. received 10 divisions, including three tank divisions. In 1990, the okrug had 260 thousand people, 3,1 thousand tanks, 3,9 thousand artillery systems, and about 200 helicopters. At the disposal of the Far Eastern Military District was approximately 370 thousand military personnel, 6 thousand tanks, 5,8 thousand guns and 300 helicopters. In terms of the number of heavy weapons systems, these two districts were comparable with the entire five millionth PLA of that period, far ahead of the potential enemy in the technical level of their weapons. A significant part of the forces of the Central Asian military districts, the Siberian military district and the Pacific was aimed at actions against China. fleet.

And with all this, as Lieutenant-General Vladimir Legominov, who served 14 for years in reconnaissance ZabVO, writes in his memoirs, “we understood that the possibilities of grouping our troops in case of a military conflict in a nuclear-free version were in no way comparable to those of the opposing parties. " The only, and, moreover, very ephemeral, chance for success of the Soviet troops in a nuclear-free conflict was a quick offensive to dissect, encircle, and defeat a numerically superior enemy before the Chinese could cut the Soviet group into parts. There could be no question of confidence in the success of this operation, especially given the fact that at the end of 1970-x - the beginning of 1980-x. Beijing has come to grips with the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons. At the same time, China accepted a reservation to the first non-use of nuclear weapons, according to which it could be used against an enemy invading Chinese territory.

The maintenance of a huge group of troops in Siberia and the Far East in parallel with the arms race in Europe was undoubtedly one of the essential factors of the military over-tension of the Soviet economy and the subsequent collapse of the USSR. Post-Soviet Russia could not hope to preserve the Soviet defense system of the Far East. At the same time, China has become one of the leading industrial powers in the world. The superiority in armaments, which the Soviet Union possessed in relation to the PRC, is currently unattainable for any country of the world, including the United States (if it is not a matter of exclusively sea confrontation). Today, the number of Russian ground forces is less than 300 thousand people, that is, less than 20% of the ground forces of the PLA and, unlike in the Soviet era, the Russian army has no advantage in firepower.

An additional factor that aggravated the military situation of Russia in the Far East was the sharp reduction in the cost and wide distribution of precision weapons. The extensive system of long-term fortifications, built for decades in that part of the country and giving the Soviet defense some stability, has lost its meaning. All Russian general-purpose forces make up a small part of what the USSR once had in the Far East. If the prospects for non-nuclear confrontation with the PRC raised questions in the 1980s, now the situation looks quite definite. That is why Russia went to the 1990-ies. to sign an agreement with China on the reduction and limitation of the number of troops in the border area.

In essence, the only non-nuclear trump card of Russia in the military confrontation with Beijing remains the Pacific Fleet. The technical capabilities of the Russian nuclear submarine fleet and the growing dependence of China on maritime trade theoretically give Russia a chance to inflict unacceptable economic damage on the PRC. Obviously, this will not help stop a potential Chinese offensive, but will raise the price of a possible solution to the conflict with Russia. It is noteworthy that the base of nuclear submarines in Vilyuchinsk (Kamchatka), which the General Staff offered to close as early as 2003 due to lack of funds, is being vigorously restored and developed from 2004. At the same time, infrastructure development works are under the personal control of Vladimir Putin, who visited the base several times. It is in Vilyuchinsk that in the future most of the new nuclear missile submarines of the 955 "Borey" project and the multi-purpose boats of the 885 "Ash" project should be based.

In general, the construction of Russian general-purpose forces is carried out with an explicit account of the threat of confrontation with the PRC. Formed in 2010 on the basis of the Pacific Fleet, the Far East and part of the Siberian military districts, the United Strategic Command "East" (Eastern Military District) became the largest group of forces and assets in the Armed Forces. Despite the friendly nature of relations between Moscow and Beijing, the district directly responsible for the defense of the Russian-Chinese border is not regarded as a strategic backwater. Here is an active process of military construction. It accounts for a significant portion of the new weapons entering the Russian army. For example, the District Air Force became the main recipient of the upgraded Su-27CM fighter aircraft that entered the 22 and 23 aircraft fighter regiments (Dzemgi and Central-Corner bases in Primorye). According to the statements of the Russian military leadership, the third regiment of the newest Russian anti-aircraft missile systems C-400 will be deployed in the Far East (the first two are responsible for the defense of Moscow). The district also received Su-30М2 fighters, Su-25СМ attack aircraft, Ka-52 attack helicopters, Mi-26 heavy transport helicopters and other equipment. In 2011 – 2012 more than 50% of samples of military equipment used by the air force and air defense of the district have been updated (replaced with new or upgraded). Annually, exercises are conducted to transfer forces to the Far East from the European part of Russia. Much attention is paid to improving the fleet of strategic military transport aircraft. Nonetheless, the maximum that Russian general-purpose forces can count on is a reflection of armed provocation modeled on the 1969 border Soviet-Chinese conflicts or somewhat larger.

The basis of Russian defense in relation to China is nuclear weapons, including tactical ones. The Chinese factor probably explains many aspects of Russian behavior in the field of control and reduction of strategic armaments. Russia does not intend to discuss with the United States anymore the reduction of strategic nuclear arsenals without the participation of other nuclear powers; it does not disclose the composition and is not going to reduce its tactical nuclear arsenal, while it is known that considerable funds are spent on its development. The Chinese factor seems to be related to the ideas expressed in the past by Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov about Russia's withdrawal from the treaty on medium and short-range missiles.

It should be noted that many Russian fears against China are mirrored in response to Chinese fears. Russia is also a country with a transitional political system; extreme ideologies are strong in Russia and the theory of the “Chinese threat” enjoys considerable popularity. The transition of Russia to the camp of Western countries and its transformation into an ally of the United States will put Beijing in an extremely difficult and dangerous situation; long-term efforts to diversify the sources of supply of China with raw materials will be thwarted; Chinese investments in the CIS countries will be under threat. Despite the fact that Russia is unable to carry out an overland invasion of China, the military confrontation and the prospect of the appearance of American bases in Russia will require the PRC to make gigantic investments in air defense systems, warnings about a rocket attack, etc. strategic facilities. China will also be isolated in the international arena, where Moscow is its only significant ally on many important issues for Beijing.

Mutual fear and foreign policy

The consequences of a possible confrontation force Russia and China to take measures to avoid this scenario. The governments of the two countries are now consciously trying to create strong economic, political and humanitarian ties that will make the emergence of a conflict extremely unlikely and even impossible. These efforts are hampered by the reluctance of the parties to give up short-term economic interests. There is also a difference in the scale of the two economies, mutual distrust and a lack of understanding of the motives of the other side.

In the economic sphere, Russia is interested in relations of maximum interdependence, which should become an important stabilizing factor of political ties. The PRC fully supports the striving for the rapid growth of Russian-Chinese trade. In 2012, it reached 90 billion dollars and is expected to exceed 2013 billion dollars in 100. China is already Russia's largest trading partner if the European Union is not considered as a single economy. According to the results of 2012, the PRC share in the foreign trade turnover of Russia is slightly more than 10%, the share of Russia in the Chinese foreign trade turnover barely exceeds 2%. However, Russia is becoming an important supplier of certain types of commodities, and as China strives to diversify sources of imports of raw materials, Russia's share will grow. In addition to expanding the current agreement on oil imports to the end of 2013, a contract may be awarded to supply Russian gas to China. Coal is of growing interest to the Chinese; there are prospects for increasing exports of petroleum products and electricity. At the same time, in the medium term, the stabilizing role of the economy for bilateral relations will remain insignificant.

Politically, the parties seek to involve each other in a variety of formats and mechanisms of political interaction. These include joint participation in the SCO, cooperation in the BRICS, as well as a streamlined cooperation mechanism when discussing international issues in the UN, including holding regular inter-MFA consultations, coordinating positions before important ballots in the Security Council, etc.

China seeks, whenever possible, to remove Russian concerns about the possibility of rivalry in the post-Soviet space. The attempts made in the past by some countries, in particular Belarus, to use China as a counterweight to Russian influence were received coolly by Beijing. During the visit to China of the Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in 2010, China essentially accepted the recognition of the post-Soviet space as a zone of Russian special interests, expressing in a joint document support for Moscow’s actions to ensure its core interests and security in the Caucasus and the CIS as a whole.

In the field of defense and security, in addition to large-scale military-technical cooperation, which in fact has recently returned to the level of 1990, the parties take numerous measures to strengthen mutual trust, including joint exercises, cooperation in the training of military personnel, exchange of intelligence information, etc. d. There is a deliberate effort to create a positive image of a partner in the eyes of its own public, while China has gone into these efforts, possibly further than Russia. Modern Russian culture is quite widely represented on Chinese television and radio; The Chinese media as a whole provide detailed and sympathetic information about the political and economic situation in Russia. Extensive plans for the development of Russian-Chinese relations exist in the field of education, science and technology. Although it will take years to create a truly solid material base of Russian-Chinese relations, and success is not guaranteed, at the moment the leaders of both countries intend to finish the job.

* * *

The Chinese threat, for all its hypothetical nature, is one of the main factors determining Russian foreign policy and military construction. Russia's geographical position is such that the military-political confrontation with the PRC will have grave consequences, it is fraught with enormous risk, even if Moscow receives political support from Washington. Therefore, Russia is suspicious of any ideas about partnership with the United States in the Asia-Pacific region: such a partnership does not bring certain benefits (at least the United States is obviously not ready to offer Russia anything really attractive in the foreseeable future), but is associated with gigantic and immediate risk to the future state.

The special nature of relations with China means that Russia is not interested in principle, even in the simple designation of its role in regional disputes between the PRC and other countries. Moscow does not want to find itself in a forced choice between special political relations with Beijing and the preservation of mutually beneficial economic cooperation with its neighbors. Given the long-term uncertainty regarding the future of China, Russia still cannot rule out the transition of the Chinese threat to the real category. Because of this, Russia needs to maintain effective channels of communication and interaction with the United States and American allies in the APR, which could be activated if necessary.

Russia's attitude to today's China and its place in the world was formulated by Vladimir Putin in an interview with three federal channels 17 of October 2011 of the year. Responding to a question about the reality of the Chinese threat, Putin said that the aspirations of China are not the natural resources of the adjacent territories, but world leadership, and "here we are not going to argue with China." “China has other competitors here. So let them understand each other, ”Putin said. He also noted that they are trying to frighten Russia with the Chinese threat, "as a rule, our Western partners." Russia seeks to acquire reliable guarantees of its own security in the Chinese direction and, at the same time, to avoid full-fledged involvement in the growing US-China rivalry, reaping all the benefits laid in this case to a third party. A similar position in international relations in 1970 – 1980-ies. China itself occupied, and it was precisely the skilful use of this position by Beijing that became the most important basic condition for a subsequent spurt in the development of the country.
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48 comments
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  1. Ruslan67
    Ruslan67 6 May 2013 05: 37 New
    +7
    Just do not forget that you can be friends with the Chinese only against someone and everything will be in order good
    1. NKVD
      NKVD 6 May 2013 14: 15 New
      +1
      Quote: Ruslan67
      Just do not forget that you can be friends with the Chinese

      We have no friends! There are only temporary companions ...
  2. MG42
    MG42 6 May 2013 05: 44 New
    +8
    China cannot be underestimated, they are now actively re-equipping the army, and the disproportionate composition of the population (there are much more men than women in the PRC) suggests that soft Chinese diplomacy can be changed to aggressive at any time ... the recent military confrontation with Japan shows that the Chinese dragon decided to play with muscles, the only question is in which direction this will manifest itself.
    1. T-100
      T-100 6 May 2013 13: 56 New
      +1
      The Chinese should know: That in the event of war, the Strategic Nuclear Forces of the Russian Federation (SNF of the Russian Federation) will not slow down with an answer !!!
  3. vladsolo56
    vladsolo56 6 May 2013 06: 03 New
    +3
    The Chinese threat is nonsense propagated by propagandists working in the USA. Americans strongly dislike relations between Russia and China, Practice: Divide and conquer, this is their very first rule in international politics. One only confuses, why did they decide that the smartest? Although who knows what is in the heads of our politicians, you can say anything. What will actually be the question.
    1. Thunderbolt
      Thunderbolt 6 May 2013 06: 18 New
      +3
      The benefits of mutually beneficial cooperation outweigh the benefits of confrontation. I will say otherwise: we have friends against whom.
    2. redwolf_13
      redwolf_13 6 May 2013 08: 11 New
      +8
      Forgive me, but 76 years ago, say the same, "The German threat, this is nonsense, propagated by propagandists and militarists of England ... etc." Similar words. The Chinese dragon is already very close to him, he needs even more resources and territory for life. Taiwan will be the first on whom they will try their fists and then someone will turn up by the arm
      1. Scythian 35
        Scythian 35 6 May 2013 10: 08 New
        +2
        The “unequal Russian-Chinese treaties,” which, according to the Chinese version, gigantic territories were torn away from China in favor of Russia, can be regarded as an element of domestic political propaganda.
        That is exactly what fascist Germany began with internal propaganda, until Hitler gained strength.
      2. Retx
        Retx 6 May 2013 13: 07 New
        +1
        The Chinese practice buffer zones at the borders, less populated regions. There are also Indians, there are no less. No one will go anywhere, enough to think in the eras of the 19th century.
        1. UFO
          UFO 6 May 2013 14: 46 New
          +1
          Now - maybe in 5-10 years, how will it be, can you say? Who knew China would rise like that? It threatens Japan, starts an arms race with the States, etc. Do you think that they have no plans to annex the territory of Russia ?! They even have geographical maps with new borders. fool
      3. Check
        Check 7 May 2013 11: 12 New
        0
        and yet, Asia is not Europe, there are more wise people in Asia, we are the only ones who cover them from the side of NATO, it is not profitable for them to quarrel with us, because then they will be against everyone and China will not stand against everyone.
    3. eagle11
      eagle11 6 May 2013 13: 00 New
      +4
      vladsolo56, are you an officer of the SVR or GRU, in extreme cases, work for the Foreign Ministry? Already wrote more than once love, here the word is nonsense. I will personally say for myself, I serve in the BBO, I am familiar with this problem. The PRC will coexist peacefully with the Russian Federation only as long as we give them resources and territory peacefully (we have already given them a lot), and the increase in tension is expected very soon, this article (her song "all is well") makes you strain, especially knowing what a potential "friend" might be.
      1. vladsolo56
        vladsolo56 6 May 2013 14: 51 New
        -3
        And you seem to be a political analyst, think globally, know where and who thinks what. In my opinion, you are just one of those who sow panic for money, spreading rumors about the Chinese threat.
        1. eagle11
          eagle11 6 May 2013 15: 41 New
          +1
          Of course I know, otherwise it’s just an unnecessary element in the RF Armed Forces. I told you not my thoughts, but the real state of things. Unfortunately, I am not an analyst (by job), but assessing the situation (in the manner of educational program) is the second most important function of the military command and control body.
          1. vladsolo56
            vladsolo56 6 May 2013 20: 48 New
            0
            Then explain what is the point of pouring hysteria into the society about the Chinese threat, as far as I understand, such things are considered and analyzed in special state security agencies. Who needs to pour rumors into the society every day about the allegedly aggressive intentions of China? From this, what will increase the country's defense capability? maybe the threat will become less?
            1. eagle11
              eagle11 7 May 2013 13: 36 New
              0
              vladsolo56, if I were given numbers, then there was hysteria. And so, society must be aware of the threat to its state. Maybe then the money will go where it is necessary and the necessary directions will be developed. In his practice, he was convinced that it was not the gods who burn the pots and that "they know what to do there" is not true. There have been many mistakes in the history of the state, and as the classic said, “who benefits from it”? It cannot be that such "mistakes" happen. And if these are mistakes, why do we need the leaders who make them?
    4. Georgs
      Georgs 6 May 2013 15: 07 New
      +1
      Quote: vladsolo56
      The Chinese threat is nonsense propagated by propagandists working in the USA. Americans strongly dislike relations between Russia and China, Practice: Divide and conquer, this is their very first rule in international politics. One only confuses, why did they decide that the smartest? Although who knows what is in the heads of our politicians, you can say anything. What will actually be the question.

      No, guys! The Chinese threat is not nonsense. Just as long as there is a common enemy, it is not so sharp, although it can be seen quite clearly. China needs living space and is much sharper than the Nazis, for whom the idea of ​​expanding living space to the east was far-fetched, just a reason for aggression. So, the issues of developing WMD / WMD are currently more acute than ever.
    5. elmi
      elmi 6 May 2013 16: 50 New
      +3
      Quote: vladsolo56
      The Chinese threat is nonsense propagated by propagandists working in the USA. Americans strongly dislike relations between Russia and China, Practice: Divide and conquer, this is their very first rule in international politics. One only confuses, why did they decide that the smartest? Although who knows what is in the heads of our politicians, you can say anything. What will actually be the question.

      I agree with you. How many times have our country been baited with others, thereby weakening. We can’t get into the next bark. China is not our enemy, and America and their minions are sleeping and seeing how to pit Russia and China.
  4. Uncle lee
    Uncle lee 6 May 2013 06: 24 New
    +7
    Keep gunpowder dry! Ear vostro!
    1. eagle11
      eagle11 6 May 2013 13: 05 New
      +3
      Exactly, and continue to reduce troops! At the moment, the number of BBOs is less than the number of the border Shenyang HEs, even taking into account the possibilities to strengthen our group, we are several times inferior to our "brother".
  5. optimist
    optimist 6 May 2013 07: 17 New
    +8
    Do not trust the narrow-eyed ... The USSR and Germany won’t kiss until the 22.06.41nd of June XNUMX: it’s really bad ... Yes, and the Masons are sleeping and they see Russia and China bleed. Military aggression is unlikely: most likely, millions of Chinese Gaster in Siberia and the Far East will “bite off” these territories in a “democratic” way. Instead of attracting the indigenous population of Russia to the Far East, GDP and K are doing everything for our people to get out of there. And nature, as you know, does not tolerate emptiness ...
    1. vladsolo56
      vladsolo56 6 May 2013 07: 24 New
      +1
      Actually smart, before trusting or not trusting, he thinks. So if you think about it, then for the next decades, quarreling with Russia is unprofitable for China. Rather, on the contrary, China benefits a lot from an alliance with Russia, just like Russia itself from an alliance with China. That is why the United States is so frantically imposing the Chinese threat on the Russians. And after all, there are those who are underway, why? Well, this is a matter of mental development, nothing more.
      1. Thunderbolt
        Thunderbolt 6 May 2013 07: 36 New
        +1
        Quote: vladsolo56
        the freemasons are sleeping and see bleed Russia and China
        If they sleep when, they quickly wake up in a cold sweat if they dream that the Russian Federation and the PRC are partners. And for the Far East, the Optimist, don’t worry, he is guarded by the Kozelsky division and long-term contracts. Yes, the development vector needs to be slightly adjusted. And of course, tight control over the spending of funds. However, the latter applies to all sectors and directions of our development.
        1. antiaircrafter
          antiaircrafter 6 May 2013 12: 11 New
          0
          Quote: Thunderbolt
          And so that the Hunhuzes do not settle in our "taiga",

          it is necessary to periodically clean the territory discovered genocide mercilessly and without noise.
      2. eagle11
        eagle11 6 May 2013 13: 06 New
        0
        Time will tell.
      3. UFO
        UFO 6 May 2013 14: 52 New
        0
        Quote: vladsolo56
        China quarrels with Russia for decades to come

        What “decades” are we talking about? Everything will be decided in the coming years! If the ova financial system collapses, China will have no competitors! So the era of new colonies and metropolises will begin, they have been waiting for this for more than 5 thousand years. hi
        1. vladsolo56
          vladsolo56 6 May 2013 20: 49 New
          -1
          Your fantasy is very stormy)))
  6. dark_65
    dark_65 6 May 2013 07: 42 New
    +1
    Everything is correct, everything converges, only the ratio of one to ten remains unchanged.
  7. Krasnoyarsk
    Krasnoyarsk 6 May 2013 08: 17 New
    +2
    Sooner or later, China will begin to rock the boat to our Far East, and therefore the Russian Federation must be fully armed.
    1. lazy
      lazy 6 May 2013 13: 07 New
      +2
      as I understand it, those who live on one side of the Urals say they don’t need to be afraid of China, and those who on the other believe that China is no less and perhaps even bigger. I come from a city where there is Orekhov Street, the hero of the deceased in Damansky. and I believe that on a historical scale, China is a greater threat than the United States
  8. leon-iv
    leon-iv 6 May 2013 08: 43 New
    0
    how tired of all these experts))))
    See where the maximum resettlement goes. This is Southeast Asia to the United States more leave in a year. All these resources about which they speak are located far in Siberia and you need to reach out to them and maintain this communication.
    While China is building mainly a fleet, it is not dangerous to us.
    That's when a distinct SPRN and strategic nuclear forces will be created at the level of the Russian Federation then we will talk
    And there will NOT be a non-nuclear conflict with China. Women do not give birth yet !!!!!
    1. eagle11
      eagle11 6 May 2013 13: 12 New
      +2
      I’ll disappoint you a little, but we (the Russian Federation) do not consider a nuclear conflict (namely, a global war) with the PRC, there are some features, but the PRC allows (just like us in the USSR) the use of tactical nuclear weapons, we too, but believe me, this is a project "the enemy doesn’t surrenders our ... ".
      1. leon-iv
        leon-iv 6 May 2013 14: 10 New
        0
        but we (Russia) do not consider a nuclear conflict (namely, a global war) with the PRC, there are some features

        At what? Very interesting to listen to.
        1. eagle11
          eagle11 6 May 2013 15: 44 New
          -1
          I give lectures elsewhere, here my comrades have the wrong admission category :)
  9. mogus
    mogus 6 May 2013 08: 46 New
    +5
    The Chinese, who studied at universities on the subject of Russia (language, history) to work with us, in private conversations are surprised at our fears about the threat from China. The answer is simple: Napoleon and Hitler could not conquer you (half of Europe worked in Germany then).
    If the state weakens, then there will be those who want to grab a piece for themselves (China is no exception). There will be power in the state — there will be no desire for a piece. Now you should not expect any tricks from China (just why do not they need it).
    1. eagle11
      eagle11 6 May 2013 13: 14 New
      +1
      He studied with the Chinese at the academy, the teachers said that they didn’t come to study, they didn’t train them for no reason, and even they went to König for our Christmas holidays.
      1. mogus
        mogus 6 May 2013 13: 27 New
        +2
        Eastern Siberia, I live here. Until they “tightened their nuts” with the forest, the Chinese were. Forest "pressed", the Chinese left. They can now earn money at home, to us only "on a watch."
  10. pa_nik
    pa_nik 6 May 2013 11: 06 New
    +2
    Quote: mogus
    There will be power in the state — there will be no desire for a piece.


    100%!

    I liked the article. Pretty versatile analysis. Pluses ... :) It's a pity, in my opinion, something is still missing. In particular, the presence of separatism in China itself. It is not the support that is connected with this, but the tacit agreement of the Chinese side with Russia's actions in the Caucasus. They understand such manifestations (separatism), it is necessary to press in the bud. And their double standards of the West do not please. In this matter, we are also on one side of the barricades. soldier And what is the analysis of Chinese political scientists about the lack of democracy in the States? Well, not handsome !? lol Understand that behind them is Strength. We also do not bother to remember: who we are and who our ancestors hi
  11. Dimy4
    Dimy4 6 May 2013 11: 11 New
    +1
    The conflict on Damansky was needed by China to get rid of the stigma of the "younger brother" of the USSR. He then got rid of the stigma, but at the expense of the lives of his soldiers and officers and ours.
  12. Scoun
    Scoun 6 May 2013 11: 18 New
    +1
    Humanitarian contacts, ties between public organizations, and cooperation in the field of education are being strengthened. Officials of both countries agree that the “Chinese threat” is a myth

    in the meantime
    At the same time, an analysis of the rearmament of the Armed Forces of Russia shows that The Eastern Military District is one of the leaders in terms of the rate of receipt of new equipment. The prompt transfer of troops from European Russia to the Far East is one of the main scenarios of large-scale maneuvers conducted in Russia.

    from the series: smile and wave, smile and wave.
    Most FSB official criminal cases published spying on China. Moscow explicitly limits Chinese investments in some strategically important sectors of the economy.

    It resembles a situation with a beast when it waits, when it flinches, or when it is distracted in general, when it is possible to attack with a high degree of probability that you will not receive an answer.
  13. svskor80
    svskor80 6 May 2013 11: 27 New
    +1
    It’s not worth relaxing, but you don’t need to overestimate the Chinese. In land conflicts of recent decades, they have not shown anything worthwhile, quite the contrary. But you don’t throw anyone with hats, we passed it ourselves - we know.
  14. Roll
    Roll 6 May 2013 11: 45 New
    -1
    drinks My opinion is that China will not attack us in the next 20 years. Our wealth in Siberia is a myth. On the contrary, we need to work more closely with China, sell oil and gas, even at a discount, sell the most advanced weapons and technologies, and buy them from China. If China attacks another after 20 years, it’s Taiwan, the countries of Juva, Mongolia and Kazakhstan in the north. Here we must take the right position and get our share, like Stalin from Hitler during the partition of Poland. Ideally, to conclude is not something like the secret protocols of the Molotov-Ribentrop Pact. We are brothers, let the eldest and drunk, and the younger wiser, but it's our fault. We have vigorous weapons and this will always die off China’s excessive ambitions. But if we do not do this and China enters into an alliance against us with amers, Europe, and Japan, then the khan and vigorous weapons will not save us.
    1. mogus
      mogus 6 May 2013 13: 31 New
      +1
      what do you mean by the myth of riches of siberia? 2/3 of the currency in Russia, the sale of resources from here.
      1. Roll
        Roll 6 May 2013 13: 45 New
        -1
        fellow Under the myth, I have that of course we have wealth, just in order to get them it is not at all necessary to occupy us. Let’s say that copper from the Udokan deposit is unprofitable to conduct bam in the conditions of a guerrilla war. The same applies to oil for gases. They have value only when they are bought in peaceful conditions. It is not possible to keep such long pipelines under occupation, regardless of the size of the Chinese army. Therefore, our wealth for China is a myth.
        1. UFO
          UFO 6 May 2013 15: 10 New
          0
          Apparently you have little idea of ​​the capabilities and capabilities of the PLA. Think in terms of European wars. There will be a tsunami of Chinese soldiers, what partisan actions, if even in the most remote taiga corners, the Chinese military and colonialists will be more than the local population at times! Siberia and the Far East are only about 30 million people (it will even decrease during hostilities), which is worth China sending here for example 200-300 million, “raise Siberia and the Far East”! crying
          1. vadson
            vadson 6 May 2013 18: 11 New
            -1
            with figures more accurately, 200, 300 million! In China, by wiki 1.344 milliards to the people, half a woman, there are 700 lyam. the elderly children sick unmotivated abroad - these are the categories that will not go under the bullets. as a result, out of 700 lyam, only about 500 lyam can stand under a gun. you say that half of the adult working population of the country will go to Siberia to fight? where where? Who will revive Chinese cities from the ashes?
            1. UFO
              UFO 6 May 2013 21: 16 New
              0
              Quote: vadson
              you say that half of the adult working population of the country will go to Siberia to fight?

              Read carefully:
              Quote: UFO
              and colonizers

              Do you know that up to 100 million Chinese settled around the world are ready to return to their homeland or order a “5 column” in their countries of residence by order from Beijing? Of course, not all 100%, but still!
              Quote: vadson
              200, 300 million!
              Let not so much, but still there will be a bust, for us it is critical. You underestimate the organization of this nation, if necessary - they will relocate half of their population to us. yes
              1. vadson
                vadson 6 May 2013 22: 10 New
                0
                all 100 million at once we will let freely enter the territory of the Russian Federation? such preparations cannot go unnoticed
  15. igor36
    igor36 6 May 2013 12: 50 New
    +2
    Russia's conflict with China is beneficial only to the Americans, because it will lead to the weakening of both countries. The Chinese themselves do not consider issues of invasion of the Russian Federation. Now they are developing their presence in Africa and South America, there are no fewer resources there, a military invasion is not required, and it’s cheaper to develop than in the Arctic.
  16. lazy
    lazy 6 May 2013 13: 28 New
    +1
    war is a continuation of politics and economics. with the USA we do not have a common border (not counting the Bering Strait), with China the border is huge, with the USA we have no territorial claims, with China at least there are unofficial ones, and the official ones have merged China including the Daman and a bunch of islands along the Amur , in order to take advantage of the resources of the conquered territory it is necessary to occupy it, the Amers do not have that much population, China has, by and large, only a nuclear war is possible between Russia and America, but it is economically disadvantageous (that is, only possible if it takes power a frank psychopath will come in the states) so we’ll certainly fight the states for markets and influence, but like a cold war by someone else’s hands. China, after re-equipping its army, will be able to wage a non-nuclear war with Russia. of course we have a nuclear shield but you are sure that the rulers will press the button knowing that this will lead to tens of millions of lives and the destruction of their hometown as a result of a nuclear retaliation, if China starts a war and declares that he does not want to conquer all of Russia, but only "return the original territory to the Urals" and will not use nuclear weapons first? I’m not sure of the rulers. in fact, for the Chinese attack on Russia there are much more prerequisites, the US attack.
    (P.S and why, then, the first su-34s went to Voronezh and not to Khurba, it seems that it is not in the second stage either, judging by the media reports where the su-34 will be sent)
  17. Vtel
    Vtel 6 May 2013 14: 12 New
    +2
    The Chinese will only respect strong Russia, both militarily and politically. Chinese wisdom says: "To defeat the enemy, do not strive to become stronger than him, but make him weaker than yourself."
  18. adg76
    adg76 6 May 2013 14: 56 New
    +2
    Appetite comes with eating. China will start small, something like Taiwan. With success and the "indignant" approval of the world community, we or India will be next. Well, or for a snack, Japan. Although the United States is behind Japan. Therefore vryatli pull the lion's mustache. We need to learn to be friends with India so that we don’t quarrel with China, but at the same time enlist the support of India. China will have to think more about its borders from India. And India will promise support in the matter with Pakistan, thereby punishing Pakistan for the war against the Soviet Union in Afghanistan. It should be clear to all foreign powers that it’s impossible to shoot our soldiers with impunity. Time will pass and we will find a way to take revenge. In a word, diplomacy should work. Only this at this stage will deter China from attacking Russia
    1. redwolf_13
      redwolf_13 6 May 2013 16: 32 New
      -1
      After Taiwan there will be either Kazakhstan or Vietnam. The continuation of the "First Communist War" which China lost but he did not forget the offense. Moreover, there are large oil reserves in this territory.
      And with Pakistan, an interesting story in general. Legally, the "Duran Line" has already ceased to be. And India and Afghanistan can easily break Pakistan, and if China is still connected, this will be the valve through which the “steam of war” will come out. China will quietly digest its piece of cake. India will get peace on the border. And the hotbed of spirits will cease to exist.
      1. adg76
        adg76 6 May 2013 17: 07 New
        0
        Kazakhstan and Russia are almost the same thing, albeit independent states. The conflict with Kazakhstan is almost one hundred percent war with Russia (it depends on who will be at the helm of our country at that time. And Vietnam is quite possible. But Vietnam will go underground and fight. It’s quick not to break China. This war will distract him from others for a long time countries
        1. Roll
          Roll 6 May 2013 17: 26 New
          -1
          bully Kazakhstan and Russia are completely different states. it all depends on how China will do this if, according to the Libyan scenario, when they provoke a civil war between the clans of the Caspian, Alma-Ata and Astana, and any of the clans calls on the Chinese peacekeepers, we can do nothing. Sorry but this is a fact.
  19. Metlik
    Metlik 6 May 2013 16: 09 New
    +2
    An unfavorable geographical position and infrastructure weakness have always been the determining factors in Russian and Soviet military policy in the Far East. They played a key role in the fact that the Russian Empire, surpassing Japan economically and militarily, possessing immeasurably large resources, was defeated in the war of 1904-1905.

    I do not agree with this statement. In 10 years, the Russian Empire will suffer defeats from Germany being in a much more convenient geographical position. The main reasons were different - sloppiness and lack of training of the army, lack of will of the top leadership, (the king simply let things go by chance). It is highly doubtful that we surpassed Japan militarily. For example, such a fact - with the outbreak of war with Germany, Russia had to buy rifles from the same Japan, as there were sorely lacking.
  20. Kyrgyz
    Kyrgyz 6 May 2013 18: 13 New
    0
    Even if we analyze the course of WWII, it will become obvious that Germany's success was overwhelming in Europe where it is good with roads and climate, to a certain extent it was in the south of Russia and was very conditional in the north of Russia, conditions in Siberia and the Far East are worse than conditions in the northwest Of Russia. I understand that most readers saw Siberia and the Far East with Yakutia only on the map, but there is absolutely no infrastructure, the invasion troops have nowhere to go (there is only one road and everyone knows it), all directions of the strike are obvious, the bases to create nowhere are not branched out, supply in the face of resistance The Russian forces are extremely unstable, drag infantry and equipment through the taiga and gorges, and inappropriately singing about transport aircraft it will be caught by interceptors and air defense, and the fact that it seeps through the landing will be in the overwhelming minority, or run wild in the forest if it does not die of hunger, we it’s not enough in Siberia because it doesn’t feed much food does not grow here))), and the resources without the possibility of transporting them to the places of processing or sale are dirt and stones.
    IMHO China is not a threat to us, just like we do not have friction for them, we do not meddle in each other’s internal affairs, we are not brothers, we are very different culturally, but we have nothing to divide China will not win in this war, it will crumble, and Russia will remain it is tested for strength by such moves
    1. Aleks tv
      Aleks tv 6 May 2013 20: 40 New
      0
      Quote: Kyrgyz
      most readers saw Siberia and the Far East with Yakutia only on the map, but there is absolutely no infrastructure, the invasion troops have nowhere to go (there is only one road and everyone knows it)

      Yes, the road is one. We and they know about this.

      Quote: Kyrgyz
      China will not win this war, it will crumble, and Russia will remain; it has been tested for strength by such moves

      Well said, Roman, but it would be better if there were no such "checks" ... And best of all, China would not even have such a potential thought.


      .

      I liked the article as a whole. Thanks to the author.

      "...In terms of the number of heavy weapon systems, these two districts were comparable with the entire five-million PLA of that period, far ahead of the potential enemy in the technical level of their weapons... »

      This is what I understand, and with this appendix you can live peacefully and peacefully trade with China.
      "..success in a nuclear-free conflict was a quick transition to the offensive with the goal of cutting into pieces, encircling and defeating a numerically superior enemy before the Chinese could cut the Soviet group into parts... "

      Strategy, OI and tactics have also been developed.

      "...The consequences of a possible confrontation are forcing Russia and China to take measures to avoid this scenario.... »

      That is all that the world is holding on to in the East at the moment.

      I’m writing not by hearsay, I managed to serve in ZabVO, I loved this land very much.
      At the moment, troops are reduced and withdrawn from the border (and from transport infrastructure) to the taiga. They do not pose any danger to China. A sad joke about the invincibility of the Red Army, since it is impossible to find it, is vividly relevant.
      And the Chinese brothers, assuring everyone of their peaceful intentions, continue to shockly strengthen the group of forces near our borders, build roads along it (not in the interests of the national economy) and print textbooks for children about the "real" Chinese territories. Well done, you can’t say anything. Just stupid facts.
      Who is stopping us from also strengthening our troops and quietly trading?

      In the Soviet "stagnant" time, this worked, but now in the "progressive" time - for some reason ..
      With my hands and feet I am for peace and friendship with China, especially for joint actions in the international arena. This association promises many benefits to both sides, but - the weak will always be weak, they will not perceive it properly, and the unreasonableness in military policy has always led to grave consequences.