Back to the Future: What to Fly on to 2035
There's a man in the States called Brent Eastwood. No relation to Clint the Sheriff, but a former US Army infantry captain. In Afghanistan, Captain Eastwood suffered a hit from a landmine, was completely written off despite his youth, and, out of frustration, spiraled downward: he became a PhD, wrote several books, and was a pioneer in the use of AI for analytics.
In general, it turns out that a land mine is not such a harmful thing.
The resulting calculations are interesting: some kind of super-ambitious ten-year (well, not five years, otherwise the US would be finished!) plan for modernizing the US Air Force, based on the use of the F-47 NGAD and B-21 Raider, as well as the “Super” upgrades for the F-22, the “Ferrari” for the F-35, and simply the “J” for the B-52.
The US now seriously believes that these programs could provide the service with an unprecedented first-strike capability and sustained offensive against China or Iran, but only if policy and budget support it.
B-21 Raider
Many experts estimate that the cost of this program will be more than 200 billion dollars, but there are doubts that Congress will allocate funds for such a large-scale modernization, predicting that instead of a full-fledged “fleet "The dream" will be a dream of a fleet consisting of 100 NGAD aircraft and 100 B-21s.
The current cadre of American pilots, their training, and the existing fifth-generation aircraft are considered to make the US Air Force a formidable force. The real battle will be between strategy and affordability.
The next 10 years for the US Air Force may be dominated by two aircraft: the NGAD and the B-21, and many believe these aircraft are crucial to ensuring the US's advantage in the skies anywhere on the globe.
The most expensive projects are the F-47 NGAD and the B-21 Raider, on which the White House is placing both military and political stakes. By all accounts, these two aircraft will deal a devastating blow to US adversaries and will play a vital role in any Air Force response to Chinese aggression that leads to armed conflict.
"Aggression from China that will lead to armed conflict"—you'll agree, there's something about this statement that makes you chuckle. China's aggression against the United States is perhaps something worth living for; witnessing such a circus would be a costly affair.
But let's get back to the US Air Force and its plans.
The question of time and billions of dollars is the question of when the F-47 and B-21 will enter service. We must survive until then, be it a dummy or a carcass, but survive. And somehow ensure the country's defense capability in the meantime, what if China attacks before 100 B-21s are ready?
Existing F-22s and F-35s could be upgraded to meet 2030s requirements. Plans call for the F-22 "Super" and F-35 "Ferrari" (these are upgrade packages, not new aircraft) to "create a unique fighter fleet based on legacy systems." It remains to be seen how the F-35 became obsolete, especially given the huge backlog of buyers.
The B-52 has a new, but long-delayed, radar and engine package that will finally (barring any unforeseen developments) be ready in 2030. This will give the aircraft, which is approaching its 80th year of service, the so-called B-52J upgrade.
So what will the Air Force look like in, say, 2035?
Let's take a closer look at "Super" and "Ferrari." Of course, the F-22 could have been named something more interesting. "Ford," for example. "Ford and Ferrari"—it's like Hollywood in the sky. Or "Lamborghini," although "McLaren" is more popular this year. It doesn't matter, though—you know, the name doesn't make the aircraft more effective. If you don't believe me, just ask the Su-35, which still flies without a name, without a nickname, and how does it fly?
They say the F-22 Super, if all aircraft in its class receive the proposed upgrades, will have many advantages. The only question is, over whom?
An F-22 Raptor performs a high-speed turn at the annual air show.
The F-22's base software will likely incorporate artificial intelligence and machine learning. The Super will be a relatively more advanced aircraft, capable of more effective ground attack and enhanced situational awareness.
The F-22 Super will be equipped with an upgraded hypersonic weapons and will be able to "control" unmanned aerial vehicles as part of the CCA, which will provide it with superior combat capabilities.
There are, however, a number of "BUTs" here: even if hypersonic weapons appear, we're not talking about modernized ones yet, there's nothing to modernize yet. If they do appear Drones SSA, "faithful followers", and if the ability to effectively manage them is established.
Overall, it looks more like a waste of budget than further development of the F-22 as a combat aircraft.
The F-35 "Ferrari" will likely become a "nearly" sixth-generation fighter with improved stealth coating and the ability to control unmanned aerial vehicles. It's not much, as they say, but it's worth taking a closer look.
The Ferrari will have improved sensors and targeting mechanisms. The F-35 will become a "flying supercomputer," also utilizing artificial intelligence and possibly even a quantum computer in the cockpit.
Will these programs be completed on time and within budget? Oh, there's so much to consider here... But there's one thorny issue: the cost and risk of delays in the delivery of the new aircraft, which would lead to schedule slippage, as is typical for the United States, are real.
The F-47 NGAD is promised to be airborne within the next two years, although the first flight date of 2028 may be… somewhat optimistic. The B-21 program is currently on schedule and within budget, with two Raider bombers already flying, but that doesn't guarantee the outcome everyone expects.
NGAD
These ultra-stealthy aircraft are an integral part of the Air Force's future doctrine. They are capable of suppressing enemy air defenses, destroying aircraft on the ground, and bombing other military infrastructure. As first-strike weapons, according to the concept, they will strike first and destroy everything in their path.
On the second day of combat operations, the updated F-22 and F-35 will enter the fight, and we should not forget about the devastating bombing and missile strikes from the B-52J, which could also happen.
It won't be easy; everyone understands it; the whole world has learned to draw plans and pretty pictures. But for the last 20 years, everyone's had problems with implementation—well, really, everyone has. True, the more a product "has no analogues...", the more problems it has. Sometimes you think: if only there were analogues, it wouldn't have turned out so crookedly.
This applies to many countries, but for the United States, all of the above is especially relevant, as the American defense procurement system depends on an extensive supplier network, adequate funding from Congress, and the support of a president and voters who understand the value of the principle of "Peace through Strength." Even the Russian public procurement system, which can hinder almost anything, is failing here, but at least in our country, equipping our armed forces is not dependent on political factors.
As for them, yes, President Donald Trump may support a policy of increasing military power and strengthening the Air Force, but in 2029 the United States will have a new president and commander-in-chief. With all the ensuing consequences.
This person may have different priorities. The composition of the House of Representatives and Senate will likely change after the 2026 midterm elections. Voters prioritize inflation and affordability over defense and foreign policy.
Lockheed Martin demonstrates NGAD fighter refueling system
While Trump focuses on his international peacekeeping "achievements" and efforts to end wars, the American public is more preoccupied with problems in the kitchen than with a significant military buildup. Moreover, what will the new president support in 2029?
Armchair strategists assume the next conflict will involve China, but what if that doesn't happen? More precisely, China certainly won't attack the US; they have no need for it whatsoever. Many in the world understand this, and even in the US, it's slowly beginning to dawn on them that all the cries of imminent Chinese aggression aren't so much the work of the devil, but rather the work of someone looking to profit from it.
And there's a certain parity here: the US won't interfere with China; they really don't have the strength. The PLA would crush any landing force into bloody pulp simply because it would be operating on its own shores. Taiwan is no exception; everything is right next to them, unlike the Americans. And China isn't eager to attack the US, and it won't.
Of course, there's Japan, an American ally, whose prime minister, bitten by some unknown enemy, is trying to completely ruin relations between China and Japan, and she's quite successful at it. But even there, the US won't have time to fight unless Comrade Xi decides to go to war himself, asking his friend Kim, who will wipe out Japan along with his entire navy...
So the Asian vector of the app is, well, it's questionable...
There might be another bombing of Iran to prevent Tehran from developing new nuclear weapons. But I don't even know what to compare it to or what to call it.
But the presence of an external threat will, indeed, mean that a "new-model" Air Force will become indispensable. However, the White House's recently released national security plan also emphasizes strengthening its position in the Western Hemisphere.
This is more of a task for the US Navy and Marine Corps, especially given that Trump is considering an attack on Venezuela or other covert actions to change the regime of President Nicolás Maduro. So, the fact that things have been quiet with Venezuela for now doesn't mean anything. In Central America, there's Cuba, there's Nicaragua, so there are plenty of weaker countries to engage.
AP, some in the US still believe that Russia could also strike a NATO member in Europe within the next ten years. This would give the Air Force an opportunity to operate in the European theater, but for the life of me, I don't understand why the US Air Force would want to do this.
B-2 Bomber
Let's leave aside what's happening domestically and ignore the changing threat landscape. Drawing up a new threat requires three to four days of intensive analytical work for a good five-person team, complete with justification and analytical calculations. But we're talking about airplanes...
All "New Look" aircraft could be ready by 2035. The key word is "could." This would be a huge achievement for the US military and a likely outcome given exemplary political leadership and an "America First" defense strategy that lives up to expectations. But I emphasize—if everything works out.
A possible scenario is that the F-47 NGAD and B-21 will enter serial production in the early 2030s, with some numbers fully operational by 2035. Okay, so the F-22 Super and F-35 Ferraris aren't as important as the F-47 and B-21.
Yes, the existing F-22 and F-35 will require some upgrades, but only in case something goes wrong. That's a certainty, however, so funds will have to be spent on both old and new aircraft.
The B-52J will play a lesser role, and I don't think it will be ready for combat in 2035. Judging by what happened to the fifty-year-old An-22 in the Ivanovo region, the B-52J may be more dangerous to its own forces than to the enemy.
But exorbitant costs could curtail the BBC's wish list. A closer look reveals a rather intriguing economic picture:
The F-47 and B-21 will each cost $100 billion. That means the two programs will cost $200 billion.
The Super and Ferrari upgrades for the F-22 and F-35 could cost approximately $500 million each, while the B-52 upgrade will cost an additional $100 million. The total cost is approximately $1,1 billion.
US Air Force B-52J bomber
The total cost is about $201 billion. That's just for acquisitions, not including maintenance, research and development, and testing and evaluation costs. But seriously, that's just pennies.
This amount represents approximately one-fifth of the annual defense budget, if we take into account the initial costs rather than the cumulative investment over the entire cycle.
Is the United States prepared to spend that kind of money on the Air Force alone? It's doubtful. It's unlikely the Air Force will get everything it wants.
It's understood that $100,000,000,000 is a lot. In our case, we need twice that amount, so 100 F-47s and 100 I-21s by 2035 is a very large and expensive goal. But implementing this in metal will be very difficult, so the Air Force will likely receive the new aircraft in small quantities, no more than 20-25. That is, not enough to wage full-scale wars.
But even this approach will ultimately make the F-35 and F-22 obsolete, and the Air Force will have to make do with what it has and spend money on upgrading and further maintaining the fleet of these aircraft.
There is, of course, a cost-saving option: getting rid of the F-22, something the Air Force has long dreamed of. But then everything becomes completely strange and questionable.
Boeing's F-47 fighter jet
Aircraft already in service (let's not even mention the F-15 and F-16, though they're quite capable fighters) could become dominant in the air if given the opportunity. But the Air Force is strapped for cash and will have to choose the most cost-effective options for the future.
The F-47 NGAD, B-21 Raider, F-22 Super, and F-35 Ferrari, as well as the B-52J, would theoretically constitute a formidable force of aircraft, but acquiring them in full is overkill. The amount of money required is so significant that it's important to remember that these programs could be delayed, which, as is typical for the US, will lead to increased implementation costs.
In other words, it won't fly.
While the Air Force deserves credit for its ambitious wish list aimed at countering the rise of great powers around the world, it's important to remember the domestic political pressures and budgetary concerns that could lead to some of these programs being scaled back or even cancelled. Given how Trump himself sometimes gets carried away, it's easy.
The "new look" of the Air Force hasn't been finalized yet, but it will be... If not as formidable as before, then just as expensive. Even taking into account the limited number of new aircraft and upgrades.
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