About “Victory with the help of F-16”
Less than a month has passed since I started thinking about hunting drones The Perfect Drone Hunter, and events took on a truly unique form. And the most interesting thing here is that a certain point of view on the events was formed by both Americans and Ukrainians, among those who soberly assess the situation.
It's worth diving into a little history And remember what those Ukrainian politicians said when they were extorting planes for themselves. "We'll sweep it away with an iron broom," "We'll turn the tide of the war," "We'll leave no chance for victory," and so on. Minister Kuleba was especially good, demonstrating that he could put together sentences of more than five words.
Quite a decent amount of time has passed, but what do we actually have?
But in fact, this is how it works: if you take the regions of Central Ukraine, Ternopil, Khmelnytskyi, Vinnytsia, the situation is like this: first, the "Motoshahids" fly. Then, the "Geran" jets. Then the winged ones arrive. missiles and they fly separately from the sea. Defense starts to act out something meaningful, but more and more often this whole circus calmly flies north towards Kyiv and the Dnieper. And after all this flying circus, the stage is taken by aviation APU.
In other words, Ukrainian aircraft drivers are given the order to take off only when everyone is absolutely certain that all is well. The missile carriers have returned to their harbors, the MiG-31s have also headed to their airfields, and there is no threat.
It's all quite logical, because losing the "superweapon" Kyiv had so much hoped for would be simply stupid. And proof of this is yet another Su-27, which failed to evade a Russian air-to-air missile in the Kharkiv region just the other day.
Somehow, it turned out that the "iron broom" of Ukrainian F-16s, which was supposed to sweep everything from the Ukrainian skies, mutated into humble drone hunters. And even then, quietly, so that the enemy wouldn't see them and take advantage of them.
But at least something will work out in this field. Perhaps.
Frankly, so much has been said about the F-16 being a whipping boy in the context of the conflict in Ukraine that I don't want to repeat it. But as a fighter against drones and slow cruise missiles, it's adequate. Although, of course, a cheaper, two-seater aircraft would be more appropriate.
But, as the saying goes, for lack of a maid... An F-16 will do. The million-dollar question arose regarding armament. Destroying Geraniums, which cost $0,05 million, with AIM-120 missiles, which cost $1,095 million, is difficult, even at someone else's expense. It's clear that the US has churned out over 20,000 of these missiles, but that doesn't mean they should be shipped off to Kyiv in droves to shoot down Geraniums.
We must somehow not forget about the economy, and this is not the economy at all.
It is clear that Ukraine is in dire need of inexpensive and mass-produced anti-aircraft systems and anti-drone missiles, therefore APKWS II in combination with F-16 fighters to combat drones and some cruise missiles became almost a light at the end of the tunnel.
Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System II (APKWS II) 70mm laser-guided missiles are now apparently part of the arsenal of Ukrainian F-16 Viper fighters. This comes as no surprise, given that the missiles have provided the Ukrainian Air Force with an extremely valuable and, most importantly, inexpensive option for countering drones and long-range subsonic cruise missiles.
Presumably, the first Ukrainian F-16AM fighters to receive the new armament were aircraft from the 107th Separate Aviation Regiment. A photograph in terrible quality was published on the Avia OFN channel on the social network Telegram. The aircraft's armament, in addition to a pair of 70mm LAU-131/A rocket pods with seven rockets armed with APKWS II missiles, also included AIM-9 Sidewinder air-to-air missiles and AN/AAQ-33 Sniper Advanced Targeting Pod (ATP).
It's worth noting that Ukraine has been using APKWS II in combat for some time, albeit from ground-based launchers as surface-to-air and surface-to-surface missiles. This hasn't achieved much success, apparently due to guidance issues and the missiles' short range.
The additional capability to launch laser-guided missiles from Ukrainian Air Force F-16 fighters would be a significant asset. Ukrainian Vipers are used to intercept Russian attack drones and long-range cruise missiles, but their effectiveness is very limited.
The APKWS II has not proven to be anything exceptional as an anti-aircraft missile, and it has clear cost advantages over traditional air-to-air missiles.
Each APKWS II missile consists of three main components: a 70mm rocket motor, one of several standard warheads, and a guidance and control unit. The guidance and control unit is the most expensive of the three components, costing approximately $15,000. The warhead and motor add another several thousand dollars to the overall cost, which typically ranges from $20,000 to $25,000. By comparison, modern variants of the AIM-120 cost approximately $1 million per unit, and the latest versions of the AIM-9X cost approximately $500,000.
A version of the APKWS II specifically optimized for airborne use was also developed, variously known as the AGR-20F or the Airborne Fixed-Wing Aircraft Countermeasures (FALCO) system. The FALCO configuration incorporates a high-explosive warhead with a proximity fuse, as well as modifications to the munition's guidance and detection algorithms to improve its effectiveness against aerial threats. It is unknown whether Ukraine has received versions of the APKWS II from FALCO, but most likely not. Deliveries of the first APKWS II models are more likely.
But this, overall, significantly increases the capabilities of Ukrainian aircraft. If, instead of two air-to-air missiles, you hang two Kolobakhs with seven missiles each, that's an extra 12 missiles that can be used against drones. And it's already been noted that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have "double" pylons, which allow two pods to be hung on a single pylon. And this is truly beautiful. Well, almost beautiful.
Using APKWS II as weapons Air-to-air missiles have their limitations, even when used in the Falcon configuration. The missiles don't operate on a "fire and forget" basis, and each target must be kept within the laser beam aimed at it throughout the entire process. This impacts the speed with which aircraft equipped with this weapon can respond to multiple threats. In this case, so-called "buddy tracking," where one aircraft designates a target for another, can be useful.
Overall, using a single-seat F-16 isn't a good idea. A pilot has more to do in combat than keep a drone within the laser rangefinder's sights. That's why Ukrainian aircraft prefer to operate deep behind enemy lines, where the likelihood of Russian missiles appearing is minimal.
APKWS II's prime contractor, BAE Systems, is currently developing a dual-mode guidance package that includes an infrared seeker enabling a "fire and forget" approach, largely to address this very issue. The new guidance option will also enhance the munition's capabilities and flexibility when used in air-to-air or air-to-ground modes. This is a long-term solution, but it's a matter of time.
It's important to emphasize that the APKWS II can be used against drones and subsonic cruise missiles, primarily because these targets are relatively stable in flight, unresponsive to enemy actions, and have lower performance. These missiles are not designed for air-to-air combat.
As mentioned, Ukrainian F-16s can also use APKWS II against ground targets, which is their original purpose. Laser-guided missiles offer similar cost savings and ammunition capacity when used as precision-guided, low-cost air-to-surface munitions, which can be used against stationary or moving targets.
It's important to remember that the APKWS II has a range of no more than 10 km. This means it can engage ground targets, but only in areas where a Wasp or Thor missile won't respond. And they can arrive anywhere. In fact, an archaic laser illumination system 10 km from the front line is simply an invitation for F-16 executioners to line up.
In addition to the APKWS II, the Sniper ATP system itself is another important component for Ukrainian F-16s. The system contains electro-optical and infrared cameras, a laser designator and marker, and can also generate target coordinates for GPS-guided munitions. It can be used for more general air-to-ground surveillance and reconnaissance missions, and also has a secondary capability for detecting and identifying air-to-air targets.
In reality, this is all a "poor man's kit." Clearly, economics is at play here, as the transfer of APKWS II to Kyiv should primarily reduce the need for more traditional and expensive air-to-air and air-to-ground missiles from US and NATO stockpiles.
The situation itself is quite comical: instead of normal aircraft, we have F-16AMs from the first production runs, which I'm sure aren't in the best technical condition, and instead of modern missiles, we have laser-guided NURSs.
Even a Toucan with a mounted radar and Sniper ATP pod would look much more realistic. It's important to understand that the Toucan's top speed is about 700 km/h, its cruising speed is about 500 km/h, and its stall speed is a mere 150 km/h. What does all this mean? It means that the Toucan would be very comfortable in a flock of Geraniums. The aircraft flies at roughly the same speed as the drones, can maneuver quite well, and most importantly, there will be an organism in the cockpit that will keep the UAV in the laser beam and wait for the missile to reach its target.
The F-16AM looks very sad here. Its maximum speed isn't that important; it can catch any aircraft in Ukrainian skies. But its minimum speed is a completely different matter. 300-350 km/h is the F-16's stall speed, and there's nothing you can do about it. So, after catching a swarm of drones, the F-16 pilot finds himself in a difficult situation: on the one hand, he has to somehow aim the laser at the UAV and launch missiles, but on the other, he has to keep the aircraft stable and prevent it from spinning, because the targets (except cruise missiles) are quite slow.
In general, it would all look very funny if it weren't so funny.
The F-16 was positioned as a weapon that could turn the tide of the entire war in Ukraine. "An iron broom," which... The rest can be read in the speeches of a not-so-successful Austrian-born politician, sometime around 1944.
In reality, they turned out to be cowardly fighters, flying only in areas where they definitely couldn't run into an Su-35 or Su-57, not to mention Russian air defense systems. No, the reckless Su-27 pilot who was shot down in the Kharkiv region deserves respect, if only for the fact that he was carried into a real hell. It's hard to say what he was trying to portray, but in any case, his chances weren't great.
And the "heroes" on the much-hyped American planes, chasing the Geraniums in Central Ukraine – oh yes, that's exactly how the tides of wars are turned, that's exactly how wars are won.
They're not very good at handling drones either. It's ridiculous. They've been terrifying us with this, so many "experts" have written so many words, telling us how everything will change. But in reality... In reality, it's just a simulation and nothing more. Well, someone's bills have gone up, but that's none of our business.
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