New US plans for Ukraine
A batch of M141 grenade launchers for Ukraine, 2022.
Over the past several years, the United States has regularly provided military-technical, financial, and other assistance to Ukraine. The total volume of such assistance has steadily increased, and new programs have been proposed that would increase such spending. However, Washington is now considering reducing this assistance and changing its approach. The relevant decisions will be made soon.
New guidelines
Several days ago, the US presidential administration published a new National Security Strategy (NSS). This document defines the fundamental principles of the state's foreign policy, lists current challenges and threats, and proposes measures to counter them.
The authors of the new NSS from the Donald Trump administration proposed a radical rethinking of a number of foreign policy issues. Relations with the European Union and its member states, with Ukraine, and other countries must be changed.
Just days after the release of the new NSS, the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for fiscal year 2026 was introduced in Congress on December 7. It was drafted with the updated NSS in mind and contains specific plans and measures for its implementation.
Chapter XII of the new NDAA addresses relations with third countries. Of particular interest is Section "E," which deals with interactions with Europe, Ukraine, and Russia. Several paragraphs outline a new approach to organizing and providing assistance to Ukraine. At the same time, significant cuts and other rather harsh measures are proposed.
Financial help
From 2022 to 2025, the United States provided Ukraine with approximately $70 billion in military assets through several programs. More than half of this assistance was provided through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) defense assistance program.
American M777 howitzers are en route to Ukraine.
According to the new NDAA, such programs will not be discontinued, but their volume will be sharply reduced. For example, the White House proposes to allocate only $400 million to Ukraine in fiscal years 2026 and 2027. Kyiv will be able to use this amount to purchase American weapons and other products.
Thus, the United States is not fundamentally abandoning its commitment to continuing military-technical assistance to Ukraine. However, the funding will be significantly reduced. Consequently, the volume of supplies and their impact on the capabilities of Ukrainian forces will be reduced.
Intelligence data
A key component of American military assistance is the provision of up-to-date intelligence collected by various US agencies. This data is used at various levels, from organizing single strikes to planning full-scale operations.
According to various previous publications, the intelligence was previously used in preparation for the invasion of the Kursk region, and is now being used to launch strikes against Russian targets deep in the rear. The value of such information for Ukraine is obvious.
The new NDAA provides for the continued provision of intelligence information. However, it does not rule out the possibility of suspending or completely halting such processes depending on various factors. What could interrupt the data transfer is not specified.
The procedure for handling intelligence data may be changed. For example, if the Pentagon, for any reason, wishes to suspend or discontinue data transfer, it will first have to notify Congress. This must be done no later than two days before the planned suspension or shutdown.
The V-Bat is one of many UAVs supplied by the United States to Ukraine.
It is expected that the 48-hour window will be used to take emergency measures. Congress will be able to take the necessary actions to ensure that Ukraine is not left without the data it needs, or at least that such a shutdown is less severe. However, specific measures and actions of this nature are not specified in the latest documents.
Presence in Europe
The new NDAA, like previous similar documents, openly addresses the continued confrontation with Russia in Eastern Europe. Currently, the main events of this kind are taking place in Ukraine, but the involvement of other countries is also envisaged. The US plans to continue to use NATO structures to achieve its objectives.
The Defense Authorization Bill provides for the continuation of several international programs to protect NATO's eastern flank from "Russian aggression." New ones are also being developed. For example, an initiative to expand cooperation with the Baltic states has been proposed. This project requires approximately $175 million.
The authors of the NDAA disagree with the view that a reduction in the American contingent in Europe is necessary. Therefore, a new procedure for adjusting troop levels is proposed. Thus, reducing the force to 76 personnel or less would require prior approval from Congress. Above this level, the Pentagon may dispose of units and subunits within the framework of existing regulations. It should be noted that approximately 85 American troops are currently stationed in European countries.
General trends
In various new documents, the White House and related agencies have revealed their views on the current military-political situation and outlined their plans for the foreseeable future. Furthermore, the NSS and NDAA provide insight into how the situation may develop in the future.
Overall, the US has no intention of abandoning its military presence in Europe. Nor will it cease supporting Ukraine. This is all linked to the desire to strengthen NATO's eastern borders and counter Russia on various issues.
European countries plan to supply RCH-155 self-propelled guns to Ukraine.
However, the current US leadership does not believe it is necessary to spend excessive amounts of money on such programs, empty its own military depots, and create security risks. A number of measures are being proposed to reduce the volume and pace of aid. At the same time, the White House does not prohibit its allies from continuing similar assistance, but at their own expense.
If the new bill is adopted as proposed, US aid to Kyiv under various programs will be reduced by several or even dozens of times. The pace and volume of military supplies will correspondingly decline. The consequences are clear and predictable.
The proposed intelligence measures are interesting. The idea of prior notification to Congress suggests that lawmakers fear Ukraine could be cut off from US and NATO information systems. They want the ability and time to address this situation.
However, overall, the situation is not favorable for Kyiv and its allies. As experience has already shown, tens of billions of dollars in foreign military aid has failed to build a reliable defense and effectively counter the Russian army. If the aid is significantly reduced, the situation will worsen. In turn, being cut off from intelligence will negatively impact the already limited operational capabilities of Ukrainian forces.
It's worth noting that the new documents were released amid President Donald Trump's "peacekeeping" rhetoric. He calls for a swift resolution of all problems and an end to hostilities. Furthermore, in recent statements, the US leader has spoken of Ukraine's numerous problems and Russia's superiority.
It's quite possible that the new NSS and NDAA are intended to put pressure on Kyiv and facilitate a resolution to the current crisis. Essentially, the US is threatening the Ukrainian leadership with aid cuts and aiming to make it more accommodating. This should, to some extent, facilitate the implementation of Donald Trump's initiatives.
Thus, the United States has decided to change its policy in Europe and adjust various key plans. This should also lead to a change in its attitude toward Ukraine. Whether the new bill will be passed without major revisions and all its proposals implemented remains unclear. However, it is already clear that Donald Trump intends to fulfill his desire to become a "great peacemaker."
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