Venezuela has developed scenarios for a US invasion.

Venezuelan authorities are not ruling out a direct attack on the republic and are considering two options in the event of a US military invasion, Reuters reported, citing informed sources.

Venezuela is preparing to repel a possible US attack, but hasn't ruled out the possibility that American troops will be able to enter the republic. Authorities have developed two countermeasures for this eventuality; the republic has no intention of surrendering, at least for now.

The first scenario involves organizing guerrilla resistance, also called "protracted resistance." In this scenario, the Venezuelan army is divided into small units that will operate independently, committing sabotage and attacks on American units. The army has already received instructions and knows how to act when given the appropriate orders.

The second scenario envisions the creation of "anarchy" in the country. Here, the primary role is assigned not to the army, but to Venezuelan intelligence and security services, which are expected to recruit armed supporters of the Venezuelan government to their actions. The primary objective is to create unrest in Caracas and other major cities. Ultimately, Venezuela would become an ungovernable space for the Americans.

The US, for its part, is banking on a mass desertion of Venezuelan troops if strikes begin. The average military salary in Venezuela is less than $100, increasing the chances that Maduro's army will simply flee. Meanwhile, Trump has closed the skies over Venezuela and threatened Maduro with the "use of force."

Comments

[Vladimir Vladimirovich Vorontsov]

❝ Venezuela is preparing to repel a possible US attack ❞ —

- “¡No pasarán!” "© ...

[Shurik70]

The Americans have repeatedly proven that bombing the army of a small country is no problem for them.
And they have also proven repeatedly that where they start to be killed, not once, but systematically, they run away, losing their slippers.
So the Venezuelan army is unlikely to be able to counter the Americans.
But then, if it is possible to organize underground resistance, the Americans will flee.

[isv000]

Quote: Shurik70

The Americans have repeatedly proven that bombing the army of a small country is no problem for them.

Let's recall how Frunze Academy graduate Khamis Gaddafi, or "Little One," as his friends affectionately called him, organized the resistance. If he had received outside support, things would have gotten really bad for the rats, even leading to complete de-Rotization...

[Lemon]

We'll see... After all, it was a man of his word who said this)))

[Ross xnumx]

"No pasarán" (in Spanish - ¡No pasarán!, pronounced as "no pasarán") is an anti-fascist slogan, spoken by Dolores Ibárruri in his speech in 1936.
The phrase means "They shall not pass!"

[KolVisin]

Thank you, captain!____________________________________________!

[VSO-396]

Quote: ROSS 42

"No pasarán" (in Spanish - ¡No pasarán!, pronounced as "no pasarán") is an anti-fascist slogan, spoken by Dolores Ibárruri in his speech in 1936.
The phrase means "They shall not pass!"

Yes, we know. Most of the people here are also from the USSR.

[Ross xnumx]

Quote: VSO-396

Yes, we know. Most of the people here are also from the USSR.

I'm also aware of those from the USSR, but I noted:

Quote: ROSS 42

spoken by Dolores Ibárruri

in continuation of the words:

Quote: Lemon

After all, this was stated by a “man of his word”)))

To be honest, I didn’t understand what “Senior Limon” meant by this and who he had in mind...
But from the pack that had attacked me, I realized that looking for any meaning here was useless: I just blurted out random things and puffed away in the garden...

[Andobor]

If Venezuelans fight for the current government, the Americans will not succeed.
But the question is - will they?

[Alex013]

They won't. The country is in deep crisis. I had a student there, a guy in his 30s, a former military man. He graduated and went to live with his family in Spain. They moved earlier because they had the means, except for grandparents and farmers, who wouldn't go. Others went to Brazil, Colombia, and the like. I didn't say anything good or bad about Maduro. It's not Maduro who's to blame for the crisis, but the US and its sanctions. And the neighbors: Colombia, Brazil, Guyana. I think they'll jump in right away. If there are (God forbid) missile strikes, they'll be held accountable for a ground operation. And Latin America, the US's underbelly, has always been its primary/main sphere of influence. That's why they're called "gringos" there; they hate us, but they're afraid. Cuba and Nicaragua fought back because the USSR was still in place.

[bayard]

Quote: Alex013

They won't. The country is in deep crisis.

If there's help (from Russia, China, Iran, etc.), they will. And help is already coming. To cheer up the people, China only needs to send a couple of container ships full of consumer goods there as aid, so the people will cheer up and realize they haven't been abandoned. There are two Russian missile ships (48 Tsirkon missiles on board) near Venezuela, and what they've brought in over the past few months is completely unclear. Only the air defenses are known, but there's far more to it. Drones have been brought in, too. If strikes on Caracas begin, oil refineries along the entire US East Coast will go up in flames. It will be spectacular, and the US has already warned about this. They also said that the assets of Rubio's sponsors will be the highest-priority targets.
Our private military companies and military specialists are already there, and not only ours. And not only everyone wants to create a new Vietnam for the US today – there are few who don't want that.

Quote: Alex013

Why did Cuba and Nicaragua fight back? Because there was the USSR.

History often repeats itself in a new twist, and sometimes in a more brutal form.
Rubio and his sponsors have literally brought the United States to the brink of world war and ultimate destruction. But Trump promised his voters something completely different. And he remembers his promises. He promised to make America Great Again, not a Great Radioactive Desert...
Rubio will of course be appointed as the scapegoat.
And Trump has someone to replace him.
But for now, the show goes on.

[Alex013]

I agree, but there are some issues. The main thing is that our allies don't turn their backs. Like with Libya, Yugoslavia (not yet Serbia), and Syria. Our private military companies were definitely there three years ago, and now they're probably working really hard. And as for the US, let's remember Grenada and the 784 Cuban construction workers versus American special forces...

[bayard]

Quote: Alex013

The main thing is that the allies don't turn away. Like they did with Libya, Yugoslavia (not yet Serbia), and Syria.

Things are different now than they were yesterday. If our ships and aircraft (and they say there were vessels there too) are unloading there, then we're not going to abandon them. The US's hopes (if they have any) for Brazil in this matter are unlikely to be justified – China is working closely with Brazil, and it's a member of BRICS. If a decision is made, and the air defenses have already been strengthened, then combat aircraft could fly to Venezuela. And our ships are there. With Zircons. Try and touch them.
But most likely, if the US does decide to resort to aggression, the bet will be on luring US Marines into an amphibious operation and setting them on a "jungle fire." And on drone strikes against US oil refineries on the coast.
I don’t think that Trump will decide to go crazy (although he desperately pretends to do so), most likely at the last moment he will... once again “Save the World” and “stop the war”.

[Saburov_Alexander53]

Bayard, what drones are you talking about, for strikes on US oil refineries on the coast? Where would they take off from? The distance from Venezuela to Florida alone is about 2000 km, and even further to the east coast. The options are limited, and I doubt Venezuela has such drones.
But more than that, I'm perplexed by the Venezuelan army's combat effectiveness after two decades of utter chaos and crisis in the country. I was there, in fact, when Hugo Chávez was still alive, and right when Muammar Gaddafi arrived to see him. I saw the welcoming motorcade drive through Margarita Island and the ecstatic crowds in the streets, waiting all day with flags and dancing. And I even managed to get a small Russian flag and wave it from the back of a pickup truck... The crowd, delighted and ecstatic, almost gave chase to our car. But this carnival crowd would greet anyone with the same ecstasy and would even dance on Maduro's corpse, just as they danced on Gaddafi's in Libya.
We'll see, of course, but it seems to me that there is nothing there like what was in Cuba under Fidel or in the DPRK under any leader.

[bayard]

Quote: Saburov_Alexander53

We'll see, of course, but it seems to me that there is nothing there like what was in Cuba under Fidel or in the DPRK under any leader.

Of course, we'll see. The US also considered Cuba its brothel; there was no industry there at all (except for the sugar industry) besides casinos and nightclubs – it was a resort island. And look how it turned out. And not only everyone knows how the Cubans fought and know how to fight. So, life will certainly show, but neither numerous coup attempts, nor constant threats of aggression, nor a long-term sanctions blockade have broken the people of Venezuela. They are genuinely preparing for war. Yes, the public is southern, hot-tempered, emotional, but they truly hate the US and don't want a return to its dictatorship. They truly felt concern for the poor – 90% lived in favelas, now perhaps a little less. Maduro built social housing and resettled slums into quite comfortable apartment buildings. Besides, our people are there, our Wagner guys, who were already there and gave the mercenary gangs from neighboring Colombia a hard time (those who were there back then told us). And we don't know what they've brought in there recently.

Quote: Saburov_Alexander53

What drones are you talking about, for strikes on US oil refineries on the coast? Where will they take off from? The distance from Venezuela to Florida alone is about 2000 km, and even further to the east coast. The choice is limited, and I doubt Venezuela has such drones.

Maduro requested them from Iran. Iran has them. And these drones will fly at ships, discharging air defenses. Remember how the Yemeni Houthis chased NATO ships, and even US aircraft carriers. Now the same will happen in the Caribbean.
Just start here, such guerrilla warfare could break out across the entire region. If there's support. If there are interested parties for it. Look, they supported Vietnam, and what did that cost the US? And they supported Cuba at the time - it's still standing, not a lick. Moreover, Venezuela felt the support and their enthusiasm increased. Besides, Latinos are not only a hot-blooded people, they can be very stubborn. And vengeful - there's a lot of Spanish blood there.

Quote: Saburov_Alexander53

And our ships are there. With "Zircons". Try to touch them.
And no one is going to touch them... But ours won't lift a finger either when Tomahawks fly at the garrisons on the shore and even at the Venezuelan ships at the neighboring pier.

You're wrong. That's not why the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty was signed and ratified on the eve of the events (and even during them). If Tomahawks are launched, the Admiral Gorshkov will shoot them down, repelling the raids alongside Venezuela's air defenses, replenish its cells, and repel them again. And if the US, in the blink of an eye, shoots down our transport aircraft, sinks or damages a merchant ship, or even attacks our ships... The response will be direct and immediate – to kill. Perhaps not even from the ship itself, but from a large missile complex on the shore (Tsirkons fly very well from ground-based TPUs), or perhaps even a salvo against the entire American squadron.

Quote: Saburov_Alexander53

Do you really think that we will get involved in this fight openly?

If the issue comes down to it, we'll get involved. If our ship, plane, or merchant vessel is attacked. That's why the ships are there. And that's precisely why our media isn't saying a word about it.
But I hope it doesn't come to an outright war there – for Trump, a protracted war, especially close to his own borders, and against Latinos at that… that would be the end. And he needs a victory. A victory in the US – in the elections. In Venezuela, he'll definitely get his ass kicked, so he'll go around in circles, making threats and offering deals, and then… he'll save the world and stop/prevent another war.

[Saburov_Alexander53]

And if the US, before you know it, shoots down our transport plane, sinks or damages a merchant ship, or even attacks our ships...

The US won't shoot down our transport plane... but we won't send it there either if a war breaks out. Furthermore, I doubt any of our ships or vessels will remain docked in Venezuelan ports, much less participate in repelling an air attack. That would be direct participation in military action, and we took on such commitments with difficulty in Syria, ostensibly defending our bases and facilities. But there's nothing of the sort in the strategic partnership agreement with Venezuela... it's just the usual blah-blah-blah about arms supplies, not participation in a war.
My only hope is that Trump, as always, is bluffing and will back off at the last moment, just as he did with North Korea... But there are two big differences with North Korea, as you can imagine. Besides Maduro's lack of a nuclear weapon, there's a huge difference in domestic support and the people's "carnival" mentality. I'll tell you more: I sense a completely different situation in Cuba than it was initially and for many years under Fidel. The contagion, or bourgeois virus of decay, has deeply affected Cuba, too, where young people have lost faith in the ideals of socialism. And if or when free internet access is granted there, the process of decay will accelerate even more.
And one more thing. They all see how we fawn and flirt with Trump, trying to sideline the US in Ukraine, and they understand that if we fawn so much, then what will they do in such a situation?
Does the example of Iran's defeat ring a bell? Venezuela doesn't have even a tenth of what Iran has, and geography isn't in their favor... Ultimately, they'll figure out and catch Maduro, like General Soleimani, sink the entire fleet, and leave the country in ruins. And then they'll bribe the military brass and install their own Pinochet there... That's my prediction for the future. Let's see whose prediction turns out to be correct.

[bayard]

Quote: Saburov_Alexander53

Let's see whose prediction turns out to be correct.

I have several possible scenarios regarding Venezuela; I've only outlined one of them; I won't discuss the others. Because we don't know what Trump and Putin agreed on in Anchorage. Meanwhile, the White House is getting ready for Christmas... "Russian Style."
Of course, I myself do not believe that the US will shoot down our plane or, even more so, strike our ship (Kazan does not count, it is wandering under water somewhere), but now a certain scenario is playing out and completely different tasks are being solved.

[Saburov_Alexander53]

And our ships are there. With "Zircons". Try to touch them.

And no one's going to touch them... But our guys won't lift a finger either when Tomahawks are flying at the garrisons on the shore and even Venezuelan ships at the neighboring pier. Do you really think we'll get involved in this fight? open way?

[VSO-396]

Bayard, remember the early 90s here? If something similar had happened then, would many people have gone to defend the country on a $5 salary? Well, it was even worse back then; at least we had some moral compass. What's the point of saying that out of a country of 30 million, 9 million emigrated!

[bayard]

Quote: VSO-396

Of the country's 30 million people, 9 million emigrated!

Well, that means those who definitely won't defend have left. We'll see how it goes. If China is interested, they'll provide the money to pay for the army. To cheer people up, I already wrote about a couple of container ships with consumer goods, made from surplus stock that wasn't shipped to the US due to sanctions. And people will immediately cheer up. That's the point: if they used to pay a soldier $100, and they start paying him $500, or even $1000, that's an immediate incentive.
But I really don't understand how it's possible to live poorly in such a climate, especially with such oil reserves? There's no oil in Cuba or Nicaragua. Here, it's super heavy, but there's plenty. Coffee and cocoa grow there in abundance, the nuts are the size of your fist, there's an abundance of fresh water (and swamps) - create irrigation and flowing ponds, raise fish, you won't even have to go to sea. It's summer all year round, there's plenty of fodder - livestock and poultry farming. Just a little bit of brains and effort and it's literally heaven on earth... and even a year-round resort.

[Graz]

I don't think there will be a landing or a ground invasion. There could be missile and air strikes on headquarters, government officials, and critical infrastructure.

[HAM]

It will be "their favorite" - a continuous bombing... "Yankee lives are important", they won't go to the ground, even with minimal resistance they won't go...

[KolVisin]

I believe these strikes will "completely coincidentally" target facilities of the Chinese oil company China Concord Resources Corp., which signed a 20-year contract with Venezuela in 2024 to develop oil fields.

[VSZMK]

Some experts are talking about a "surgical" strike against Maduro, similar to the drone attack Trump ordered against General Soleimani during his first term.

[Alexander Elizarov]

The average salary for military personnel in Venezuela does not exceed $100, which increases the chance that Maduro's army will simply flee.

I think Maduro understands perfectly well that such a woeful "army" will not be able to put up organized resistance, so he either asks the Americans for negotiations or marches with a saber to encourage his citizens.

Venezuela is a good example of the saying "whoever doesn't want to feed his own army will feed someone else's."

[Ross xnumx]

Quote: mt3276

Venezuela is a good example of the saying "whoever doesn't want to feed his own army will feed someone else's."

The main thing here is not to overfeed! And feed the one who is really in the army...

[Nyrobsky]

Quote: mt3276

I think Maduro understands perfectly well that such a woeful "army" will not be able to put up organized resistance, so he either asks the Americans for negotiations or marches with a saber to encourage his citizens.

Venezuela is a good example of the saying "whoever doesn't want to feed his own army will feed someone else's."

Don't you think it's a bit premature to draw any conclusions? Has Venezuela already fallen?
Mattresses have been tumbling around with the Taliban in Afghanistan for 20 years without much success, but Venezuela, with its mountains and tropics, will probably be more difficult.

[faridg7]

Now is the perfect time for Maduro to negotiate, not with Trump, but with someone in the Middle East, someone who can add fuel to the smoldering fire. The Yankee-in-Chief will immediately have other things on his mind than Venezuela.

[Starover_Z]

Quote: Nyrobsky

Don't you think it's a bit premature to draw any conclusions? Has Venezuela already fallen?

The Americans, like their counterparts in the Middle East who drove out Iranian commanders and scientists, could try to destroy the president and his inner circle in Venezuela.

[Carlos Hall]

Let's see what Venezuela is capable of. The most reliable and trained army in Latin America is Chile's. Argentina follows. Venezuela is an unknown quantity. They brandish the mystique and sword of the so-called liberator Bolivar. The Cuban army, at least during Fidel's time, was more reliable and better trained, as demonstrated in Angola and the Bay of Pigs. Venezuela's territory is difficult, covered in jungle and mountains. Let's see what General Vladimir Padrino and his army are capable of, as well as the Russian general they sent there.

[Sergej1972]

The most powerful army is probably still the Brazilian army.

[Knut Johanson]

I hope they didn't send those who planned the SVO there.

[snow mountain]

It'll start with the classics, with the bombings. We'll see what happens next.

[Alexander Elizarov]

Quote: Nyrobsky

Quote: mt3276

I think Maduro understands perfectly well that such a woeful "army" will not be able to put up organized resistance, so he either asks the Americans for negotiations or marches with a saber to encourage his citizens.

Venezuela is a good example of the saying "whoever doesn't want to feed his own army will feed someone else's."

Don't you think it's a bit premature to draw any conclusions? Has Venezuela already fallen?
Mattresses have been tumbling around with the Taliban in Afghanistan for 20 years without much success, but Venezuela, with its mountains and tropics, will probably be more difficult.

Cons are not mine.

[Alexander Elizarov]

Quote: ROSS 42

Quote: mt3276

Venezuela is a good example of the saying "whoever doesn't want to feed his own army will feed someone else's."

The main thing here is not to overfeed! And feed the one who is really in the army...

Cons are not mine.

[opuonmed]

I hope the kamikazes have fiber optics and other gadgets of modern warfare ready. And most importantly, they need to somehow get high-altitude reconnaissance drones and destroy the ships themselves. The first thing the US will do is bomb reconnaissance targets and disrupt communications, and they'll try to destroy the government!

[AdAstra]

Venezuela has developed scenarios for an American invasion.
And again, like the beginning of a joke.

[Yuliy]

For Venezuela, in the event of a landing, it is absolutely necessary to send several missiles to US cities... American CORPSES are needed... and the war will end, or, alternatively, blow up something significant in the US

[Ulembeck]

We need American CORPSES

Well, 5 dead people on 9/11 didn't teach them anything. So there should be a lot more of them this time.

[Yuliy]

How many crew members are on an aircraft carrier? A random mine(s) from World War II would be a good bottom house for fish, perhaps. :)

[Yuliy]

The aircraft carrier Gerald R. Ford has a crew of 4660 people...we need to sink something else.

[KTM-5]

The striped "hegemon" can only attack the weak when he is 146% confident in his superiority.
I hope our people and the Chinese supplied the Venezuelans with something interesting to greet the uninvited guests.

[Sebenza]

You and I can only hope that they're not completely lost. Someday, the word "Motherland" will stir their gaze on the toilet. And the enlightened will realize that you can't take anything with you.

[Sebenza]

"The authorities have developed two countermeasures for this eventuality; the republic has no intention of surrendering. At least for now." I beg your pardon, but is this motivation for a fight?

[Knut Johanson]

The Venezuelan army should have been trained in drone warfare and stockpiled with drones. They have MANPADS.

[Knut Johanson]

Venezuela needs to strike first, the war will start anyway.

[multi-category]

The average salary of military personnel in Venezuela does not exceed 100 dollars, which increases the chance

You can't write so stupidly.
Support for the military and generally for people useful to the state is not limited to salaries.
Not a word about that. Just like our soldiers received rations, ate in the canteen, received travel benefits, housing, and an earlier retirement. That's not included in their salary.

[DO]

The first scenario involves organizing guerrilla resistance, also called "protracted resistance." In this scenario, the Venezuelan army would split into small military units that would operate independently, committing acts of sabotage and attacks on American units.

Why hasn't the American invasion happened yet, while centralized command of the Venezuelan army, positional confrontation, organization of army supplies, etc., everything that makes an army an army, are rejected in advance? "Small military units that will act independently" - How will these "independent units" differ from local gangs?

The second scenario envisions the creation of "anarchy" in the country. Here, the primary role is assigned not to the army, but to Venezuelan intelligence and security services, which are expected to recruit armed supporters of the Venezuelan government to their actions. The primary objective is to create unrest in Caracas and other major cities. Ultimately, Venezuela would become an ungovernable space for the Americans.

Essentially, the second scenario assumes the rapid surrender of all of Venezuela to the Americans; centralized resistance is not envisaged.