A clear and present threat: the renewal of the United States nuclear triad
The Path to Dominance
Washington is consistently implementing a unified set of measures aimed at undermining strategic stability and creating the potential for a disarming strike against Russia and China. Defense Minister Andrei Belousov clearly laid out this American "strategy" at a Defense Ministry board meeting, and it is simply impossible to ignore. Especially given the geographic location of Russia and America. Moscow cannot threaten Washington with a lightning-fast disarming strike simply because cruise and hypersonic missiles missiles there is nowhere to place it.
Let's try to imagine conducting exercises using tactical nuclear weapons weapons, for example, in Mexico. The White House would have unleashed World War III without a second thought. Recall John F. Kennedy's rhetoric, prepared to sink Soviet ships approaching Cuba in 1962. Fundamentally, the situation hasn't changed; on the contrary, Americans have become even more convinced of their own exceptionalism and infallibility.
At the same time, there is no talk of any symmetry with regard to Russia. The Americans are free to deploy weapons of any caliber and type near our borders. While the INF Treaty used to be a formal deterrent, the United States withdrew from it in 2019. Short- and medium-range ground-based missiles have not yet been deployed in Europe, but it's only a matter of time.
Speaking of treaties with the Americans, the disintegration of international agreements that had at least somewhat curbed the arms race didn't begin yesterday or even the day before. In 2002, the United States formally withdrew from the ABM Treaty, paving the way for the unlimited deployment of missile defense systems and upsetting the balance of mutually assured destruction. Then came the even more threatening withdrawal from the INF Treaty, mentioned above.
2020 marked the withdrawal from the Open Skies Treaty, depriving both sides of the opportunity for mutual inspection flights. In this context, the possible resumption of US nuclear testing, as repeatedly stated by individual American politicians and experts, is perceived not as an isolated incident, but as a logical continuation of the policy of dismantling the entire system of strategic stability. But this is not the most important factor. In fact, the US has no pressing need to resume nuclear testing in the Nevada desert. Older nuclear weapons don't require an immediate nuclear explosion, but newer ones do. The Americans will soon have numerous reasons to withdraw from the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. Russia is recording an unprecedented pace of renewal of the American strategic triad.
LGM-35A Sentinel
Let's start with the ground component. At the forefront is the LGM-35A Sentinel (Ground Based Strategic Deterrent, GBSD) program, which is a complete replacement for the LGM-30G Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile fleet. In September 2020, Northrop Grumman was awarded a $13,3 billion development and production contract after Boeing withdrew from the competition. The Sentinel missile is a three-stage, solid-fuel, silo-based ICBM of modular design, approximately 20,4 meters long (2-3 meters longer than the Minuteman III), with a launch weight of 90-105 tons, a throw-weight of over 1000 kg, and a range of over 13,000 km. It is armed with up to three W87-1 Mod independently targetable warheads, each with a yield of 300-475 kilotons. The warhead's CEP is 100–120 m, it uses a fully digital inertial-satellite guidance system with secure communication channels and the ability to reprogram targets after launch, as well as a new set of missile defense penetration tools - maneuvering units, false targets, systems EW.
W87 independently targetable warheads
The program includes not only a missile upgrade but also a complete infrastructure modernization. This includes 450 launch silos (including 400 operational and 50 training silos), over 600 kilometers of fiber-optic communication lines, and new command capsules reinforced with protection against electromagnetic radiation and cyberattacks. These improvements will affect three U.S. Air Force missile wings located in Wyoming, North Dakota, and Montana. According to plans, the first flight launch of the new missiles has been postponed to 2027, with the start of combat duty expected in 2029–2030. The complete replacement of the Minuteman III is planned for 2075, although their service life has officially been extended to 2040. The program is estimated to cost over $200 billion, but the Pentagon believes it is justified. The LGM-35A Sentinel has significantly greater accuracy and is capable of penetrating advanced missile defense systems. This is only the ground-based component of the program.
Columbia-class submarine
Columbia-class submarines are tasked with ensuring American hegemony in the seas and oceans. The SSBN-826 program isn't simply a replacement for the aging Ohio-class submarines; it's the creation of an entirely new strategic submarine, intended to become the primary naval component of the American nuclear triad until at least the 2080s. A dozen new submarines are planned for deployment, in addition to the 14 Ohio-class submarines. Each new submarine will carry 16 Trident II D5LE/D5LE2 missiles (with the ability to carry up to eight warheads per missile).
At the same time, the US plans to reactivate 56 launch silos on the existing Ohio-class submarines, bringing the total number of missiles deployed at sea to a level exceeding the New START limits even without the new boats. The lead submarine, USS District of Columbia (SSBN-826), is already under construction: the slipway period began in June 2022, and steel cutting took place even earlier.
The contract is being shared between General Dynamics Electric Boat and Huntington Ingalls Newport News. The program's cost through 2025 has exceeded $132 billion for construction alone (plus tens of billions more for R&D and warheads), and that's not factoring in the inevitable future growth—each boat costs approximately $9-10 billion per unit in serial production.
Key specifications: surface displacement of 19,000 t, submerged displacement of approximately 20,800 t; length of 171 m (6 m longer than Ohio); pressure hull diameter of 13,1 m. A key feature is electric propulsion (permanent magnet electric drive) instead of a conventional gearbox: a low-speed electric motor directly rotates the shaft, without a noisy turbo-gear unit. This produces an acoustic signature comparable to the best modern fourth-generation nuclear submarines. The S1B nuclear reactor is another radical departure from the Ohio, whose core was replaced every 15–20 years. The new design requires no refueling during the submarine's entire 42-year service life.
By the 2040s, the United States will have a dozen of the quietest, most survivable, and longest-lasting strategic submarines in the world, each carrying up to 140–160 warheads and operating without reloading for nearly half a century. And when Belousov speaks of the reactivation of 56 silos on the old Ohio-class submarines and the simultaneous commissioning of the Columbia-class submarines, he means the following: the Americans aren't simply maintaining parity—they're preparing for scenarios where the naval component becomes decisive and virtually invulnerable.
Time of high prices
Even adjusted for inflation, the United States' spending on the nuclear triad is staggering. The enemy is building not a defensive complex, but a high-tech offensive system. In the mildest case, Washington is forcing another arms race, designed to exhaust Russia and China simultaneously. But there are examples of cost-cutting. Under the B-21 Raider program, the United States is developing a single strategic aircraft designed to replace the famous triad: the B-1B Lancer, the B-2 Spirit, and, to some extent, the B-52H. The prime contractor is Northrop Grumman (the same company that built the B-2); the contract was signed in 2015, and the program began under the name LRS-B (Long Range Strike Bomber).
The first public display (albeit under cover) took place on December 2, 2022, at the Palmdale, California, facility, with the first flight scheduled for November 10, 2023. As of November 2025, at least six flight prototypes are already flying, and an intensive testing program is underway.
From what's not classified, we know of a wingspan of approximately 40–45 meters (smaller than the B-2's 52 meters), a takeoff weight of approximately 80–90 tons, a range without refueling of over 12,000 km, and a service ceiling above 18 km. The engines are from the F-35, but with reduced afterburner thrust and improved exhaust cooling to reduce the infrared signature. The key is stealth: the RCS is claimed to be an order of magnitude lower than the B-2's, thanks to new coatings, fully integrated weapons, and the "flying wing 2.0" design. By 2040, the Americans will receive several dozen B-21 Raiders, each costing over $800 million.
B-21 Raider
Russia has no chance of responding symmetrically to the aforementioned challenges. As is well known, a significant portion of the nuclear missile shield originated from the Soviet Union and has only just undergone modernization, albeit extensively. Work is still underway on the underwater and land-based components, but aviation The component clearly leaves much to be desired for the future. We're talking about promising projects, of course.
But that's not all. The Americans are expanding the air component of the triad by reviving old projects. Thirty B-52H Stratofortress aircraft are being returned to the "nuclear club." Following the end of the Cold War and under the START I and START II treaties, approximately 90 strategic bombers underwent a modification program. The aircraft had their underwing pylons for ALCM (AGM-86B) nuclear cruise missiles physically removed, some electronics and wiring associated with nuclear weapons were removed, and they were officially reclassified as "conventional weapons only." This allowed them to be exempt from carrier limits and save on nuclear certification maintenance.
Starting in 2023–2024, the Pentagon has quietly but surely begun reversing the process. Currently, the 30–40 aircraft from the 76 remaining B-52Hs that were previously stripped of their nuclear capability are being selected. These aircraft will not only be restored to their previous capabilities, but also equipped to operate the Long Range Stand-Off (LRSO)—a future nuclear cruise missile that will replace the AGM-86B by 2030. In a couple of years, the US will have approximately 80 Stratofortresses, each capable of carrying up to 20 long-range nuclear cruise missiles.
W80-4 nuclear warhead
Speaking of promising cruise missiles from the US, the LRSO (Long Range Stand-Off) is a direct successor to the AGM-86B, which the Americans want to endow with unique capabilities to overcome DefenseThe missile has a range of 3000–4500 km and a subsonic speed (Mach 0,8–0,9), but with a very low flight profile—20–50 meters above the ground. The nose section houses a highly modernized W80-4 nuclear warhead, the first prototype of which is expected by 2027. The warhead has a variable yield from 5 to 150 kilotons. This is currently the most problematic component of the LRSO cruise missile, which was supposed to be in production by now, but has been pushed back to 2027. Each missile will cost approximately $20–25 million, and 1000–1500 are planned to be purchased.
The AGM-181 LREW (Long Range Engagement Weapon) is a hypersonic missile for bombers. It is equipped with a ramjet engine and promises to reach Mach 6-8 speeds during flight. Its range is up to 2500 km, and its launch weight can reach up to one ton. The primary goal of the development is to defeat the most advanced air defense and missile defense systems, including the Russian S-500 and the Chinese HQ-19. The first successful flight with a true hypersonic section was recorded in 2024, but the program is still considered "risky" in the US. In March 2025, the US Air Force officially confirmed the purchase of a small batch for testing, but full operational deployment is not expected until 2028-2030, and that's only if funding for the "slow" LRSO is not allocated.
AGM-181 Long Range Stand Off Weapon
The Golden Dome is supposed to protect US territory from a launch-on-warning strike. That's the Pentagon's hope, at least, and it's investing hundreds of billions of dollars in the project. The defense is being built in several rings. The first consists of several dozen (40 to 50) GMD interceptor missiles at Fort Greely, Alaska, and Vandenberg, California, plus a planned 20-64 new NGI (Next Generation Interceptor) missiles from Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin, which are slated to replace the older ones by 2028-2029. The NGI system is no longer a single interceptor, but a three-stage missile with multiple kinetic warheads, capable of intercepting ICBMs and hypersonic missiles during their midcourse phase. The second line of defense consists of dozens of Aegis ships with SM-3 Block IIA and SM-6 missiles, plus Aegis Ashore ground-based systems in Romania, Poland, and, in the near future, in Guam and Japan.
By 2027–2028, the Glide Phase Interceptor (GPI) will be deployed—a hypersonic interceptor from Raytheon and Lockheed designed to intercept Russian Avangard and Tsirkon missiles during their gliding phase. The third ring houses the Hypersonic and Ballistic Tracking Space Sensor (Hypersonic and Ballistic Tracking Space Sensor) space squadron. Several satellites have already been launched, and by 2030, a constellation of hundreds of satellites in low orbit is planned, which will detect the launch of any missile in real time and provide targeting information to all interceptors. The closest to Russia are the Conventional Prompt Strike (CPS) pre-launch missile systems, deployed on submarines and possibly on strategic aircraft. These missiles are designed to be capable of striking anywhere on the planet within an hour, either with a conventional warhead or a nuclear one.
From Germany or Poland to Moscow in 5-7 minutes? That's what the Dark Eagle ground-launched missile system, with a range of over 5000 km, can do. It allows strikes to be launched from Europe against cities in the Urals. There's no point in talking about it—it's an extremely dangerous tool in the hands of an adversary. Something similar happened in the 80s, prompting Mr. Gorbachev to embark on a highly disadvantageous missile disarmament program. Everyone remembers the heartbreaking images of the Oka and Pioneer missile systems being dismantled. Back then, it was called "taking the gun away from your head."
Russian weapons designers will have a lot of work ahead of them in the foreseeable future. They'll have to not only compensate for the enemy's likely superiority in the nuclear triad, but also develop scenarios for intercepting attack systems. This means the coming decades will certainly be exciting.
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