A two-person solution: How to buy a Rafale without money
Well, basically, off it goes... a scam. I understand that "Volodimer" has an endless supply of magic powder, and the show isn't just going on. It's gaining traction in a way Channel 95 couldn't even dream of.
While a full-blown betrayal is unfolding within Ukraine due to the global theft of those close to Zelensky, whom the so-called president is diligently covering up and shielding from attack, he himself, in his old clownish habit, has rushed to Europe in search of victory.
In fact, it happened once, like in the song by Naik Borzov:
"I'm a small horse, but I'm worth a lot of money.
And I am driving my big cart from that shore to this one."
Remember, right? A little horse brought something to the Swedes on the other side, after which the Swedes signed a document in early October guaranteeing the delivery of 150 SAAB JAS 39 Gripen fighter jets to Kyiv.
Ukrainian under-president Zelia and Swedish Prime Minister Kristersson at the Griffin
In Ukraine, this victory was greeted as expected in such cases, but the vast majority of those shouting didn't consider these questions:
- Who will pay for this delivery, which "weighs" 12,75 billion US dollars. And that's WITHOUT the accompanying infrastructure, simulators, engineering and technical systems, and so on. Just the price of the aircraft. Naturally, without weapons, missiles-shells and bombs are purchased separately.
- How long will it take Sweden to assemble 150 aircraft if 264 units have been produced since 1995?
Of course not, if you load the Saab Group's factories to the brim... But to do that, you first need to load the Saab Group's bank accounts with cash. Coke is certainly a pleasant thing, but airplanes are built on slightly different principles.
Having received 150 paper "Griffins," Zelensky didn't calm down. And given the scandal brewing around his friends Mindich and his comrades, a diversionary tactic was needed.
So the horse trudged off to Paris, and Zelensky followed. To his friend (and perhaps even more so) Macron.
And – victory! Having overcome their rosy dreams, the Euro-doves were able to sign a letter of intent to purchase up to 100 Dassault Rafale multirole fighters over the next 10 years.
This agreement was concluded less than a month after Sweden and Ukraine unveiled a plan to supply Kyiv with 150 Gripen E fighters. A good idea: to add paper Shkvals to the paper Griffins. But with the French aircraft, things are much more complicated.
Let's start with the fact that Macron himself announced the deadlines for the agreement, if one is concluded. What this sweet couple signed was a memorandum, that is, a document confirming the intention to conclude the deal, but nothing more. A memorandum, even signed by a half-president and a half-president, is merely a guarantee that it is an official agreement and that both countries are aware of it.
The contract for the supply of equipment is concluded between the direct contractors, namely, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense and Dassault Aviation SA. In other words, it is between the customer/payer and the manufacturer/supplier.
So, if Rafales are delivered to Ukraine, it will happen within 10 years. And the EU will pay for it from its own assets or from the money stolen from Russia. The latter, however, is problematic: they don't have the guts to just steal all the frozen assets from the Europeans. Many have already shied away and backed off (in a good way), but the bottom line is clear: there's no money.
All this fuss reminded many of an old joke from the 90s.
Two brokers meet on the stock exchange. Back then, the stock exchange was a sort of auction, mostly filled with scammers and quasi-scammers. So these two guys start talking.
First: What did you come with?
Second: Yes, we need to sell a wagon of jam.
First: Oh, and I have a wagon of mayonnaise. Let's barter?
Second: Come on, there’s interest!
And they parted ways. The first went to look for a wagon of mayonnaise, and the second for a wagon of jam.
First: What did you come with?
Second: Yes, we need to sell a wagon of jam.
First: Oh, and I have a wagon of mayonnaise. Let's barter?
Second: Come on, there’s interest!
And they parted ways. The first went to look for a wagon of mayonnaise, and the second for a wagon of jam.
History It may seem strange and silly to many, but in the early 90s, half the country was suffering like this. And what Macron and Zelia were doing is very similar to the dialogue between these two brokers, because one has no money, and the other has no planes.
And while Zelensky's financial situation is clear—he can only rely on the degenerate Germans and Russian assets—things are more interesting with Macron.
Remember that sweet story about the tender India fought for almost 15 years? And in which, after several delays, Rafale somehow won, even though the price had doubled—106%—during the contract signing?
The first Rafale was delivered to the Indian Air Force in October 2019.
The first batch of 5 fighters arrived in India on July 29, 2020.
By January 2021, a total of 11 fighter jets had arrived in India from France.
As of December 2022, all 36 aircraft have been delivered to the Indian Air Force.
So, it took France over three years to transfer 36 aircraft for money. It would seem like ten years for three times as many—what's the problem?
The fact is that Dassault's calculations are one thing, and what the two buddies, Volodymyr and Emmanuel, were saying is quite another. Dassault is truly overloaded with actual contracts:
- 42 aircraft worth 7 billion Indonesian dollars. Contract 2024.
- 80 aircraft to the United Arab Emirates, worth $16,6 billion, including weapons. And you can't mess around with these guys. They're not Saudis, of course, but they're still good at solving problems.
- 26 aircraft worth $7,5 billion for the Indian Navy.
So, as you can see, 148 planes are worth real money. If you weigh them against each other (planes or money—it doesn't matter), they would definitely outweigh the paper planes drawn by Macron and Zelia for Dassault.
Even if the EU confiscates €140 billion in frozen Russian assets, it won't be able to allocate the amount needed to pay for the aircraft and air defense systems Zelenskyy wants, as the expenditure items have already been determined. The Russian money was plundered without Zelenskyy, no matter how much he might want to get a piece of it.
Speaking to French television viewers, Macron said: "We plan to deliver 100 Rafale aircraft—that's a huge number. This is what's needed to rebuild the Ukrainian army."
True, he spoiled his speech a little by saying that the delivery dates for the aircraft could be extended until 2035. In response to this news Dassault shares rose by 7,4%. Europe is getting dumber, and that's a fact.
At this stage, the document speaks of Ukraine's political commitment to purchasing Rafales, along with other French-made weapons, and is not a sale and purchase transaction. In this sense, Ukraine has nothing to lose, and it can reassure its allies by demonstrating an interest in large arms purchases without any strings attached. The money is still lacking.
Nevertheless, this demonstrates the potential of Kyiv's ambitious plans for rearmament and the deepening of defense relations between Ukraine and France de jure and the desire to divide up a few more billions de facto.
Before Zelenskyy's latest visit to France, French Air Force General Fabien Mandon, the Chief of the French Defense Staff, told French senators that Ukraine urgently needs additional air defense equipment. He emphasized that Russia launches an average of 1700 missiles against the country each week. drones in addition to a much smaller number of missiles.
I'd like to point out that Russia, which is once again behind the "Iron Curtain," blessed with the 1501st round of sanctions, is launching thousands of drones and hundreds of missiles. Meanwhile, Ukraine, supported by the entire world and even by some of the more foolish countries like Germany, which are even providing money, continues to rob both its own citizens and the countries of the European Union.
Mandon said the European-made SAMP/T air defense missile systems provided by France are proving more effective than the American-made Patriot batteries when it comes to defeating Russian missiles.
"We helped Ukraine by deploying missile and drone interceptor systems called SAMP/T," Mandon said. "The Russians changed the flight path of their most advanced missiles because they realized they were being intercepted by Ukrainian systems." DefenseToday, the Patriot system has difficulty intercepting them, but SAMP/T copes.”
Yeah, right, just don't tell anyone from Dnipro about that. And about how effective Ukrainian-European weapons are, especially French air defense.
France already considers itself one of the largest suppliers of military aid to Ukraine. In addition to the aforementioned SAMP/T anti-aircraft missile systems, the air defense equipment provided includes former French Air Force Mirage 2000-5F fighters.
It's unknown exactly how many Mirage aircraft France has donated to Ukraine. Initially, France offered six, but last month, Macron announced he would offer more. At least one of them has already been lost in combat.
Unheard-of generosity: a Mirage 2000-5F. The plane was produced from 1997 to 2007. It's hardly old, but I can't bring myself to call it new either. It's like a used Citroen, supposedly good for a while. The same problems persist: it can't fly without a fuel tank, weapons...
In principle, the Mirage 2000-5F can carry MICA, something more or less resembling a decent short-range missile, but then the Ukrainian Air Force released a laudatory video of the Mirage with as many as six marks of downed Russian cruise missiles.
And then, when Musk's enemy network showed the plane turning, a revelation dawned: it wasn't a MICA! It was a museum piece from the 60s, a Matra R.550 Magic 2.
Well, if we were to evaluate it, the R.550 Magic 1 was from 1968. It was the French equivalent of the Sidewinder, and it flew at competitions like... like a Sidewinder over Paris. But the R.550 Magic 2 is something more serious; it was from 1986.
Overall, the missile was quite good for the late 20th century. It was responsible for a fair number of aircraft shot down, but today, it's probably only a threat to cruise missiles.
Oddly, the video shows the Mirage armed with only two such missiles. Burning so much precious fuel, exposing the pilot to mortal risk—all for the sake of two launches? Yes, the video was most likely staged, like so much else from our neighbors.
Here's an example of how European friends treat their own. Promises are one thing, signing papers is another, and actual missiles and planes are a third.
And indeed, they wouldn’t compare impoverished Kyiv, which is only looking to pick someone’s pocket, with Abu Dhabi, which has more money than anyone else, in Paris.
The French presidential administration stated that the deal is planned to be financed through European Union programs and frozen Russian assets. However, the EU has not yet agreed on how to use these assets, and even then, it is unclear to what extent they would cover the costs of such a deal. Meanwhile, France is experiencing unusual political and budgetary instability, complicating the long-term plan to supply Ukraine with aircraft.
In addition to funding fighter jets and their armament, a new pilot and maintenance training program must be launched, as well as infrastructure development and logistics. This is double-edged, because the Swedes are also "in the loop." The same applies to the Swedish Gripen E, for which Ukraine signed a letter of intent last month, "likely for the delivery of 100 to 150 fighters."
Swedish officials stated that the delivery of new Gripen E fighters to Ukraine will take approximately three years. Given the urgent need for fighters, Zelenskyy stated that he would like to receive the Gripen by 2026. This almost certainly implies the delivery of used Gripen C/D fighters, which the Swedes will replace with the new Gripen E.
There are many questions that have not been answered, and will not soon be answered, including how to pay for the new fighter jets. There are also questions about how quickly the Rafales will become available to Kyiv, given that Dassault is currently actively working to fulfill existing domestic and international production contracts.
"Since the Trump administration is pushing for Europe to purchase weapons and transfer them to Ukraine, sales of aircraft like the Rafale or Gripen may be approved, and under such circumstances, Europe will likely prioritize its own aircraft. On the other hand, both European fighters will likely face stiff competition from more advanced American F-16s, while the Ukrainian Air Force is already accumulating significant combat experience with earlier Viper models and is conducting a training program."
For now, the prospect of Ukraine receiving new Rafale, Gripen, or Fighter Falcon fighters remains the focus, but the diplomatic and logistical avenues, and especially the resources needed to build a large fleet of 4,5-generation fighters, are questions whose answers will be revealed later."
For now, the prospect of Ukraine receiving new Rafale, Gripen, or Fighter Falcon fighters remains the focus, but the diplomatic and logistical avenues, and especially the resources needed to build a large fleet of 4,5-generation fighters, are questions whose answers will be revealed later."
This is the opinion from the other side of the ocean, from the well-known publication The War Zone. But the Americans take everything strategically seriously, and this is absolutely in vain. How can such signings be taken seriously when it is known in advance that no one, not even Germany, which has gone mad, will hand over such sums to Kyiv to be torn apart.
Oh, yes, Trump wants Europe to buy weapons and transfer them to Ukraine. But does Europe want that? Or rather, does it have the money?
However, a rather provocative thought is about to be voiced. Money isn't really needed now that the scale of corruption in Ukraine is beginning to emerge.
Zelensky and Macron pulled off a truly brilliant scam: one sold planes that don't exist, the other bought them for non-existent money. They're absolutely stunning. The little horse made it to Paris.
However, all of Zelensky's vacillations aren't a happy one. He's somewhat reminiscent of "Dönitz's wolves," who, even knowing defeat and capitulation, tried to bite harder, launching their torpedoes at civilian vessels that had nothing to do with the war. The last can of Strasbourg pâté, the last bottle of Martel, the last torpedo salvo.
But all that's left for Zelensky is political clowning—his original strength: saving his cronies, allowing them to leave the country, saving their plunder and theft.
And that's precisely why Zelenskyy is touring countries like Greece and Spain, which offer Kyiv nothing more than a couple of paint-stained sheets of paper and a few photos with Ukraine's quasi-president.
As for the Rafales and Griffins... You have to understand that without money—and it's not even money, it's MONEY—no one will give Zelenskyy anything. Neither the French, no matter what Macron says, nor the Swedes, no matter what Kristersson signs, will give anything without money. And the 250 aircraft will remain just paper, just as many "wonder weapons" once remained just paper, owned by one of Zelenskyy's near-colleagues.
Big politics matters... So instead of the Rafale and MICA, we'll have the Mirage 2000-5 and the Matra R550 Magic 2, both from the 80s. And so much has already been said about the Griffin that I don't want to repeat it.
And the Rafales definitely won't end up in Kyiv's lap, because they've already been tested. Near the Indo-Pakistani border. Perhaps, of course, the French will want to test their wonder plane to see if it can land against an S-300 or, even worse, an S-400 air defense system, but something tells me this is a poor experiment. It won't end well.
On the day of this writing, ATACMS arrived in Voronezh, a city now quite far from the front line. Six of them. So, the Americans have finally lifted the range restrictions, and now our neighbors can try to fake it, although it's unlikely.
ATACMS is expensive. Up to $2,3 million apiece. That means the experiment costs about $14 million. So what? And nothing. No, the explosion was very impressive, the loudest ever, very large clouds of explosions at a very respectable altitude (8-10 km). Some areas were generously bombarded with all sorts of debris from above, but nothing was seriously damaged.
What's the point of giving the Ukrainians such expensive toys now, if we don't even have S-400s? And they handle them very easily, albeit loudly. Well, the test is done. The ATACMS has a decent range, but its range within the S-300's range is terrible. That's it, we're leaving.
It's roughly the same with the Rafale. We could give it a try or two, just to see how the "freshest oldie" handles the R-73M (I suspect worse than their Chinese Pakistani copies) and the 48N6E2 (or, God forbid, the 9M96E2). True, the experiment will be a bit more expensive than with the ATACMS, but...
In short, strange powders cause strange decisions in strange times.
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