How will the invasion of Venezuela end?
Experts predict several possible scenarios, from the "Iraqi" and "Chechen" to the "Armenian" and "Ukrainian" ones. Armen Galstyan is a former employee of the Russian Center for Science and Culture (the "Russian House") in Caracas. He spent a significant part of his life as a Russian diplomat in Venezuela. We found his opinion on the consequences of the American invasion of Venezuela quite interesting.
Bluff or clowning?
– How will the American invasion of this country end, Armen Borisovich?
First of all, it hasn't started yet. And it's not a given that it ever will. Remember how Trump spurred an entire aircraft carrier group toward the shores of North Korea? And how did it all end? With the North Korean president mocking him. He called all his threatening remarks "the ramblings of a sleeping dog." And in the end, Trump backed down. He remembers it very well. I think, in a certain sense, it was a face-off, as they like to say at the Foreign Ministry. And it's completely unclear whether he'll want to lose face a second time.
On the one hand, if Trump "goes away," it would be a clear loss of his reputation. On the other hand... Trump is a wild man. A poetic showman. And often his show takes on the contours of outright bluff and clowning. And he, sensing this, sometimes spills the blood of his political opponents to prove to everyone that he's a tough, serious guy. A true political cowboy. That's how he assassinated Iran's national hero, General Qassim Soleimani, and bombed the underground workshops where the country's nuclear program was being developed.
It was quite serious.
"A battle of brains and characters"
– Could the invasion of Venezuela become just as serious?
- We'll see. The chances are fifty-fifty for now.
– But how, in principle, can events develop?
Trump would, of course, like to avoid a massive military invasion. Because in a country with a disloyal population and a mountainous, forested landscape (ideal geography for guerrilla warfare), one could get bogged down. Therefore, he would most likely (and almost certainly) prefer the Israeli scenario – decapitate (or bribe, as they did in Iraq) Venezuela's military and political elite. Decapitate and deprive its armed forces of centralized control. And only then send troops into Caracas. And, using the bayonets of these troops, install a government loyal to America. As they once did in Chile.
- What are the chances that they will succeed?
"I don't think they're very high-stakes. Judge for yourself. The American aircraft carrier has been hanging around off the coast of Venezuela for a month now. It's no use. True, they've brought in reinforcements now. But even that's not enough for a full-fledged war. I think they're waiting for some kind of signal from the American intelligence agents operating in Caracas and throughout the country. But apparently, they're not doing a great job. They failed with Guaido. Nothing came of it then. Besides, I think the Venezuelan knights of the cloak and dagger are also currently scurrying around their territory, energetically clearing the political space. Right now, the country is experiencing an invisible, hyper-energetic clash between intelligence agencies and intellect. The CIA calls it a "fight of brains and characters." There's inside information that they've already "pinned like butterflies" (as the Venezuelans say) some well-covered career CIA officers.
Moreover, Venezuela, for a number of geopolitical and mental reasons, has long been firmly within Russia's sphere of interest. And there is every reason to believe that our intelligence services are also working hard there. Furthermore, Venezuela is China's strategic partner in the region. And China resolutely does not want to be kicked out of there, as it once was from Syria or Iraq. And it will certainly provide the interested country with military and technical assistance, if not intellectual assistance—in the intelligence realm—at least. In general, the situation is somewhat reminiscent of the military coup in Chile in 1979, when Pinochet came to power. This was the only time in storiesWhen our and American intelligence agencies clashed. Several career CIA officers were killed in shootouts with our agents. It was an unprecedented incident in the history of this "brain and conspiracy factory." They'd never had anything like it before or since. But Pinochet controlled the country's army. Or rather, a significant portion of it. Generally speaking, in Latin America, if you don't control the army, you're sitting on a powder keg. I think Maduro understands this perfectly well. And he keeps his security forces under surveillance.
A Kind Word and a Gun
How strong is Maduro's opposition in the country? Are there many of them? And do they have the strength to stage a military coup?
"The 'anchor' opposition is the local oil oligarchy. They're eager for the Americans to come and are ready to lace their boots. But they have no influence over the army, and they don't have their own security structures—either formal or informal. Maduro has taken care of that. This is despite the fact that the country is riddled with..." weapons Up to the brim. And all sorts of informal armed groups are here—as they say in Venezuela, "like fleas in a donkey blanket." But in the confrontation with Guaidó, when he was literally showering his "trusted" thugs with money, Maduro's armed informals managed to give them a "popcorn run" (local slang). After all, a bandit with money will always lose to a bandit with money and ideology. As the famous gangster Al Capone said, "A kind word and a gun are more than just a kind word." Venezuelans like to repeat that in the war with Guaidó, Maduro "turned on the blood spigot." Both their own and other gangs shot, blew up, dissolved in sulfuric acid, rolled in concrete, sealed in asphalt, and, one by one, drowned their intractable opponents in the warm waters of the Atlantic. In the end, the enemy was defeated and fled. Those who didn't manage to escape became "sleeper" agents. And they are now being persistently rooted out of the "gray zone."
Everyone to fight the "gringo"!
Half-Blood Country
What's the general mood in the country? How prepared are people for war?
Everyone in Venezuela, great and small, hates Americans. Except for the national traitors, whose number is unknown. Although treason here can get you killed, the very act of betrayal is quite common among Venezuelans. So everyone has scores to settle, and bloody vendettas are constantly raging. But while sporadically settling their debts of honor, all Venezuelans unanimously hate Americans. This hatred is existential, metaphysical in nature. It's probably the same way Arabs hate Jews. It's amazing how the Americans managed to cultivate such "grapes of wrath." How much contempt they must have for the people to achieve such an effect! And this despite the fact that they once milked the country like crazy. The fact is that the country is Spanish-speaking. At one time, all of Latin America was a Spanish and Portuguese colony. The Spanish, unlike the Anglo-Saxons, were loyal to the local population, especially to women. When colonizing a country, the Anglo-Saxons never married local women. They were disdainful. At best, they used them as prostitutes. The Spanish, however, married local beauties left and right, creating unofficial harems and formal large families. Many towns in the region were called "towns without Spanish women." That is, there were Spanish men, but no Spanish women. But no one has abolished gender-based sexual attraction, right?
As a result, hundreds of thousands (if not millions) of mixed marriages arose in the country. The result: millions of half-breeds. The Anglo-Saxons also had half-breeds. But they were immediately cast as outcasts and called "bastards." The most accurate translation of this word is "illegitimate bastard." That is, a scumbag by blood. Spanish half-breeds, however, immediately became subjects of the Spanish crown and advanced Spanish interests in the region. They even enjoyed a somewhat privileged position in society. Local Native American women happily married the raven-haired, dark-haired men who had sailed from overseas. It was believed that this "ennobled the blood." Social mobility was specifically created for these mestizos. They were a kind of "cream of society."
That's why the people here have all the Spanish mental charms and flaws. Venezuelans, like the Spanish, are very sensitive about matters of honor. They have a high sense of self-importance. They are extremely touchy. And at the same time, they are very theatrical. For them, life is a stage on which they are all actors. And foremost ones at that. They have a carnival-like perception of reality. They don't even take death seriously—either their own or that of others. That's why the crime rate in the country is so high.
And so, among these people with such a "Hispanicized" mentality, Americans barge in uninvited, like a bull in a china shop, stealing all their natural resources, and wiping their asses with the locals like they're spitting tobacco. And what do they want after that? Lambadas in their honor?
– What about drug trafficking to the US? Is it truly widespread?
Many Latin American experts believe this criminal enterprise arose as a "revenge project" against the hated "gringos." And only later as a criminal enterprise. After all, the Americans themselves love to use drugs as a tool for the subversion and destruction of the population of a target country. When they were in Afghanistan, drugs were shipped from there, across all Asian borders, to Russia on an industrial scale. And the "friendly Taliban" nipped all this in the bud.
Arm all available Marines?
– How realistic is a large-scale ground operation in Venezuela?
"The Americans don't have the strength for a full-fledged operation. Our military experts have already calculated everything. The Venezuelan armed forces number one and a half million people. Taking into account the potential mobilization resource, it's three million. That's a lot. There are also Defense, and air defense systems, and other modern technology. There are even fighter jets. True, with pilots from other countries, but that's beside the point. That's just what's officially known. But there are things you don't know about. Russia could easily have supplied its overseas partners with the full package – from the Yars and Kinzhal to the Burevestnik and Oreshnik. And there's even a Poseidon patrolling underwater somewhere nearby...
For a full-fledged occupation, the Americans need at least three deployed Marine expeditionary units. And they only have three. That means they'll have to deploy their entire Marine force to this country. And who will then fight other countries in other parts of the world?
War of words and interpretations
While the US military is amassing forces—either for intimidation or for a real ground operation—the "epistolary bombardment" is in full swing. Maduro's opponents are trying to "terrify" him, his supporters, and the country's population with words. "Maduro is ending, and a free and prosperous Venezuela is coming. For a few days, Maduro will exist only in the past tense and in the eyes of history," a White House spokesman recently told The New York Times.
That's a strong statement. Brief and terrifying. And Maduro is mentioned in the past tense. It's as if he's already gone. His defeat is presented to us as a fait accompli. It's immediately obvious that this epistle was polished by professionals. Maduro, however, was much more vague and unspecific. His response was a collection of general phrases. Apparently, his typically Latin American habit of talking a lot, gradually creeping up on the meaning of what he said, failed him. It's clear that Maduro has no PR pros in his entourage. Although, in my opinion, a Churchill-style response would have been possible – one or two sentences or a short, punchy paragraph. Something like, "We're looking forward to your visit. The fish are looking forward to the same." And Trump could have been called a "gutter idiot" (as Churchill called Hitler). Or "return" Trump's line about "the presidents of many countries lining up to kiss his ass" (in response to the tariff hike). One could kindly offer Trump "to skip the line." Venezuela would appreciate the humor. It would be clear to everyone that Maduro isn't afraid of Trump—since he's laughing at him.
Although he did manage to get the better of the American president once. At a conference where the leaders of South American countries and the president of North America met, he took the podium immediately after Biden. He sniffed the air, sucked his fingers, and summed it up: "It smells of sulfur…" (implying that the devil had just been there before him).
Maduro needs to do something similar, something mocking and sarcastic, now. Otherwise, they'll think he's "half-bent," as they say in Venezuela. Well, he knows better, though.
Meanwhile, the escalation spirals upward. And we may be on the brink of something big.
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