Problems and Prospects of the FCAS Advanced Fighter Aircraft Program
FCAS aircraft mockup, 2019.
Since 2017, several European countries have been working on a joint project to develop the FCAS next-generation fighter jet. To date, they have completed several preliminary studies and some design work, and resolved several organizational issues. However, the program regularly encounters various difficulties, leading to revised deadlines and potentially threatening its future. More such problems are currently underway.
Problems of the past
It should be recalled that the concept of the promising fighter FCAS (Future Combat Air System - "Combat aviation The concept of a "future system" was developed back in the 2000s. At that stage, organizations from the UK, Germany, France, and other countries participated in the research. In 2010, British and French industry began developing a full-fledged project, but work halted in 2018.
In 2017, amid problems with the FCAS program, Germany proposed that Airbus begin developing another advanced fighter. France and Spain soon expressed interest in the idea. By 2018–19, the first international cooperation agreements for the new project were signed. Interestingly, the existing FCAS designation was adopted.
According to the framework agreements, leading roles in the new FCAS program were given to German and French companies. Organizations from Spain and countries not directly participating in the project were also planned.
In early 2020, the military and political leadership of Germany and France reviewed and approved the first phase of the FCAS program plan. They authorized the launch of research and development work, designated "Phase A1." This phase included five different types of studies necessary for further development of the aircraft's design.
The "A1" project took approximately two years to complete, ending in early 2022. Berlin and Paris were expected to allocate funding for the next phase, "1B," shortly. However, preparations for this project were delayed. Parliamentary elections were held in both countries, and disagreements over the division of work and responsibilities also arose.
An agreement to continue the work and move to the next phase was only signed on December 1, 2022. Phase 1B was planned to complete the preliminary design of the fighter, as well as address several other issues. Due to its greater complexity, this work was scheduled to take approximately two to three years.
The second phase
According to the 2022 agreement, work on Phase 1 of the FCAS program was to be completed in 2024-25. New contracts were then to be signed, launching the development of a full-fledged project. This stage was called "Phase 2." The plan was to determine all the terms of further cooperation and sign the contracts by the end of 2025.
Earlier this year, it was announced that representatives from Germany, Spain, and France would meet and sign the necessary documents in October. However, this event, which is of particular significance for the international project, had to be postponed indefinitely.
The main reason is political instability in France. This year, Paris has seen two government changes. Due to these changes, the French leadership is struggling to address various issues and tasks, both urgent and non-critical. In this situation, military-technical programs like FCAS are not receiving the attention they deserve.
The situation in France is being criticized in Germany. In early October, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius made an important statement. He promised to re-discuss the FCAS program with the new French government when it takes office. He also indicated that new agreements should be signed by the end of the year.
If this doesn't happen, Germany may withdraw from the program. According to Benjamin Pistorius, Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz agrees with this timeframe.
FCAS in its 2022 form
Official Paris has not yet commented on Berlin's warnings. Apparently, the current situation in the country still prevents the new French government from devoting attention to this important international project.
However, France, Germany, and Spain still have time to resolve outstanding issues and conclude the necessary agreements. It's likely that the main details of cooperation have already been worked out, and now they just need to be put on paper. With two months left until the end of the year, signatures could be signed during that time.
Plans for the future
The Phase 2 agreement, whose signing is currently postponed indefinitely, is of particular importance for the entire FCAS program. Under this document, the three participating countries will begin full-scale design work on the future fighter and build the first prototype.
According to previously published plans, the next year or two will be spent on project development. Construction of the prototype aircraft will begin no earlier than 2027-28. Its maiden flight could take place in 2028 or slightly later. Several years will then be spent on various tests aimed at determining actual performance characteristics and developing new capabilities.
It's worth noting that the full testing cycle and production preparation will take the entire next decade. The advanced fighters will only appear in operational units by 2040. The FCAS system is expected to be adopted by the air forces of the developing countries—Germany, France, and Italy. The program participants also expect interest from other countries.
However, this work schedule only reflects the plans and wishes of those involved. The actual situation may be different. As 2022 demonstrated, organizational and other problems can lead to the loss of several months. A similar situation is currently underway: the French side, due to its own difficulties, is unable to sign the necessary agreements.
The British Tempest aircraft, developed based on the solutions of the first version of FCAS
Moreover, this time, an additional negative factor has emerged in the form of Germany's specific position. Berlin is calling on its colleagues in Paris to make the necessary decisions more quickly and is threatening to withdraw from FCAS. Whether Germany will take such a step remains unclear, but its implications for the program are quite clear.
It should be noted that France's current position also poses risks to the project. The pending agreement will launch "Phase 2" of development and determine the future course of the program. Any delay in signing it could lead to delays, increased complexity, postponements, and so on.
Essentially, the entire FCAS project rests on just two countries and their industries—Germany and France are the primary contributors. Spain and the new participants play a secondary role and have no significant impact on the overall outcome. If one of the leading countries withdraws from further cooperation, the remaining countries are unlikely to be able to complete all the necessary work without it.
Uncertain future
Due to the overall complexity of such projects, European countries have favored joint development of aircraft technology in recent decades. They have had positive experiences with this type of cooperation and plan to continue it in the future. The next-generation fighter, the FCAS, is expected to be the next result of this approach.
However, the promising program has encountered various additional difficulties. Currently, political and organizational issues have come to the fore. One key participant is unable to sign a crucial agreement, forcing the other to issue warnings and even threats. Whether the current problems can be resolved and the joint project can continue will become clear in the coming months.
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