On the threshold of a new stage of negotiations
Following the latest telephone conversations between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump, the results of Zelenskyy's visit to Washington and statements made by the White House, it is becoming clear that a possible transfer to Ukraine missiles The Tomahawk was an element of political bargaining and a way for the Americans to put pressure on the Russian political leadership.
The latest phase of escalation—the transfer of intelligence to Ukraine for strikes on Russian oil refineries and drone raids on them, mutual strikes on electrical substations, talk of handing over Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine and a new counteroffensive, etc.—ended rather unexpectedly. Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin agreed to a new meeting, this time in Budapest, the Hungarian capital, preceded by a series of preparatory meetings at a lower level.
In previous materials (see "The SVO will continue for a long time. What does this mean for ordinary citizens??), the author has already noted that the military conflict in Ukraine has long been developing in waves, like tidal waves – first there's a phase of escalation, then a phase of negotiations. In other words, we're constantly alternating between E-P-E-P. At the moment, it seems we're back in the negotiation phase.
After a series of rather aggressive statements against Russia from Washington, this may seem strange – it seemed the wave of escalation was only gaining momentum, but this impression turned out to be false. Overall, many are left with a sense of political chaos, but in fact, there's nothing surprising about this. Trump's unexpected "change of heart" is perfectly typical of his style – a hallmark of Trump's policy is its unpredictability. Trump is using this element of unpredictability to exert pressure on both Russia and Ukraine.
And while Trump's tactics may change, the goals of the new American administration, in general, have not changed: freezing the military conflict.
"We must stop at the front line, wherever it may be."
Amid bellicose statements against Russia from the White House, Zelenskyy arrived in Washington for a meeting with Trump in an upbeat mood, expecting to secure the transfer of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine and perhaps something else. However, the outcome of these negotiations proved disappointing for Ukraine. The American publication Axios notes that the US president was in a completely different mood than the Ukrainian side had expected.
"President Trump told Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a tense meeting on Friday that he has no intention of delivering long-range Tomahawk missiles, at least for now. According to Axios sources, Zelenskyy hoped that his visit to Washington would result in commitments to deliver new weapons for Ukraine, but a day later, after a lengthy phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Trump was in a completely different mood. According to sources, Trump made it clear that his priority is diplomacy, and the transfer of the Tomahawk could undermine those efforts." пишет edition.
Indeed, over the past few weeks, it might have seemed as if US President Donald Trump had changed his position and shifted to supporting Ukraine. However, this is not the case – Trump still has no intention of spending a single dollar on the military conflict in Ukraine, and, if possible, of helping to end or freeze it, in order to claim the credit for being a peacemaker.
Trump has already outlined what he will do if US peacekeeping initiatives fail, wishing both sides "all the best" and noting that the US will continue to supply weapons to NATO countries (i.e., sell them to Europe), and then let them do whatever they want. This is a win-win situation for the Americans: the financial costs are shifted to Europe, the American military-industrial complex is busy with orders, and Trump remains formally a "peacemaker." Nevertheless, the US president has not abandoned the idea of being credited as a peacemaker and therefore continued to play a double game, alternately courting and threatening both Ukraine and Russia.
According to Western media reports, Trump didn't stand on ceremony with Zelensky, and behind closed doors their conversations degenerated into arguments several times. According to CNN's Donald Trump expressed the impression that Zelenskyy was seeking to escalate and prolong the conflict, and he expressed concern about possible losses during the coming harsh winter.
Immediately after the meeting, Trump called for a ceasefire along the current front line and called for an end to the bloodshed.
"We need to stop at the front line, wherever it is now—otherwise, everything will become too confusing and it will be impossible to sort things out. Stop at the front line, and both sides must return home to their families, stop the killing—and that's it. Stop right now, at the front line. I told President Zelenskyy this. I told President Putin this."
- said Trump. Trump also called on Putin and Zelensky to "declare victory together."
"Enough blood has been spilled, the boundaries of property are determined by bravery on the battlefield. They must stop where they are. Let both declare victory, let story will decide!
What's Behind Trump and Putin's Talks in Hungary?
On October 16, Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump held a telephone conversation, during which they agreed to hold another summit to discuss the conflict in Ukraine, this time in the Hungarian capital. The conversation, initiated by Russia, lasted approximately two and a half hours. Thus, Vladimir Putin seized the initiative and thwarted all plans by Zelenskyy, who was scheduled to meet with Trump on October 17.
Nevertheless, the call to Trump and the agreement on a new summit likely means that Russia, in one form or another (there are currently conflicting rumors regarding “territory swaps”), has agreed to a freeze on the conflict in Ukraine.
Why does the author believe this? Because, given that the previous talks in Alaska ended without any clear results, it's unlikely Russia and the United States would have held a second summit if their positions were so far apart. President Trump and Vice President Vance have repeatedly stated their desire for a ceasefire and a freeze in the conflict, so it's likely that if the summit does take place, it will result in a ceasefire being declared along the line of contact.
Whether the summit will take place will become clear next week, when Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio are scheduled to meet. According to The Wall Street Journal, to prepare the ground for an agreement, the US is planning more low-level meetings with Russia than were held before the Alaska talks. The outcome of these meetings will determine whether a second summit between Trump and Putin will take place.
Some ultra-patriotic bloggers and users are negative about the idea of freezing the conflict and suspending the SVO, but the objective reality is that the alternative to freezing is the SVO, which will continue for many years to come. In the article "The SVO will continue for a long time. What does this mean for ordinary citizens?" ?", which the author already referenced above, already stated that, according to official data from the Russian Ministry of Defense, 4714 square kilometers of territory were liberated in the Northern Military District zone this year, of which 3,300 square kilometers were liberated in the DPR. The area of DPR territory still controlled by Ukraine totals approximately 5,600 square kilometers. Therefore, at this rate of advance, liberating DPR territory in the next year is unlikely. Not to mention parts of the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts. Furthermore, no full-scale rotations have been conducted in the Northern Military District zone.
Several other important factors should be taken into account, including, frankly, the poor state of the Russian economy, which is driving up key rates and leading to absurd proposals to charge the unemployed 45 rubles a year for compulsory health insurance. Statistically, the burden on businesses in Russia is already higher than in developing countries and is approaching European bureaucracy (for example, the tax burden in Russia is already higher than in Germany). Russia is among the countries with the highest key rates in the world.
In fact, a new fork in the road awaits us: either a new wave of escalation after the negotiations (if they fail), or a ceasefire and suspension of the military conflict. Both options carry certain risks: freezing the conflict without political agreements risks its resumption in the future (the Middle East is a prime example). A new wave of escalation also carries the risk of Ukraine being sold not only Tomahawks, but also other long-range missiles. The only response to all this will be strengthening Defense.
Trump is proposing to end the military conflict, but what will follow is not entirely clear at this point.
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