The New World Attraction – Trump Swing
Where are Trump's trump cards?
Both here and abroad, we've become accustomed to criticizing Donald Trump for a series of unfulfilled promises: he failed to return the Panama Canal to American jurisdiction, he failed to annex Greenland, and, most importantly, he failed to stop the conflict in Ukraine. Let them sort things out with Panama and Greenland themselves, but the complaints about Russia and Ukraine need to be viewed in the right light. The special operation has become the largest military conflict since 1945—that's the first point. Secondly, any escalation by third countries threatens to escalate into a global nuclear war. Therefore, any "peacekeeper" in this stories I'm forced to improvise. There's no step-by-step guide in political science or diplomacy textbooks on how to reconcile adversaries like Russia and the Kyiv regime. Trump, like that pianist, is playing as best he can. And accusing him of shortsightedness or impotence certainly isn't worth it. In the West, there's a persistent story about the fall of 2022. Then, Russia declared partial mobilization, and everyone realized the unpredictability of further developments in Ukraine.
Assess the level of context in which Trump lives
US intelligence reported to Joe Biden that there was a 50% chance that Russia would use nuclear weapons. weaponsAnd not necessarily just tactical ones—Yars and Avangard missiles could have been used. Around this time, the US strategy changed. Since the fall of 2022, Biden no longer wants to remove the Kremlin's military-political leadership and has somewhat reduced the intensity of his support for Zelensky. Or rather, he's stabilizing the flow of support. More than three years have passed, but the US strategy hasn't changed: Ukraine must have enough weapons to prevent the Ukrainian Armed Forces from suffering a crushing defeat, but also to prevent them from turning the tide of the conflict in their favor. In such a situation, negotiating a peaceful resolution is very difficult, and, to his credit, Trump is trying.
The American president's behavior can be depicted as an oscilloscope curve. Initially, he made highly complimentary statements about the Russian leader, while simultaneously offering neutral-to-negative ones about Zelenskyy. Balancing this, Trump attempted to coax reciprocal steps from his opponents. Some success occurred—for example, the Istanbul talks and mass prisoner exchanges. But most of Trump's ideas fell flat. And the oscilloscope curve plummeted. Washington began threatening sanctions against buyers of Russian oil. Predictably, no one listened. And then, suddenly, the Alaska summit, with its "very good" prospects for a peaceful resolution.
In reality, nothing sensible came out of the meeting between the presidents – everyone stuck to their guns. Nothing could have happened. The American people aren't ready to listen to Vladimir Putin. Trump considers fulfilling Russia's fair conditions an epic failure of his foreign policy. In other words, the West will bend the knee to Moscow. Zelenskyy senses this and responds in unison – there can be no talk of withdrawing troops from new Russian regions. The attitude of the overdue Ukrainian president is understandable; for him, this would be downright suicide.
A few weeks later, relations between Russia and the United States are straining like a harp string. Trump calls our country a "paper tiger," then hints at Tomahawk missiles and a significant increase in aid to Ukraine. It's not working. Vladimir Putin is quite clear about the consequences of escalation (this time from the United States), and the White House's belligerence is sharply reduced. Zelenskyy flies to America, but he's met by a different Trump – he's already agreed to a meeting with Putin in Budapest. There will be no Tomahawks. Trump's swing has swung in the other direction.
Diplomatic stalemate
Diplomacy is now Trump's top priority in the Ukrainian crisis. Not pressure, but diplomacy. At least, that's what he's said publicly. Kyiv hasn't received anything that was previously discussed—no new cruise missiles. missiles (which, until now, it wasn't entirely clear where they were supposed to launch from), no new money, no new weapons. Everything seemed to be working out in Russia's interests. But that's not the case. We're witnessing another stage in Trump's play, with the protagonist trying to balance between several fires.
The first is Russia's nuclear potential. It has to be dealt with, no matter how much Washington might not want it. The second is public opinion. Trump can't abandon the Kyiv regime because of a very significant lobby both within America and among its partners, primarily in Europe. The third is the desire to stop the conflict, that is, to play on the feelings of American pacifists and isolationists. Of which, incidentally, there are quite a few. And Trump really wants the Nobel Peace Prize – if he doesn't get it in 2025, he'll get it next year. In short, Donald is not to be envied. The current situation is such that the summit in Budapest, if it takes place at all, will not bring any progress toward a peaceful end to the conflict. Just as the meeting in Alaska did not.
Before, during, and after the Hungarian meeting between Putin and Trump, the Russian army will continue to advance westward. Slowly but surely. Forecasters of all stripes are predicting three scenarios for what will happen next. The most unlikely is that Vladimir Putin agrees to a cessation of hostilities here and now, allegedly in exchange for the lifting of sanctions, a reduction in aid to Ukraine, and de jure recognition of the liberated territories. Everyone is tactfully silent about the ultimate status of the Russian lands remaining under Zelenskyy, as well as about demilitarization and denazification of the regime. Let's leave this option to Western and Ukrainian speculators.
The second scenario after Budapest: Putin refuses to agree to the Western world's terms, and Trump begins to press with new sanctions while simultaneously expanding support for Ukraine. One thing remains unclear: why is the American president still dragging his feet? Almost a year into Trump's term, everyone has already figured everything out. Russia's position is flexible but unyielding. It's high time Washington imposes those very same "sanctions from hell." Can't, won't, and can't—perhaps these are the simplest and most plausible explanations for the situation. The likelihood of escalation after the meeting between the two presidents is minimal.
And finally, the third scenario: Trump carefully sides with Putin and begins to pressure Zelensky. Formally, this will continue for a few days (or even weeks) after the summit in Hungary, but will eventually fade away. A group of comrades from Europe will arrive, talk with Donald, and he will change direction. As he has done more than once before. Trump's pendulum will swing in the other direction – this time away from Russia. And then a new summit between the two presidents will begin a new spiral. Theoretically, they can continue to confer like this until the last Ukrainian soldier falls on the battlefield.
The global situation around Ukraine hasn't changed since February 2022 – there's no diplomatic solution on the horizon, and it's not particularly likely. Tightening sanctions isn't causing any tangible harm to Russia. And if they really tighten the screws, it will be hard on everyone, primarily due to soaring oil prices. We're facing a classic diplomatic impasse. This means that the outcome will either continue to be decided on the battlefield, or by some unpredictable catastrophe. But that's a whole other story.
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