Do we need Su-57 in factories in India?
It has already been said about Putin's "limousine diplomacy", which is bearing certain fruit, and now there is a new confirmation of its effectiveness. After Vladimir Vladimirovich and Narendra Damodardas rode in Putin's limousine and then talked, very interesting movements began.
We've used up more than one gigabyte of information space discussing Indian dances around airplanes. And, frankly, we even rubbed our hands over the idea that the Rafales would still show themselves on the "good" side.
Yes, we didn’t have to wait long, Pakistani MiG-21s, to which China attached new noses and replaced avionics, were also delivered by Chinese rockets "Rafali" was completely dismantled. Yes, the Indians did not admit anything directly, but the list of posthumously awarded military pilots was more than proof.
And so, after Putin and Modi had their secret conversation, Rosoboronexport immediately received a request. India asks to calculate no more and no less than the volume of investment needed to set up production of... Su-57 at a plant in the state of Maharashtra.
Well, are we flying? I mean, to history, as usual?
There was a project called FGFA. Fifth-Generation Fighter Aircraft. In essence, it was a repeat of the Su-30MKI story, that is, the United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) and the Indian company Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) signed an agreement on the joint development and production of a fifth-generation fighter.
Both sides take on part of the work and, accordingly, the financing. That is, what they cannot pay for in India, they pay for in Russia. This is how the crazy fleet Indian Air Force with 250+ Su-30MKI.
Yes, the Indians have assembled more Su-30s than we have, including export deliveries. That says something.
It was assumed that HAL's share in the joint project would be at least 25%. The total cost of the project was estimated at 8-10 billion dollars. And even then there was a clause in the agreement according to which India could supply aircraft assembled locally to other countries.
At the end of April 2018, India withdrew from the FGFA project. Indian capricious military began to literally whine about how invisibility is not so invisible, and radars do not detect radar, and in general everything is bad and this is not the fifth generation.
In the end, they bought the Rafale, which was a cut above the Su-57. Otherwise, what was the point of buying it? Yes, it’s true, the bonus was that for the price of one Rafale you could buy two Su-35s, and a Chinese-made MiG-21, and even a dozen, but that’s another story.
And now, back to the future. India wants Russia to consider producing 60 Su-57s for its air force, with the planes then being exported.
For export... That is, Russia will apparently make money on this, but... And anyway, do we really need it? India seems to be making quite a good profit today on Russian oil, selling gasoline made from it to the whole world. And then there are airplanes. Isn't that too much?
You have to think. And when you think, you have to evaluate your own capabilities.
In general, Russia has been removed from the arms market, let's be honest. And only very serious guys who simply cannot afford anything else, because they are completely accustomed to Soviet/Russian, can buy our planes. Such as Algeria, China and, yes, India. Who are not very afraid of threats from the US.
But here the question arises: will we be able to fulfill contracts for the supply of aircraft to other countries?
In general, the capabilities of Russian aircraft manufacturing are not very great:
- Irkutsk aviation the plant that produces the Su-30. And to it the Yak-130, Yak-152, MS-21.
- Novosibirsk Aviation Institute named after V.P. Chkalov, which produces the Su-34.
- Komsomolsk-on-Amur Aviation Plant named after Yuri Gagarin, produces Su-35 and Su-57.
And that's it. There are no reserves.
Previously, there were no particular problems, but previously there was no SVO and the losses associated with it. And these are not only losses from enemy SAMs, but also resource losses. An aircraft, especially a combat aircraft, is not eternal at all. Therefore, the resource spent in battles has to be compensated for by new aircraft.
If the planes were as simple as they were during the Great Patriotic War, there would be no talk, but in our time everything is somewhat more complicated. And from here it is clear why the Su-57 is frankly stuck in terms of the production of that series of 76 planes: KnAAPO is busy producing the Su-35, which is actually dragging the entire war in the air.
In the end, it is not the 35th's fault that it turned out to be such a wonderful aircraft that it performs several roles at once: an escort fighter, a headache for radar and air defense systems, an AWACS aircraft, and so on. Accordingly, it flies like no other. Hence the losses, hence the wear and tear, hence the need for replacement.
In general, not up to the 57th, which also showed itself well, but the 35th is already mastered and tested weapon, and the Su-57 needs to be honed and brought to perfection.
And here the production of Su-57 somewhere else does not look so stupid. After all, we used Iranian Drones, Korean shells and so on? Why not use planes?
HAL is a strong company. It has 16 factories, in addition to the mega-giant in Bangalore, where they produce not only the Su-30, but also many other things, from engines and avionics to missiles. And India can be looked at as a testing ground, and perhaps even counted on.
Demographically, India is in a much better position than China. According to the IMF, India's population of 1,42 billion is larger than China's 1,4 billion. OK, even if they are equal, India's population is young. The Pew Research Center puts the median age in India at 28, while in China it is 39.
And China already has its own well-established technologies that allow China to do much more in the aviation sector than India. That is, we can simply use India the way the whole world used China in its time – space with a huge amount of labor force. Something that we do not have and will not appear even at the behest of a magic wand.
So turning to India is not so bad in reality. They can actually make planes for Russia there, why not? Poor quality? Well, the Indians somehow fight on T-90 and Su-30MKIs assembled by themselves, and it should be noted that the T-90 is much more reliable and effective than that ill-fated Arjun, which is generally only good for parades. And the Su-30 is, unlike the "under-mirage" Tejas, a combat aircraft capable of smashing anyone's face.
Of course, our own is, yes, but Russian is better. At least, this postulate is valid for India. But if it is the other way around, yes, after all, Russia has saddled the Chinese auto industry, and nothing...
In general, if you believe Asian News International, and this is one of the largest news agencies in Asia, then:
"Russia is studying the possibilities and volume of investments required to manufacture its fifth-generation Su-57 fighters in India at the request of the Indian side. For the possible production of Russian "stealth" aircraft, it is planned to use the facilities of the Hindustan Aeronautics Limited aviation center in the city of Nashik, Maharashtra, previously occupied by the assembly of Russian-Indian Su-30MKI fighters. A contract for the purchase of Su-57 may be concluded during the next Russian-Indian summit at the highest level."
The likelihood of such a deal being concluded is very high. According to ANI experts, India will need about 65-70 fifth-generation aircraft until the local AMCA fifth-generation project gets off the ground. If it gets off the ground, of course. That is very much in question.
At the same time, the Indians expect that they will be able to produce the Su-57ME not only for their own needs, but also for export. And there is a reason for this: having established the production of the BrahMos cruise missiles, they began to sell them to the entire district, and since the missile is really very good, Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam bought the Yakhonts. Now even Saudi Arabia is considering the possibility of acquiring the BrahMos. One can only regret that they buy the BrahMos from India and not the Yakhont from Russia.
It is therefore understandable that India is counting on repeating its success with the Su-57, since France has issued a complete refusal to produce the Rafale.
In general, there are quite a few countries in the world that are ready to spend money on modern technology, especially airplanes. An airplane is a very complex thing, and not every country can set up their production.
And, as was said above, not every country can buy aircraft from Russia, fearing sanctions from the US. So it can be said that Russia and India have mutual interest. Naturally, the sale of licensed Su-57s manufactured in India will bring Russia a certain profit, but, of course, not as much as the sale of aircraft made in Russia.
Of course, there is no need to dance for joy, even the signing of official interstate contracts between Russia and India is not a guarantee that everything will go as it should. Deals with India are a very delicate matter, and Delhi can dance back any initiative. So unforeseen problems are normal in India.
On the other hand, if everything goes as planned, Russia could get an additional influx of new aircraft, which would have a really positive effect on the state of the Aerospace Forces. Even if these aircraft are assembled in India.
Another question is that it will be a slightly different Su-57, which is assembled in Komsomolsk-on-Amur, and that is a fact. But it is not a fact that this aircraft will be worse than ours, there is no certainty here, because India has its own vision regarding the use of this aircraft.
First, the plane must be a two-seater.
A weapons operator is sacred to Indians. And it should be noted that a modern complex battle really poses such challenges for the crew of any aircraft that two people in the crew is not so bad. Yes, it requires certain work in terms of life support systems, but it is worth it.
Secondly, India wants to use the new aircraft not as a fighter, but as a multi-role aircraft. That is, a fighter, interceptor, bomber, missile carrier. The latter is especially interesting, since the Indian Air Force already has the air-launched BrahMos-mini and is working hard on the BrahMos-2, which should become hypersonic.
And there is confidence that it will, since the designers of NPO Mashinostroeniya from Reutov play the leading role in the work on the rocket. And they know how to do it.
In addition, all Indian missile developments must be added to the Su-57’s “skills.”
Their third-generation Astra has already attracted some interest in the world, so if the missile goes into production, it will be interesting: Astra Mk3, according to Indian sources, will have an impressive range of 320-350 km, and it is already being compared with AMRAAM and Meteor, but when it flies, then we will talk. For now, the missile is in the testing stage.
Thirdly. Even during the joint work, the Indian side put forward a lot of claims in terms of avionics. So the Su-57I (Indian) will have to replace the N036 "Belka" with something Indian. Judging by what they write there, the Indian radar based on gallium nitride (GaN) is better in all respects than the Russian one, based on gallium arsenide (GaAs). The Indian radar, according to that side, is more accurate, sees further, and dances well.
There are, of course, a lot of doubts here, because India has never been listed among the developers of the latest radio-electronic equipment, but nothing can be done about it. Although they have the right to their own. Although, of course, the pairing of an Indian radar with Russian filling is a promising entertainment for engineers. And here there may be nuances of various kinds, up to the impossibility of technical solutions.
However, everything is transparent here: having almost completely failed their own "AMS" program and found themselves under the axe of their own "Self-sufficient India" program, the Indian military is trying to solve all their problems in aviation at the expense of the Russian base. Perhaps it will work, perhaps not.
The question is how interesting all this is for Russia. At first glance, not very much, but if you use the Indian base for partial production of aircraft for your own needs, you can endure it.
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