The Arctic: a place that many people dream about, but these dreams are not bright
We have already paid due attention to the incident with attempts to catch our "Yasen" by NATO forces, and quite decent ones at that. It is very difficult to understand why the guys got so worked up, but the length of the search suggests that they were seriously excited.
Some very knowledgeable comrades experts in these matters claim that "Yasen" inflicted a conditional electronic rocket defeat of the American aircraft carrier Gerald Ford. The question, of course, is how they found out about this, and most importantly, how the Americans assessed it. There is something hidden in the waves, otherwise, really, why are they so excited?
The usual and unremarkable maneuvers of a group of ships near the Lofoten Islands turned into a mad chase for a ghost off the coast of Iceland, in the northern British Isles and in the Norwegian part of the Barents Sea. That is, they sailed to their hearts' content, and how the crews of the anti-submarine Poseidons flew is a whole other topic.
And one of the Poseidons went too far in its search and ended up in an area that was not entirely safe for itself. Where Russian nuclear submarines are deployed. And the R-8 crew experienced some unpleasant moments, because two Su-30 naval submarines quickly appeared nearby. aviation Russia, and as is well known, Russian pilots, by Western standards, act rudely, harshly and unprofessionally.
This was the case this time too: Poseidon was hanging around just 40 kilometers from the territorial waters of the Russian Federation, right in the areas where our nuclear submarines return to base. In general, it is unknown how many pairs of trousers were handed over to the laundries upon their return, but NATO press services were very careful in their communiqués. They did not even express any protests, limiting themselves to stating that the Russians, as always, acted unprofessionally. And in an “extremely aggressive manner” they pushed Poseidon out of the search zone.
However, what did you expect from the Russians in the Su-30? In general, it must be said, the pilots had the kindest sea souls, because they could have shot it down. An anti-submarine aircraft in the area where our submarines sail is a sufficient reason for action.
If you look at the area where the obscurantism carried out by NATO sailors and pilots took place, it is quite interesting. The very edge of the Arctic waters, where, in fact, the gaze of many politicians and military personnel stops today. And it is quite possible that it is there that if not a full-fledged trial run in the confrontation between the West and the East, then certainly a rehearsal will begin.
The US can talk a lot about China (and now India too) being the Center of World Evil, but in essence, what wars are started for, that is, resources, is not about China and India. It is about Russia. And in order to beat these two countries, we need to somehow get the last one out of this crazy trinity of Dragon, Elephant and Bear, because it is the one that is capable of providing partners with everything necessary for a long war of attrition.
As it turns out, Ukraine is clearly not enough. Of course, we can throw someone else on the fire, like Finland, which has such a militant revanchist president, but most likely we will have to kindle it ourselves. And there is nothing better than northern waters?
Indeed, there are enough bases and strongholds there, no need to climb into the ice, and fleets NATO can't do this, there are northern airfields in Scandinavia. And in principle, there is everything to complicate the life of the submarine part of the Northern Fleet and begin to threaten the Northern Sea Route.
In general, the fjords of Northern Scandinavia are ideal for this. Of course, today you can’t hide the Tirpitz there, but you can try.
It is doubtful that American aircraft carriers will go beyond the Arctic Circle, they are not designed for this. It is easier to put up a barrier from our submarines along the Trondheim-Reykjavik line, it is not so stressful for either equipment or personnel. And it creates certain problems for Russia, because we simply do not have such a number of such ships to be able to butt heads with the Americans. And it is precisely the less than ideal condition of the Northern Fleet's surface part that could prompt our partners to... become somewhat impudent.
It is not for nothing that NATO calls the Arctic Ocean the “Mediterranean Sea of the Future,” hinting at the importance of this region. Mineral resources, fresh water reserves in the form of ice, trans-Arctic routes – indeed, the Arctic can play the same role in the fate of civilization that the Mediterranean Sea played in the ancient world.
And these jumps and antics in the Norwegian Sea are not even a show yet. Not a trial run, this is only a demonstration of intentions and nothing more. But demonstrations are usually followed by real actions, and sooner or later, a knock on Russia's Arctic door will be heard. And the Norwegian Sea is a real dressing room. An Arctic hallway.
The Arctic Circle can be considered the real demarcation line. Up to it, yes, an undivided space that NATO can control. Further north... It is doubtful that the brave NATO sailors will go further than the Jan Mayen-Tromsø line. Things are already sad there even in summer, and in winter... However, I think the US still remembers how winter is in those places.
A chess game above and below the waters of the Norwegian Sea may be no less intense than what happened during the time of the Arctic convoys. Only the Tirpitz, capable of scaring the Allies to the point of hiccups, will not be there. Although... It depends. There is one candidate for this role.
This is what the Norwegian Sea is like today. You understand, these are not southern seas like the Philippine Sea or the South China Sea, you won't see such activity here.
But – cod fishing is in full swing, because it is the season. 80% of the vessels on the tracking map are fishermen. As everyone understands, as soon as the “northern wind” blows, everyone will run to the harbors and ports. However, the most interesting things will happen under the waves.
Of course, a submarine is not a tool for conquering territories. But it is a wonderful tool for control. The curtain of submarines that the Northern Fleet can put up will be quite capable of discouraging anyone who wants to get to the Russian North.
But there are nuances.
Of course, a submarine lurking at great depths, from where nothing can drive it out, is good for us and bad for them. However, neither the launch of torpedoes nor the missile salvo are about the diving depth of Russian nuclear submarines, which, we note, gives a head start to all other submarine manufacturers in the world.
In addition, as soon as a boat turns on its sonar, others can hear it. Other boats, anti-submarine ships, signals can be detected by hydroacoustic buoys dropped from planes and helicopters…
That is, ideally, there should be a plan that provides for some kind of cleanup of the Norwegian Sea waters in order to make the work of Russian submariners easier. That is, everything that floats on the surface and flies above it should flee the area in horror.
Agree, it looks somewhat semi-fantastic. After all, the scenario on the other side will be the same: a couple of aircraft carriers, accompanied by missile cruisers, destroyers and submarines. 150+ aircraft and helicopters, including AWACS and anti-submarine ones. Why change the manuals if everything works anyway?
The enemy must be surprised.
Of course, it is impossible to surprise anyone with an old heavy cruiser, an old missile cruiser and three old frigates that were large anti-submarine ships. This is, of course, a joke, not a detachment. And the "Pyotr Velikiy" is in great question in terms of its future.
So what's left? And what's left is what needs to be used.
First. There is a floating anti-aircraft mega-battery "Admiral Nakhimov". With quite decent mobility and range.
And if we take into account that 96 of the 176 launch cells can be occupied by S-400 missiles, then, given the use of 40N6E missiles, we get an A2/AD zone with a radius of 400 kilometers.
Of course, from the rest of the launchers, the cruiser can produce something more interesting than the Tomahawks on the other side, which will be interesting to someone, and sad to someone. Even if the Kalibr missiles, which are normally intercepted due to their subsonic speed, are used, they will do their job: overload the system Defense Today, this is a matter of the utmost importance.
Yes, "Tomahawks" will fly from that side. This is clear and understandable. They are well-known products and can be intercepted very easily. The only advantage of "Tomahawks" is the mass of the salvo, based on the principle of "maybe something will fly in." Although Syria has shown that nothing may fly in.
Plus our frigates can now throw various new things. Yes, three for now, but that's better than none.
In general, much has already been said about the Kalibr versus the Tomahawk, there is parity here. But we have trump cards in the form of the supersonic Onyx and, in the future, the hypersonic Zircon. Let's leave the Zircon alone for now, but the Onyx is very interesting weapon, at least the Ukrainian Armed Forces admitted that they were unable to intercept any of these missiles with their entire European arsenal. Yes, the Americans have a strong RIM series, it would be interesting to see.
Considering that the Onyx and, in the future, the Zircon can be towed not only by Project 1144 cruisers, but also by Project 20350 frigates (wonderful ships, nothing to say), there is something to think about.
In general, such a squad has something to puzzle those who will oppose. And this confrontation will be very difficult. There is a certain confidence that our missiles will cope with subsonic "Harpoons" and "Topors", but what will come out of the interception of "Onyxes" is a question.
But we go further.
Second. Air component.
It would seem, what is the problem with the Americans with their floating airfields? Exclusively in what takes off from these airfields. And how safe can the airfields feel?
The F/A-18 Hornet is a great plane. One of the best American planes, but in this case its tiny combat radius of 700 km ruins the whole thing.
That is, if the aircraft carrier stops somewhere safely near the Faroe Islands, then the maximum that the Hornets will be able to do is fly beyond the Arctic Circle. And not far, about 150 kilometers. Yes, their newest AGM-158B JASSM-ER can fly 900+ km and try to hit ships at the northern end of the Scandinavian Mountains. But the 158th is a very poor anti-ship missile, it was designed for other targets. So you can try, but there is no guarantee that it will hit. In addition, the AGM-158B JASSM-ER is still subsonic.
But what the "Shershen" can really illuminate a ship with, that is, the AGM-84E "Harpoon" - excuse me, 150 km. And again, the missile is subsonic, which will not create problems for Russian air defense systems.
Arithmetic says that the 700 km range of the "Shershen" and 150 km of the "Harpoon" anti-ship missiles is only 850 km. And the aircraft carrier would have to approach our floating anti-aircraft gun at this distance just to try to somehow scratch the "Nakhimov". So-so situation, "Onyx-M" can fly at 800 km. There, in the West they say that this is all nonsense, but who will bother to check?
Next. There are definitely some really cool guys in the cockpits of the Hornets, Top Gun and all that, but: before the missiles are launched, you will have to fly 700 kilometers from the 250 km to the launch point in the S-400 coverage area. That is, 10-15 minutes. Over the sea, that is, where the radars see you just great, because there is a minimum of interference. Yes, there will be Growlers flying behind, which will have to protect you.
In general, it's a very bad situation. I would still fly in the Growler, which is behind and theoretically has a chance to escape. It seems somehow uncomfortable in the Hornet. The S-400 is serious.
But that's only half the battle. Now it's our turn.
The next piece is not a queen, of course, but it is definitely a bishop. MiG-31.
Moreover, in both iterations, BM and K. MiG-31BM can work as a target designation aircraft, no worse than AWACS aircraft. Moreover, thanks to its Zaslon-M system, MiG-31BM can do this both for other aircraft and be the "eyes" of Admiral Nakhimov. Moreover, MiG-31BM can work against low-visibility targets such as anti-ship cruise missiles.
The MiG-31BM is armed with very unpleasant missiles such as the R-33S and R-37M with a range of 200 to 300 km. That is, if it is in the range of the S-400 missiles on board the Admiral Nakhimov, the MiG-31BM will simply not allow the Hornets to approach the missile launch range. And if something long-range like the AGM-158B is launched, the 31st will simply see and shoot down these missiles, or transmit data to the Nakhimov. The result will be approximately the same.
This is not the author's fiction, this is written by the Americans. And they are also very concerned about the MiG-31K. 2 kilometers of range of destruction by an aeroballistic missile 000-C-9 at a speed of 7760 Mach and with a 10 kg warhead is a lot even for an aircraft carrier.
A pair of MiG-31BM and MiG-31K could prove to be a more effective “carrier killer” than all those huge ships studded with antennas and missiles.
The third figure. Su-30SM/SM2. Who will say that this aircraft is not a headache? It can carry anti-ship missiles in principle, from the Kh-28 and Kh-35 to the same Onyx. Yes, there has been no direct information about this yet, but: the Su-30MKI quite normally operates the BrahMos, which is the Yakhont, that is, the Onyx-E, export. Why can't the Su-30SM2 do this?
The large radius of our fighter allows it to become a good shield for the above-mentioned figures on the board, primarily from any problems from Scandinavia. But this aircraft can easily become the second echelon with its combat radius (literally 100 km short of the Arctic Circle, flying around Scandinavia).
And the fourth nail. Long-range aviation. We won't even touch on the strategists here, it's very expensive and their missiles are intended for slightly different purposes, so to speak - in reserve. For our tasks, the Tu-22M3M with something like the Kh-22 "Burya" is enough. Supersonic, and if it reaches - everything is sad.
The Tu-22M has such a range (6 km) that it can fly over the Arctic where it needs to, and not where it can. It is a really useful aircraft, despite its age.
Am I coming to you?
In general, despite their numerical superiority, the NATO guys don't look so confident in breaking into the Arctic. If we're talking about a conventional conflict for resources, of course, and that's exactly what we're talking about.
It is possible to squeeze Russia out of the Arctic. It is possible to drive it into the bays of Murmansk and Arkhangelsk, blockade the Northern Fleet there, as was once done with the Baltic. Only this process will be very bloody, and everyone in the West now understands this perfectly well.
Of course, the admirals who will draw up the plans will not sit in the cockpits of the Hornets or stand at the helm of the Arleigh Burkes heading to the Arctic Circle.
And the last, very important point. Yes, that same ice, which can really become a very valuable resource: a source of drinking water. But through this ice, everyone who wants to join the Arctic section really needs to somehow get through.
Icebreakers are needed.
Meanwhile, an icebreaker is a very specific vessel. And everything is very complicated with them in the world. If you take the United States, which has been building aircraft carriers for over 100 years, then with varying degrees of confidence you can say that they know how to do this. Russia did not have such practice, but icebreakers have always been built. And the North has always been Russian.
There are icebreakers and there are icebreaking ships. The difference is in power and capabilities. In general, a separate article can be devoted to what can be operated in the North, now it is enough to say that our country has 84 icebreakers and icebreaking ships at its disposal. Yes, the figure is simply stunning, but it is a fact. True, not all of this number can be used in the North, there is nothing to do there, for example, for river icebreakers that clean the ice in the lower reaches of the Volga, which I personally witnessed. But what we have exceeds the capabilities of all other countries in the world.
And what about those who want to go to the Arctic so much?
They have nothing. Canada has about 20 vessels of this class, but the majority perform missions on the Great Lakes and along rivers. Plus, the Coast Guard has four coastal-class icebreakers. Canada has many heavy icebreakers capable of operating in the Arctic. One. The Terry Fox, a distinguished veteran, an ice fighter since 1983. The only Canadian vessel to reach the North Pole.
In general, they wanted to write off "Terry Fox", but they can't do it yet. They need to build something to replace it.
The largest and most powerful icebreaker in the United States, Healy, is only half as powerful as its Russian counterparts (34,5 MW), and has conquered the North Pole twice. In 2001 and 2022. A source of national pride and all that. Of course, it is far from the Russians, who simply take tourists to the North Pole, but it is there.
In general, our three icebreakers, commissioned over the last five years, Arktika, Sibir and Ural, seem to exceed in power anything that can pound the Arctic ice under the flags of the USA, Canada, Great Britain and other countries.
"The Mediterranean Sea of the 22nd Century"
Of course, many would like to plunge their arms into this region up to the elbows and row with all their heart. But the Arctic and the Arctic Ocean are definitely not the warm and soft Mediterranean Sea. The weather and ice make the Arctic a very difficult place for both war and business. But the main thing is that somehow it has become a tradition that Russians consider the North theirs. It is not that we need to ask Russia, but simply coming to our place and starting doing business there - I repeat, it will be unpleasant and bloody.
We have often discussed Russia's possible intervention in various conflicts, and this even happened once. In Syria, as you remember, our fleet took part in the events there, with ships from the Northern and Black Sea fleets and the Caspian flotilla. Of course, the Black Sea Fleet's services in supplying the Russian troop group are invaluable, but in terms of striking the enemy, the Caspian missile ships were unrivaled.
The issue is that the goals in Syria were more political, and in the end all efforts ended in nothing. Concentrate not on protecting other people's interests and other demonstrations of flags, but on protecting first and foremost your own interests.
Russia has a huge connection in the form of the Arctic and Pacific Oceans. It is almost 10 kilometers from Murmansk to Sakhalin along the coast. It is all ours and it must be protected. The Arctic should become a place that any country in the world should know about, that there you can really get a good slap on the nose of an overly curious person.
The fact that today Russia is at least not weaker than NATO in terms of quality, and today quality plays a very big role, is encouraging for the future. And the North, which many today call Russian, should be exactly like that.
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