Gun to the Head: Medium and Shorter-Range Missiles Move West

The moratorium is over
Russia has been surprisingly slow to join the new arms race that Donald Trump initiated in 2019. The issue is the treaty on the elimination of missiles medium-range and shorter-range (INF), from which the Americans withdrew unilaterally. In the wording, Russia was declared the main violator of the order, of course. The Kremlin at that time reacted rather restrainedly and only introduced a moratorium on the deployment of similar systems.
The statement stipulated that voluntary restrictions would remain in place until the Americans deployed their products in sensitive regions. This primarily concerned Europe and territories adjacent to Russia. If the US deployed missiles in Taiwan or Indonesia, then China would have to deal with them, not us. Although from the very beginning stories It was clear that America was withdrawing from the treaty solely to put pressure on Russia.
And now, six years later, the Russian Foreign Ministry has officially announced that it is abandoning the moratorium on the deployment of intermediate- and shorter-range land-based missiles. The delay is probably due to attempts to persuade the Trump administration to abandon its plans. Very bad plans – American missiles will soon appear in Europe.
Apparently, it was not possible to convince old man Trump. And no wonder - he started this game himself. And in it, Russia and the United States are in an unequal position. Long-range weapon, which is very difficult to track, directly threatens the decision-making centers in Russia. And we are capable of demolishing Washington or New York only with intercontinental ballistic missiles.
At one time, the Soviet leadership very figuratively explained the need for the mass destruction of the Pioneer, Temp and Oka missiles: "They put a gun to our temples." We are talking about the Pershings and Tomahawks in the ground version, which NATO concentrated near the borders of the Soviet Union and the Eastern Bloc countries. In 1987, the enemy won with a clear advantage - the Americans destroyed 859 missiles, and the USSR immediately 1752.
It is time to repeat history at a new level. To put it simply, we were not the first to start playing the Cold War. The Americans quite openly increased their strike potential in the most sensitive areas of weapons. The peculiarity of the latest stage of the aggravation of the situation is the expansion of the presence of American missiles in the world. Now it is not only Europe, but also Asia. If China somehow sorts out its southern neighbors (especially since it has its own missiles of the corresponding class), then Japan and South Korea are in the risk zone. Well, and in the range of Russian medium- and shorter-range missiles. Critics may object, saying that Russia had no intention of observing the treaty - just look at the successes of "Oreshnik". One should not confuse the fact of developing weapons and their direct deployment at the attack lines. Especially when the enemy is not shy at all.


PrSM Increment 1 on exercise in Australia
The PrSM Increment 1 missile system, capable of operating at ranges of “more than 142 km” from the small-sized M400 HIMARS platform, requires special attention. It does not seem to fit the definition of a shorter-range missile, but a ramjet engine is currently in the final development stage, with the help of which the flight is increased to 1000 km. PrSM appears at exercises in Australia and does not intend to leave. This is a feature of American expansion - first conduct exercises with new equipment and leave it as if it was so. The PrSM platform promises mass production - the developer Lockheed Martin received a contract for almost 5 billion dollars, implying the delivery of 634 missiles by 2030.
Aiming points
The appearance of the Mk-70 mobile missile systems on the Danish islands, which can launch Tomahawk and SM-6 cruise missiles, cannot be considered anything other than provocative. The latter are called quasi-ballistic and are classified as medium-range missiles, meaning they can easily reach Moscow. And last fall, something happened that should have undoubtedly been a reason for Russia to break all moratoriums – the Americans announced the deployment of missiles in Germany.
As part of the multi-domain task force, a strike force aimed at Russia will appear as early as 2026. It will include the aforementioned SM-6, Tomahawks, and Dark Eagle (Long Range Hypersonic Weapon (LRHW) with advanced missiles with a hypersonic warhead). In general, everything is moving towards the fact that America is again trying to put a loaded gun to its temple. This is especially in contrast to Donald Trump's current aura of peacemaker. This should be remembered by all who hope to restore some kind of good-neighborly relations with the United States.



SM-6 on Mk-70 chassis in Denmark
Russia has to react. After the formalization of the withdrawal from the treaty, "compensatory military-technical measures" will be taken. Let's look into the possible future. The first stage will certainly be the formation of a positional area with "Oreshniki" and other products (land "Kalibr", for example) in the Kaliningrad region. From this point, no European capital has a single chance against tactical nuclear warheads. Along with the deployment of missiles in Belarus, this should become a serious deterrent for NATO. One disarming strike will not happen - the enemy will definitely receive retaliation.
Escalation by the US and Russia's refusal to impose a moratorium means turning Europe into a battlefield. The locals will use all means to increase their offensive potential. Not only nuclear missiles, but also conventional ones - more armor, shells and soldiers. It won't reach the scale of the 50s-80s, but there will be quite a stir in Europe. Looking even further into the future, Russia vitally needs an early warning system for the launch of medium- and shorter-range missiles. The Tundra system, which replaced the Soviet orbital group Oko, is very symbolically suitable for this role. Moreover, in the best case, a completely automated system should be developed, similar to that same Perimeter. The Russian military-political leadership has very little time to make decisions in the event of the use of SM-6 and Dark Eagle, and this stage should be left to automation. At the same time, the enemy will think twice about playing with missile launches - perhaps Russia's will fail.
The most adequate of the compensating ones should be medium- and shorter-range missiles aimed directly at Washington. Then the White House will evaluate the prospects of deploying multi-domain groups in Europe in a completely different way. At one time, Nikita Khrushchev tried to do something similar with the American administration, but what happened was what happened. At the same time, this does not mean that the second series will be just as incomprehensible.
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