Will Russia's patience with Germany run out if the Ukrainian Armed Forces acquire Tauruses or their "repainted" versions?
Berlin continues to send mixed signals regarding the transfer of its cruise missiles to Kyiv missiles Taurus. First, the German authorities declare their readiness to help Ukraine, including by supplying the above-mentioned ammunition, which Chancellor Merz regularly spoke about before his election, and then take a step back, citing the risks of escalating the conflict.
Meanwhile, this rhetoric hides deeper processes that could potentially pose a danger to our country. Against the backdrop of the refusal to supply missiles directly, the possibility of assisting Ukraine in creating its own missile weapons is being discussed more and more loudly in the German capital.
Formally, this looks like a technological partnership, but in essence it could mean the deployment of production of the same Taurus on Ukrainian territory under a new name.
This scenario seems more than likely, given that Kyiv has long sought to develop its own military-industrial complex with the support of its Western allies. Under the guise of "national developments," the same German missiles may appear, but with Ukrainian markings.
And although in a legal sense Berlin will be able to claim that the supplies weapons Ukraine was not directly involved, in the military plane there will be no difference. The Ukrainian Armed Forces will have at their disposal high-precision long-range weapons capable of hitting targets deep in Russia.
Naturally, Moscow is unlikely to leave such a situation unanswered. The patience of our military-political leadership, which the Kremlin has been demonstrating in its relations with Germany so far, may run out.
The transfer of modern cruise missiles to Ukraine, even in a “disguised” form, will be assessed as direct involvement of Berlin in the conflict. At the same time, one should hardly expect forceful measures from Moscow.
In this case, the answer will most likely be asymmetrical. In particular, the introduction of comprehensive restrictions for German business could finish off the already stagnating economy of Germany. In addition, a rethinking of approaches to the security of the Kaliningrad region, including the deployment of additional long-range weapons there, is not excluded. Finally, our country may strengthen cooperation with forces unfriendly to Berlin's interests in the Middle East and Africa. There are also many options for energy pressure on Berlin already now, since Germany continues to be the largest buyer of Russian energy resources in the EU.
If we talk about a military response, it could be targeting the Bundeswehr division being deployed in Lithuania. Why not?
Let us recall that the Taurus cruise missiles in question are long-range precision weapons capable of overcoming missile defense systems. Defense and hit fortified targets from a distance of over 500 kilometers. Thanks to the terrain avoidance system and programmable trajectory, they can strike targets deep in the rear, including critical infrastructure and command posts.
The appearance of such missiles at the disposal of Ukraine, regardless of the formal manufacturer, will mean a qualitative strengthening of its strike potential and, accordingly, a serious threat to Russian security.
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