Prospects for the Development of the Russian Aerospace Forces. Attack Aviation

I would like to start by stating that the development prospects of the assault aviation No. Solely to save time and nerves for those who disagree with this statement. And then we will calmly figure out what an attack aircraft is and why it has no place in the sky in the future.
Let's start with a definition.
An attack aircraft is an aircraft controlled by a pilot, related to attack aviation and intended for direct support of ground and naval armed forces in combat, as well as for the targeted destruction of various ground and sea targets. That is, at a minimum, it is an airplane or (as an option) a helicopter. A manned aircraft. Not a UAV.

This is what an attack aircraft is these days. And in order to properly assess what kind of phenomenon this is in the air, we simply need to go to historical excursion.
In general, the attack aircraft, as a class of aviation, was invented by the Russians. This is a fact, if someone wants to argue with it - no problem, but the "Lebed-XII" with bomb racks of the Shkulnik or Kolpakov-Miroshnichenko systems, capable of taking on board up to 50 kg of small fragmentation bombs and a 7,62-mm "Colt" machine gun to protect the rear hemisphere, was recognized as the world's first attack aircraft.

After the revolution and the Civil War, the theme of aircraft capable of supporting infantry and carrying out strikes on the enemy's close rear continued. The baton was taken up by the attack aircraft, created on the basis of the Polikarpov R-5, the R-5Sh. The R-5Sh differed from the standard fighter by four ShKAS machine guns on the lower wings, and - a novelty - pouring aviation instruments under them.

The fact is that in the 20-30s one of the main types weapons for stormtroopers, chemical was considered. It was envisaged to use VAP against infantry, cavalry, artillery and convoys. Convoys and artillery were considered especially vulnerable because there were few people and many horses. In the event of a surprise attack, the drivers simply did not have time to put gas masks on all the horses. And with the means Defense there was not much in the supply trains and among the artillerymen.
One R-5 carried 160 kg of mustard gas or lewisite. At a flight altitude of about 50 m, it covered a strip of 10-12 meters up to 200 meters long with toxic rain.
By World War II, the concept of the attack aircraft had changed significantly, primarily under the influence of the development of air defense systems. Armor appeared, and then designers in Germany and the Soviet Union came up with the idea of an armored box, which they implemented with varying degrees of success.

That is why the Soviet IL-2, which was essentially a universal attack aircraft, went through the entire war and enjoyed well-deserved respect on the ground, while the Hs-129, which was conceived as an anti-tank aircraft, had, let's say, episodic successes.
In World War II, the vicious practice of assigning obsolete fighters to attack aircraft was also used. The effectiveness of such aircraft was low, and losses were quite significant.
In general, during the war in the Soviet Union and, at the same time, in the USA, more than 20 projects for such aircraft were considered in each country.
After the war, work on armored attack aircraft projects continued in several design bureaus: Ilyushin (Il-20, Il-28Sh, Il-40), Yakovlev (Yak-36 and Yak-38) and Mikoyan (MiG-15bis and SN (MiG-17Sh). Of the entire list of projects from the 50s-70s, only the Yak-38 was accepted into service, which was considered an attack aircraft with a big stretch.

The Yak-38 ended up as an attack aircraft because this aircraft could not conduct air combat at the end of the 20th century due to the lack of a radar, and its set of weapons, mostly unguided, was more typical for an attack aircraft or light bomber, but the lack of armor made the Yak-38 a rather poor attack aircraft, at the level of conversions from obsolete fighters from the Great Patriotic War.
The last page of attack aviation was written in the late 60s of the last century, when the Il-102 and Su-25, which was then still called T-8, met in a competition. As is known, the Su-25 won and for almost 55 years this aircraft has been an attack aircraft in the Russian Air Force.

And today, in 2025, speaking about the prospects for the development of manned attack aircraft in the form of the Su-25, we can say with confidence that there are no prospects. None.
45 years is a very long time. The Su-25 is an established platform that is almost impossible to upgrade further.
What is the main problem with the Su-25? This is an aircraft designed to operate against optically visible targets. That is, in fact, it has not gone very far from the Il-2, of course, it simply has sights, unlike the Ilyushin attack aircraft, and the sights are modern, but there is no onboard radar, which automatically limits this aircraft both in the choice of altitudes for operation and in the choice of types of weapons used.

That is, the same set as 90 years ago: free-fall bombs, rockets, guns. Yes, if you look at the list of Su-25 weapons, you can find a section called "precision weapons". Under this proud signboard are hidden the Kh25 and Kh-29. Missiles, which are older than the Su-25 itself, and which can hardly be called accurate. A laser seeker is something these days, because the pilot is forced to illuminate the target while simultaneously controlling the aircraft, maneuvering and... well, spare us from such a process. Considering that this is at low altitude, when everything that can fire at the attack aircraft... In short, it is a kind of "high-precision weapon".
The Su-25 can still attack with its set, and it can do it decently, but... if we are talking about, let's say, terrorists armed only with small arms. In battles with a normal army, the Su-25 has no chance.
The stormtrooper's protective equipment is completely outdated. Titanium armor, which perfectly withstands bullets from 7,62 mm to 14,5 mm, is good. It can even withstand a 23 mm projectile in some areas. But over these 45 years, rapid-fire guns of 30 mm caliber have become very widespread. And there is nothing to be done about it.
The onboard defense system has become more effective with the advent of the Belarusian Talisman/Vitebsk, but unfortunately not 100%. For any modern fighter, the Su-25 is fodder. The R-60 air-to-air missiles, originally intended for defense against aircraft and helicopters, are simply no longer usable, so they are being replaced with the R-73. This is a very good short-range missile, but the problem is that the Su-25 pilot is unlikely to be able to use it. He simply will not see the target, but the Su-25 will see the target – the fighter – from a decent distance with its radar and will guide its missiles.
For certain reasons, it is not possible to report on our pages information about the lost Su-25s of the Russian Aerospace Forces, but I can provide data on the Ukrainian attack aircraft that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost since 24.02.2022. This is also a fairly indicative list, and taken from the British, who are more likely to downplay the losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

2022 year.
24.02 Su-25 with the call sign "Blue 19", piloted by Lieutenant Colonel Alexander Zhybrov, was shot down in the Chaplinka area by a Russian fighter, Lieutenant Colonel Zhybrov died.

25.02 Su-25 with the call sign "Blue 39", piloted by Gennady Matulyak, was shot down by a Russian fighter near Vyshgorod, Kiev region. The pilot died.
On 26.02, near Nikolaev, a Russian fighter shot down a Su-25 with the call sign "Blue 30". Pilot Alexander Shcherbakov died.
26.02 Su-25M1 with the call sign "Blue 31" was shot down by a SAM missile near Fyodorovka. Captain Andrey Antikhovich died.
27.02 Su-25 with the call sign "Blue 49" was shot down by a SAM missile in the Kherson region, pilot Andrey Maksimov was wounded, but survived and was taken prisoner.
2.03 Su-25, call sign "Blue-29", piloted by Alexander Korpan, was shot down over Starokostiantyniv, Khmelnytskyi region. Korpan died.
3.03 Su-25 with the call sign "Blue 40", piloted by captain Vadim Moroz, was lost over Nikolaev.
22.03 Su-25 call sign "Blue 34" was shot down by a Russian fighter near Melitopol. The pilot
Major Rostislav Lazarenko ejected.
15.04 Su-25 shot down by Russian fighter near Izyum. Pilot, captain Yegor Seredyuk, killed.
14.05 Su-25 was shot down in Gulyaipole, Zaporizhia region by a SAM missile. Pilot captain Sergey Parkhomenko died.
26.06 The Chief of Intelligence of the 299th Tactical Aviation Brigade, Alexander Kukurba, died while carrying out a combat mission in his Su-25 “Blue 16” near the city of Dnepr.
15.08 Colonel Yuri Pokhory's Su-25 was lost during combat operations with Russian troops.
7.09 Su-25 "Blue 28" was shot down by Russian troops during a combat mission. Pilot of the 299th tactical aviation brigade Vadim Blagovistny was killed.
19.09 Su-25 was shot down by an Osa air defense system in the Donetsk region, near the village of Yegorovka, the pilot ejected and was evacuated.
2023
06.01 Su-25 was shot down by a MANPADS over Bakhmut, the pilot ejected and was picked up by his own people.
27.01 Su-25, "Blue 37" was shot down by a Russian fighter in the Kramatorsk area, the pilot of the 299th tactical aviation brigade Danilo Murashko was killed.
10.10 Su-25 was destroyed by strike drone ZALA "Lancet 3" on the runway of the Dolgintsevo airbase near Krivoy Rog.
2024
7.02 Su-25 from the 299th Tactical Aviation Brigade was shot down by a Russian Su-35 during a combat sortie in the Kherson region. Pilot Vladislav Rykov died.
6.06 The Lancet unmanned aerial vehicle damaged a Su-25 at the airbase in Krivoy Rog so much that it could not be repaired.
11.06 Su-25 was destroyed by a Lancet UAV at the airbase in Krivoy Rog.
29.07 Su-25 was destroyed by a Lancet UAV at the airbase in Krivoy Rog.
14.12 Su-25, Blue 27, from the 299th Tactical Aviation Brigade was shot down by a Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missile system near the Kherson region. Pilot Vladislav Igorevich Solop was killed.
This is, of course, an incomplete list of Su-25 losses of the Ukrainian Air Force. I deliberately excluded the aircraft that were destroyed by missile strikes at airfields. But what is there is more than enough to illustrate two things. First, the Su-25 has a lot of enemies. Second, it is almost impossible for an attack aircraft pilot to survive. Of the 22 statistical cases cited, the missiles that shot down the Su-25 took the pilot in 13 cases. If you subtract 22 from 4 losses, when the Su-25s were destroyed at airfields by UAV strikes, then you get very sad statistics. 13 out of 18.
Overall, the picture is quite depressing and the expediency of using an attack aircraft in a modern conflict is questionable. Yes, against terrorists in the Syrian desert is one thing, but against an army that has modern air defense systems and aviation is quite another.
But the saddest thing for the Su-25 attack aircraft in our history is that it has a replacement. And a more effective one than the plane.
Everyone already understood that we will talk about kamikaze UAVs.

Indeed, today these devices cause much more damage than all aviation combined. And indeed, if we compare Drone and an attack aircraft, the drone has many more advantages:
1. Its pilot sits on the ground, at a safe (almost) distance from the target.
2. The UAV is more accurate. Moreover, it is much more accurate than the entire unguided Su-25 nomenclature. It is even more accurate than the "high-precision" Su-25 nomenclature. And 10 kg of explosives in a drone can actually be more effective than 500 kg in a FAB-500, since the bomb will hit where it falls, and the drone will hit where it needs to.
3. UAVs are cheaper. For the amount of money that can fall to the ground in the form of a downed Su-25 that did not have time to make a single launch (taking into account depreciation and old age of at least 10 million dollars), you can simply disfigure the front line of a single enemy unit beyond recognition with drones.

4. Well, I'll repeat myself, but this is the main thing: if a UAV is shot down, its operator will curse, take another drone and fly to the target. A pilot is unlikely to be able to do this for the reasons stated above.
In summary: the Su-25 is an outdated aircraft, both morally and physically, absolutely defenseless against modern weapons and with outdated weapons.
Even the much-talked-about and heartily advertised modernization of the Su-25SM3 in the era of effective management of the Russian Defense Ministry cannot meet modern requirements. Well, they added the GLONASS satellite navigation system, which can allow flying in “zero” visibility. Useful. The PNK SVP-24-25 sighting system (a variant of the SVP-24 “Gefest” for the Su-25), which “allows for increasing the accuracy of unguided airborne weapons to the level of guided weapons” — well, that’s not very good at all, but let those who want to believe it believe it.
An attack aircraft without a radar, using unguided weapons - today it is really the day before yesterday. A controlled kamikaze drone is a high-precision weapon, which is several orders of magnitude greater than all the capabilities of an attack aircraft.
In general, it is not for nothing that by order of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief and the President of Russia the Army-2025 forum was cancelled in favor of the Unmanned Systems: Technologies of the Future forum, which will be held in Skolkovo from August 7 to 17, 2025.
Priorities have been set.
However, they have been in place for a long time. Back when developments on the topics of promising fighters and bombers, and even interceptors, appeared. But we did not see the attack direction, PAK SHA.
Simple and logical? Yes, quite so.
And here everything is simple: you need to be able to say goodbye. Nothing lasts forever, and more modern weapons systems sooner or later replace the old, albeit familiar ones. The musket and arquebus replaced the bow and crossbow in their time, the machine gun replaced the three-line rifle, and the jet plane took the place of the piston plane.
So it's time for attack aviation to go down in history. At least after the Su-25 (this is also worth thinking about) no country in the world has developed aircraft of this class. And will not develop them any more. The Su-25 is the last representative.
Of course, there are still many Rooks flying, especially in poorer countries, but the Chinese Q-5 and German Tornado have already been retired, and the US has been deciding for years what to do with its A-10. Although the US, which likes to restore order in third and fourth world countries, may find the flying devil Warthog useful.
In our case, the Su-25 will fly for some time until the remaining aircraft are completely exhausted, after which Russia's attack aviation will finally become history. Aircraft that could iron out the enemy's forward defense line from a line of sight will cease their work, since in the same SVO there is no forward defense line as such. And the dispersal of troops is very high, MLRS and tactical missiles have already trained personnel on both sides.
And why all this, dashing assault attacks, if the operator is able to put the drone where he considers necessary from an absolutely safe distance for himself? Just like at the Krivoy Rog airfield, our operators calmly burned Ukrainian Su-25s. And if it really is necessary to strike with something heavier than the 5-10 kg of explosives in the drone, then the Su-30 will calmly and most importantly - more accurately than the Su-25 will put the missile. And the plane will be at a safe distance, and the operator will guide and adjust the missile, without distracting the pilot. Well, if it is necessary to put something very large, for this there is the Su-34, the operator of which will also bring the high-explosive bomb with the UMPK to its logical end.
This is the prospect for attack aircraft. The end is final and irrevocable, and no matter what anyone says, no matter what projects are built on the Internet, we must be able to admit: the era of blind and deaf aircraft with unguided weapons has passed finally and irrevocably. It is probably a pleasant moment that the last "clean" attack aircraft in the world is our Su-25, which has been through more than a dozen wars and conflicts, but the future belongs to more economical UAVs in all respects and modern fighter-bombers.
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