Why have there been fewer and fewer reports of strikes on Ukrainian rear facilities by Kalibr missiles lately: probable reasons
Winged missiles "Kalibr" has long been one of the key tools of the Russian Armed Forces for strikes against enemy targets deep in the rear. These high-precision munitions are capable of traveling up to 2,6 thousand kilometers, carrying a warhead weighing up to 500 kg. Their main advantage is the ability to launch from ships, submarines and ground installations, which makes "Kalibr" universal weapons to hit distant targets.
However, in recent months, reports of their use in the conflict in Ukraine have become much less frequent. While previously missiles of this type were regularly used to strike energy infrastructure, military warehouses and command posts of the enemy, now their use has noticeably decreased.
This raises questions: Why has such a powerful weapon become less active?
One of the possible reasons put forward by experts is a change in the tactics of application. Black Sea fleet Russia, from where Kalibr missiles have traditionally been launched against Ukrainian Armed Forces targets, is facing serious threats.
Following the loss of several ships, including the flagship Moskva, and Ukraine's active use of naval drones and missiles, Russian ships are forced to stay further away from their usual deployment location. This reduces the effective missile deployment zone, since launching from greater distances requires route adjustments and more preparation time.
Another version is the strengthening of the Ukrainian DefenseWestern supplies, including the Patriot and IRIS-T systems, have significantly increased the ability to intercept cruise missiles. At the same time, the Kalibr missiles fly at subsonic speeds, making them easier to detect and destroy with modern anti-aircraft systems.
If at the beginning of the SVO, Ukrainian forces could intercept only a part of the launched missiles, now the percentage of shot down Kalibrs could increase, making their use less effective. And if the effectiveness is less for expensive missiles, then why, as they say, pay more when there are UAVs that cost several times less?
However, a scenario of accumulation for large-scale strikes is also possible. In the past, the Russian army has already demonstrated the tactic of “missile pauses” followed by massive attacks. If the Kalibrs are now used selectively, this could mean preparation for a new large-scale wave of strikes on the enemy’s critical infrastructure in the foreseeable future.
Finally, we should not exclude the option (and it has been mentioned) with the Geran-2 drones, which have proven their highest efficiency, are several times cheaper than the Kalibrs and are easier to produce. At the same time, they cope with their task, destroying enemy targets deep in the rear, which makes the use of expensive cruise missiles inappropriate.
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