Military Review

Leonid Ivashov: “I don’t think that North Korea is madmen who will strike first”

35
North Korea does not have the potential to threaten and oppose America [/ b]


Now we are witnessing a clash on the Korean Peninsula within the framework of the information war and nothing more. There will be no nuclear war, especially with missile launches, and there can be no. There are interested parties in this conflict, but neither side benefits a big war, especially a missile war: neither South Korea, nor the DPRK, nor the United States, nor Japan. There are no parties interested in the war, which means that the chances of stopping the conflict are quite large.

In this informational, propaganda war, the DPRK relies on its entire arsenal

But in this informational, psychological war there are grant winners. The Americans unwound this situation by conducting powerful exercises with the South Korean troops: flying nuclear bombers along the border, offensive operations, the object of which was, naturally, North Korea.

For what purpose? First, new young leaders came: a nice woman in South Korea became president, and comrade Kim Jong-un received the legacy of the position of head of North Korea. It is clear that they are under the influence of military experts, so the Americans took into account this circumstance and the fact that the new leaders (especially the North Korean leader) should show the military and their people readiness to defend the independence and security of the country just as and his father, and his grandfather.

The army of North Korea is larger than the Russian, in number and even in the number of weapons. True, they have it is not quite new, but still it is a formidable force. Naturally, they will not use it, but they are forced to show readiness to use to contain the war. The DPRK relies on its entire arsenal in this informational, propaganda war, including nuclear devices (they have no warheads, according to American data), and on those missiles they successfully develop and test - short, medium and intercontinental (although they do not have the latest rocket). Naturally, South Korea responds with the same rhetoric.

Positions of Japanese militarism strengthened

What dividends have the Americans and the Japanese received today? For example, they are trying to wipe our nose: “You see, you are against our American missile defense, but the real threat has arisen.” The Obama administration explains the same to its population and even helps intimidate it so that they do not interfere with military spending.

Great won on the Korean issue Japan. After all, according to the constitution, it was forbidden to have its own armed forces, the Ministry of Defense, the general staff, and so on. And now Japan, in fact, has left the constitutional framework and has the most powerful group of armed forces, creates its own rockets, and no one condemns them. Before the Fukushima events, they were working on a nuclear warhead. Therefore, now the position of Japanese militarism is strengthening.

The Americans also tested the behavior of the new Chinese leadership with their military exercises; They probably also thought about how the new Putin would lead himself in this situation ... That is, this is a complex geopolitical operation. But Americans are not interested in a big war either, but they are also trying to push the North Koreans and South Koreans into internecine conflict, as they do in the Middle East, North Africa, in the Latin American continent - this will be a great success.

The media often issue stamps depicting North Korea as a cave dinosaur.

Today, it seems to me, it is necessary to translate this rhetoric into the mainstream of political and diplomatic negotiations, consultations and deduce the situation. Otherwise, God forbid, some random incident on the 38th parallel, where the line of confrontation is located, and further the escalation of the war can move spontaneously. Indeed, 40 kilometers from this zone is the capital of South Korea. If they strike, the answer will be: on the side of South Korea with aviation the group will be the Americans. This is not desirable for Korea, nor for Russia, nor for China. It is necessary to restrain the situation.

The main question here is: the southerners have a guarantor of their security - this is the United States, and North Korea does not. It is necessary to think that the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (it needs to be raised) would define such a security guarantee for Pyongyang.

I do not think that North Korea is the madmen who will strike first, especially with missiles, it is impossible to joke. They do not have the potential to threaten and oppose America, so this will be self-destruction.

However, the media often issue stamps, depicting North Korea as a cave dinosaur. Even serious journalists and political scientists talk about it. But you will not become a rocket power in a cave, and 20 cannot stand for years in an embargo. Now, if Russia is now put in the North Korean conditions, then we will begin to die out in two weeks. And they keep and develop.
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  1. Ivan Tarasov
    Ivan Tarasov April 15 2013 06: 35
    +3
    The United States benefits from boosting the Asia-Pacific region, as it allows the Asian stock markets to be manipulated.
    With the help of artificial psychosis, American businessmen want to cook more.
    1. Alexander Romanov
      Alexander Romanov April 15 2013 07: 24
      0
      Quote: Ivan Tarasov
      With the help of artificial psychosis, American businessmen want to cook more.

      And the food for this psychosis in this case gives Kim. His idle talk already got, if not for his constant threats, he would live quietly and calmly, and the DPRK economy developed at a rapid pace thanks to China. Less need to fuss about in the modern world.
      1. svp67
        svp67 April 15 2013 08: 09
        +2
        Quote: Alexander Romanov
        And the food for this psychosis in this case gives Kim. His idle talk already got, if not for his constant threats, he would live quietly and calmly, and the DPRK economy developed at a rapid pace thanks to China. Less need to fuss about in the modern world.


        He may provide food, but the great merit in stirring up all this hysteria belongs to the US-controlled media. When the DPRK leadership makes non-ambiguous steps towards rapprochement, holding international basketball matches, etc., the United States does not "notice" this, but any "sigh" against it immediately swells to monstrous proportions. Since this "hysteria" is beneficial to the United States , especially to the representatives of its military-industrial complex, another reason for the Senate to "cut down" money. We have a lot of talk about the "fight" in the "information field", isn't it time to move from words to deeds, since we are clearly losing the "fight" on this "field" ..
        1. Alexander Romanov
          Alexander Romanov April 15 2013 08: 21
          +1
          Quote: svp67
          but a huge merit in fueling all this hysteria belongs to the US-controlled media.

          Now the Baltic States and Poland are yelling about the threat from Russia, and so what? You can shout anything, but despite all the efforts of the US media, they do not take these issues seriously, because there is no aggressive rhetoric from Russia. Now on DPRK TV, it’s not so much a day that we’ll kill, strike, destroy, take Seoul ..... There will be no such mess and the US media will end up on a hungry spider. And even South Korea does not burn the desire to fight.
          Let Kim sit down at the table and negotiate, otherwise they should not carry cement bags to star.
          1. Egoza
            Egoza April 15 2013 10: 48
            +1
            Quote: Alexander Romanov
            Let Kim sit down at the table and negotiate, otherwise they should not carry cement bags to star.

            You are certainly right! Only now he is still very young. And he needs the authority of the people to earn. So I grabbed the provocation (If it was from the side of South Korea) You know, as if they had put a very young boy of the age of 16 at the head of the regiment. And here he is so brave, ahead on a white horse, ur-yayaya, behind me! And he did not notice that he played into the hands of a much more experienced opponent - the master of provocations - the United States. IMHO
          2. Yarbay
            Yarbay April 15 2013 10: 52
            +2
            Quote: Alexander Romanov
            Let Kim sit down at the table

            Yes, no one will touch him Sanya and he knows about it perfectly)))
            If Sev.Korei does not suffer, then the amers will quickly lose the southern one)))
          3. svp67
            svp67 April 15 2013 11: 07
            +1
            Quote: Alexander Romanov
            Now on DPRK TV, that not a day we’ll kill, strike, destroy, take Seoul ....


            It is common practice in such a situation, in such a country. Kim-3 did not come to power alone; behind him is a certain group of "comrades". And in order to divert the attention of citizens from internal problems, including from local "cleansing operations", and to cover them up, an "external enemy" is used. I say it again - a common practice. Everyone understands perfectly well that these are "soap bubbles". But someone knows how to use them, for their own good, but someone should also learn from ...
            1. Alexander Romanov
              Alexander Romanov April 15 2013 11: 10
              0
              Quote: svp67
              Common practice in such a situation,

              It is nonsense!!!
              Quote: svp67
              And to distract the attention of citizens from internal problems,

              With the help of China, the DPRK could solve all its problems, but ........ ordinary stupidity and again stupidity!
              1. svp67
                svp67 April 15 2013 11: 25
                +2
                Quote: Alexander Romanov
                It is nonsense!!!


                And the history of our country, is not an example for you?

                With the help of China, the DPRK could solve all its problems, but ........ ordinary stupidity and again stupidity!


                China is not omnipotent, and it will not "disinterestedly" solve all the problems of the DPRK, and does the "group of comrades from the DPRK" want this?
          4. s1н7т
            s1н7т April 15 2013 22: 40
            0
            For some reason I think that Kim is not and not with a hangover builds such a line of behavior. So far he has not attacked anyone, but only warns his enemies from this. Another thing is that the media is serving it this way - Kim is about to attack. As they say, look for someone who benefits from it. Do not offer Kim laughing
    2. APASUS
      APASUS April 15 2013 19: 40
      +1
      Quote: Ivan Tarasov
      The United States benefits from injection into the Asia-Pacific region, as it allows you to manipulate Asian stock markets

      I would say more ......... everything will depend on the economic success of the United States! If the market conditions begin to take shape not in favor of the United States, then I think they will do everything to play this card with the war !!!
  2. fenix57
    fenix57 April 15 2013 06: 42
    +3
    Hello to all of you. "... "See, you are opposed to our American missile defense system, but a real threat has arisen.".. "- with all due respect to the title of the author of the article, the writer of these lines said the same thing about this, but in a different context and a little earlier. But the MEANING IS THE SAME. Now amers are justifying their missile defense system installed in Southeast Asia and who in this they were "helped" (perhaps indirectly, but nevertheless) - the DPRK. And the DPRK is an ardent opponent of the US An interesting picture (or oil painting). Well, I'm not an analyst, what is said is said. hi
    1. esaul
      esaul April 15 2013 07: 05
      +2
      fenix57
      Salute, Valery hi
      Quote: fenix57
      Now amers justify their missile defense system installed in Southeast Asia and who "helped" them in this (maybe indirectly, but nevertheless) -KPDR

      In principle, the theory is quite viable. But, more credible are the words
      Quote: fenix57
      maybe indirectly

      But, personally, for some reason I see in this situevina reasons lying on the surface - the desire of the DPRK according to the "good old tradition", with a wave of a nuclear cobblestone (they still cannot make an ax. Eight nuclear warheads that cannot even be tied with twines to their "Tekhkodon "or - whatever it is ... This is a cobblestone that you can wave over your head from afar, threatening the enemy) with the requirement to force them to give them fuel and lubricants or food rations, and the Americans, due to their speculative sneakiness, rushed in time to strengthen their presence in the APR, friend -the friend is quite complementary.
      1. Kaa
        Kaa April 15 2013 09: 17
        +4
        Quote: esaul
        Eight nuclear warheads that cannot even be tied to their Tekhkodon or whatever it is with strings.

        In 1949, at first, too, "there was nothing to tie to" - but the Americans "cut in the back." And Russia should be at least a little uncomfortable in front of the DPRK, and here's why: In 1995-1997, both Koreas had a crop failure - either floods or droughts. South Korea was given an awesome loan from the IMF, and for North Korea, at the suggestion of American advisers to our "young reformers" and personally EBNa Russia REFUSED food. In those years, according to rumors, the DPRK lived as in the besieged Leningrad, because only 16% of the territory is suitable for terraced farming, which was eroded. The DPRK now trades with 120 countries, but they all control Uncle SAM. And there is something to sell it, and consumer goods, not worse than Chinese, and the notorious rare earth metals, not less than in China, and much more interesting. Refusing this because of the extravagance of their leader, it turns out that we continue to play on a paw with the United States? request
      2. aksakal
        aksakal April 15 2013 13: 49
        +1
        Quote: esaul
        But, personally, for some reason, I see in this situevina reasons lying on the surface - the desire of the DPRK according to the "good old tradition", with a wave of a nuclear cobblestone

        - Greetings, Esaul! I am surprised, I confess, by your simplified vision of the situation on the Korean peninsula. "Kim Jong-un is a dictator, he is extorting humanitarian aid from the poor States through nuclear blackmail, Russia should stay away from such countries, because the population of these countries is idlers who do not know how to work and are subject, if not to destruction, then to cardinal and violent changes in the very way of life. ".
        Honestly surprised. There was a lot of argument about this on past branches, you would go there, there were a lot of interesting things revealed in the dispute.
        And the liberal’s simplified preparations for the limited and unwilling to delve into the vicissitudes of the geopolitics of citizens are worthless to use, especially for a forum member of your level. I do not idealize North Korea, it’s not the best country, but I’ve got to the bottom of it. They want to live like that? Let them live for themselves and be happy! At the last Olympics, not a single DPRK athlete (and played at a very high level) did not run away and did not ask for political asylum - all Western countries and South Korea would be glad of this, and Kim Jong-un would not have got them in any way - intelligence agencies of the wrong level . So did not run away! So everything is in order there! For comparison, the USSR had every Olympics, with the exception of 80 (held in Moscow) and 84 (the conspirators didn’t go to Los Angeles) who ran at least one athlete each. About the ballerons and other cultural figures in general I am silent.
        And I’ll say that this last aggravation was provoked precisely by the extremely provocative exercises of Yukorea with the States, with the development of a nuclear strike and the development of the occupation of the North. Korea, and with the scenario of the attack from South Korea. Against the background of Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan, Serbia, Syria, I, if I were Kim Jong-un (and physically I look like), I would not react like that, but worse, that would not seem a little and forget about such exercises at all! Not just with rhetoric, but with a large movement of troops to the border, in general, the Soviets would put on the verge of a foul, but WITHOUT WAR!
        Yesaul, you deserve more, you deserve to think with your own head! I am surprised!
        1. esaul
          esaul April 16 2013 06: 36
          0
          Salute, AKSAKAL! hi
          Quote: aksakal
          Yesaul, you deserve more, you deserve to think with your own head! I am surprised!
          Warning Reply Quote Change Report abuse

          It’s flattering, buddy, to hear from you like that. repeat But, you can't fool me on chaff! laughing This is a joke, as you understand ..
          And on the merits of your post - I believe that there is no need to "look for a black cat in a dark room, especially if this cat is not there."
          If you start from the chronology of the whole chain of events that led to the crisis on the Korean peninsula, you can clearly see that the spring aggravation (reinforced maneuvers of the striped with the southerners) began after Kim simply began to ignore their calls for the denuclearization of the peninsula. These calls have sounded before, and Kim at least formally, but reacted to them. And here he defiantly (in defiance) began to increase the pace. And for a moment he went forward (with outstretched hand) stating that he was ready to discuss the issues raised by the whales. but, certainly, with the linking of certain preferences (read - humanitarian aid) for the DPRK. But, by this time already striped with southerners - it has incurred. And then - like a snowball, in increasing increment. Then the caterpillars hinted at a desire to seek a compromise. And here Kim has already suffered. That's how we live...
          And as for patriotism and its eloquent illustration in the form of the absence of defectors, then there are defectors. Infa passed through the escaped physicists and other specialists. Political motives are not always the basis of these actions, but these facts are there, a colleague. You simply won’t surprise and scare anyone with these facts. The world is globalizing. In this era of confrontation between the two superpowers, similar cases were used by the parties to praise their system and defame the opponent’s system.
          And I, with all my "discernment" laughing I remain with the most simplified understanding of Un’s position. You really do not judge strictly, colleague hi
          Sincerely, Esaul.
    2. engineer74
      engineer74 April 15 2013 08: 44
      +2
      There is a proposal to bring reality into line with American propaganda - to share nuclear missile technologies with the DPRK!
  3. Vanek
    Vanek April 15 2013 06: 50
    +1
    Have you noticed a word about this topic on the news? Neither on the radio nor on the TV.

    This is not good.
    1. esaul
      esaul April 15 2013 07: 19
      0
      Quote: Vanek
      This is not good.

      Salute, countryman hi Nothing special will happen. I said that Eunwoo will have to blow out his cheeks. Everything is inclined to believe that his next blackmail was a success. Already, isolated statements from the West are circulating about the provision of assistance in exchange for "respect and adherence to international agreements" from the DPRK. So now Eun, like a hamster, will again stuff grains into his cheeks and calm down in a burrow until next spring.
      I am bored with those who declare that we are obliged to treat the DPRK like brothers. Even Mr. Ivashov dedicated an article on this topic. And you, colleagues, ask if the Koreans (DPRK, and not those who live on the territory of the Russian Federation. These - their own) consider us their "brothers". Far from it! They treat us in an Asian way with patience and restraint, as for a FORCED and STRONGER neighbor, and quietly condemning, as not sharing the invaluable values ​​of "Chu-chhe". For Russia, the DPRK is a buffer ally, nothing more, and so that this buffer does not corrode and rot, it must be “tricked” at the right time.
      1. Vanek
        Vanek April 15 2013 07: 41
        +2
        Quote: esaul
        Salute, countryman


        Valery hi

        Quote: esaul
        his next shanage was a success


        No more, no less. Although today is the 15th. Let's see what happens.
  4. Vanek
    Vanek April 15 2013 06: 51
    0
    Have you noticed a word about this topic on the news? Neither on the radio nor on the TV.

    This is not good.
  5. engineer74
    engineer74 April 15 2013 07: 53
    +1
    "We need to think that the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (we need to raise it) would define such a security guarantee for Pyongyang."
    In my opinion, it is easier to sell security guarantees to opponents of the DPRK. wink (SCO non-military bloc, but more economic)
    "Now, if Russia is now put in North Korean conditions, then we will begin to die out in two weeks."
    The USSR survived in the worst conditions! The country was ruined by openness and unnecessary contacts of the "elites" with the West. It is not a fact that complete isolation is an absolute evil, maybe it will make you believe in your own strength. IMHO.
    1. Egoza
      Egoza April 15 2013 10: 53
      +4
      Quote: engineer74
      The USSR survived in worse conditions!

      So it was the USSR! And now it may not survive (if Russia were in North Korean conditions), given the venality of the "elites".
      There can be no absolute isolation in the modern world, but it is quite possible to put tough barriers to all kinds of undesirable influences.
      1. engineer74
        engineer74 April 15 2013 11: 02
        0
        The USSR is only 70 years of Russian history. smile
        I meant that with isolation, cleaning the country's leadership becomes a necessary condition for survival.
        1. huut
          huut April 16 2013 00: 01
          +1
          Quote: engineer74
          The USSR is only 70 years of Russian history.


          For some, this is the whole story) Neither before nor after - nothing.
      2. s1н7т
        s1н7т April 15 2013 22: 52
        -2
        Quote: Egoza
        So that was the USSR! And now it may not survive

        I bet it won’t survive!
  6. UFO
    UFO April 15 2013 08: 08
    -1
    All hi "And in general, it wouldn’t hurt, on the sly," samurai "in the face to pout." yes
  7. fenix57
    fenix57 April 15 2013 09: 15
    +1
    Quote: esaul
    But, personally, for some reason I see in this situevina reasons lying on the surface - the desire of the DPRK according to the "good old tradition", with a wave of a nuclear cobblestone (they still cannot make an ax. Eight nuclear warheads that cannot even be tied with twines to their "Tekhkodon "or - whatever it is

    Oh, the words you all say are not clear laughing , so about what they "ask" in their own way, I wrote before, for this miiiiiinus, but we have a lot of "warriors at the desk" - read - at the computer. It is easy to "PLAY BATTLES" in vertual, but in real life ....
  8. mark1
    mark1 April 15 2013 10: 50
    +2
    If you follow conspiracy theory, then you can see the conspiracy between Washington and Pyongyang. The Americans, taking advantage of the situation, will quickly stir the missile defense systems around China and our Far East, and then, in order to "reduce the degree", enter into negotiations with the DPRK and give them everything they want (within reasonable limits, of course). As a result, we and China have problems.
    Well, you need to smoke a lot to take seriously the threats of the DPRK, it is dangerous only for the Republic of Kazakhstan and more for itself.
  9. fenix57
    fenix57 April 15 2013 10: 56
    +1
    Quote: esaul
    So now Eun, like a hamster, crams seeds in his cheeks again and calms down in a mink until next spring.
    I bastard over those who declare that we are obligated to treat the DPRK as fraternal. There, even, Mr. Ivashov devoted an article on this subject. And you, colleagues, take an interest - do Koreans think

    I apologize for getting into the topic, BUT, we will survive the 15th, in any case. And then, AS THE DPRK THINKS-ALL from the UN GALOP PONESU-U-U-UUUT for the DPRK. BUT ABOUT WE ALREADY ... IN A NEARBY ... And the whole mess (good missile defense) justifies itself .. I wish the SON was easier than me,
    did not climb ... there. and there ... drinks
  10. AndreyAB
    AndreyAB April 15 2013 11: 06
    0
    Quite right - the war is hopeless and unnecessary to anyone, the only thing during the promotion of this incident was the courtesy brotherhood of the mass media bashfully silent about the provocative actions of the United States and South Korea - it doesn’t matter, but the North Koreans want to live as they like, so it’s already in their eyes ” Democrats "crime with all that it implies, examples throughout the Middle East.
  11. Strashila
    Strashila April 15 2013 13: 14
    -1
    In the hot phase of relations, neither North nor South are interested. But there is a dirty ally of the South ... amerikosy ... he can easily create a whitewash incident, he is not in the first.
  12. zemlyak
    zemlyak April 15 2013 14: 05
    +2
    Why all this hysteria with the DPRK? After all, it is clear as daylight that the legs of this "problem" are growing out of China, North Korean puppeteers are sitting in Beijing. It is quite an adequate response of China to American policy in this region. Covering its "rear" after the visit of the new General Secretary of the People's Republic of China, Comrade Xi, to Moscow and dragging Russia on its side, China threw a test balloon in the direction of America. The PRC poked a stick (DPR) into the snake ball (USA, Japan and hedgehogs with them) and now they are watching them with interest. That's all
  13. Semyon Albertovich
    Semyon Albertovich April 15 2013 14: 57
    +2
    The whipping up of hysteria by the States around the DPRK helps to keep many countries on a short leash: Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, N.Zeland ----- !!!! Well, others who eat this dog-dog move or big magician !! !
  14. Vtel
    Vtel April 15 2013 16: 39
    +2
    Now the Yankees must pay grants to Kim Jong-un, for the successful militarization of the Asia-Pacific region. The Yankees skoko killed the Japanese in 1945, the Koreans in 1950-53, and they love them more than us - "barbarians" - the strange love of a rabbit for a boa constrictor.
  15. krez-74
    krez-74 April 15 2013 16: 39
    +2
    Is it so difficult to throw a bone between fools so that they start squabbling? History shows that if only it becomes profitable for someone, "there" fools, both offended and humiliated, and the need to protect their interests ... DPRK is a doll necessary for a certain performance!
  16. lilit.193
    lilit.193 April 15 2013 17: 21
    0
    But if Ivashov is right and Koreans are not crazy, then why do they behave so inadequately. Ponte bash, then roll out their rockets, then again they roll under a canopy. Ponte pound? Fill your own price?
    Serious people don’t do that. If you removed the weapon, then use it. And if you are not going to apply, then you do not need to extract it. This is not the man’s behavior of this Kim Jong In.
    1. s1н7т
      s1н7т April 15 2013 22: 59
      -1
      Quote: lilit.193
      This is not the man’s behavior of this Kim Jong In.

      Shopipets! laughing Have you already defined for yourself what is "like a man"? laughing
      And judging by the media is stupid. I remember that Saddam "threatened" with chemical weapons, for example. And where is it ?!
      1. lilit.193
        lilit.193 April 15 2013 23: 45
        0
        How to behave "like a man" should be determined not by me, but by Kim Jong Inu (and you, Valentine, too, since you consider yourself a man). And when he decides on his behavior and actions firmly, and stops behaving like a bazaar woman, then there will be no shopper. wink
        I hope I explained it clearly and clearly. Or will it nevertheless require clarification of all the nuances associated with gender and the accompanying model of behavior? wink
        1. lilit.193
          lilit.193 April 16 2013 12: 11
          +1
          Wow! belay This is who I stepped on with my heel on his most gentle "manly"? wassat But to light up and leave your comment here in response was weak? wink
          laughing laughing laughing laughing laughing laughing laughing
  17. Gorchakov
    Gorchakov April 15 2013 21: 38
    0
    I agree with Ivashov that the northerners are far from fools ... And their young leader is doing everything right, but in order to understand this you need to have an analytical mindset ... Keep their black body Eun and don’t go to these insolents about it, Do not be like our Gorbachev ... Say what you want and observe the regime of secrecy !!! And the provocateurs will screech and urinate in diapers from powerlessness and lack of reliable information .... And let them think what you have and what not .... You can only check this by attacking ... Risk who is the first?