“The regions that are likely to become the scene of conflicts are the Far East, the Near and Middle East, the post-Soviet space, first of all the Caucasus, Ukraine and some countries of Central Asia, Pakistan and India,” Viktor Kovalyov, secretary of the Academy of Military Sciences, told the VIEW newspaper . He does not exclude the beginning of the Third World War in the coming decade.In the next decade, a new world war may break out on the planet, suggested Sergei Malkov, a member of the Academy of Military Sciences, MSU professor. As the newspaper VIEW reported, the professor spoke at the first meeting of the working group on training for the defense industrial complex of the coordination council on youth affairs in the scientific and educational spheres. The working group was established under the auspices of the Presidential Council on Science and Education.
“What situation are we in? The end of the fifth wave of Kondratieff and the transition to the sixth technological order. In the coming 10 years, strong political and technological instability is waiting for us, ”said Malkov, adding that countries that do not have time to move from the fifth to the sixth technological cycle will lag behind in technological development by 50 years.
Recall the theory of large cycles or waves developed by the Soviet economist Nikolai Kondratiev. According to it, in the global economy there are periodic cycles of 40 – 60 years, each of which consists of alternating phases of relatively high and relatively low rates of economic growth.
Viktor Kovalev, scientific secretary of the section of the Academy of Military Sciences, Candidate of Technical Sciences, winner of the Leninist Komsomol Award, told the newspaper VZGLYAD how serious the forecasts are and whether there are any prerequisites for another world war today.
Section Secretary of the Academy of Military Sciences Viktor Kovalev
VIEW: Viktor Ivanovich, your colleague from the Academy believes that the world is completing "the fifth wave of Kondratieff and moving on to the sixth technological order." Do you agree?Viktor Kovalev: Malkov said that there are certain laws. Now at about the same time, the Kondratieff cycle ends (40 – 60 years), the Juggler cycle (7 – 12 years), the Kuznets cycle (16 – 25 years). Retrospective analysis of the world stories shows that at such times a “big war” is very likely. This is a time of great political instability. The world is waiting for big changes, the more there is the United States, which "big war" is very necessary. It solves many problems at once connected with financial bubbles, with redistribution of role functions in the world and so on. As historical experience shows, the United States has twice solved its problems at the expense of the “big war”.
This does not mean that the armada of aircraft and cruise missiles will be immediately used, atomic bombs will explode. War can also occur in other areas, for example, in the mental sphere, with the unrestricted use of other means, including with the initiation of terrorist activity in the territory of the enemy. But it does not become less destructive.
VIEW: Will the term “soft power” be a thing of the past?
V.К .: “Soft power” is, as a rule, a misleading term. In the classical sense, it is connected with the fact that the country is increasing its goodwill. In the simplest sense, this term means "good name." Having a high goodwill, she can "gently manage" in the latent phases of interstate conflicts. And when a country organizes the direct use of means of direct influence on an adversary, and this may not be material, but also mental, this is already a war.
For example, the implementation of “managed chaos” technologies (Mann) on the world stage is that “soft power”? Bombs do not explode, but, nevertheless, population losses are terrible. The use of controlled chaos technology is comparable to weapons mass destruction.
"America will find the battle slaves"
By the way, it is interesting to note that these technologies are an “Anglo-Saxon invention,” the British began to develop them. In 1943, the well-known physicist, mathematician, aerodynamic Owen Uillans Richardson, under the bombs in London, decided that than to fight the enemy directly on the field, it’s better, before anticipating, to organize the destruction of his military-industrial potential without direct collision. And he didn’t just decide, but worked out the relevant scientific and theoretical principles.
VIEW: But are the current conditions suitable for the start of open hostilities?
V.К .: In its strategic concept, NATO has significantly expanded the concept of the fundamental “fifth article” of its charter, which defines the conditions under which military force can be used. There appeared such new formulations that almost unlimitedly expand the conditions of military reaction: these are hacker attacks, and infringement of the interests of the business of NATO member states, and many other things that were not previously related to the concept of “external aggression”, but now this is an excuse for the outbreak of hostilities.
It is impossible not to notice the elementary fact that the formulations in the new strategic concept of NATO are such that NATO members can quite arbitrarily determine their own guilty country and begin to "defend themselves" from it. That is, the base for further action is already being prepared.
Malkov and other scientists do not predict a war, they say that this is very likely due to the nature of the cyclical changes in the world system. Science speaks about this, and this is not just his personal opinion.
VIEW: Someone other than the United States, now may be a new "arsonist" of war?
V.К .: One of the most famous presidents of the United States said the following: “We must organize a war in such a way that everyone thinks that we care about anything other than peace.” That is, the US can beautifully organize a war with someone else’s hands, while they themselves can join it already in a more favorable position. It is they, strictly speaking, who have done it several times before, having entered the World War I in 1917, and in World War II - in the 1941. Currently, the “prelude of a big war” is seen, first of all, in the Middle East.
Trying to play the "Chinese gambit"
Now Turkey actively wants to consolidate its future geopolitical status. France is active. If you look impartially, then it is clear that France is “climbing” into all the events of the so-called Arab spring. And if the events in Tunisia can somehow be called a “spontaneous popular revolt”, then the events in all other countries of the Middle East and the Maghreb are a classic covert operation of the special services, later supported by Western armed forces, primarily France. Unfortunately, there are many people willing to war, especially if it is profitable and safe. So, for the start of a big war, America will find battle slaves for themselves.
In the Asia-Pacific region, the situation is more complicated. Here, in my opinion, America is trying to play a kind of "Chinese gambit". So form a situation to direct the aspirations of China in the north direction. But the Chinese are an old, wise, experienced nation, they are not so easily pushed. But in general, there are still no serious factors indicating the preparation of a “big war”.
VIEW: What about North Korea? Or will it be limited to belligerent rhetoric?
V.К .: Poor North Korea wants only one thing: to be left alone. All her demarches are ways of reflexive control, opposition to the subjects of conflict. In addition, one can not ignore the fact that for almost 70 years they actually live in wartime conditions, an external blockade. Naturally, the nerves can pass.
Korea itself first will not climb. This is a very peaceful country. In the Korean ethnic mentality dogmatic grounds for aggressive behavior are completely absent. The leaders of Korea are not idiots. The external aggressiveness of the state, as can be shown on the basis of the theory of reflexive control of Lefebvre, is a rational behavioral strategy of the weak.
In fact, from the point of view of “high science”, the strong should behave more peacefully and calmly. But the weak should behave aggressively and imitate the possibility of causing some unacceptable damage. But this does not mean that the weak will get into a fight. No, they strive to achieve some of their local goals and that’s all.
Korea needs food, energy, and so that they are not touched, that their “demigods” remain alive and more or less steadily in power, so that no one can push them away using “high humanitarian technologies”.
VIEW: And how, for example, will change the political map of Europe and the whole world to 2050 year?
VK: I do not presume to judge. Africa must change a lot. There is a great potential for conflict. Other changes are difficult to predict. At the same time, I want to note that now there are methods of external government of the country without its direct seizure; it is possible to “milk” the country without the introduction of armed forces. If we talk about specific countries, then Iraq is likely to fall apart, everything goes towards this.
VIEW: And in what corner of the planet do you think a new world conflict will arise?
V.К .: Regions that are likely to become the scene of conflicts are the Far East, the Near and Middle East, the post-Soviet space, first of all the Caucasus, Ukraine and some countries of Central Asia, Pakistan and India.
The large-scale conflicts in question, as in the previous cycles, initiate important geopolitical and geo-economic changes, which in the end, apparently, will lead to the formation of a new world order and a new model of globalization.
# {weapon} The way out of the global crisis of 2008 – 2010 will most likely not lead to stable growth, and already in this and next year a new global economic crisis is very likely. The 2013 – 2014 crisis, as well as similar crises in previous cycles, is likely to lead to significant social and political destabilization, social upheavals and military conflicts.
In the period 2014 – 2025. Large geopolitical and geo-economic shifts (the known analogue of these shifts are shifts of the period 1937 – 1955) are very likely, which will open opportunities for the global spread of the latest and “breakthrough” technologies.
At the same time, the role of the United States and other Western countries may decrease, while the role of China, India and other countries of the East may, on the contrary, increase. The most difficult for Russia in geopolitical terms, if guided by structural similarity with the preceding cycles, is likely to be the period of 2014 – 2025. It is necessary to prepare for the upheavals of this period right now. First and foremost, prepare an adequate strategic deterrent potential.
Reincarnation of the colonial system
In addition, it is necessary to point to the emerging foreign policy trend of a kind of reincarnation of the colonial system. There used to be a colonial system, it collapsed. We have lived quite a bit without her - less than a century. Let's be frank. In the first place, the collapse of the colonial system was influenced by the formation and strengthening of the USSR, the world socialist system. Now we see the beginning of the reverse process, again colonial dependence will be restored, perhaps not only in the classical, but also in some other form.
VIEW: Malkov threatened that countries that do not have time to move from the fifth to the sixth technological cycle, lag behind in technological development for 50 years. What countries will not be able to go and what will happen to them?
V.К .: Many will not succeed. Russia, for example, is still not strengthened in the fifth technological order. It depends on the effectiveness of national governments and other factors. But Africa, most likely, will not be able to move to a new cycle: they still have not reached the fourth order. They are likely to be a colony, perhaps a new type of colony.
VIEW: How are these cycles calculated?
V.К .: The study takes place not at the level of humanitarian discourse, but at the level of building mathematical models. Exploration of the future is carried out on the basis of widespread use of mathematics. At the MSU site, a study was launched on “Integrated Systems Analysis and Modeling of World Dynamics”, briefly called the “Sadovnichy-Akayev program”.
I would like to note that the rant Club of Rome (International Public Organization, engaged in large-scale research, mainly in the socio-economic field - approx. VIEW) is “resting” here. According to its methodological level, it is not suitable "and on hold" of this program. The level of scientific study is quite different. The program deals with economics, conflict management, political science, demography, ecology, and many other global problems - all based on the use of mathematical models.
One of the results of this program indicates that the future is far from being benign. This, of course, does not mean “the end of history”, but rather possible gigantic upheavals. And this can be shown based on the use of mathematical modeling of global processes.