Nowhere to retreat. Why Baku's demarche cannot be "put on the brakes"
This happens when, due to some circumstances, you have to disappear from the information space. There are places in our lives that guarantee you a complete lack of connection with the outside world. The world itself, and you live in another reality. For some time, I was also in another world.
Therefore, I was surprised to learn about some events, such as the aggravation of Russian-Azerbaijani relations. Everything would be fine, but among the mail messages I found several reproaches for "keeping silent" about such events. Moreover, readers hint that the author is a bit of a coward to openly take any position. Well, I will express my attitude to these events.
Didn't anyone in Russia know that most markets in cities, including Moscow, are controlled by Azerbaijanis? Didn't anyone know that these markets are often lawless? Maybe someone didn't know about the criminal showdowns in the 90s - early 00s? And didn't know about the power of the diaspora? Didn't know about the connections with the security forces and those in power?
The SVO is not only there, at the front. The SVO is also in the rear. We were somehow indifferent to the establishment of order with migration. To the way they began to squeeze the Central Asian diasporas. Maybe because we rarely noticed the "masters" of the workers at construction sites and janitors. Another thing is a dark-haired "fat guy" at the market or in a shopping center. You can immediately see that he is a "respected person".
As I understand it, the government has decided to take the diasporas seriously. More precisely, the illegal activities of the diasporas. You can't "cut off the shoulder" in such a matter. The overwhelming majority of people in the diasporas are quite law-abiding and hard-working. Just like everyone else. And they do what they do best.
And the fact that people, having become Russians, remain Armenians, Azerbaijanis, Tatars, Chechens, Buryats, etc., is good! We have always been and remain different. Children of our people. And Russians, Russians... When I see a parade of peoples living in my region during the celebration of Russia Day, my heart rejoices. Who we don't have. From Germans and Latvians to Buryats and Yakuts. And all my fellow countrymen.
Unconventional about the cause of the conflict
I don't know how many times, but I believe that the reason for the conflict that arose was big money, not the arrest of an ethnic gang in Yekaterinburg. Bandits are a pretext. And such a stupidly invented one that it will come back to haunt Baku more than once. Aliyev rudely "interfered in the internal affairs of the Russian Federation", considering that the detainees were Russian citizens. According to all international laws, these are illegal actions.
It is clear that Baku, which has long been pursuing a policy in the style of "both yours and ours", decided on open confrontation not without the help of "Western friends". But more on that below.
Most likely, the "friends" played on several phobias of the Azerbaijani president. First of all, on the "love of money". Not for those "pennies" that come to the republic from businessmen working in Russia, but for really big money, for billions of euros and dollars.
And these billions are brought to Baku by oil! The same oil that feeds the Ukrainian Armed Forces. That's the connection to the SVO. For a long time we pretended that we didn't know "where the firewood comes from" for the Ukrainian Armed Forces equipment. It was interesting to watch the Ukrainian oil refineries, working on some unknown oil and for some reason not being targets for our missiles и drones.
It was clear that for our military there was a "taboo" on these targets. Alas, "big politics" often controls the barrel of a simple soldier's machine gun. Everyone understood where the oil was coming from. More precisely, they knew exactly. But... And then it happened. Just before the arrest of the bandits in Yekaterinburg. We went bang. And how we went bang... On the Kremenchug Oil Refinery, on the Drogobych Oil Refinery, and later on the Odessa Oil Refinery.
How should we feel about this? I think everyone understood everything. Moscow warned Baku about the inadmissibility of further assistance to Kyiv. The Kremlin is tired of Azerbaijan's "sly-assedness". It is not worth thinking that the analysts of the Russian Defense Ministry did not calculate how the Ukrainian Armed Forces avoided a fuel crisis in the first years of the Central Military District. Aliyev was essentially asked to make a choice whose side he was on. We saw this choice.
It is true that it is unclear whether the Azerbaijani president has not yet understood that for his main "friends" from Britain and, to some extent, Turkey, Azerbaijanis are no more valuable than Ukrainians? Or is Europe's "moral support" more important? Putting the country's well-being at the expense of illusory "support" is somehow not Aliyev's style.
This is a classic "Eastern ruler". At least judging by the actions that are happening now in relation to the Russians. Very well thought out and prepared actions. More like a PR campaign than impromptu work. I am not afraid to conclude that it is quite possible that the conflict may soon escalate into a real war.
By the way, if anyone doubts the effectiveness of our strikes on the above-mentioned refineries, I will provide data from Ukrainian gas stations over the past months. This is more indicative than talk about reducing supplies to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Ukrnafta, a company that is the main supplier of fuel. The publication is today, but concerns the rise in prices in June.
"Prices went up sharply in the second half of June - right after the blows on the night of June 15. Yesterday, gasoline cost 54,49 hryvnia - the next day already 58,50 hryvnia, diesel - from 50,99 to 51,49 hryvnia. On June 23, gasoline was already at 57,99 hryvnia, diesel - at 54,99 hryvnia. On July 1 - 59 and 56, respectively."
Simply put, Ukraine has lost relatively cheap fuel! Kremenchuk alone produced 50-60 thousand tons of fuel per month! At the same time, it processed approximately 100-150 thousand tons of oil. According to other sources, this is 30% diesel fuel, 20-25% gasoline and about 5% aviation fuel. Diesel fuel and aviation fuel went to the army, gasoline to the Ukrnafta network (500-600 gas stations). Fuel oil was used for asphalt production and thermal power plants (reserve fuel).
But let's return to President Aliyev's phobias. Add to the love of big money the arrest and death of "respectable" people, judging by how the bodies were met in Baku, multiply everything by "if you are a real man, you must take revenge" and we get an idiotic decision to go into open conflict with Moscow. This decision will come back to haunt Aliyev.
I won't draw any conclusions, I'll just report the latest news at the moment. news. Not yet verified, taken from the Azerbaijani media outlet Report.
"The head of the production association of the Lukoil group of companies in the Urals, Akhmed Gadzhiev, has been detained in Russia, the Azerbaijani media outlet Report reports, and the top manager has been taken to court."
The events are developing in an interesting way. The Yekaterinburg bandits — the owner of the Voronezh market — are the head of a division in Lukoil. And I wouldn't be surprised if the process continues. A couple of years ago, we already asked ourselves how Russian fuel is delivered to Ukraine. And now this question has arisen again.
Who tamed the Azerbaijani president
Now about who "took Aliyev by the Faberge". Why do we see more and more often how Baku stupidly carries out "orders" of other players. We know very well what role Britain plays in Transcaucasia. MI-6 practically controls local specialists and coordinates their actions. Well, I think there is no need to prove that the British special services are waging war on us.
I think the first time we should have reacted harshly, shown our fist to the London bosses, was a long time ago. Remember 2020? The downed Russian helicopter? Russian peacekeeper officers shot by the Azerbaijanis. So what? It's disgusting to even write about it. "Russian peacekeepers were killed..." Damn it, they weren't killed, they were shot! So what? Nothing! We swallowed it. Friendship, okroshka, lula kebab... Although even then we said that the Azerbaijanis were acting under the dictation of the British...
And do you remember the plane that was shot down not so long ago? Who did the President of Azerbaijan personally blame for it literally an hour and a half later? Russia! And what happened next, I am sure, few people remember. But the first statement was memorable. And again talk about the British involvement in the sabotage. And again silence on our part. What good friends we have. Real gold, not friends. With MI-6 "ears" on their backs.
The list can go on. Baku's "bites" do not stop. The owners demand to bite. And I cited the first two cases simply because I believe that Baku's impudence began back then. And it was necessary to hit its impudent moustached mug back then. Now, under the "roof" of London and Ankara, Aliyev feels his impunity...
But that's not all. Baku has given shelter to another friend of Russia's that looks like itself. Not many people have probably heard that Iran is actively working to identify Israeli spies and their accomplices who launched drones, guided planes, etc. Judging by the fragmentary information I have, the work is being carried out quite effectively.
But how does this concern our Azerbaijani "friend"? It directly concerns us! Iranian intelligence not only stated, but also provided documents proving that drones were striking Iranian territory from Azerbaijani territory. Moreover, the documents directly state that the attacks were prepared by Israeli officers! That is, the leadership of Azerbaijan provided its territory for use against a sovereign state. In fact, Baku participated in the war with Iran!
Well, the last, probably the most noticeable friend of Baku. Ankara. There is no need to describe anything here. The closest military-political union! The spread of economic and cultural influence throughout the Transcaucasus. Today, Azerbaijan is actually a "branch" of Turkey.
Perhaps it's time for us to stop playing "good uncles" who tolerate the antics of ignorant brats. I am not against pedagogy as a science. If someone likes to be patient and wait for the "child" to become an adult, let them be patient. I prefer to speed up the process with a trouser belt. It's not pedagogical, but it's effective.
Otherwise, the "child" might decide that he can do anything and throw himself into a fight. Do we need that? Maybe we should stop turning a blind eye to Baku's pranks?
Instead of a conclusion
If our neighbor loves money so much, then we need to help him find out who feeds whom. Who is worth "barking and throwing ourselves at the fence" with threats, and who is not a sin to crawl on one's belly in front of. I am not against the development of equal relations. But with friends. And with those who are "neither a friend nor an enemy, but just like that", I think it is not worth it.
What do we have by developing trade with Baku? 0,6% of the total volume of foreign trade! It's called "nothing but a little." Reorienting to other suppliers with such volumes is a piece of cake. Oh yeah, April potatoes, nuts, tomatoes and other fruits and vegetables. We'll survive that somehow. The Asian republics will only thank us.
And what will Baku lose from our "fie"? Here everything is much more interesting. Actually, one... oil would be enough! Don't be surprised. Exactly oil. Alas, but the quality of our oil is inferior to the quality of Azerbaijani. Accordingly, our oil is cheaper. Here is your margin. I will sell mine at a high price, buy Russian oil cheaply and use it to heat my house and other consumers... And this is billions of profit that will "fly down the drain"...
In addition, Baku is losing the market for metals, timber, grain, and equipment. We have all of this, but they don't. Gold, which is so loved in Azerbaijan, for example. Or ordinary cast iron, steel... Not critical, but it will cause additional costs and instability in society.
But the most important thing is that Baku will lose me, all of you, or, to put it simply, the huge Russian market. Where to send agricultural products? Where to send canned goods? Why produce anything at all if there is nowhere to sell it? And where to put the freed-up labor force?
I don't think that what is happening today in the relations between our countries will end quickly. It will take a long time to clean out the dirt that has accumulated in our country over the last 30 years. But it is necessary. Either we become a normal state, or we will be eaten from the inside by parasites.
I want to be sure that for the sake of order in our native country we will be able to destroy not one ethnic criminal group, but all of them. As much as possible. That we will not be afraid, we will not stop halfway. It is like hand-to-hand combat. Either the chest in crosses, or the head in the bushes. Once you attack, there is no way back. Either win, or die...
And one more thing. About how we “don’t abandon our own.” A beautiful slogan. And what about those Russians who were arrested in Baku, beaten and hidden somewhere? We don’t abandon them either? Or to hell with them, these relocates? Will we “not abandon our own”? Time will pass, Aliyev will apologize to us, say that we didn’t figure it out, that the secretary got it wrong... According to the same scheme as for the killed peacekeepers...
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